Copa America 
/ Tim Vickery / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Brazil and Argentina will be key contenders in 2011
"History indicates that the 2011 winner will come from one of the big three - and there are sound reasons to maintain that belief."
The Copa America, which gets underway on July 1, is one of the world's greatest football tournaments and, with more teams than ever capable of winning, Betfair's new columnist Tim Vickery believes this one could be a cracker.
Football's oldest continental tournament, the Copa America has had an uneven history, at times held annually, at others falling into neglect.
One of the major points of interest at this year's tournament is that the Copa has found a perfect slot. Now staged every four years, the competition kicks off a new cycle of competitive action. After a year of friendlies, blooding new coaches and boosting the bank balance, the Copa is swiftly followed by the next set of South America's marathon World Cup qualifiers. This means that the teams will look to emerge from Argentina with a line up ready to battle for a place in Brazil in 2014.
All over the continent, coaches have been stressing that the Copa is primarily a warm up tournament. But, injuries aside, the 10 South American teams are at full strength - unlike the two teams invited from CONCACAF, Mexico and Costa Rica, who are bringing young, experimental squads - and once the action kicks off and the adrenalin kicks in then thoughts of using the Copa for mere preparation purposes will be put aside. More sides than ever before will be dreaming of lifting the trophy aloft on July 24.
This is the other aspect that makes the 2011 Copa so fascinating - the current strength in depth of South American international football. History shows that we can certainly think of a traditional big three in the Copa - between them Argentina [2.02], Brazil [3.35] and Uruguay [12.5] have won 36 of the 42 versions of the tournament - and it is worth noting that as far as the Copa is concerned, Uruguay have never been anything but a giant. Winners in 1995, finalists in 1999, the sky blues have reached the semis in each of the last three tournaments. Given their current strength, one conclusion here is that Uruguay [13.0] are worth backing.
Outside the big three, Peru [260.00], Paraguay [38.0], Bolivia [390.00] and Colombia [32.0] share the other six titles - either on home ground or in the period when the Copa had no fixed host (the sole exception is Paraguay's 1953 win in Peru, but officially it was the Paraguayan FA who organised the competition).
A look at the past, then, would seem to indicate that the 2011 winner will come from one of the big three - and there are sound reasons to maintain that belief. All look strong; hosts Argentina are under pressure to end a run of 18 years without a senior title. Brazil want to take advantage of their most serious competitive test before staging the next World Cup. Uruguay were semi-finalists in South Africa last year and have a settled side spearheaded by a phalanx of dangerous strikers.
But it would be unwise to overlook the lessons of the World Cup. Uruguay, for example, only qualified through the play-offs after finishing fifth in qualification. The evidence would seem clear; the introduction in 1996 of the marathon format of World Cup qualifiers has led to a dramatic improvement in the level of the less traditional teams. For the first time they have enjoyed the type of calendar that European teams take for granted - regular competitive games with guaranteed income, allowing them to hire top quality coaches and build a side.
The most dramatic example of this progress is Ecuador, three decades ago a South American version of Luxembourg, but part of the best 16 in the world in 2006. Venezuela's rise is no less spectacular - in the last round of the 2010 qualifiers they even managed a draw away to Brazil - who they beat comfortably in a 2008 friendly.
Chile thrilled the neutrals in the World Cup, and have a group of players who are both battle hardened and still with their best years ahead of them. The ever resilient Paraguay gave world champions Spain their toughest test in South Africa.
And countries who sat out South Africa are anxious to get back on track. Colombian football has such potential, which will come closer to being fulfilled if they can get the best out of a promising group of strikers. Peru have been in the doldrums for a while, but the signs are that in Sergio Markarian they have a top class coach capable of making them much more competitive.
So there could be some surprises along the way. Over the next few weeks the limbs will freeze through the fierce Argentine Winter. But with the strength in depth on display in the Copa, the blood will be aflame.
Despite winning four of the last five Copa America tournaments, Brazil are second favourites to be victorious in Argentina, primarily due to doubts over coach Mano Menezes....
It has been decades since Paraguay last seriously threatened in the Copa America, however last year's World Cup quarter-finals run offers hope of a sustained challenge....
1997 finalists Bolivia have achieved almost nothing in the Copa America since, but the appointment of promising coach Gustavo Quinteros gives them hope of a win at least....
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