The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Everton

"Arsenal have conceded just two goals in nine domestic home games"
Back an Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8

Michael Cox and Alan Thompson preview the intriguing Saturday afternoon FA Cup showdown between two sides desperate to end their ongoing trophy droughts...

Arsenal v Everton
Saturday 12:45, ITV1.
Match Odds: Arsenal 1.875/6, Everton 5.24/1, The Draw 3.711/4.

Following Arsenal's demoralising defeat at Stoke City last week, and their probable elimination from the European Cup this coming Tuesday against Bayern Munich, the FA Cup represents the Gunners' best chance of success this season. Everton are a dangerous opponent, but having already overcome Tottenham and Liverpool at the Emirates on their way to this Sixth Round stage, Arsener Wenger's side should be confident of another good result.

Wenger's team selection is unpredictable here, particularly in attacking positions. Ahead of the second leg against Bayern, it's not impossible that Wenger will rest a couple of players in preparation for that game - while they're 2-0 down, they've made impressive (if futile) second leg comebacks against Milan and Bayern in the past two seasons, and Wenger's major ambition remains a European Cup victory. However unlikely progression to the quarter-final in that competition may be, Wenger will have one eye on Tuesday night.

However, it's difficult to work out Arsenal's first-choice XI at the moment anyway. Mesut Ozil was left out of the squad for the win against Sunderland because of a slight injury, then was only on the bench at Stoke. Lukas Podolski has been in and out of the side, Santi Cazorla not quite at his best, Tomas Rosicky can't play every game, and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain still feels like a bonus rather than a regular

A trio of Oxlade-Chamberlain, Ozil and Cazorla is most likely, but don't rule out a surprise selection - perhaps even Serge Gnabry.

Martinez has generally used the FA Cup to play a couple of outsiders, and while the Spaniard is gunning for a second consecutive success in this competition, it's worth remembering he only truly took the FA Cup seriously with Wigan at this stage last year - coincidentally, with a win at Everton.

He's likely to rest first-choice goalkeeper Tim Howard and play Joel Robles instead - he conceded four on his last visit to the Emirates. Ross Barkley has been left out recently but will probably start against a side he's previously played well against, while Romelu Lukaku should return to the starting line-up, having made an instant impact as a substitute at West Ham last week, following a month-long absence. John Stones will continue if Phil Jagielka, as expected, misses out through injury.

Arsenal must find the right balance between midfield dominance, and getting men up in support of Olivier Giroud. Everton's previous performance at the Emirates, a 1-1 draw, was extremely impressive - they pressed high up the pitch and dominated possession inside the Arsenal half. Wenger will be keen to play as many 'passers' as possible to guard against this, but his side's best attacking moves in recent weeks have come when midfield runners have broken beyond the striker.

Arsenal lack genuine pace in behind the opposition without Theo Walcott, and therefore Everton might feel content to defend high up the pitch, pushing Arsenal away from their goal.

Everton will attempt to get the ball forward quickly to Lukaku, assuming he starts upfront - if not, expect Steven Naismith to work the channels more, and make interesting runs in behind the defence. Arsenal have a nice balance between Laurent Koscielny's pace and Per Mertesacker's positional qualities, however, and should be able to cope with the Belgian alone.

The problem will come from deeper, with right-sided Kevin Mirallas charging in behind, Steven Pienaar drifting inside and Barkley collecting the ball between the lines. Barkley varies his position excellently and find space between the lines and will cause ex-Everton midfield Mikel Arteta serious difficulties. He was twice superb in this fixture during 2013, and will be a goalscoring threat.

In the sides' previous meeting, a 1-1 draw, Everton pushed their full-backs extremely high up the pitch, with James McCarthy and Gareth Barry remaining very deep to form a defensive 'square' with the centre-backs, guarding against counter-attacks. Arsenal's wide midfielders must track back and protect their full-backs, or else Arsenal will become overloaded down the wings.

Arsenal's defensive record in domestic games at the Emirates has been excellent, however. Since Gerard Deolofeu's excellent equaliser in this fixture three months ago, Arsenal have conceded just two goals in nine domestic home games: a penalty from Steven Gerrard and a fine long-range strike from Sunderland's Emanuele Giaccherini. I'll back another Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8, but it's difficult to judge their level of attacking threat with an uncertain midfield selection.

