The Big Match Tactical View: Tottenham v Everton

The absence of naturally pacey, direct players will harm Tottenham's attacking
Lay Spurs at 2.226/5

With Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon both unavailable, Michael Cox thinks Spurs will struggle for width...

Tottenham v Everton, Sunday 2:05, ESPN.

Match Odds: Tottenham 2.226/5, Everton 3.711/4, The Draw 3.55/2

Everton's trip to White Hart Lane is a fantastic opportunity for Everton - and in particular, David Moyes - to defy their critics, and put themselves firmly in the race for a Champions League slot.

A persistent criticism of Moyes is his defensive strategy away from home. Everton have the third-best home record in the Premier League, collecting 2.06 points per game - but that figure falls to just 1.29 on their travels. A victory here would see Everton move three points behind Tottenham, with a game in hand - although that contest is another tricky trip down to North London, against Arsenal.

Both sides have significant absences for this clash. Moyes is without both Marouane Fellaini and Steven Pienaar for the second consecutive match - with Kevin Mirallas also a doubt - but Andre Villas-Boas has a more serious problems. Jermain Defoe, Gareth Bale and Aaron Lennon are all unavailable, which creates a real problem for the Portuguese coach.

The issue is not necessarily the quality of replacements - Emmanuel Adebayor, Lewis Holtby, Clint Dempsey and Gylfi Sigurdsson is a decent attacking quartet - but the absence of naturally pacey, direct players. Villas-Boas' Spurs are a possession-based side, but are also intent on playing quick, 'vertical' football, as Villas-Boas puts it, breaking quickly before the opposition defence is able to organise itself into a solid, deep position. Bale, Lennon and Defoe are amongst the players that epitomise that approach best.

Bale has often wandered inside from his traditional role on the left flank this season, but Lennon has reliably provided width on the right. Without that duo, Spurs have an alarming lack of natural wide men - Holtby, Dempsey and Sigurdsson all prefer being deployed centrally, and might crowd the centre of the pitch.

Therefore, Tottenham must look for width and directness from elsewhere. The role of the full-backs will be key - both Benoit Assou-Ekotto and Kyle Walker must motor forward constantly to stretch the play - but Mousa Dembele is also important. Despite playing as a central midfielder, he's Spurs' best hope of an attacking player offering dribbling and forward running, and the Belgian must ensure his side's attacks flow quickly.

Moyes remains a very reactive manager, and will be fully aware of how Spurs' absences will affect Villas-Boas' gameplan. Expect to see Everton defending even narrower than usual, and Moyes will hope Tottenham's attack-minded full-backs leave space for Everton to break into. Mirallas would be an extremely useful player in that situation, so his fitness is key to Everton's attacking chances.

In Fellaini's continued absence, there's a good chance Moyes will play  two strikers - as he did in the 1-0 home win over Stoke City last week. Nikica Jelavic isn't in good form, but is likely to spearhead the side with Victor Anichebe playing behind him, and told to drop back into midfield without the ball. Anichebe, Mirallas and Coleman will be crucial on the break, while Jelavic might find himself playing as a functional target man, trying to bring others into play rather than being a significant goal threat himself.

Everton must attack here - Moyes would usually be happy with a point in this fixture, but to continue his challenge for a Champions League slot, an away win is vital. With Spurs tired after a draining Europa League draw with Basel on Thursday and missing key players for their usual gameplan, Everton should have a decent chance of a result, so I'll lay Spurs at 2.226/5.

There's also a decent chance of both sides scoring - that's happened in five of Spurs' last six matches, and in the vast majority of Everton's away fixtures, too. 1.855/6 is a good price to back in that market.

Recommended bets:
Lay Spurs at 2.226/5
Back Both Teams To Score at 1.855/6

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Premier League Injuries: Tottenham sweating on Bale

"With Aaron Lennon injured as well, Tottenham's goal threat is severely dampened, especially as Bale is responsible for eight of Spurs' last 13 league goals."
Best Bet: Lay Tottenham to score two or more goals @ 2.47/5

Gareth Bale, Matija Nastasic and Ciaran Clark will all be big misses for their clubs this weekend...

Ciaran Clark - Stoke v Aston Villa (Saturday, 15:00)
So precarious is Aston Villa's current position in the relegation places that they can ill afford to be without any if their first-choice starters at present. Even though Irish international Clark is still tender in years at just 23, he is still one of the more senior figures among this over youthful Villa side - making 34 appearances for his club this season. Most tellingly, Clark's recently rekindled partnership at centre back with Ron Vlaar, himself returning from a lengthy injury, produced Villa's first successive league wins of the entire season. His replacement Nathan Baker is prone to a mistake, as we have already seen against both Reading and Liverpool.
Recommended Bet: Back Stoke to win @ 2.1411/10

Gareth Bale - Tottenham v Everton (Sunday, 14:05, ESPN)
A thoroughly testing night for Tottenham fans against Basel on Thursday turned into a nightmare in the dying seconds when Gareth Bale's right ankle buckled underneath him in an innocuous looking incident. Spurs will have to wait until scan results come back to find out the extent of the damage but television replays suggest he'll be missing at least the next few weeks and possibly longer. With the battle for Champions League places blazing and an extremely tricky quarter-final second leg still to play, the timing couldn't be worse. With Aaron Lennon injured as well, Tottenham's goal threat is severely dampened, especially as Bale is responsible for eight of Spurs' last 13 league goals.
Best Bet: Lay Tottenham to score two or more goals @ 2.47/5
Matija Nastasic - Man City v Man United (Monday, 20:00, Sky Sports 1)
Man City's young defender has surely been one of the finds of the season. The 20-year-old Serbian has been so assured at the back for the champions and has not only displaced England defender Joleon Lescott, but he's started each of Serbia's World Cup qualifiers. Nastasic has made 18 Premier League appearances for Roberto Mancini's side so far but picked up an injury playing for his country in the last international break that renders him a derby doubt. Man United managed to score three goals in the reverse league fixture and, although City kept a clean sheet at home to Newcastle on Saturday, the last time the Serbian missed an away match, City let in three against Southampton. 
Recommended Bet: Back Man United to score two or more goals @ 2.111/10

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Opta Stats: Tottenham v Everton

"Five of the last six Premier League clashes between these two teams have been won by the home team (one draw). Tottenham are 2.265/4 to win the game."

