Showing posts with label strongly. Show all posts
Showing posts with label strongly. Show all posts

August 24, 2012

Follow The Money: We Strongly Suggest you lay this horse

"With a 159-day absence to overcome and the stable relatively quiet it could pay to take him on today."

Lay Strongly Suggested @ 3.259/4 Ffos Las 14:10

Today's selections can be found at Bath, Ffos Las and York

We start at York and day two of the Ebor meeting and in the opening 6f Yearling Stakes at 14:00 there has been decent money for Rocky Ground who has come in to 4.03/1 from 5.14/1. This Roger Varian-trained colt has shown a good amount of ability in his two starts to date; firstly winning comfortably on debut then last time going down by a head to a decent sort. Both of those were over 6f on good to firm ground so today's conditions are in his favour and as one of the least experienced in this line up it is reasonable to expect some more improvement with some possible Group race entries to fulfil if successful.

Next we go jumping at Ffos Las and in the 2m6f Maiden Hurdle at 14:10, Strongly Suggested has been easy to having drifted out to 3.259/4 from 2.47/5. Hailing from the Jonjo O'Neill yard, he just about sets the standard in this field. Having won his bumper on debut last September he went on to perform with credit in four novice hurdles before again running well on handicap debut last time out to finish fourth. Today's race is easier but a couple of rivals are not far behind him on form and with a 159-day absence to overcome and the stable relatively quiet it could pay to take him on today.

Finally we go to Bath and in the 5f Handicap at 15:25 there has been good support for Juarla who has shortened in to 7.26/1 from 13.4n/a. A look at recent form would probably be enough to put people off as would the fact he has yet to win on turf but his current rating of 53 is very manageable having won off 60 and place second off 66 last year. All his best form has been over today's trip so his run last time out over 7f can be ignored and the money down suggests better is expected with place money up for grabs at least.

Recommended Bets
Back Rocky Ground @ 4.03/1 York 14:00
Lay Strongly Suggested @ 3.259/4 Ffos Las 14:10
Back Juarla @ 7.26/1 Bath 15:25

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July 18, 2012

The Open Three-Ball Tips: Pod to start strongly on day one at Royal Lytham

"Padraig Harrington looks like he's hitting peak form at the right time."

2pts Back Padraig Harrington @ 2.01/1

Dan Geraghty is spoilt this week as the hard-working boys in Betfair Market Operations have loaded every single Open Championship three-ball for him to pick from. That means he has no excuses for getting it wrong of course, so how do these six selections look to you?

There's quite a bandwagon forming for Padraig Harrington. Even the Irishman himself has been quoted as saying he's value at 20.019/1 to win the whole thing. I certainly wouldn't put anyone off backing the likeable Irishman. He's been in fantastic form recently - I was particularly impressed with his effort at the recent Irish Open - and he looks like he's hitting peak form at the right time. Rickie Fowler and little known Austrian Manuel Trappel have their work cut out to stay with Pod on day one.

While Steve Stricker was dealing with the disappointment of failing to complete a four-timer at the John Deere Classic in the USA this week, Anders Hansen was completing his second fine performance in as many weeks on the European tour as he finished 11th at the Scottish Open. There can be no doubt as to who has had the better preperation for this week, and early in the week is certainly the best time to catch the Dane. Toru Taniguchi makes up the three-ball and his open record leaves a lot to be desired.

Rory McIlroy's price in the outright market - 25.024/1 - is insane, it's a price that is screaming "BACK ME" at every single golf punter in the UK. Don't fear the weather, some of McIlroy's very best rounds have been on links courses and it wasn't long ago that many thought his best chance of a Major was our Open. Sure his last seven outings include four missed cuts, but they also include three top 10s. I really think his price is a huge overreaction. Take him to beat 2010 champion, Louis Oosthuizen, and Keegan Bradley on day one.

Jeev Milkha Singh was left proclaiming that he "loves links golf" after claiming a spot in this week's Open Championship through the back door on Sunday. Singh can thank his lucky stars that others around him collapsed to give him the chance to tee it up this week, and he should be bouncing off the walls as he takes to the tee with Greg Chalmers and Alejandro Canizares at 07:14 on Thursday morning.

Raphael Jacquelin played fantastically on an extremely tough course in France recently, he is the standout option in his Thursday three ball with Miguel Angel Jimenez and former Champion here David Duval who are both struggling at present.

American Kyle Stanley was 44th at last year's Open in difficult conditions on his debut in the event. Expect him to improve on that performance this year with the experience behind him. He has been in decent form and looks overpriced to get the better of Robert Rock and Stephen Ames who have both been quiet of late.

For outright recommendations read the Punter's excellent preview here.

Recommended Bets
2pts Back Padraig Harrington @ 2.01/1
1pt Back Anders Hansen @ 2.81/1
2pts Back Rory McIlroy @ 2.41/1
1pt Back Jeev Milkha Singh @ 2.561/1
1pt Back Raphael Jacquelin @ 2.21/1
1pt Back Kyle Stanley @ 3.02/1

Season Profit/Loss: +8.42pts

*Follow me on twitter @dangeraghty10

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