The Punter's US Open In-Play Blog: Tiger hits the front

Steve takes a close look at the state of play at halfway, where only three players are under-par...

11:00 - June 16, 2012

We've reached the halfway stage of the 112th US Open and look how tough it is; all but three players are over-par. And look who the three are, three experienced major champions.

Halfway Leaderboard with prices to back as at 10.40am

Tiger Woods -1 2.681/1
Jim Furyk -1 6.85/1
David Toms -1 11.010/1
Graeme McDowell +1 17.016/1
Nicholas Colsaerts +1 28.027/1
Michael Thompson +1 80.079/1
John Peterson +1 110.0109/1
Blake Adams +2 90.089/1
+3 Bar

With the course playing so viciously hard it always looked likely that the field would thin out considerably and it has. As pointed out in my preview, in the last 16 years, no winner has been more than two shots off the halfway lead so we probably shouldn't look beyond those listed above for the 2012 winner but I don't see it as quite that simple at Olympic Club.

Graeme McDowell did very little wrong late in his second round yesterday yet dropped three shots in four holes. It's a demanding test in the extreme and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the four market leaders could all stumble to varying degrees and that someone could sneak into the picture before tomorrow. If that is to happen though, they're going to have to play incredibly well, the best score anyone could manage yesterday was three-under par, shot par by Hunter Hamrick.

I'm glad to have Tiger Woods onside but I'm not sure I'd want to back him at his current price. So exacting is the examination set that he only has to be off his game a fraction and he'll tumble out of the picture, as so many did yesterday.

Woods' good pal and playing partner in round three, Jim Furyk, has to be given the utmost respect and as I said yesterday, I really do expect him to hang around. A week ago I looked hard at backing Furyk at odds of 55.054/1 but I felt then, as I still do now, that Jim will always find someone to beat him. That said, with so few in-contention, there aren't that many around to do the job now.

I've no idea how much credence you can give it in the context of this event, but David Toms has a poor third round scoring record this year and of the front four in the betting, he's the one I can see struggling today. He's led or been tied for the lead in six events since 2006 on the PGA Tour but converted only once and on that occasion, at last year's Crowne Plaza Invitational, he shot 74 in round three to relinquish a seven-shot lead before bouncing back on Sunday to win by one.

I've been impressed with G-Mac so far and I'm happy to have him onside. He plays in the 22.45 two-ball with Nicholas Colsaerts in a rematch of the recent Volvo World Match Play final. The big-hitting Belgian has surprised me I must admit but every credit has to be given to Mike Norman, who advocated his chances in his form guide.

As you can see by their current odds, first round leader Michael Thompson, 36-year-old Tour maiden Blake Adams and brand new pro John Peterson aren't expected to win and it's hard to imagine any of them coping with the pressure.

There are currently ten top-class players on +3 or worse for the tournament, trading at a double-figure price, with Matt Kuchar at 30.029/1, the shortest but I can't see any value in playing any of them. The above stat re being within two is off-putting, and given the first six holes are so tough and that anyone playing catch-up can't afford to drop shots there, I think waiting to see how they all start seems sensible.

If you do want to get with someone just off the pace, as Paul Krishnamurty points out here, why not wait until they reach the 7th tee? Kuchar double-bogeyed the 1st hole yesterday and bogeyed the 3rd. If he repeats that feat today he'll be trading at a triple-figure price in no time, so 30.029/1 makes very little appeal.

If I had to pick one of those trading in double figures, it would be Steve Stricker. Presently just a shot worse than Kuchar, at 85.084/1 he looks a far better value play, though I really do think waiting and playing in-running makes more sense.

17:15 - June 15, 2012

It isn't getting any easier, Rickie Fowler opens up with a triple-bogey on the 1st. Rory McIlroy heading out by the looks of it, now +2 for the day and +9 for the tournament. And I've had a very small play on Martin Kaymer at 90.089/1. There'll be nobody left soon!

Lookout for Lee Westwood. -1 for the round and now +2 for the event.

16:50 - June 15, 2012

Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar and Nick Watney all going backwards, so Graeme McDowell added to the portfolio at 17.516/1.