Spurs face a tough assignment against Everton, as they try to secure a top four spot and challenge in Europe. Opta have all the vital statistics. 

Five of the last six Premier League clashes between these two teams have been won by the home team (one draw). Tottenham are 2.265/4 to win the game.

Everton have won three consecutive league games for the first time this season, but all three of these matches have been played at Goodison Park. The Toffees are 3.65n/a to win a fourth consecutive game.

David Moyes' side are without a win in their last three matches away from home in the Premier League (L2 D1). The draw can be backed at 3.45n/a.

Tottenham have won four of their last six league matches, but just one of their last three (L2). You can lay a Spurs win at 2.285/4.

Nikica Jelavic has scored in both of his league appearances against Tottenham Hotspur. However, the Croatian has scored just once in his last 14 Premier League appearances. Jelavic is 3.814/5 to find the net.

No side have scored the first goal in more Premier League matches this season than Tottenham Hotspur (19). Spurs are 1.84/5 to score the first goal.

Jan Vertonghen has now scored four goals in his last five appearances (all comps) for Tottenham Hotspur. Vertonghen is available at 7.06/1 to find the net.

No side have struck the woodwork more times this season than Everton (19; level with Man Utd) in the Premier League. Spurs are 2.915/8 to keep a clean sheet.

No player has created more goalscoring chances than Leighton Baines (96) across Europe's top five leagues this season. Everton are 1.42/5 to score a goal.

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Premier League: Tottenham leave door ajar for Arsenal

"Now, Lilywhites everywhere are getting that foreboding feeling that history may repeat itself with arch rivals Arsenal poised to ambush their Champions League dreams once again."

After an intriguing round of Premier League action, Christian Crowther assesses the race for those precious Champions League spots...

Who said Tottenham were a one-man team? Three games without a Gareth Bale goal (one missed through suspension) have prompted three straight defeats for the Londoners, but this is too cheap a shot to take at Spurs.

Instead, it seems the psychological scars of last season's agonising submission to Arsenal may just be resurfacing.

Having opened up a 12-point gap over the Gunners at the start of February last year, Spurs looked to have finally shaken off their north London foes after 16 straight campaigns finishing below them.

However, the hoodoo finally caught up with Harry Redknapp's side as Tottenham inexplicably faded, allowing Arsenal to overhaul them into third and clinch what turned out to be the final Champions League berth. 

Fast-forward a year and it's been a week to forget for Andre Villas-Boas' Spurs side, who followed up defeats to Liverpool and Inter by wilting 1-0 at home to a Fulham outfit which had only recorded two away wins all season before visiting White Hart Lane on Sunday.

Now, Lilywhites everywhere are getting that foreboding feeling that history may repeat itself with arch rivals Arsenal poised to ambush their Champions League dreams once again.

Successive Premier League losses have seen Chelsea overtake Spurs into third, while Arsenal are now bearing down, just four points back with a game in hand. 

After Sunday's win over West Ham, Rafa Benitez's Blues are now rated at 1.412/5 to clinch third spot or above, while Tottenham are teetering just ahead of Arsenal in the betting at 3.711/4 and 3.9n/a respectively for a top-three finish.

Suddenly, the momentum has shifted in the race for Europe's elite competition. Rafa is finally starting to prove his critics wrong, recording three league wins from their last four games. 

While, Arsene Wenger's much-maligned Arsenal side have emerged from their blackest moment at Spurs to bounce back with a confidence-boosting win over Bayern before beating bogey side Swansea on Saturday.

The market has reacted to Tottenham's nerves with Arsenal backed into 1.9210/11 for a top-four finish, now ahead of Spurs, who are rated at 2.111/10, in the betting.

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Cash Out: Anfield victims Tottenham still turn a profit

"Walker's folly may have gifted Stewart Downing the equaliser but punters already nervous of the red tide could have received a present of their own."

Do You...Don't You? Cash Out is the unique Betfair tool that allows you to lock in a profit or minimise losses regardless of the final result. Christian Crowther reviews where the optimum Cash Out profits were to be had from the weekend's Premier League action...

Tottenham's long unbeaten run of 12 Premier League games looked in little danger of ending at Anfield after Jan Vertonghen's second goal of the game put Spurs 2-1 ahead in the 53rd minute.

In truth, Tottenham deserved their lead. The visitors, having responded well to Luis Suarez's beautifully crafted opener by going on to dominate the latter stages of the first half and the opening minutes of the second, collected their reward of goals either side of the oranges.

It's now 22 Premier League strikes for Suarez, who moves three clear of Robin van Persie at the top of the charts and is rated at 1.645/8 to stay there until May.

However, Liverpool's recent league form, in which they'd handed out a 5-0 and 4-0 thumping to first Swansea and then Wigan, suggested ample scope for a Reds revival with plenty of time on the clock. And so it transpired, albeit with the aid of some dubious Tottenham defending it must be said.

In particular, Spurs' right back Kyle Walker would not have enjoyed seeing his backpass on Match of the Day 2, if he'd even bothered to tune in.

Walker's folly may have gifted Stewart Downing the equaliser but punters already nervous of the red tide could have received a present of their own. 

If backers of the Tottenham win had chosen to Cash Out in the minutes before Liverpool drew level then they could have locked in a profit of £42.74.

Although the game wasn't televised, followers of Stoke's demise at Newcastle could have revelled in a post lead-taking Cash Out.

Had they been quick enough to spot that Jonathan Walters' 67th-minute opener would only serve to provoke the Geordies' third straight home league comeback, then the ensuing five minutes of positive Cash Out - before Yohan Cabaye's equaliser - saw a weekend high peak of £62.96.

The below table details which teams have been ripest for in-play pilfering in the Premier League this season...

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The Big Match Tactical View: West Brom v Tottenham

Spurs have recorded three successive draws in the league
Back the draw at 3.55/2

Michael Cox considers Steve Clarke and Andre Villas-Boas' tactical options ahead of Sunday's match.

West Brom v Tottenham, Sunday 1:30, Sky Sports 1.

Match Odds: West Brom 3.7511/4, Tottenham 2.26/5, The Draw 3.55/2.

A meeting between two former Jose Mourinho protégés, and two fine tacticians with opposing approaches. Steve Clarke has instructed his sides to be defensive-minded and reactive this season, while Andre Villas-Boas prefers a more adventurous, attacking game.