Recommended Bet
Back an Arsenal clean sheet at 2.915/8

When the Gunners have played at home against sides in the top half of the league this season, they are undefeated (W3:D3), conceding only one goal though that did come against Everton in a 1-1 draw. All six games produced an under 2.5 goal result. In their last six home games they have scored 10 and conceded only once (Sunderland 4-1), and their only home league defeat remains the opening day shocker 1-3 against Aston Villa. Arsenal have made the most of home advantage in the FA Cup this season, eliminating Spurs (2-0), Coventry (4-0) and Everton’s neighbours Liverpool (2-1) in the 5th round.

Everton haven’t managed to beat any of the sides above them in the league thus far and from their five attempts they have scored twice while conceding 10. Their current away form doesn’t inspire much confidence either, no wins on the road in 2014 (five games). A boost for Everton will be the return of Romelu Lukaku, who got the only goal of the game last week, coming off the bench to hit the winner against West Ham.

March is season-defining for Arsenal - after this game they face Spurs in the league then Chelsea away, followed by Man City at the Emirates. In between the London derbies, they have to go to the Allianz Arena with a first leg 2-0 deficit to try and overcome. For me the FA Cup is their only realistic chance of a long overdue trophy and therefore I will be backing them to win this by dutching 2-0 @ 10 and 2-1 @ 9.6 giving approx dutched odds of 5.

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The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Everton

The absence of naturally pacey, direct players will harm Tottenham's attacking
Lay Spurs at 2.226/5

With Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon both unavailable, Michael Cox thinks Spurs will struggle for width...

Tottenham v Everton, Sunday 2:05, ESPN.

Match Odds: Tottenham 2.226/5, Everton 3.711/4, The Draw 3.55/2

Everton's trip to White Hart Lane is a fantastic opportunity for Everton - and in particular, David Moyes - to defy their critics, and put themselves firmly in the race for a Champions League slot.

A persistent criticism of Moyes is his defensive strategy away from home. Everton have the third-best home record in the Premier League, collecting 2.06 points per game - but that figure falls to just 1.29 on their travels. A victory here would see Everton move three points behind Tottenham, with a game in hand - although that contest is another tricky trip down to North London, against Arsenal.

Both sides have significant absences for this clash. Moyes is without both Marouane Fellaini and Steven Pienaar for the second consecutive match - with Kevin Mirallas also a doubt - but Andre Villas-Boas has a more serious problems. Jermain Defoe, Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are all unavailable, which creates a real problem for the Portuguese coach.

The issue is not necessarily the quality of replacements - Emmanuel Adebayor, Lewis Holtby, Clint Dempsey and Gylfi Sigurdsson is a decent attacking quartet - but the absence of naturally pacey, direct players. Villas-Boas' Spurs are a possession-based side, but are also intent on playing quick, 'vertical' football, as Villas-Boas puts it, breaking quickly before the opposition defence is able to organise itself into a solid, deep position. Bale, Lennon and Defoe are amongst the players that epitomise that approach best.

Bale has often wandered inside from his traditional role on the left flank this season, but Lennon has reliably provided width on the right. Without that duo, Spurs have an alarming lack of natural wide men - Holtby, Dempsey and Sigurdsson all prefer being deployed centrally, and might crowd the centre of the pitch.

Therefore, Tottenham must look for width and directness from elsewhere. The role of the full-backs will be key - both Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Kyle Walker must motor forward constantly to stretch the play - but Mousa Dembele is also important. Despite playing as a central midfielder, he's Spurs' best hope of an attacking player offering dribbling and forward running, and the Belgian must ensure his side's attacks flow quickly.

Moyes remains a very reactive manager, and will be fully aware of how Spurs' absences will affect Villas-Boas' gameplan. Expect to see Everton defending even narrower than usual, and Moyes will hope Tottenham's attack-minded full-backs leave space for Everton to break into. Mirallas would be an extremely useful player in that situation, so his fitness is key to Everton's attacking chances.

In Fellaini's continued absence, there's a good chance Moyes will play  two strikers - as he did in the 1-0 home win over Stoke City last week. Nikica Jelavic isn't in good form, but is likely to spearhead the side with Victor Anichebe playing behind him, and told to drop back into midfield without the ball. Anichebe, Mirallas and Coleman will be crucial on the break, while Jelavic might find himself playing as a functional target man, trying to bring others into play rather than being a significant goal threat himself.

