Bundesliga Betting: Dortmund's title march could stutter

German Football / Kevin Hatchard / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is Robert Lewandowski and his Dortmund team-mates set for a slip-up?

"Dortmund are misfiring on the road, and the pressure of reaching the finish line in the title race could take its toll."

Kevin Hatchard looks at the comings and goings in the Bundesliga this week and, of course, the best bets from this weekend's matches

As has become the norm of late, this week's column begins with the Bundesliga's latest to-ing and fro-ing on the coaching front. As expected, St Pauli coach Holger Stanislawski has agreed to join Hoffenheim in the summer. Hoffe will be working with a lower budget than in recent seasons as owner Dietmar Hopp looks to cut costs, which sounds like a challenge that's right up Stanislawski's strasse.

Hamburg have given caretaker boss Michael Oenning a contract until the end of next season, which I find as mystifying as the appeal of The Only Way Is Essex.

HSV have won just one of their four games since Armin Veh was sacked, but Oenning's already talking about pushing for the title next season. Equally surprising was Frank Schafer's decision to reject Cologne's offer of a two-year deal. He'll return to coaching the reserves next term, despite lifting the club six points above the dropzone.

Borussia Monchengladbach [5.6] vs Borussia Dortmund [1.67], the draw [4.1]
Last weekend's action took leaders Dortmund to the brink of securing their first Bundesliga title since 2002. Closest challengers Bayer Leverkusen were taken apart 4-1 at Bayern Munich, and BVB went eight points clear by sweeping aside Freiburg 3-0. If Jurgen Klopp's effervescent Dortmund win Saturday's game at rock-bottom Monchengladbach, they'll be crowned champions should Bayer fail to beat Hoffenheim.
Dortmund have the best away record in the league, but lately they have struggled on their travels. A 3-1 win at Bayern Munich has been their only win in four road trips, a period in which they lost at Hoffenheim and needed a stoppage-time equaliser to snatch a draw at Hamburg.
There's no doubt that Monchengladbach look a better team under the stewardship of coach Lucien Favre, but the Foals are still seven points adrift of safety.
Their best chance of survival is attempting to finish third from bottom, and then trying to win the relegation playoff.
Since Favre took over from Michael Frontzeck, Monchengladbach have transformed their home form. They've won three of their last four home games, having not won in front of their own fans before Favre arrived.
Defensively Monchengladbach have tightened up. Under Frontzeck they shipped an eye-watering 56 goals in 22 games, but under Favre they've let in just eight goals in eight games.
Recommended Bets: Dortmund are misfiring on the road, and the pressure of reaching the finish line in the title race could take its toll. Monchengladbach are desperate for points and are much more resilient these days, so lay Dortmund at [1.67] and back under 2.5 goals at [2.5]

St Pauli [3.5] vs Werder Bremen [2.22], the draw [3.65]
Before Holger Stanislawski leaves for Hoffenheim, he must somehow pull his beloved St Pauli out of a tailspin which threatens to return them to Bundesliga Zwei after just one season. The Pirates have lost seven of their last eight matches, although last week they were desperately close to picking up what would have been a vital win at Wolfsburg. St Pauli were 2-1 up in the 89th minute, but they failed to pick up Jan Polak at a corner, and he headed in an equaliser.
The spectre of relegation has hung over Werder for much of what's been a troubling season, but a seven-match unbeaten run has taken them six points clear of the dropzone. Werder haven't kept a clean sheet since December 4, but they've shipped just eight goals in seven games.
Recommended Bets: Werder have drawn five of their last seven, including the last three. St Pauli are playing better than their recent run suggests, so back the draw at [3.65] and under 2.5 goals at [2.4]

Nurnberg [2.22] vs Mainz [3.55], the draw [3.55]
Sixth-placed Nurnberg are two points behind fifth-placed Mainz in the race for a Europa League spot, so this game is crucial. Both teams have been in patchy form - Nurnberg have won just one of their last four games, while Mainz have won just one in five.
Recommended Bet: At home Nurnberg have won nine, drawn one and lost five, an exact match with Mainz's record on the road making an away win attractively overpriced. Back Mainz to win at [3.55]

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How far can Dortmund's youngsters go?

German Football / Ben Lyttleton / 28 February 2011 / 1 Comments

Nuri Sahin and Mario Gotze are among Dortmund's young stars

"Manchester United have already been linked with Gotze, while Chelsea reportedly tried to buy defender Nevan Subotic in January, with Bayern going for Hummels at the same time."