The general shape of the match is easy to predict - a 4-2-3-1 versus 4-2-3-1, with Tottenham dominating possession, and West Brom defending in two banks of four before counter-attacking quickly. Both coaches, however, have some important selection decisions to make.

Clarke should have Youssouf Mulumbu available following Congo's elimination from the Africa Cup of Nations, but it remains to be seen whether he'll be considered fit to start this match - he'll be tired following his exertions in South Africa, and such a sudden climate change can also have negative consequences upon a player's fitness. Still, his relationship with Claudio Yacob was one of the primary reasons for the Baggies' strong start to the campaign, and Clarke will be keen for Mulumbu to return so Chris Brunt can return to his favoured position, out wide.

The other wide role is up for grabs - Zoltan Gera is out for the season, a great shame considering some of his performances this season, while Peter Odemwingie won't take part after his amusing deadline day activities. Instead, Jerome Thomas is an option, but Clarke might go for the more defensive-minded Graham Dorrans from the start, before opening up later on. Upfront, Romelu Lukaku has ousted Shane Long to become West Brom's main striker, and will be the primary goalscoring threat.

Villas-Boas must decide whether to give a full debut to new signing Lewis Holtby, or continue with Clint Dempsey in the role behind Jermain Defoe. Villas-Boas would prefer to ease Holtby in gently, but Dempsey hasn't been particularly impressive in recent weeks, and Villas-Boas might learn from the Hugo Lloris-Brad Friedel episode, and simply play his new signing immediately. The man in this role, up against the combination of Mulumbu and Yacob, will be particularly important for Spurs, but Holtby seems better suited to provide both a passing option, and a goalscoring threat.

At the back, Villas-Boas' rotation at centre-back has been frustrating. Against Lukaku, he'll want both strength and pace - Michael Dawson and Jan Vertonghen seems a good bet - but more important is the positioning of the backline. They're likely to play high up the pitch, which means that Lukaku will try to sprint in behind, and might have a running battle with the linesman, as well as Dawson, who is Spurs' slowest defender.

Another key clash is Gareth Bale against Billy Jones - the West Brom right-back has been impressive this season, but sometimes is too keen to attack, and leaves too much space behind him in counter-attacking situations. West Brom need  to offer him support on that side, which is another reason to think Dorrans might get the nod.

Clarke will be particularly keen for James Morrison to find space in the role behind Lukaku. He's excellent at drawing wide into pockets of space near the flanks, creating overloads to manufacture crossing situations. Villas-Boas likes his sides to press in midfield, which can leave the defence - especially the full-backs - exposed. If Morrison takes up clever positions to facilitate quick West Brom attacks, Tottenham will struggle to keep a clean sheet.

A draw looks a decent bet here, but it's worth considering that West Brom have recorded only four draws this season (the second fewest in the Premier League) and Tottenham have picked up just six (joint-fourth fewest). Still, Spurs have drawn their last three Premier League games, while West Brom are in poor form but have performed impressively against top-half sides at home this season. The draw, at 3.55/2, is just about good value.

Recommended bet:
Back the draw at 3.55/2

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Cash Out: Late Lane joy for Tottenham pays dividends

"Those who suspected Tottenham would grab their richly deserved leveller would have been cartwheeling in delight if they'd cashed out on a United victory just before the Texan slotted home."

Do You...Don't You? Cash Out is the unique Betfair tool that allows you to lock in a profit or minimise losses regardless of the final result. In a new regular column, Christian Crowther reviews where the optimum Cash Out profits were to be had from last weekend's Premier League action... 

Cash Out is the phrase on every punter's lips and here at Betfair we are so committed to helping our customers find the best value that we have created our very own Cash Out Value league table.

The table works by adding up the total minutes of positive Cash Out return a team has offered throughout each game, then displaying the average over the duration of the season.

All Cash Out value is based on a £25 stake.

Last weekend's Premier League action threw up all sorts of drama at both ends of the table, with 90% of the games producing at least two goals.

Liverpool's 5-0 demolition of Norwich was also one of four games which produced over 3.5 goals as part of a goal-filled showing in the top-flight.

And where there are goals, there are always going to be big cash out opportunities for those with a bit of know-how and a healthy sense of timing.

Observers who got behind a Newcastle win over Reading - but were wise to the goal threat from the bench posed by Adam Le Fondre - could have made a tidy £10.59 profit if they'd cashed out just before the striker's 71st-minute equaliser.

However, it was leaders Manchester United's big Sunday afternoon clash at White Hart Lane which provided the Cash Out dream ticket, thanks to Clint Dempsey's equaliser deep into stoppage time.

While a mixture of David De Gea's ineptitude and a turned down penalty appeal enraged Sir Alex Ferguson at the whistle, those who suspected Tottenham would grab their richly deserved leveller would have been cartwheeling in delight if they'd cashed out on a United victory just before the Texan slotted home.

If the Premier League has taught us anything it's to expect late, late goals and those who applied this principle with Spurs continuing to pepper their visitors' goal, could have walked away with a cool £34.05 profit.

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Tottenham captain expected to confirm his retirement

"Andre Villas-Boas will be cautiously optimistic that his side are prepared for life without him."

Reports suggest that Ledley King will call time on his playing career and instead assume a behind-the-scenes position at Tottenham...

Speculation is growing that Ledley King will announce his retirement from professional football at the age of 31 over the last 24 hours after years spent struggling to fight the effects of a seemingly incurable knee injury.

The Tottenham captain, who is likely to be given a new role either as a coach or ambassador, hasn't managed more than 24 league starts in a campaign since 2006, with the problem proving increasingly restricting.

Remarkably, neither the pain endured nor the sporadic nature of his participation affected the quality of his performances, at least until a dip over the past few months as the years of battling appeared to finally take their toll.

It is a testament to his ability that, despite it being widely accepted that his fitness issues rendered him incapable of playing more than once a week, Fabio Capello opted to include him in his England squad for the last World Cup.

The career-long Spurs stalwart represented his nation 21 times, his first cap being awarded by Sven-Goran Eriksson in 2002. His admirers feel that, were it not for his knee, he would have rivalled the 77 and 81 appearances accumulated by former Senrab team-mate John Terry and Rio Ferdinand.

His standing as a Tottenham icon is assured having been the one constant at the club in a 14-year period that featured plenty of upheaval and difficult moments, but also a season of Champions League football and a Carling Cup triumph.