Everton must attack here - Moyes would usually be happy with a point in this fixture, but to continue his challenge for a Champions League slot, an away win is vital. With Spurs tired after a draining Europa League draw with Basel on Thursday and missing key players for their usual gameplan, Everton should have a decent chance of a result, so I'll lay Spurs at 2.226/5.

There's also a decent chance of both sides scoring - that's happened in five of Spurs' last six matches, and in the vast majority of Everton's away fixtures, too. 1.855/6 is a good price to back in that market.

Recommended bets:
Lay Spurs at 2.226/5
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.855/6

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Opta Stats: Tottenham v Everton

"Five of the last six Premier League clashes between these two teams have been won by the home team (one draw). Tottenham are 2.265/4 to win the game."

Spurs face a tough assignment against Everton, as they try to secure a top four spot and challenge in Europe. Opta have all the vital statistics. 

Five of the last six Premier League clashes between these two teams have been won by the home team (one draw). Tottenham are 2.265/4 to win the game.

Everton have won three consecutive league games for the first time this season, but all three of these matches have been played at Goodison Park. The Toffees are 3.65n/a to win a fourth consecutive game.

David Moyes' side are without a win in their last three matches away from home in the Premier League (L2 D1). The draw can be backed at 3.45n/a.

Tottenham have won four of their last six league matches, but just one of their last three (L2). You can lay a Spurs win at 2.285/4.

Nikica Jelavic has scored in both of his league appearances against Tottenham Hotspur. However, the Croatian has scored just once in his last 14 Premier League appearances. Jelavic is 3.814/5 to find the net.

No side have scored the first goal in more Premier League matches this season than Tottenham Hotspur (19). Spurs are 1.84/5 to score the first goal.

Jan Vertonghen has now scored four goals in his last five appearances (all comps) for Tottenham Hotspur. Vertonghen is available at 7.06/1 to find the net.

No side have struck the woodwork more times this season than Everton (19; level with Man Utd) in the Premier League. Spurs are 2.915/8 to keep a clean sheet.

No player has created more goalscoring chances than Leighton Baines (96) across Europe's top five leagues this season. Everton are 1.42/5 to score a goal.

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Weekend Injuries: Everton left vulnerable without Jags

"Moyes' side haven't kept a clean sheet for eight matches and their quest for another against Wigan will suffer in the England man's absence."
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.8810/11  

Phil Jagielka, Lee Cattermole and Aaron Lennon will all be big misses for their clubs if ruled out this weekend...

Phil Jagielka - Everton v Wigan (Saturday, 12:45, ITV)
David Moyes was left spitting feathers after Adam Le Fondre's overzealous challenge ended the centre back's involvement in their win over Reading after just five minutes. Jagielka was stretchered off and has had to undergo surgery to stitch up a nasty gash to his ankle. This was part of a double defensive blow for the Everton manager who lost goalkeeper Tim Howard after another collision during the Oldham game. Jagielka has been a rock for the Toffees this season, missing just one game for the Merseysiders, which they lost to Leeds in the League Cup. Moyes' side haven't kept a clean sheet for eight matches and their quest for another against Wigan will suffer in the England man's absence.
Recommended Bet: Back both teams to score @ 1.8810/11

Lee Cattermole - QPR v Sunderland (Saturday, 15:00)
Sunderland's combative midfielder has endured a season blighted by injury, limiting him to just 14 Black Cat appearances to date. Cattermole is currently on the sidelines due to an ongoing knee problem which he aggravated against Arsenal on February 9. While the midfielder has his critics, mainly due to his disciplinary problems, Martin O'Neill's side have been seriously lacking someone with his drive and determination as they continue to slide in the wrong direction. Sunderland are in dire form ahead of their trip to Loftus Road, losing three of their last four, and Cattermole is just the sort of character they need against a QPR side fighting for their lives.
Recommended Bet: Back QPR to win @ 2.35/4

Aaron Lennon - Liverpool v Tottenham (Sunday, 16:00, Sky Sports 1)
While Gareth Bale continues to hog the limelight for his virtuoso displays, Lennon's own sublime form has been a little overshadowed. After a standout scoring performance against Arsenal last Sunday, Spurs' diminutive number seven was instrumental yet again in his side's emphatic 3-0 thumping of Inter on Thursday night before getting subbed off late on clutching a hamstring. He's now a real doubt to be available for their trip to Anfield on Sunday. This is a blow for Andre Villas-Boas, but one player who should benefit is Gylfi Sigurdsson. The Icelander is in the middle of a promising return to form, scoring twice in his last three games, and should be guaranteed another start against Liverpool.
Recommended Bet: Back Gylfi Sigurdsson to score @ 5.39/2

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Everton v Wigan: A tighter game than league positions suggest

"Wigan failed to find the net against Liverpool last weekend, but the Reds were the first team to keep a clean sheet against them in ten matches."