Jurgen Klopp wants to take the German champions-elect to the very top. But can he hold on to his talented youngsters? Ben Lyttleton reports.

There was a changing of the guard in Germany this week, as Borussia Dortmund not only beat Bayern Munich 3-1 at the Allianz Arena, but they out-played, out-ran and out-fought their opponents to as good as end the Bundesliga title race. Dortmund are 12 points clear at the top of the table and in to [1.03] to win the league for the first time since 2002.

Bayern are now 16 back, with ten games to play, hence their [85.0] price. Their best chance of a trophy now rests in the German Cup: they are [1.57] to beat Schalke in Wednesday's semi-final first leg, and [1.38] to lift the trophy. After beating Inter 1-0 in the Champions League, they are [1.29] to reach the last eight and [12.5] to go one better than last season and win the European crown.

For Dortmund, the more significant question, given that the average age of the oufield players is just 22, the youngest in the division, is whether they can sustain their progress under coach Jurgen Klopp and become a new leading light in German football.

Certainly Klopp is committed to the project. ­ He signed a new contract earlier this season and said, "Why would I want to go anywhere else when I have this fantastic group here, where we all understand each other?" ­ But he would need the same from Dortmund's young group to sustain this momentum.

Among the stars that bigger clubs will be looking at this summer are Nuri Sahin, Mats Hummels, Mario Gotze and Kevin Grosskreutz. All combine the best elements of Dortmund's youth academy and scouting system and are key to the club's future success.

Sahin, who scored against Bayern on Saturday, burst onto the scene in 2005, breaking Lars Ricken's club record as the youngest player to represent Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Three months later, he was the youngest to score in the league, and the club closed ranks around the German-born Turkey international. "We are not Borussia Sahin," complained sporting director Michael Zorc at the time.

Sahin is still there but now 22, and with over 20 international caps to his name. The new Sahin that Zorc has uncovered is arguably even more exciting. Gotze played so well in a 4-1 win against Leverkusen in January that he was taken off to avoid his humiliated opponents injuring him. Gotze has stepped in for Shinji Kagawa, who scored 11 goals in the first half of the season but was inured on Asian Cup duty and will miss the rest of the season.

Grosskreutz joined as a free-agent from a second division club and totally outplayed Bayern's Bastian Schweinsteiger on Saturday. ­No-one runs more than the average 13.6 kilometres he covers in a game while Hummels went even further: a former-Bayern youth academy graduate, sold to Borussia for £3m, he has become the Bundesliga's outstanding centre-back over the last 18 months, and headed home the final goal in Dortmund's 3-1 win.

Klopp was justly delighted by the performance of his team, which made a mockery of Bayern president Uli Hoeness saying, "We're the better team: one on one, Dortmund has no chance," before the game. It was the first time Dortmund had won in Munich for almost 20 years.

But the new fear in Dortmund, before the side has even won this title, is if Zorc can keep everyone together to compete in the Champions League next season and to try and dominate the Bundesliga for the foreseeable future.

Three recent league winners, all of whom topped the table with dynamic young sides, have struggled after losing either the coach or key players: Bremen in 2004, Stuttgart in 2007 and Wolfsburg in 2009 have all flirted with relegation in recent seasons.

Manchester United have already been linked with Gotze, while Chelsea reportedly tried to buy defender Nevan Subotic in January, with Bayern going for Hummels at the same time. Striker Lucas Barrios, as well as midfielder Sven Bender and Kagawa, have also all been subjects of interest from so-called bigger clubs.

Süddeutsche Zeitung recently questioned whether some of these individuals would succeed alongside new team-mates: "Grosskreutz, Sahin, Götze or Marcel Schmelzer would surely do well elsewhere too, ­but as a group, especially, they seem to possess an inner light that could take them into the European top level."

The biggest fears, though, centre around Klopp, the professorial-looking coach who is already on the radar to replace Louis van Gaal at Bayern Munich and Joachim Loew as Germany coach after Euro 2012. If Klopp is as good as his word and does stay with BVB, then there could be a new contender in the running for next season's Champions League.

Jurgen Klopp wants to take the German champions-elect to the very top. But can he hold on to his talented youngsters? Ben Lyttleton reports....

It's Bayern Munich versus league leaders Borsussia Dortmund this weekend in a match which may well have a huge say in where the title goes this year. Kevin Hatchard discusses this match and the other best bets......

Borussia Dortmund versus St Pauli, Mainz versus Bayern Munich and Inter Milan versus Cagliari are among the games that Betfair customers are able to enjoy this weekend courtesy of Betfair Live Video.

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