The fact that King was always an automatic starter when available, regardless of how long he had been out, says everything about his reliability, though new boss Andre Villas-Boas will be cautiously optimistic that his side are prepared for life without him.

French defender Younes Kaboul enjoyed his best campaign at White Hart Lane last term, Michael Dawson - while also susceptible to injury - rarely disappoints, Jan Vertonghen has arrived, William Gallas remains (for now) and Steven Caulker showed considerable promise on loan at Swansea.

The Lilywhites are 2.881/1 to finish in the top four in 2012/13, and 34.033/1 to win the title.

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Premier League Results: Norwich victory stuns Tottenham

Premier League / Mike Norman / 09 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

Anthony Pilkington celebrates his goal against Tottenham

"Alan Pardew’s men recorded their fifth successive victory in the Premier League thanks to a wonderful solo effort from Hatem Ben Arfa and another strike from ‘bargain’ buy Papiss Cisse."

Norwich stun Tottenham, Newcastle record a fifth successive win, and Everton thrash Sunderland on an afternoon of Premier League action.

Tottenham remain in the final Champions League qualifying slot, but only just after they surprisingly lost at home to Norwich this afternoon.

Spurs were available to back at just [1.32] prior to kick-off but found themselves behind inside 15 minutes after Anthony Pilkington put the Canaries in front. Jermain Defoe equalised shortly before half time but the expected dominance never came, in fact it was Norwich who deservedly grabbed the winner in the second half through Elliott Bennett.

Norwich were matched at [14.0] to win the game, whilst the 1-2 Correct Score was backed at [50.0] In-Play.

The reason Spurs cling narrowly onto fourth place in the table is because of Newcastle's 2-0 victory over Bolton at the Sports Direct Arena. Alan Pardew's men recorded their fifth successive victory in the Premier League thanks to a wonderful solo effort from Hatem Ben Arfa and another strike from 'bargain' buy Papiss Cisse.

The Magpies are level on points with Tottenham having played 33 games apiece but stay in fifth place because of a worse goal difference. The 2-0 Correct Score was backed at a high of [18.5], with a home victory touching [3.35] In-Play.

In the Top Four Finish market Newcastle can now be backed at [4.6] having been matched at a massive [100.0] at the start of the season. Tottenham are available to back at [1.7] with Chelsea - who face Fulham this evening - at [2.64]

In the afternoon's other game, Everton thrashed Sunderland 4-0 to confirm their recent dominance over the Black Cats. This is the 18th game in a row that the Toffees have failed to lose to Sunderland, recording 13 wins in that time. A win for David Moyes' men was backed at [2.4] with an Everton Win to Nil matched at a top price of [3.4].

Two teams who have seriously under-achieved this campaign meet on Tueday night and it's hard to pick a winner. The draw is over-priced anyway so it makes sense to think a share of the spoils is on the cards, says...

After Mario Balotelli's red card yesterday, and Wayne Rooney's extended run without a yellow card, Ralph Ellis makes a case for discipline being a vital factor in this season's title race....

Followers of Lee Dixon's column would have enjoyed a great day if backing all his selections on Easter Sunday. Mike Norman explains......

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Opta Stats: Tottenham v Swansea

Opta / Richard / 29 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Spurs saw off Bolton on Tuesday to secure an FA Cup semi-final place

Tottenham are in desperate need of three points if they are to hold on to fourth spot...

Tottenham have lost just one of their last 14 Premier League home games, winning 10 of the others. Match odds

Spurs have won none of their last five Premier League games and have only once gone six without a victory since Harry Redknapp took over (December 2008 to January 2009). Match odds

Redknapp's side have scored the most goals in the opening 15 minutes of games this season (10). First goal odds

The Lilywhites have scored the lowest proportion of goals in the final 15 minutes of matches (13%). First goal odds

Spurs are the only team in the Premier League not to score from a free kick situation this season.

Swansea have won four of their last six Premier League away games. Match odds

The Welsh side have committed fewer fouls than any other team in the top flight (250) and picked up fewer cards (35 yellow, two red).

Gylfi Sigurdsson has scored five goals in his last four away games in the Premier League for Swansea.

Emmanuel Adebayor is the only player in the Premier League who has double figures for both goals and assists (11 each).

Scott Parker has made 99 tackles this season, more than any other player in the top flight.

Blackburn might have won at Old Trafford earlier in the campaign but they won't repeat the feat this time round......

Liverpool head to Tyneside on the back of desperate defeats to QPR and latterly Wigan......

Time is running out for rock-bottom Wolves and a win against fellow strugglers Bolton is an absolute must......

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FA Cup Opta Stats: Tottenham v Bolton

Opta / Richard / 26 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Spurs have won just one of their last seven fixtures in all competitions

This is not a fixture that favours the away side and the Opta stats indicate Bolton's cup run is to end here...

The sides were level (1-1) when the original fixture was stopped due to Fabrice Muamba's collapse, with the goals coming courtesy of a Gareth Bale own-goal and a Kyle Walker header.

Only Everton (41), Arsenal (39) and Manchester United (38) have appeared in more FA Cup quarter-finals than Tottenham (36).

Spurs have been eliminated from three of their last four FA Cup quarter-finals.

Bolton have progressed through eight of their 13 previous FA Cup round six ties.

The Trotters have only lost one of their eight FA Cup sixth round games away from home (excluding replays), winning four and drawing three.

Tottenham have progressed through four of their previous six FA Cup ties against Bolton, including in round five in 2010.

None of the last 16 meetings between Spurs and Bolton in all competitions have been won by the visiting side.

The Trotters scored two own goals on their last FA Cup trip to White Hart Lane, losing the game 0-4 (in February 2010).

The North Londoners have won seven and lost none of their last eight home FA Cup games and have scored more than one in each of their last nine at White Hart Lane (27 in total).

Wanderers have scored exactly two goals in all four FA Cup games this term.

Jermain Defoe has scored three goals in four FA Cup outings this season.

The Opta stats suggest Everton are still on track to meet Liverpool in the last four, despite being held at home......

Chelsea may have to rely on their home form again to see them progress......

Robin van Persie, Junior Hoilett, Gylfi Sigurdsson and perhaps even Sylvan Ebanks-Blake could score this weekend, judging by these Opta trends......

