The Big Wednesday Multiple: The Magnificent 7.11 chance

"We kick off the multiple in the Uefa Champions League as take on in the third qualifying round. The first leg between the pair ended in a 0-3 win for the Swedish side and I can see no reason why they won’t record another victory at home this afternoon."

It's that time of the week for the big Wednesday multiple as Paul Robinson selects a home win, an away win, a match to go over 2.5 goals and a match to go under 2.5 goals. After a couple of near misses recently, can he get all four up today? Here are his selections.

Bet 1: Helsingborgs (HOME) @ 1.75/7

We kick off the multiple in the Uefa Champions League as Helsingborgs take on Slask Wroclaw in the third qualifying round. The first leg between the pair ended in a 0-3 win for the Swedish side and I can see no reason why they won't record another victory at home this afternoon.

Åge Hareide is in charge till the end of 2012 after previous manager Conny Karlsson resigned and he has made a cracking start in his attempt to get The Reds through to the group stages for the first time since the year 2000. They completely dominated the first leg in Poland and while they don't need to win today to progress, I can't see them playing negatively and it would be a huge surprise if Slask Wroclaw got anything from the game.

1.75/7 seems like a very good price to me and I expect Helsingborgs to complete their sixth home victory out of seven in all competitions.

Bet 2: NK Maribor (AWAY) @ 1.664/6

We stay in the Champions League for our away victory today as Slovenia's NK Maribor take a 4-1 lead over to Luxembourg for their second leg with the wonderfully named, F91 Dudelange.

The match in Slovenia was a complete procession for Maribor and they were 3-0 up by the 50 minute mark. Like the opening selection in our multiple, Maribor don't need to win to progress, but what fills me with confidence about this bet that is that they faced the exact same scenario in the previous round; winning 4-1 at home before going on to complete a 2-1 away victory.

Their form on the road is top notch; undefeated in 12 in all competitions, winning nine of them, and while they are quite short at 1.664/6 here, I think it's still value.

Bet 3: IA Akranes v Fylkir (Over 2.5 goals) @ 1.558/15

This week's likely goal fest comes from Iceland as IA Akranes take on Fylkir in the Urvalsdeild. These pair sit ninth and fifth in the table respectively. However, in the average goals per game table they sit fifth and fourth.

IA's matches are averaging 3.38 goals per 90 minutes and six of their seven home fixtures so far this season have gone over 2.5. They haven't just been scraping over either, five have gone over 3.5, three over 4.5 and the match against FH at the end of June actually went over 8.5 goals.

Fylkir aren't too far behind in the goal stakes as their games are averaging 3.15 goals each time. Four of their six away fixtures have had three goals or more this campaign, and I'm not sure what it is about FH, but similarly to today's opponents, their match with them in June went over 7.5.

Bet 4: Real Garcilaso v Uni Cesar Vallejo (Under 2.5 goals) @ 1.625/8

Completely in contrast to the third leg of our multiple, Real Garcilaso against Uni Cesar Vallejo looks like a tight, low-scoring affair on paper. These two sit third and second in the Peruvian Primera Division respectively and the atmosphere should be tense and nervy as they are both in contention for the league title with just two games to go.

Garcilaso have seen six of their last seven go under 2.5 goals as the season reaches its climax, and seven of their last eight at home have followed suit, with Freddy García Loayza's men keeping six clean sheets in the process, which is a fabulous effort for a club who are newly promoted to the division.

Uni Cesar Vallejo are just a single point ahead of Garcilaso and level on points with Sporting Cristal at the top. The key to their success has been their defence and they've conceded an average of less than one goal per game. On the road, their last eight fixtures have all had two goals or less, firing three blanks but keeping four clean sheets.

Recommended Multiple

Back Helsingborgs @ 1.75/7; Back NK Maribor @ 1.66; Back Over 2.5 Goals in IA Akranes v Fylkir @ 1.558/15; Back Under 2.5 Goals in Real Garcilaso v Uni Cesar Vallejo @ 1.625/8; The Multiple pays approximately 7.11n/a

Multiple prices are based on our Fixed Odds product, so any winnings are exempt from commission.

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US Moto GP Betting: Lorenzo the magnificent

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jorge Lorenzo looked fantastic in practice yesterday

"It’s Lorenzo who’s fastest so far and the smiles are wide in his garage. It’s the first time this year we’ve seen him favourite, at [2.88], but the way he’s riding at the moment, it’s probably justified."

It's a three-way fight for favouritism between Stoner, Pedrosa and Lorenzo as we head to the States and of these three it is the latter who looks to have the best tools at his disposal to end up on the highest part of the podium, says Trent Burton.

As the bikes head Stateside this weekend, the championship is wide open again.

Germany saw the race of the year so far as Dani Pedrosa stunned everyone, and by his own admission - himself, by taking the win just two races after returning from injury. But in what was a remarkable weekend, that wasn't the main story.