It's an all Premier League FA Cup clash between Everton and Wigan Athletic. Dan Fitch is expecting a tight game and goals from both sides...

Everton v Wigan
Saturday, KO 12:45, Live on ITV 1

Wigan take a break from their relegation worries, as they attempt to reach the semi-final stage of the FA Cup for the first time in their history.

They face an Everton side that are more familiar with the business end of the competition, yet are still looking to land David Moyes with the first trophy of his reign.

Having been drawn at home, Everton are heavy favourites as you'd expect. The Toffees are 1.4640/85, with the draw at 4.94/1 and Wigan at 8.415/2.

If there's little value in the home win, there might be some to be found in the draw. The Opta stats reveal that along with Stoke, Everton have drawn more Premier League games than any other club this season (12). A whopping six of those draws have come at home.

Meanwhile, Wigan are a better side away than they are at home. The Latics have gained ten points at home, compared to 14 on the road, which has included four wins.

The two games between the sides this season have been relatively tight. In the more recent game at Goodison Park, it took until the second half for Everton to establish a lead, before eventually running out as 2-1 winners.

In the reverse fixture, Wigan twice took the lead, only for Everton to peg them back on both occasions and force the 2-2 draw. 

There's definitely value in backing the draw, from a trading perspective at least, but a safer bet can probably be found in the goals markets. I like the look of the 1.8810/11 for both teams to score. Wigan failed to find the net against Liverpool last weekend, but the Reds were the first team to keep a clean sheet against them in ten matches.

Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 1.728/11, with unders at 2.3611/8. I think that overs is a fairly safe bet, but as the price is a little skinny, we'll stick to backing both teams to score. Everton will be without the injured Phil Jagielka and they simply don't have the squad to replace such a key figure with a player of similar quality.

That could make Wigan's Arouna Kone a decent bet in the goalscorer markets. The Ivorian has scored in both of the games against Everton this season and has scored four goals in his last three games for Wigan.

Kone is currently priced at 4.57/2 to score at any time and 12.5n/a to score the first goal. Those prices should get a bit higher come closer to kick-off and look decent value.

This is the first time that either side has faced a Premier League opponent in this season's FA Cup. Ultimately I expect Everton to progress, but it will be no cakewalk. David Moyes' side are 5.95/1 to win the cup, with Wigan at a distant 42.041/1.

Recommended Bets

Back Both teams to Score @ 1.8810/11
Back Arouna Kone To Score @ 4.57/2 or higher

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Premier League Stats: Clean sheet crucial for Moyes' Everton

"Liverpool, then, score in 75% of derbies and, when they do, their win rate is 80%."

Andrew Atherley explains why a clean sheet is crucial if Everton want to win the Merseyside Derby, and why Liverpool don't lose when they score in this fixture...

Everton are the best team on Merseyside but to prove it in Sunday's derby game they might well have to break one of the most intriguing result patterns in English football.

It is a rare occurrence for Everton to have bragging rights, whether in the derby games or overall in terms of league position. Yet they finished above Liverpool in last season's Premier League table - for only the second time in the 10 full seasons since David Moyes took charge at Goodison Park - and they are even further ahead this season.

When it comes to the derby matches, however, Moyes's Everton have struggled to match their red rivals. In 20 Premier League derbies under Moyes, Everton have won just three and lost 12. That includes a pair of defeats last season, by an aggregate of 5-0, even when Liverpool were comparatively struggling.

But that's not the most interesting part of the results pattern. The remarkable thing is that the derby results divide neatly into two segments: matches in which Everton kept a clean sheet and those in which Liverpool scored. When Everton have kept a clean sheet in a league derby under Moyes, which is a fairly rare occurrence, their record is won three and drawn two out of five.

Whenever Everton have conceded, though, their win chance has gone west across the Irish Sea. Liverpool's record when scoring against Moyes's team is won 12, drawn three and lost none out of 15.

Liverpool, then, score in 75% of derbies and, when they do, their win rate is 80%.