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The Big Match Tactical View: Arsenal v Tottenham

Premier League / Michael Cox / 25 February 2012 / 1 Comments

This is likely to be a fast-paced midfield battle

"Tottenham might have joy by getting Bale and van der Vaart into pockets of space behind Song and Arteta"

A hugely important North London derby should be a fairly straightforward tactical battle and an exciting game, says Michael Cox.

Arsenal v Tottenham, Sunday 1:30pm, Sky Sports 1.

Match odds: Arsenal 2.64, Tottenham 2.94, The Draw 3.55.

Arsene Wenger has never finished below Tottenham Hotspur in his 15-year spell as Arsenal manager. In fact, with the exception of 2005/06 when Arsenal had their eyes on the Champions League, it's rarely even been an issue. But now, with Tottenham ten points clear and playing terrific football, there's reason to believe the previously unthinkable could finally happen.

Wenger also used to enjoy a superb record in games against Spurs, but Arsenal have now picked up just a single point from the last four North London derbies in the league. A defeat here would complete a truly miserable February for the home side.

Tactically, this should be a fairly simple game. Arsenal have played roughly the same way throughout the season, with the small caveat that quick wide players like Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain play in a different style to ball hoarders like Tomas Rosicky, Yossi Benayoun and the now departed Andrei Arshavin. Wenger probably won't make any surprise selections, though I expect him to feature only one of Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain, and instead play someone like Benayoun on the left to help retain possession and get a grip on the game in midfield.

Similarly, Harry Redknapp's tactics rarely change significantly from game to game, though he did name an unusual 3-4-1-2 system at Stevenage last week. That appeared to be an effort to cram as many centre-backs into the side as possible, and the experiment won't be continued at the Emirates. There is a slight fitness doubt over Emmanuel Adebayor against his former club, however, and Spurs' style of play would change significantly if Jermain Defoe started in his place, though probably less so if Louis Saha was used.

Arsenal's 4-3-3 will compete closely with Tottenham's 4-4-1-1, assuming Rafael van der Vaart plays behind the main striker. There are no clear areas of strength or weakness depending upon the formations, with the midfields evenly balanced and no full-backs looking particularly vulnerable against their likely opponents on the wing. One potential exception is Gareth Bale up against Bacary Sagna, but the Frenchman dealt very well with Bale in this game last season, even as Arsenal fell to a 3-2 defeat.

Instead, I think movement and switching positions will be a key part of this game - and perhaps surprisingly, I think it's Tottenham who are the better side in this respect. Adebayor showed his willingness to work the channels in the win over Newcastle a fortnight ago, and he'll have extra motivation against the club he notoriously scored against in his Manchester City days. Spurs have also experimented with bringing Bale inside from the left flank into more of a central role, while van der Vaart is slightly anarchic with his positioning, but nevertheless difficult to pick up.

Arsenal's main movement comes from the midfield trio tilting, with Alex Song starting as the holding midfielder but often finding himself high up to play through balls. This can mean Arsenal are exposed between the lines, though, and I think Tottenham might have joy by getting Bale and van der Vaart into pockets of space behind Song and Mikel Arteta.

With a bit of fluidity in midfield, we often see midfielders caught out of possession and forced to bring down opponents to prevent quick counter-attacks, and though neither side are particularly dirty, I think we might see a few bookings. Song and Scott Parker are the obvious two here, and as Song has five bookings from his last 15 matches, I'll book him at around [3.5] to be shown a card.

But there should be goals. Both sides want to play good football and have had a free midweek, so should be fresh and ready to press from the first whistle. The last five meetings have seen both sides score, and I'll back over 3.5 goals at [2.9].

Recommended bets:
Alex Song to be shown a card at [3.5]
Over 3.5 goals at [2.9]

High-flying Manchester City play hosts to a struggling Blackburn side and it's extremely unlikely that we're going to have an upset on the cards here. Expect a City win and plenty of goals, says Lee Dixon....

The Premier League returns this weekend and Mike Norman is keen to get Sunderland on his side at their current odds, whilst home wins for Chelsea, Newcastle and QPR are also on his agenda....

Wolves have met their deadline to hire a new manager before Saturday's trip to Newcastle, but the appointment has done little to calm relegation fears......

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Lee Dixon: Too tough to split Arsenal and Tottenham

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 24 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Gareth Bale is one of many match-winners in this Spurs team

"A draw is a lively runner because home advantage negates to some extent the fact that Spurs are the better football team right here, right now."

A case could be made for all three outcomes in this match so the draw is the call at an attractive price. One thing is for sure: there will be no shortage of goals, says Lee Dixon.

I've written elsewhere that this is arguably the most important north London derby of Arsene Wenger's time at Arsenal. Others have had league titles at stake and they've all had bragging rights at stake. But this time it's almost Arsene's job that could be at stake.

Being out of both domestic Cups, the Premier League title race and now almost certainly the Champions League is bad enough. But if they were to lose at home to Tottenham to cap it all off, it's not too far-fetched to think that could be the point at which the fans finally turn on their manager in numbers.

Match Odds

This really is one of those games where you could make a case for all three outcomes. Spurs are the in-form side, high on confidence and won this fixture at White Hart Lane earlier in the campaign. If we're looking for a potential match-winner in Harry Redknapp's team we could list quite a few names: Rafael van der Vaart and Emmanuel Adebayor (though both are doubtful for the game at the time of writing), Gareth Bale, Luka Modric, even Louis Saha. But if we look at Arsenal's team, it's pretty much only Robin van Persie who you'd expect to take the game by the scruff of the neck and win it for his side. Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain has impressed over the past month but it's asking a lot of a youngster to come in and play a blinder in his first north London derby. And therein lies part of the problem for the Gunners.

But Arsenal are the home team and at this moment in time will see this as the biggest match they have left to play this season. That's the message Arsene will be sending his players and if they can't get fired up for this one, they never will.

A draw is a lively runner because home advantage negates to some extent the fact that Spurs are the better football team right here, right now.

It's the biggest price of the three and at [3.6] the stalemate is where my money will be.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Over 2.5 goals (1.74) is my strongest selection of the match. Opta tell us Tottenham have kept just one clean sheet in their last 32 matches in all competitions against the Gunners so I think it's safe to assume one here is pretty much out of the question. The two games last season ended 3-2 and 3-3 and at White Hart Lane in October it was 2-1 so recent results also suggest we'll get goals.

