Moto GP 
/ Trent Burton / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Jorge Lorenzo loves it in Estoril
The bikes are back and so is Trent Burton. Here are his thoughts on the Estoril Moto GP and the best bets on offer.
We've been talking about it all month. Counting the sleeps. Worrying about the weather. Predicting this and that. And then on Friday, it was finally here. No, not the bloody wedding.
MotoGP has had a month off after the Japanese GP had to be rescheduled after the unfortunate events that have taken place there this year. And since the mad events of Jerez, we've been desperate to get the bikes back on track.
Jorge Lorenzo may have won in Jerez by twenty seconds but that barely made the top five talking points. There were breakdowns and crashes aplenty, none more interesting than Valentino Rossi's fall that took out Casey Stoner. There was a bit of hubbub in the press as a whole host of things were blown out of all context and proportion but the simple facts were this...
Rossi made a mistake. Stoner was unlucky to get taken out. Sometimes that happens in racing. It's no secret the two aren't exactly mates so all it did was widen an already wide divide. And prove that underneath that often gruff exterior, Casey has quite the dry sense of humour.
So now we find ourselves at Estoril. Lorenzo Land. Jorge has never lost a race on an MotoGP bike since he first came here in 2008. The Yamaha might struggle down the long straight here as it's still a little down on power, but even so he's been consistently quick during Friday's practice. Second favourite at [2.94] is an excellent price for the Spaniard to go four in row.
It's been the Hondas setting the pace though. Marco Simoncelli ended Friday the quickest, the most consistently fast rider over the course of the day was Dani Pedrosa and, despite a few setup issues, Stoner was still able to dial in a healthy supply of quick laps too. Simoncelli might look tempting at 6.4 for the win but it's still not a risk I'd be taking. But if his podium price heads up around [1.8], it's well worth a look.
Pedrosa's [7.6] is more tempting however. He's managed a third and a second so far this year with a bung shoulder that he's had fixed in the month off. If it holds up for the full distance there's no doubt he'll be right up there. That price is covered in doubt about the shoulder but he's said it feels a lot better after testing it out on Friday. As such, I'd be looking at that price now before it steadily falls as we approach race day.
Stoner is an interesting one. He's never done particularly well at Estoril and hasn't blown everyone way early on in practice, which is his usual style. He's a [2.76] favourite but I'm much more drawn to what's on offer for the two Spaniards this weekend.
But the forecast for the weekend is rain what might change things a little. If it does rain, a certain Italian comes into the equation. Rossi was quick in the wet in Jerez before he crashed and he's been good already in the dry here, much higher up the order than he has been of late. I wouldn't get too excited and stump up for the [7.8] price on a win but, if wet, [1.76] for a first Ducati podium for Valentino is certainly something to consider.
Rain or shine, the times are desperately close so it should be a cracker. The Ducatis will wear red, Jorge is after a fairytale and I'm sure, whoever wins, they'll give us a wave from the balcony at the end. Just don't expect Casey and Valentino to kiss and make up....
Recommended Bets
Back Jorge Lorenzo for the win at [2.94]
Back Valentino Rossi for a Top 3 (if wet) at [1.76]
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