Pretty compelling statistics that indicate a simple starting point when assessing Sunday's game: do you think Liverpool will score?

In recent seasons, it's been a fairly simple question to answer - hence Liverpool's strong derby record. This season, Liverpool's scoring record has been more hit and miss than usual - three blanks in their first eight Premier League games.

But it is worth noting that the only team to have conceded against Brendan Rodgers' Liverpool and beaten them in the Premier League is Manchester United, with a 2-1 win at Anfield (both United goals were scored after Liverpool were reduced to 10 men). The rest of Liverpool's record when scoring is won two, drawn two.

Everton, meanwhile, still rely on a clean sheet for their best results. They have won only two of the five Premier League games in which they have conceded this season and those were against bottom-four sides Aston Villa and Southampton.

Against the elite sides, Moyes clearly understands the importance of a clean sheet. Since the start of last season, Everton have won four out of 13 against the big six - all to nil - and have taken only one point from the nine games in which they have conceded.

That helps to explain why so many Everton v big six matches have under 2.5 goals (10 out of 13 since the start of last season, including all seven at Goodison Park). Under 2.5 Goals must appeal on Sunday at 1.9310/11.

As usual, then, there is more form available than a straight reading of the league table. What we have in Everton is a generally low-scoring side - especially against the better teams - that puts great faith in clean sheets, while on the other side are Liverpool with a decent scoring record even now and a good win rate when they do find the net.

Liverpool to win at 2.915/8 or off 0 on the Asian handicap at 1.991/1 have to be considered.

If Liverpool score, the stats say they will be hard to beat. The last time the Reds scored in a league derby and lost was way back in November 1995 - no wonder Moyes sets so much store in clean sheets.

Pick of the stats

Chelsea v Manchester United
Since Jose Mourinho left Chelsea, nine of the 12 domestic meetings between these sides have had over 2.5 goals.

Southampton v Tottenham
Seven of Southampton's eight games have had over 3.5 goals

Recommended Bets

Liverpool off 0 on Asian handicap v Everton at 1.991/1
Chelsea v Manchester United over 2.5 goals at 1.758/11

*****

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The Big Match Tactical View: Everton v Manchester United

Antonio Valencia might play an unfamiliar right-back role
Valencia to be shown a card at 4.03/1

With all eyes on Robin van Persie, Michael Cox fancies some goals at Goodison Park.

Everton v Manchester United, Monday 20:00, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: Everton 4.57/2, Manchester United 1.9310/11, The Draw 3.7511/4.

Rarely have Manchester United made such a landmark signing as Robin van Persie, yet rarely have there been so many question marks about how Sir Alex Ferguson will incorporate a new signing. With Shinji Kagawa also arriving and stating his intention to play behind the man striker, in the role played by Wayne Rooney last season, the main tactical interest from this match will be the positioning of Manchester United's attackers.

Van Persie starting United's opening game would be something of a surprise, considering he's only had a couple of days training with his new teammates. Ferguson might take the opportunity to save Wayne Rooney for future matches, however, on the ground where he generally gets a hostile reception since his departure eight years ago. Van Persie and Kagawa would be a fascinating combination.

David Moyes has recruited some new attacking players this summer, with Steven Naismith, Steven Pienaar and Kevin Mirallas all arriving to offer genuine attacking threat from the wings, something Everton have often lacked in recent seasons. Mirallas will not play in this game, however, and I expect Moyes to be relatively cautious, playing with two deep banks of four, and probably allowing United to dominate possession.

Mirallas' sheer speed will give them another dimension, but for now Nikica Jelavic is clearly their main goal threat. He specialises in making clever runs towards the near post to meet crosses and cut-backs, something United's centre-backs must be wary of - with injury problems at the back, rumours suggest Michael Carrick might be deployed in that role. He's filled in at centre-back before, but he was responsible for the goal England conceded against Italy in midweek, when Daniele De Rossi steamed in at the near post ahead of him at a corner. If Carrick starts, Jelavic will look to get across the front of him.

United's injury crisis - plus Rafael's participation at the Olympics - also means Antonio Valencia looks set to start at right-back. Again, this is a role he's played before, but he's not always looked comfortable in that position. United's sheer number of attacking players might mean he's used more at right-back this season and becomes more established in that role, but for now Everton should look to attack him as often as possible. Pienaar's relationship with left-back Leighton Baines is excellent, and I think Valencia will be in danger of a booking if he plays right-back. Back him to be shown a card at around 4.03/1.