11:05 - June 15, 2012

What a fantastic first day at the US Open, who could ask for more? Yes my pre-event picks have been disappointing but with the likes of Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy and many more faltering, I'm certainly not alone there and every cloud has a silver lining. As stated in my preview, I've been cautious from the start so I still have plenty of ammunition to go to war with. All I need is a clear target!

First day highlights included a sublime 66 from leader, Michael Thompson, a masterly display from Tiger Woods, which saw the former world number one seemingly in total control of his game - something many thought we'd never see again. There was an albatross two on the par five 17th by Nick Watney. An amazing level par 70 by 17-year-old amateur Beau Hossler, a great fight-back by 14-year-old Andy Zhang, who somehow broke 80 after being eight over-par though just five holes, and we also witnessed a number of very disappointing starts by some big names, including world number one Luke Donald, who himself only just broke 80. But the star of the show for me was the course...

After last year's debacle, when Rory McIlroy won at rain-softened Congressional with a whopping 16-under total, it's nice to see normal US Open service resumed. Although the current lead is -4, I'll be very surprised if the winning score is under par, the course is every bit as tough as it was thought to be and the first six holes are absolutely brutal.

The 1st ranked the toughest yesterday and the next five ranked 6th, 5th, 9th, 4th, and 3rd hardest. Now that's what you call a tough start! The second hardest hole was the monster par five 16th which gave up just six birdies all day long.

As much as I've enjoyed the event so far, I'm a bit frustrated by the state of play. I was hoping to add to my portfolio late last night or this morning with a few more backs but after much deliberation, I've decided to keep my powder dry for now.

It looked as though very few players would end the day under par but some late rallies by some of the late starters, just as I was flagging badly, have resulted in a more congested leaderboard than I'd anticipated. In the last half an hour of Sky's live play, Justin Rose and Graeme McDowell both birdied their last two holes, Ian Poulter made eagle at his penultimate hole (the drivable 7th) and Lee Westwood rallied with a birdie at the 17th.

I very nearly backed G-Mac at 19.518/1 in the early hours but regrettably I didn't, deciding unwisely to sleep on it and I've now decided to let battle commence before I make my next move.

At 9.88/1, Justin Rose looks a bit short to me. He needed 30 putts yesterday and he only played one practice round - a decision I think he'll go on to regret.

Having fiercely contested the US Masters and won the Players Championship, Matt Kuchar is developing into a big event specialist this year and at 14.513/1, currently on level par, he's a perfectly fair price. G-Mac found 10 of 14 fairways yesterday (as did Woods) and only Francesco Molinari (12 of 14) found more. He's shortened up more than I' hoped overnight but given he's already won a US Open in California; he has to be respected after such a great start. He too is on level par.

I'm not overly keen on the next two in the market. Jim Furyk (level par) always looks as though he'll find a way to get beat nowadays though he's sure to hang around. Lee Westwood (+3) sounded irritated by the conditions when interviewed after round one and he can't afford another poor start today. At just 19.518/1, backers have to hope that mistakes are few or non-existent.

Only three others trade at less than 30.029/1. Leader Thompson, who I expect to struggle today, Watney, who's -1 score was helped greatly by his two on 17 and Ian Poulter, who on level par is probably priced about right at 28.027/1.

Jason Dufner on +2 and trading at 36.035/1 is very much of interest. Recovering from a bad start on the easier back nine, he was one of just six men to birdie the 1st. I was tempted to back him now but instead I'm going to wait and see how he starts off this morning. Yes he played the horror holes one to six well yesterday but that might not be the case today and watching and waiting makes sense.

Of the remainder, David Toms, under par and trading at 40.039/1 looks fairly priced and I wouldn't put anyone off Francesco Molinari and Robert Karlsson but look how many I've mentioned! I'm convinced it will have thinned out much more by the time England kick-off tonight and I'm going to do what I often do when things look so tough, and that's nothing. There's an awfully long way to go and taking no further action could well be the best cause of action right now.

One last thing from day one, the morning starters averaged 74.59, compared to the 75.26 averaged by the afternoon groups. The weather forecast suggests much the same conditions so hopefully the draw won't be that significant.