From a tactical point of view, there's also the fact that both these teams are at their best when being positive and sending men forward. Momentum will shift throughout the game and there will be times when it's Arsenal playing on the break and times when it's Spurs. Either way, goals are very much on the cards.

To Score

Robin van Persie has served us well as a goalscorer bet in this column throughout the season but, that hat-trick against Blackburn aside, he hasn't looked quite as dangerous as he did a few weeks back. That said, I wouldn't really want to nominate anyone else in the Arsenal team!

With doubts over the fitness of Adebayor and van der Vaart I'm going with Gareth Bale, who has netted three times against Arsenal, his joint-highest tally against any opponent in the Premier League (along with Wigan). He's been given almost a free role in recent times and should have at least a couple of good chances to grab a goal.

Bookings Odds

Going low on bookings proved a shrew bet when Manchester United hosted Liverpool a couple of weeks ago.

No-one wanted to make the Luis Suarez situation any worse by doing something stupid and passionate though the game was, there wasn't too much by the way of indiscipline. At least not during the ninety minutes!

But I do fancy at least five bookings (or three and a red) here. I don't think we'll see ridiculously dangerous tackles or anything but there's pace on both sides and that's a recipe for the odd trip or pull of the shirt to break down an attack. At [1.65] that's my final bet of the game.

2 pts Back the draw @ [3.6]
3 pts Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.74]
1 pt back Gareth Bale to score @ [4.5]
2 pts Back nine points and above in the bookings odds market @ [1.65]

Wolves have met their deadline to hire a new manager before Saturday's trip to Newcastle, but the appointment has done little to calm relegation fears......

Gareth Purnell is normally against Aston Villa, but on Saturday he is fully behind them and expects them to get at least a point against Wigan. Here, he tells us why......

High-flying Manchester City play hosts to a struggling Blackburn side and it's extremely unlikely that we're going to have an upset on the cards here. Expect a City win and plenty of goals, says Lee Dixon....

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Lee Dixon: Newcastle can hold Tottenham

Premier League / Lee Dixon / 11 February 2012 / 4 Comments

Senegal duo Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse can form a formidable partnership for Newcastle

"All these factors mean the draw has appeal at [4.6] but I actually prefer the lay of Spurs. I wouldn’t be that surprised if Newcastle actually won the match so I’d rather cover that eventuality too."

Newcastle keep on improving and in Papiss Cisse they've recruited a dangerous attacker who can form a super partnership with Demba Ba. The former can score at White Hart Lane and help Newcastle to earn at least a draw.

We'll have to wait and see whether Harry Redknapp takes the England job or not. For all we know, he doesn't want it at this moment in time. But all the speculation about it won't be doing him or Tottenham any good at the moment when they have an in-form Newcastle making the trip to White Hart Lane.

Match Odds

Tottenham's match away at Liverpool wasn't exactly a classic but Redknapp will have seen it as a good point earned at a ground where the home side very seldom gets beaten. This match is a different story though and the Spurs boss will be seeing it as one that he really needs to win if his side are to stay in the title race.

The Betfair market makes them [1.53] to do just that but I'm not so sure about that price. Newcastle may be missing Cheick Tiote (international duty), Johan Cabaye (suspension) and probably Ryan Taylor as well for this match (injury) but they've done well in their absences and, in Demba Ba, they have their star and talisman back and in-form, not to mention his mate Papiss Cisse. More on him later. Opta tell us that Spurs have won only two of their last 10 games against Newcastle but on the other hand they've lost just one of their last 29 home matches in the league.

All these factors mean the draw has appeal at [4.6] but I actually prefer the lay of Spurs. I wouldn't be that surprised if Newcastle actually won the match so I'd rather cover that eventuality too.

Both Teams to score

The over/under 2.5 goals market looks a tough one to call. My preference would just about be for over 2.5 goals but then again 1-1 is a lively runner ahead of this match, too. Confused? Let me try and explain and find the better bet then. We'll leave the 1-1 alone because that scoreline would already be a winner with our lay of Spurs and instead back 'yes' on the 'both teams to score' market. Newcastle have some serious firepower with that duo I've already mentioned and I'd be absolutely amazed if Spurs don't get at least one playing at home. So that looks the call at [1.9].

To Score

It always takes time to adapt when you start playing in a new league but one of the advantages of being new to it are that opposing players may not know so much about you. Papiss Cisse is a good example of that. Premier League defenders probably won't have seen much of him so far given he hasn't featured in the Champions League and didn't really catch the eye at the African Cup of Nations. It's one thing having a plan of how to mark a Robin van Persie or a Darren Bent whose games you're so familiar with, even if they end up scoring anyway, it's another to have a plan for one whose strengths and weaknesses you don't know so much about.

Cisse looked good last Sunday, coming short to receive the ball, moving well when not in possession of it and scoring a cracking goal. I was watching the game with former England international Dion Dublin who said that his gangly running style and the way he controls the ball and shoots reminded him of Nwankwo Kanu. I can see where he's coming from and if he ends up being as good as my former Arsenal team-mate then Newcastle have some player on their hands. Demba Ba is the one with the amazing scoring record - 16 goals in his last 16 matches in the league - but my money is on Cisse to get a goal for Newcastle on Saturday.

2 pts Lay Spurs @ [1.53]
3 pts Back both teams to score @[1.9]
Back Papiss Cisse to score @ [4.2]

Michael Cox says

There will probably be goals in this game, but [2.32] for 'Under 2.5 goals' seems a little overpriced. Spurs weren't much of a goal threat away at Anfield on Monday night, and Emmanuel Adebayor is having a mid-season slump - he hasn't scored for eight games. Newcastle, meanwhile, can be a little too cautious on the road, and with Yohan Cabaye and Ryan Taylor likely to be out, they lack long-range goal threats. They depend too much on their Senegalese duo upfront and, with Michael Dawson superb at Anfield and probably able to keep them quiet, I'll be on unders at that price.

Recommended Bet
Back under 2.5 goals @ [2.32]

***

Lee Dixon's Fantastic Five
Get up to £50 back if one leg of Ambassador Dixon's Premier League fivefold lets you down! See this weekend's selection here.

This may not be the best match you'll see all weekend in terms of quality but these are desperate times for these two sides and it's Wolves who get the nod to win it, says Lee Dixon....