Everton have their own injury problems, with both Marouane Fellaini and Darron Gibson doubtful. These might be exaggerated stories, however - Newcastle seemed to do something similar ahead of their game against Tottenham - but the absence of those two players would only further United's chances of dominating possession.

The corners market is difficult to predict without knowing the identities of the wide players, so I'll steer clear of that market. Instead, I quite fancy over 2.5 goals here. There have been a couple of crazy matches between these two in the past couple of seasons - a 3-3 and a 4-4 - and there were some big scorelines on the opening weekend of the Premier League season, as if defensive organisation was still lacking after a long summer break. Everton generally start the season slowly and United have those defensive concerns, so at 2.0621/20, I fancy three goals or more.

Recommended bets:
Antonio Valencia to be shown a card at 4.03/1 if he starts at right-back
Over 2.5 goals at 2.0621/20

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Premier League: Uplifting summer so far for Everton

"Steven Naismith isn’t as prolific as former Gers team-mate Nikica Jelavic, however if he enjoys a similar impact will be loved."

David Moyes stayed, Steven Naismith has signed and Steven Pienaar should follow, but will Everton be able to build on that momentum?

One of the Premier League's cruellest traditions is for Everton to endure an uncertain summer which neatly transitions into a diabolical start to the season, so debilitating that it often takes until late December to recover.

To quite what extent the painful transfer windows are responsible for such sluggish starts is unclear, but they certainly can't help, so the lack of trauma accumulated thus far this pre-season has to be viewed as a positive.

Everton fans are well trained to expect star players to be linked with moves away, yet there was a brief threat of the ultimate destabiliser last month as Tottenham sacked Harry Redknapp and David Moyes was named the initial frontrunner.

The lack of glamour surrounding Goodison Park that must at times feel like a curse on this occasion worked in their favour though as Andre Villas-Boas was chosen instead, and there have been further encouraging developments since.

One was the arrival of one of the most well regarded Rangers deserters, Steven Naismith, on a free transfer. The versatile forward isn't as prolific as former Gers team-mate Nikica Jelavic, however if he enjoys a similar impact will be loved.

Steven Pienaar, the other man close to securing a switch, doesn't need to put any work into gaining the affection of supporters having excelled in his first two stints with the Toffees.

There was doubt over whether limited funds and Tottenham's change of boss would ruin Moyes' plans to make his successful loan return permanent, but Sky Sports claim that an agreement on a £5 million deal is imminent. Once a fee is fixed with Spurs, the rest should be a formality, with Pienaar keen on a reunion.

As promising as retaining Moyes and sorting two decent signings is, the big worry for Everton any summer is losing key men, and though that hasn't happened yet, reports suggest that Manchester United will attempt to persuade them to part with Leighton Baines.

But no matter how gruesome the first half of the season proves, Everton always seem to survive the slump, recording six straight top-eight finishes. They haven't quite made it into the top six in their last three campaigns, and are 5.14/1 to do so in 2012/13.

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FA Cup Opta Stats: Sunderland v Everton

Opta / Richard / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nikica Jelavic scored the second goal in Everton's 2-0 win at Swansea

The Opta stats suggest Everton are still on track to meet Liverpool in the last four, despite being held at home...

Everton have made it to the last eight more often than any other side in FA Cup history (41).

These sides have been drawn together 11 times before in the FA Cup, with Everton progressing seven times and Sunderland four.

In FA Cup matches against Sunderland, the Toffees have alternated between scoring one goal and scoring three. For this sequence to continue, they will have to score three on Tuesday night.

The two previous meetings between the two sides this season (one in the Cup, one in the league, have both ended in a 1-1 scoreline.

The two teams have played against each other in three previous FA Cup replays, with Everton winning all three and scoring a total of 11 goals in the process. However, the last of those replay clashes came all the way back in 1958.

Attacking midfielder Tim Cahill has bagged a total of three goals in Everton's last five games against the Black Cats (in all competitions).

Everton are unbeaten in 16 meetings with Sunderland in all competitions (11 wins).

Sunderland have won four of their last six FA Cup replay games, losing just one and progressing on penalties in the other.

In all competitions, Everton have lost just one of their last five away games.

Sunderland have lost just one of their 10 home games in all competitions under Martin O'Neill.

