Premier League 
/ Michael Cox / 25 February 2012 / 1 Comments 
This is likely to be a fast-paced midfield battle
"Tottenham might have joy by getting Bale and van der Vaart into pockets of space behind Song and Arteta"
A hugely important North London derby should be a fairly straightforward tactical battle and an exciting game, says Michael Cox.
Arsenal v Tottenham, Sunday 1:30pm, Sky Sports 1.
Match odds: Arsenal 2.64, Tottenham 2.94, The Draw 3.55.
Arsene Wenger has never finished below Tottenham Hotspur in his 15-year spell as Arsenal manager. In fact, with the exception of 2005/06 when Arsenal had their eyes on the Champions League, it's rarely even been an issue. But now, with Tottenham ten points clear and playing terrific football, there's reason to believe the previously unthinkable could finally happen.
Wenger also used to enjoy a superb record in games against Spurs, but Arsenal have now picked up just a single point from the last four North London derbies in the league. A defeat here would complete a truly miserable February for the home side.
Tactically, this should be a fairly simple game. Arsenal have played roughly the same way throughout the season, with the small caveat that quick wide players like Theo Walcott and Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain play in a different style to ball hoarders like Tomas Rosicky, Yossi Benayoun and the now departed Andrei Arshavin. Wenger probably won't make any surprise selections, though I expect him to feature only one of Walcott and Oxlade-Chamberlain, and instead play someone like Benayoun on the left to help retain possession and get a grip on the game in midfield.
Similarly, Harry Redknapp's tactics rarely change significantly from game to game, though he did name an unusual 3-4-1-2 system at Stevenage last week. That appeared to be an effort to cram as many centre-backs into the side as possible, and the experiment won't be continued at the Emirates. There is a slight fitness doubt over Emmanuel Adebayor against his former club, however, and Spurs' style of play would change significantly if Jermain Defoe started in his place, though probably less so if Louis Saha was used.
Arsenal's 4-3-3 will compete closely with Tottenham's 4-4-1-1, assuming Rafael van der Vaart plays behind the main striker. There are no clear areas of strength or weakness depending upon the formations, with the midfields evenly balanced and no full-backs looking particularly vulnerable against their likely opponents on the wing. One potential exception is Gareth Bale up against Bacary Sagna, but the Frenchman dealt very well with Bale in this game last season, even as Arsenal fell to a 3-2 defeat.
Instead, I think movement and switching positions will be a key part of this game - and perhaps surprisingly, I think it's Tottenham who are the better side in this respect. Adebayor showed his willingness to work the channels in the win over Newcastle a fortnight ago, and he'll have extra motivation against the club he notoriously scored against in his Manchester City days. Spurs have also experimented with bringing Bale inside from the left flank into more of a central role, while van der Vaart is slightly anarchic with his positioning, but nevertheless difficult to pick up.
Arsenal's main movement comes from the midfield trio tilting, with Alex Song starting as the holding midfielder but often finding himself high up to play through balls. This can mean Arsenal are exposed between the lines, though, and I think Tottenham might have joy by getting Bale and van der Vaart into pockets of space behind Song and Mikel Arteta.
With a bit of fluidity in midfield, we often see midfielders caught out of possession and forced to bring down opponents to prevent quick counter-attacks, and though neither side are particularly dirty, I think we might see a few bookings. Song and Scott Parker are the obvious two here, and as Song has five bookings from his last 15 matches, I'll book him at around [3.5] to be shown a card.
But there should be goals. Both sides want to play good football and have had a free midweek, so should be fresh and ready to press from the first whistle. The last five meetings have seen both sides score, and I'll back over 3.5 goals at [2.9].
Recommended bets:
Alex Song to be shown a card at [3.5]
Over 3.5 goals at [2.9]
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