Two huge relegation battles are amongst the games Feizal Rahman has previewed this weekend, and it's not good news for Blackburn and Wigan if our man is correct....

Jaymes Monte takes you through the team news, Opta stats and betting markets for three of Saturday's Premier League games......

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Opta Stats: Tottenham v Newcastle

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 08 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

New Newcastle number nine Papiss Cisse got off to a great start last week

Two of the most impressive teams in the country this season meet on Saturday teatime looking to continue their unlikely respective title and top-four charges...

Spurs have won only two of their last 10 games against Newcastle (W2 D2 L6), but are unbeaten in their last four and have won the last two at White Hart Lane.

Newcastle have won six times away from home at White Hart Lane, the joint-most times against any opponent on the road in Premier League history.

Tottenham have lost just one of their last 29 Premier League home games, winning nine and losing none of the last 11.

Demba Ba has now scored 16 goals in his last 16 Premier League appearances for Newcastle.

Newcastle have conceded the highest percentage of goals from set pieces (48%).

Danny Simpson has made more clearances off the goalline than any other player (5).

The Magpies have won four of their last five Premier League games (W4 L1).

Tottenham have drawn 99 games at White Hart Lane in Premier League history.

Spurs have lost just two of their last 22 Premier League matches (W15 D5 L2).

The Lilywhites have fired in more shots on target than any other side in the Premier League (155).

Tottenham have picked up fewer cards than any other side in the top flight (27 yellow, one red).

Aston Villa don't win at home, while Manchester City haven't been winning on the road of late, so something has to give at Villa Park on Sunday......

Wolves head into Sunday's Black Country derby on a high, but the statistics suggest that they will do well to claim victory over neighbours West Brom......

The Premier League's overachieving newcomers collide, with Swansea's magnificent home record giving them a clear edge......

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Opta Stats: Liverpool v Tottenham

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 02 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Luis Suarez is available to face Tottenham following his suspension

Liverpool have hit form recently and are even able to welcome Luis Suarez back on Monday night - will they halt Tottenham's title bid?

Jamie Carragher has scored as many Premier League goals for Tottenham as he has for Liverpool in his career.

Since taking over, Harry Redknapp has overseen six wins in eight games in all competitions for Spurs against Liverpool.

There has been a penalty awarded in four of the last five Premier League matches between Tottenham and Liverpool.

Luka Modric has scored in his last two league appearances against the Reds.

Spurs' win at Anfield last season ended a run of 16 Premier League away games at Liverpool without a victory (D5 L11).

There has been a 90th minute goal in three of the last four league meetings between Liverpool and Tottenham.

Spurs have picked up more points after 23 games than in any previous Premier League season.

Tottenham have only lost two of the last 10 Premier League away matches (W6 D2 L2), but have won just one of the last four (W1 D1 L2).

Liverpool have only had fewer points after 11 home games in two of the previous 19 Premier League campaigns (18 in 2007-08 & 17 in 2003-04).

Kenny Dalglish's side are one of only two sides in the Premier League with an unbeaten home record this season, but they have drawn seven of their 11 matches at Anfield.

Chelsea's home record hasn't been great this season, however after tripping up leaders Manchester City in December, they will be hopeful of causing Manchester United trouble......

Aston Villa were humiliated on their last visit to Tyneside, but will have an opportunity to claim revenge in front of the cameras on Sunday lunchtime......

Fulham have been a bit of a bogey team for Manchester City in recent seasons - will they be the ones to end the Premier League leaders' perfect home record?...

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Tottenham Transfer News: Two strikers linked on deadline day

Premier League / Michael Lintorn / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Hugo Rodallega is one of several players being linked with Tottenham

"There are also murmurs that Harry Redknapp will make one last push for Blackburn pair Chris Samba and Junior Hoilett."

Not for the first time, Tottenham dominate the headlines on transfer deadline day, with several stories surfacing about the [25.0] title outsiders boosting their chances with some last-gasp business.

Wigan forward Hugo Rodallega looks almost certain to move today and with links to both Fulham and QPR, London appears his most likely destination.

There are reports that Spurs will gazump both though, taking advantage of the fact that he is due at White Hart Lane for tonight's match, with the Daily Mirror even suggesting that the Colombian could face them and then join them straight after.

Elsewhere, it is claimed that they will try to seal a deal to bring loan star Emmanuel Adebayor in on a permanent basis for a fee of around £8 million, while there are murmurs that Harry Redknapp will make one last push for Blackburn pair Chris Samba and Junior Hoilett.

In addition to Adebayor, Manchester City boss Roberto Mancini may see the back of another outcast before the 23:00 deadline. No, not Carlos Tevez, despite QPR following Liverpool and West Ham in kindly offering to take him on loan, but Wayne Bridge, who is believed to be Sunderland-bound.

Other speculation doing the rounds is that Arsenal will provide Newcastle with some competition by joining the race to sign Watford defender Adrian Mariappa. The Sun suspect that the Hornets will let him leave for a sum of just £2 million, having previously demanded £4 million.

There could be several strikers on the move, with QPR close to completing the capture of Djibril Cisse within a week of him ending a horrific goal drought at Lazio, and Fulham talking to Stuttgart's Pavel Pogrebnyak, who made his name as a hero of Zenit's triumphant 2007-08 UEFA Cup side.

In the Championship, Southampton [[6.2]] have confirmed the arrival of Doncaster goal-getter Billy Sharp, with leaders West Ham [[2.06]] expected to react by swooping for Barnsley's Ricardo Vaz Te, increasingly their ex-Bolton ranks. Rather more exciting is the gossip that they will land highly-rated Manchester United youngster Ravel Morrison.

Manchester City captain Vincent Kompany returns for Roberto Mancini and though that might not be enough to help te visitors keep a clean sheet, it should help them secure yet another win, says Lee Dixon....

Manchester United host Stoke in the Premier League, just three days after crashing out of the FA Cup. United are widely expeted to win the match of course but what do the black-letter stats say about the value bets, asks...

It is widely claimed that Liverpool are hoping to agree a deal to capture Carlos Tevez from Manchester City before the window closes......

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FA Cup Opta Stats: Watford v Tottenham (and all W ties)

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 25 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jermain Defoe tends to save some of his best form for the FA Cup

Opta have a vast array of statistics regarding this weekend's FA Cup fourth-round clashes between Watford and Tottenham and West Brom and Norwich...