On loan Nicklas Bendtner has hit three goals in his last five games for Sunderland (in all competitions).

This is not a fixture that favours the away side and the Opta stats indicate Bolton's cup run is to end here......

Chelsea may have to rely on their home form again to see them progress......

Robin van Persie, Junior Hoilett, Gylfi Sigurdsson and perhaps even Sylvan Ebanks-Blake could score this weekend, judging by these Opta trends......

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Sunderland v Everton Bets: This could go the distance

FA Cup / Jamie "The Pacman" Pacheco / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Tim'll fix it. Cahill loves playing Sunderland.

"Still, I can’t ignore that stat that says Sunderland haven’t found a way to beat Everton over the years so a lay of the hosts at 2.5 is the bet."

These are two of the most evenly-matched teams in the country and splitting them isn't easy, so bet accordingly. But if it goes all the way to penalties, there's only one team to side with, says Jamie Pacheco.

Match Odds

There's not much to choose between these two whichever way you look at it. I'm not sure who I'd take between Martin O'Neill and David Moyes as a manager. They're tied on points in the league table; they have squads of similar strength; they both won at the weekend; and they drew 1-1 on both occasions they've played this season, the latest of which was at Goodison Park ten days ago. The same match that means we've got a replay here. Furthermore, Opta tell us that it's three draws from the last four between these two.

But a further stat from our number crunching-friends sticks out like a sore thumb. Everton have gone on an amazing run of 16 matches without tasting defeat against their north-eastern opponents. Even if we consider that O'Neill is probably a better manager than anyone else Sunderland had in charge during that time and that this probably a stronger XI than they've had throughout most of that period, that record against Tuesday night's opponents must be at the back of hosts' minds somewhere.

Moyes' decision to play a weakened side against Liverpool to spare his players for their big FA Cup tie four days later backfired in more ways than one. Not only did he lose that match convincingly but the same players who had been given the night off looked rusty rather than rested for the FA Cup game.

No repeat of that this time round. The Scot picked his best possible team for Saturday's trip to Swansea and his reward was a 2-0 win over a side who had won their last four league matches, which included the scalp of then league leaders Manchester City. I'd expect a very similar team to start again on Tuesday night, though Marouane Felliani might get the nod over Darren Gibson in the heart of midfield, just to add a little more bite.

Lee Cattermole is still suspended after his sending-off at home to Newcastle for showing a little too much bite and an equal amount of stupidity and lack of self-restraint. Whoever Moyes decides to play at right-back (either Tony Hibbert or Phil Neville) would be well-advised to drink a nice mug of camomile tea before they go to bed or take something else to help them sleep. The prospect of having to contain the impressive James McClean doesn't make for a restful night's sleep.

Still, I can't ignore that stat that says Sunderland haven't found a way to beat Everton over the years so a lay of the hosts at [2.5] is the bet.

Method of Victory

With the draw such a strong runner in terms of the outcome after 90 minutes, it may pay to speculate as to what might happen if this game does go beyond 90 minutes. The team who is distinctly fitter or has superior options on the bench has the better chance of winning it.

But once again, we find it hard to split these two teams when it comes to that either, so I'm not sure we'd find a winner after even 120 minutes. Onto penalties we go and here it's Everton who are clearly the stronger of the two. In 2009 they knocked Manchester United out of the FA on penalties at Wembley and last year they knocked out Chelsea in the same competition at Stamford Bridge, again on penalties. Sunderland's memories of shoot-outs aren't so great. In 2009 they went out of the Carling Cup by this method against Aston Villa and in 2004 they fell at the final hurdle when up against Ian Dowie's Crystal Palace for the right to be promoted to the Premier League. Tim Howard's experience of handling the occasion may be the difference if this match does indeed go the distance. Everton are [14.0] to win on penalties.

First Goalscorer

Gone are the days when Tim Cahill seemed to score every other week with a trademark header after a late run into the box. His return of just one goal from almost 30 starts in the league is proof of that. But he certainly likes playing Sunderland and has scored three times against them in his last five matches, including the equaliser ten days ago in this same fixture. He'll be around [10.0] to open the scoring which is a far better price than we would have got a few years back and it's worth taking the chance he can come up with the goods when it most matters.

Best Bet

Lay Sunderland @ [2.5]

Recommended Bet

Back Everton to win on penalties in the Qualifying Method market

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Opta Stats: Wigan v Everton

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 02 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

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Wigan scored from their only shot on target against Everton at Goodison Park earlier this season.