There was the subplot of Ducatis' continuing, and it seems worsening struggles, highlighted by Valentino Rossi qualifying in 16th. And then there was the bigger picture of the championship battle between Jorge Lorenzo and Casey Stoner.

For the second race in a row Stoner had lead only to suffer from rear grip problems towards the end of the race. And again he lost second place on the last lap. But this time it stung a little more as he lost the position to Lorenzo, enabling him to take another four point bite out of his title lead. So much in sport is about confidence and Lorenzo's is through the roof right now. Stoner's is ever so slightly on the wane and Rossi has been putting up posters on lamp posts looking for his.

Laguna Seca is one of the most technical and challenging circuits we go to. The first half of the lap is flowing and pure Yamaha territory with the second half a little more point and squirt, which suits the Honda.

It's Lorenzo who's fastest so far and the smiles are wide in his garage. It's the first time this year we've seen him favourite, at [2.88], but the way he's riding at the moment, it's probably justified. His consistency in yesterday's afternoon session was a thing of sheer beauty as he reeled off long strings of fast laps, all within a tenth of each other, as everyone else searched for setup.

Stoner loves Laguna and has finished on the podium here three of the last four years, with one win. But he struggled a tad on Friday. They seem to have found a cure for the tyre problems of late but have sacrificed in other areas as a result. Even so, [3.3] seems a little too big. I've no doubt they'll sort the problems on Saturday and we'll see Lorenzo and Stoner almost as equal favourites.

Pedrosa is looking like his old self again, which is great to see. Quick on Friday, he'll be in the mix with the other two for the win. At [4.3] it's Pedrosa who is probably the best value to win as there's little to separate him from his team-mate and countryman. Having missed four races, he's also not got a championship to worry about, just this race.

The best hope someone has of rattling the top three should be Ben Spies. The American was a little off the pace on Friday but supremely confident they had at least another half a second in the bike. He's ridden Laguna Seca more times than anyone in the field from his Superbike days and, whilst it will take an extraordinary effort, I think he can make that podium. There's been a bit of a 'feeling' around the number 11 garage this week and he seems immune to home race pressure. [2.84] is an excellent price for what, to some, would be a surprise podium. Not this writer, though.

Remember the time difference so the race will be live from 22:00 on Sunday night. For the first time in ages there's zero chance of rain so here's hoping for a race every bit as cracking as last week's.

Recommended bets

Back Jorge Lorenzo for the win at [2.88]
Back Ben Spies for the podium at [2.84]

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US Open Reaction: Salute magnificent McIlroy but don't back a repeat of the Tiger era

Golf > General > US Open Reaction: Salute magnificent McIlroy but don't back a repeat of the Tiger era

View Market General / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Woods and McIlroy together in California last year

"Golf and golf betting are completely different than they were during the Tiger era, and it would be unrealistic to expect Rory or anyone else to emulate Woods' dominance."

Paul Krishnamurty was as impressed as anyone by the young Irishman's performance at Congressional. However, it's unlikely that he will emulate Tiger's other-stratospheric feats and punters should remember that.

For now, we must bask in the moment. We've just witnessed an incredible feat, and a new British sporting hero has emerged. With some of the other 'icons' that represent, say, our football teams in mind, we should celebrate the fact that Rory McIlroy seems such a likeable, genuine bloke. It is unbridled good news for British golf, in particular Northern Ireland, which has now produced the last two US Open winners. Rory's breakthrough is exactly what the sport needed, especially with its talisman Tiger Woods increasingly resembling a spent force.

Having spent a relatively quiet trading weekend pondering Rory's sensational performance, I've concluded that it was the fourth best I've ever seen. For the record, the other three were all produced by Tiger - in no particular order, his first Masters victory, by 12 strokes just a few months after turning pro. His 15-shot victory in the 2000 US Open at Pebble Beach, and again when landing this major in 2008, despite playing 90 holes with a broken leg.

I couldn't agree more with Steve Rawling's analysis that after such a performance, Rory is the real world number one, even if the rankings don't quite reflect it yet. Moreover, having captured the public imagination in spectacular style, he's certainly the punters' favourite, as illustrated by the massive gamble underway for next month's Open Championship. McIlroy's odds for the Sandwich showpiece have halved into [7.4] over the last few days, and were he to win in the meantime, would probably shorten to Tiger-esque levels.

At this point, serious punters must take a step back. No matter how good they are, everyone has their price, and I would struggle to manufacture an argument for backing any golfer nowadays at such short odds. Ultimately, golf and golf betting are completely different than they were during the Tiger era, and it would be unrealistic to expect Rory or anyone else to match Woods' former dominance.

Tiger transformed golf single-handedly. Before that first Masters title, Woods shared favouritism with much older players like Greg Norman, Nick Faldo and Fred Couples. Within months it became clear that they were yesterday's men. That isn't the case with Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, who are at their peak right now and remain as likely as anyone to win big events.