Watford v Tottenham

Watford and Spurs have met four times in the FA Cup and Tottenham have won all four games, scoring 17 goals in the process.

The last meeting between the sides came in the Carling Cup in December 2008 when Watford took the lead only to lose 1-2 at Vicarage Road.

There have been 41 goals scored in the last 10 FA Cup matches involving Watford.

Watford have won one and lost seven of their last eight FA Cup ties against top-flight opposition, two of the defeats coming after replays.

Tottenham have only lost one of the last 27 FA Cup ties where they have been drawn against lower league opponents (Leicester City in 2006). Six of those ties have been won after a replay.

Jermain Defoe has bagged eight goals in 10 FA Cup appearances in the last three seasons.

West Brom v Norwich

The Baggies have progressed on three of the last four occasions that they have made it to the fourth round.

West Brom have scored 12 goals in their last four fourth round FA Cup matches (excluding replays).

Roy Hodgson's men have lost only one of their last 11 FA Cup games at home, though six have been draws.

The Canaries are in the fourth round for the first time since 2007, and only the second since 2003.

Norwich have not won a fourth round tie away from home since 1967 (2-1 at Old Trafford, D5 L6 since).

The last three meetings between West Brom and Norwich have ended in away wins, including both this season.

Just one of the last 11 games between the Baggies and the Canaries in all competitions has been won by more than a one-goal margin.

Here is Opta's verdict on the FA Cup fourth-round encounters taking place at QPR, Sheffield United, Stevenage and Sunderland this weekend......

Opta have plenty of insights into the most high-profile FA Cup fourth-round tie between Liverpool and Manchester United, while the omens are promising for Leicester and Southampton in theirs......

Opta explain why Everton are vulnerable at home to Fulham in the FA Cup fourth round and offer guidance for betting on Derby v Stoke and Hull v Crawley too......

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Opta Stats: Davies to cause Tottenham problems as always

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 02 December 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bolton's captain hasn't been at his best during his side's nightmare start

"Kevin Davies has scored six goals in his last six appearances against Tottenham in all competitions."

Kevin Davies, Demba Ba and Chris Brunt are a few of the players that the Opta statistics indicate could be among the goals this weekend...

Newcastle v Chelsea (Saturday, 12:45, Sky Sports 1)
Only Robin van Persie (31) and Wayne Rooney (19) have netted more league goals in 2011 than Demba Ba (16)
After a slow start that many link to his period of fasting for Ramadan, Ba has been prolific, and took his tally to nine goals in ten Premier League starts for Newcastle with a cool penalty at Old Trafford last week. Having struck against Tottenham too, he's clearly relishes the big occasions, and should prove that again.
Recommended Bet: Ba to score @ [3.5]

Blackburn v Swansea (Saturday, 15:00)
Michel Vorm has kept the most clean sheets in the PL this season (six)
This is different trend to the ones usually flagged up in this column, using an Opta statistic to talk up a goalkeeper rather than a scorer. The Dutch international has been superb since his move to south Wales and though the majority of his clean sheets have come there, expect a seventh away to a Blackburn side who have fired blanks in three of their six home games.
Recommended Bet: Swansea to keep a clean sheet @ [4.5]

QPR v West Brom (Saturday, 15:00)
Chris Brunt has scored in his last three games against QPR at Loftus Road (two for WBA, one for Sheffield Wednesday)
Brunt hasn't contributed as many goals as he did at the beginning of his West Brom stint but his set-piece ability ensures that he remains a threat. The Northern Irishman has netted twice in the current campaign and a trip to one of his favourite grounds gives him a good chance of delivering again.
Recommended Bet: Brunt to score @ [6.3]

Tottenham v Bolton (Saturday, 15:00)
Kevin Davies has scored six goals in his last six appearances against Tottenham in all competitions
Bolton's unprolific captain - who has scored just twice this season - appears to find a whole new gear against certain London clubs and the above gem suggests that Spurs are one of his favourites. The Lilywhites have been great of late yet still frequently concede, keeping only one clean sheet in eight.
Recommended Bet: Davies to score @ [6.8]

Click here to access dozens more priceless Opta statistics

Michael Lintorn has completed his weekly forage through Opta's magnificent stats, using them to pick out some bets for this weekend's Premier League games......

Feizal Rahman previews three of Saturday's Premier League fixtures using the Opta stats, and believes goals will be the order of the day as Manchester City look to extend their lead at the top of the table....

The Opta statistics for Saturday's teatime encounter between Aston Villa and Manchester United suggest that the hosts will pose a threat despite their dismal record in this fixture......

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Opta Stats: Newcastle v Tottenham

Opta / Michael Lintorn / 12 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Steven Taylor has been a constant feature of a defence which has conceded just four in seven games

Newcastle's stingy defence meets Tottenham's prolific attack on Sunday. Here's Opta's take on how that battle will unfold...

This is the first time that Newcastle have gone 10 games unbeaten in the top flight since August 1997. (W5 D5)

Spurs have scored exactly one goal on each of their last six visits to St James Park in the Premier League.

Newcastle have won four and lost none of their last five Premier League matches against Tottenham at St James Park.

If Spurs win this match, they will equal their best ever run of successive victories in the Premier League era (five), which they have done four times before.

Aaron Lennon scored in both meetings with Newcastle in the Premier League last season.

Demba Ba has scored 11 goals in 14 Premier League starts.

Newcastle are unbeaten in their last seven Premier League matches at home to London sides, but five of those games have been draws.

Spurs have won only one of their last nine trips to play teams from the north east in the Premier League (W1 D3 L5).

Only the top three sides in the Premier League have scored more goals than Tottenham this season, despite the fact that Spurs have played one game fewer than most teams.

Newcastle have conceded fewer goals than any other side in the Premier League this season and the fewest after seven games of any previous season in the top flight other than 1995-96 and 1900-01, where they had shipped just three.

The Opta trends indicate that Arsenal will begin climbing the table with three points against Sunderland on Sunday, but don't expect a big scoreline......

The first few minutes could prove decisive in Sunday's grudge match at The Hawthorns, with the Baggies frequently flying out of the blocks of late......

Everton have a fine recent record against Chelsea, who have been uncharacteristically leaky at the back. Could there be a shock at Stamford Bridge?...

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