Everton have won just one of their last five Premier League away games (W1 D2 L2).

The Latics have won none of their last nine Premier League home games (W0 D3 L6).

The last three times Wigan have taken the lead against Everton, the Toffees have come back to earn seven points with two wins and a draw.

Wigan have only won one of their six home Premier League games against Everton (W1 D2 L3).

Wigan have conceded the joint-most penalties in the Premier League this season (8) and Steven Caldwell the most of any player (4).

Three of the four penalties Gary Caldwell has conceded this season have been saved by Ali Al-Habsi.

Everton have only scored eight goals in their last 11 Premier League games and never more than once in a game in that run.

74% of the goals Everton have scored have been netted in the second half, the highest proportion in the top flight.

Wigan have scored fewer headed goals than any other team in the Premier League (1).

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FA Cup Opta Stats: Everton v Fulham (and all D-H ties)

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

2008-09 runners-up Everton have a dismal FA Cup record against Fulham

Opta explain why Everton are vulnerable at home to Fulham in the FA Cup fourth round and offer guidance for betting on Derby v Stoke and Hull v Crawley too...

Derby v Stoke

Derby and Stoke have met three times in the FA Cup with the Rams winning two and the Potters once, but they haven't met in the competition since 1938.

Stoke have won their last three FA Cup matches away from home.

Derby have been eliminated the last five times that they have drawn top flight opponents in the FA Cup

The last time the two sides met was in the 2008-09 Carling Cup when Derby 1-0 at the Britannia Stadium courtesy of a last-minute penalty.

The Rams are without a win in 13 FA Cup meetings with sides from a higher division (D3 L10): their last win was against Sheffield United in 1986.

Stoke have lost only one of their last 15 FA Cup games against sides from a lower division.

Everton v Fulham

Everton have won the last 18 straight home league games against Fulham, but in four FA Cup matches at home they have drawn twice and lost twice to the Cottagers.

Fulham have drawn the Toffees four times in the FA Cup and knocked them out on each occasion, three times after a replay.

Everton have been knocked out of the FA Cup at Goodison Park in four of the last five seasons; in the other campaign, they were beaten finalists.

The Whites have won just one of 14 FA Cup matches away from home against top flight opponents when they themselves have been in the highest tier of English football.

Everton are without a win in their last five FA Cup games against fellow Premier League sides (D3 L2).

Fulham have progressed on the last 10 occasions that they have played in the fourth round.

Hull v Crawley

This will be the first-ever meeting between Hull City and Crawley.

Hull are playing in the fourth round for only the second time since 1989.

The Tigers have won their last three matches in the fourth round of the FA Cup.

Since 1997, Hull have lost only one of their 11 FA Cup matches against sides from a lower division (W7 D3).

Nick Barmby's side have scored at least twice in their last four FA Cup games at home.

Since the start of last season, Crawley have lost just one of their nine games in the FA Cup proper (0-1 at Old Trafford), winning seven.

Crawley have won four of their last five FA Cup away games.

Matt Tubbs is the second-top scorer in the FA Cup proper since the start of last season (seven goals).

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Opta Stats: Chelsea v Everton

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

It has been a while since David Moyes has been beaten at Stamford Bridge

Everton have a fine recent record against Chelsea, who have been uncharacteristically leaky at the back. Could there be a shock at Stamford Bridge?

No team in the Premier League has conceded fewer shots on target than Chelsea (25).

Frank Lampard has scored four goals from just five shots on target in the Premier League this season.

Tim Howard has only conceded two goals from the last seven penalties faced, making four saves.

Chelsea have won only one of the last nine Premier League meetings with Everton, drawing six of the remaining eight encounters.

Louis Saha has scored five goals in six appearances in all competitions for Everton against Chelsea.

Didier Drogba has scored seven goals in his last nine Premier League matches against Everton.

Chelsea have won nine and lost none of their last 10 Premier League games at Stamford Bridge, but have gone five games without a clean sheet on home soil.

Everton have gone 16 games at Stamford Bridge since their last Premier League victory (W0 D9 L7), but the last five games in a row have all been draws. No Premier League fixture has ever seen six consecutive draws.

The Londoners have gone six games without a clean sheet and they have not had a run of seven without a shutout since September 2003.

Everton have won none of their last eight Premier League trips to London, drawing six.

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