Everton v Wigan: A tighter game than league positions suggest

"Wigan failed to find the net against Liverpool last weekend, but the Reds were the first team to keep a clean sheet against them in ten matches."

It's an all Premier League FA Cup clash between Everton and Wigan Athletic. Dan Fitch is expecting a tight game and goals from both sides...

Everton v Wigan
Saturday, KO 12:45, Live on ITV 1

Wigan take a break from their relegation worries, as they attempt to reach the semi-final stage of the FA Cup for the first time in their history.

They face an Everton side that are more familiar with the business end of the competition, yet are still looking to land David Moyes with the first trophy of his reign.

Having been drawn at home, Everton are heavy favourites as you'd expect. The Toffees are 1.4640/85, with the draw at 4.94/1 and Wigan at 8.415/2.

If there's little value in the home win, there might be some to be found in the draw. The Opta stats reveal that along with Stoke, Everton have drawn more Premier League games than any other club this season (12). A whopping six of those draws have come at home.

Meanwhile, Wigan are a better side away than they are at home. The Latics have gained ten points at home, compared to 14 on the road, which has included four wins.

The two games between the sides this season have been relatively tight. In the more recent game at Goodison Park, it took until the second half for Everton to establish a lead, before eventually running out as 2-1 winners.

In the reverse fixture, Wigan twice took the lead, only for Everton to peg them back on both occasions and force the 2-2 draw. 

There's definitely value in backing the draw, from a trading perspective at least, but a safer bet can probably be found in the goals markets. I like the look of the 1.8810/11 for both teams to score. Wigan failed to find the net against Liverpool last weekend, but the Reds were the first team to keep a clean sheet against them in ten matches.

Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 1.728/11, with unders at 2.3611/8. I think that overs is a fairly safe bet, but as the price is a little skinny, we'll stick to backing both teams to score. Everton will be without the injured Phil Jagielka and they simply don't have the squad to replace such a key figure with a player of similar quality.

That could make Wigan's Arouna Kone a decent bet in the goalscorer markets. The Ivorian has scored in both of the games against Everton this season and has scored four goals in his last three games for Wigan.

Kone is currently priced at 4.57/2 to score at any time and 12.5n/a to score the first goal. Those prices should get a bit higher come closer to kick-off and look decent value.

This is the first time that either side has faced a Premier League opponent in this season's FA Cup. Ultimately I expect Everton to progress, but it will be no cakewalk. David Moyes' side are 5.95/1 to win the cup, with Wigan at a distant 42.041/1.

Recommended Bets

Back Both teams to Score @ 1.8810/11
Back Arouna Kone To Score @ 4.57/2 or higher

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Follow The Money: We Strongly Suggest you lay this horse

"With a 159-day absence to overcome and the stable relatively quiet it could pay to take him on today."

Lay Strongly Suggested @ 3.259/4 Ffos Las 14:10

Today's selections can be found at Bath, Ffos Las and York

We start at York and day two of the Ebor meeting and in the opening 6f Yearling Stakes at 14:00 there has been decent money for Rocky Ground who has come in to 4.03/1 from 5.14/1. This Roger Varian-trained colt has shown a good amount of ability in his two starts to date; firstly winning comfortably on debut then last time going down by a head to a decent sort. Both of those were over 6f on good to firm ground so today's conditions are in his favour and as one of the least experienced in this line up it is reasonable to expect some more improvement with some possible Group race entries to fulfil if successful.

Next we go jumping at Ffos Las and in the 2m6f Maiden Hurdle at 14:10, Strongly Suggested has been easy to having drifted out to 3.259/4 from 2.47/5. Hailing from the Jonjo O'Neill yard, he just about sets the standard in this field. Having won his bumper on debut last September he went on to perform with credit in four novice hurdles before again running well on handicap debut last time out to finish fourth. Today's race is easier but a couple of rivals are not far behind him on form and with a 159-day absence to overcome and the stable relatively quiet it could pay to take him on today.

Finally we go to Bath and in the 5f Handicap at 15:25 there has been good support for Juarla who has shortened in to 7.26/1 from 13.4n/a. A look at recent form would probably be enough to put people off as would the fact he has yet to win on turf but his current rating of 53 is very manageable having won off 60 and place second off 66 last year. All his best form has been over today's trip so his run last time out over 7f can be ignored and the money down suggests better is expected with place money up for grabs at least.

Recommended Bets
Back Rocky Ground @ 4.03/1 York 14:00
Lay Strongly Suggested @ 3.259/4 Ffos Las 14:10
Back Juarla @ 7.26/1 Bath 15:25

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