22:45 - June 14, 2012

I've thrown a few pounds at Angel Cabrera at 200.0199/1 after he's played just two holes! Fools rush in maybe but could El Pato win his third US PGA Tour event and his third major? His only previous wins in the states were this event in 2007 and the 2009 US Masters.

21:10 - June 14, 2012

I've boarded the Tiger Woods train at 4.33/1. He can only shorten-up from here until his tee-time tomorrow.

Safely in the house on -1, he's tied for second, three shots behind early leader Michael Thompson, who was matched at 1000.0n/a before the off. Thompson's lead is not as big a shock as you might imagine, in fact he's been tipped up in a few places. Thomson had finished second in the US Amateur here in 2007, so he had course experience - something that many in the field didn't have.

It's not going to get any easier for the afternoon starters and I can't imagine anyone getting to the leader, and I'd be quite surprised if many pass Tiger and co on -1.

18:15 - June 14, 2012

I was going to wait and kick this off tomorrow but given I've already placed a couple in-running wagers at the US Open I thought I'd get it started.

It was widely predicted that the start to Olympic Club would find a few out and that seems to be the case, after two and a quarter hours, 16 of the first 17 on the leaderboard had started from hole number nine. I've now backed the one player on the leaderboard, Jason Bohn at 150.0149/1, who has started at the 1st, and I've also backed Carl Pettersson after he started steadily. He was on the shortlist anyway and as I wrote in my Top Swede piece, his name has kept cropping up for a while now.

A bit early to get involved maybe but I can see this field thinning out very fast and I may well make a few more small and speculative plays yet today.

Of my pre-event picks, Phil Mickelson looks completely out of sorts. On +4, he's already seven behind early leader Branden Grace with all the hard holes to come and I've already resigned myself to the fact that he's a loser in the book. Y.E Yang hasn't fared much better and the best of mine on the course right now is 1000.0n/a shot Stephen Ames on +2. Not a good start.

Tiger Woods is struggling a bit with his distance control with his irons but other than that he looks in good form again and he's just birdied the par 5 17th to get back to level for the day.

Pre-event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ 26.025/1
Ernie Els @ 95.094/1
Y.E Yang @ 260.0259/1
Ben Crane @ 260.0259/1
Stephen Ames @ 1000.0n/a

In-Play wagers
Carl Pettersson @ 140.0139/1
Jason Bohn @ 150.0149/1
Tiger Woods @ 4.33/1
Angel Cabrera @ 200.0199/1
Graeme McDowell @ 17.516/1
Martin Kaymer @ 90.089/1

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Woods v McIlroy: Tiger has his claws out for Rory at Augusta

US Masters / Romilly Evans / 04 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

McIlroy and Woods - a burgeoning rivalry

"McIlroy is more settled both professionally and personally. He's learned to trust his ability under the gun. This time round he won’t panic if he lets a stroke or two slip away."

Romilly Evans discusses the showdown between Masters favourites Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy. Does our man believe that an outsider could upset the odds?

A few months ago, many hacks were saying there was no way back for Tiger Woods and no stopping Rory McIlroy. Now, as the US Masters looms in to view, most of those same hacks are saying the only man who can stop Rory McIlroy is Tiger Woods. Golf can be a fickle game - and it seems to have fostered a press corps which reflects its very nature.

The truth, of course, is that Tiger has been on the way back for a while. All you had to do was look at his steadily improving game since the back-end of last year and the progress reports. Admittedly, the progress reports from the great man himself were subjective, but his fellow pros and practice partners all suggested he was on the verge of something great.

Those players included Arjun Atwal, Robert Allenby, Ernie Els and even Phil Mickelson - expert witnesses for the defence. All Woods needed was a win. And after a couple of near-misses, it came a fortnight back at Bay Hill where he blitzed a stellar field by five shots. The prosecution's case quickly folded and Woods was acquitted on charges of masquerading as the game's greatest.

Tiger was free to roam around his natural habitat of Augusta National. He was even re-installed as a firm favourite (currently available at [6.2] to back). However, a return to the good old days among these green Georgia pastures is by no means assured. The golfing landscape has changed and that's largely due to the emergence of McIlroy ([7.4] to back) a successful and hungry predator who has been stealthily stalking, waiting on the return of a healthy Tiger.