For roughly a decade, Woods was playing a different game to the rest. He had seemingly super-human ability, and a machine-like temperament, capable of stepping up a gear whenever required. I always argued that Tiger's only sporting equivalent was Sir Donald Bradman, whose 99.99 Test average remains in a completely different stratosphere to anyone else. However good Rory is or will become, it is unlikely that will ever be said of him.

Woods inspired a new generation, that would take several years to emerge. McIlroy is the first to reach super-stardom, but there is no shortage of alternatives. The USA has Rickie Fowler, Italy has Matteo Manassero, Japan has Ryo Ishikawa. Emerging golf superpowers like South Korea can boast numerous brilliant youngsters. My favourite is Aussie Jason Day, who did me an enormous favour yesterday by winning 'without McIlroy'. To finish runner-up on both his Masters and US Open debuts, two majors that usually reward experience and penalise novices, is a huge achievement. Day has less top-notch experience than Rory, and could well reach the same level over the next year or so.

Whoever fares best amongst them, dominating that lot will be impossible in my view. Moreover, by the time Rory hits 30, there's bound to be another dozen or so youngsters emerging, and prompting exactly this type of discussion.

More immediately though, we must look to Sandwich, where Rory's chance depends on the weather. In calm conditions, McIlroy is probably the best links player around. Even before he turned pro, he'd mastered the secrets of links golf, growing up in Northern Ireland. However, in windy conditions, Rory's high ball-flight has looked a serious handicap, and he lacks the verstility to cope. Take last year's Open for example, where he began with 63 in benign conditions at St Andrews, only to follow up with 80 when the weather turned for the worse the following day.

With his reputation and popularity at an all-time high, I expect the money will continue to flood in before the Open, but punters would be well advised to check the draw and weather forecast before parting with any cash.

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Estoril Moto GP Betting: Lorenzo the magnificent

Moto GP / Trent Burton / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jorge Lorenzo loves it in Estoril

The bikes are back and so is Trent Burton. Here are his thoughts on the Estoril Moto GP and the best bets on offer.

We've been talking about it all month. Counting the sleeps. Worrying about the weather. Predicting this and that. And then on Friday, it was finally here. No, not the bloody wedding.

MotoGP has had a month off after the Japanese GP had to be rescheduled after the unfortunate events that have taken place there this year. And since the mad events of Jerez, we've been desperate to get the bikes back on track.

Jorge Lorenzo may have won in Jerez by twenty seconds but that barely made the top five talking points. There were breakdowns and crashes aplenty, none more interesting than Valentino Rossi's fall that took out Casey Stoner. There was a bit of hubbub in the press as a whole host of things were blown out of all context and proportion but the simple facts were this...

Rossi made a mistake. Stoner was unlucky to get taken out. Sometimes that happens in racing. It's no secret the two aren't exactly mates so all it did was widen an already wide divide. And prove that underneath that often gruff exterior, Casey has quite the dry sense of humour.

So now we find ourselves at Estoril. Lorenzo Land. Jorge has never lost a race on an MotoGP bike since he first came here in 2008. The Yamaha might struggle down the long straight here as it's still a little down on power, but even so he's been consistently quick during Friday's practice. Second favourite at [2.94] is an excellent price for the Spaniard to go four in row.

It's been the Hondas setting the pace though. Marco Simoncelli ended Friday the quickest, the most consistently fast rider over the course of the day was Dani Pedrosa and, despite a few setup issues, Stoner was still able to dial in a healthy supply of quick laps too. Simoncelli might look tempting at 6.4 for the win but it's still not a risk I'd be taking. But if his podium price heads up around [1.8], it's well worth a look.

Pedrosa's [7.6] is more tempting however. He's managed a third and a second so far this year with a bung shoulder that he's had fixed in the month off. If it holds up for the full distance there's no doubt he'll be right up there. That price is covered in doubt about the shoulder but he's said it feels a lot better after testing it out on Friday. As such, I'd be looking at that price now before it steadily falls as we approach race day.

Stoner is an interesting one. He's never done particularly well at Estoril and hasn't blown everyone way early on in practice, which is his usual style. He's a [2.76] favourite but I'm much more drawn to what's on offer for the two Spaniards this weekend.

But the forecast for the weekend is rain what might change things a little. If it does rain, a certain Italian comes into the equation. Rossi was quick in the wet in Jerez before he crashed and he's been good already in the dry here, much higher up the order than he has been of late. I wouldn't get too excited and stump up for the [7.8] price on a win but, if wet, [1.76] for a first Ducati podium for Valentino is certainly something to consider.

Rain or shine, the times are desperately close so it should be a cracker. The Ducatis will wear red, Jorge is after a fairytale and I'm sure, whoever wins, they'll give us a wave from the balcony at the end. Just don't expect Casey and Valentino to kiss and make up....

Recommended Bets

Back Jorge Lorenzo for the win at [2.94]
Back Valentino Rossi for a Top 3 (if wet) at [1.76]

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