This time last year, McIlroy still had much to prove. His final-round implosion at Augusta was one of the biggest falls from grace in Masters history - and even left him languishing outside the top-ten. Rather than an Aladdin on the threshold of The Cave of Wonders, he was a young street rat struggling for survival and composure.

After the breakdown, though, came the breakthrough. And it arrived in quite spectacular fashion with his crowning procession at Congressional, leading from flag-fall to win by eight shots. The wunderkind had grown up. He hasn't looked back since, winning twice and finished no lower than third in nine of his last 12 events. His win at the Honda Classic, where he coolly staved off a charging Woods even handed him the number one ranking - making him its second-youngest incumbent (at 22) behind Tiger (21).

True, Luke Donald has borrowed top-dog status in the interim (as McIlroy took his now annual sabbatical to prepare for the Masters). But like Easter weekend itself, it's only lent. And speaking of Easter weekend, there can be no ignoring its propensity for comebacks from the dead. McIlroy, for his part, now has to deal with the Tiger's second coming. Not that the Ulsterman sounds concerned. "It's great for the game. I want to test myself against the best, at their best. And for me, that means going down the stretch with Tiger." Bring it on.

Of course, Woods' renaissance does provide the neat side-effect of deflecting some of the attention away from McIlroy. "I'm going in with a lot more scrutiny because of what happened last year," he continued. "It's just something that I'll have to deal with but Tiger's win certainly helps." In any case, McIlroy is a totally different proposition this term after a milestone 2011 campaign. He is more settled both professionally and personally and has learned to trust his ability under the gun. This time round he won't panic if he lets a stroke or two slip away.

Nevertheless, Woods remains the consummate and proven major performer with four Green Jackets and numerous close shaves. Which is probably why he can afford to sound the more phlegmatic of the pair. "Listen, I've gone into Augusta with wins and without wins. You're looking for one week, that's all. I understand how to play Augusta National. It's just a matter of executing the game plan."

That said, Tiger hasn't executed his gameplan since the 2008 US Open, marooned on 14 majors - four short of Jack Nicklaus' record haul. Time was when passing that mark was simply a matter of time. Now the man with time on his side isn't Woods but McIlroy. Tiger's very urgency could be the one thing that undoes his challenge this week.

Does that leave the door ajar for McIlroy? Well, yes and no. The trouble with contests billed as two-horse races is that a dark horse often arrives to spoil the party. Take this year's Gold Cup for example, a supposed straight duel between Kauto Star and Long Run. The result: one pulled up, the other finished third. Phil Mickelson, who can lay claim to the best course form of anyone in the field, is always a threat and will be popular with those who like to back the outsider of three. Then there's the small matter of the other 94 runners, many of whom are decidedly in-form.

However, what is for certain is that fans can rejoice in a burgeoning new rivalry that we looked set to miss out on. The express train to major greatness had asked Tiger to hop off at Platform 14 and picked up Rory in his place. It was a sliding doors moment. Praise be that the driver had a change of heart and let Tiger back on. Next stop: Augusta.

What will it take to win the year's first major? Our man takes a look at past results and key trends at Augusta National and he also gives the reasoning behind his eight selections......

A trio of American golfers make appeal in the top-10 finish market, says Paul Krishnamurty...

Many will contend, only one will win. Here are five players who can finish up the field to reward an investment in the top 20 finish market...

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US Masters: Why Tiger Woods remains overrated

General / Ralph Ellis / 20 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Ralph won't be backing Tiger at Augusta

"In the Tiger Specials market he’s [1.27] to go through 2012 without getting any closer to his dream of catching the 18 majors of his boyhood idol Jack Nicklaus."

Tiger Woods has enjoyed a mini-resurgence of late and remains a popular in the Betfair markets. However, Ralph Ellis doesn't believe the former-world number is worth backing this spring...

Often it seems we enjoy knocking down the heroes we have so lovingly built up. But that theory doesn't apply to Tiger Woods.

It is more than two years now since the fateful Friday night when the life of the greatest golfer of the 21st century began to unravel, yet still most people can't accept that he has returned to the ranks of the mere mortals.

His game probably hit rock bottom last year when he dropped out of the world's top 50, and since then he's been slowly and solidly rebuilding. He won the World Golf Challenge - his own charity event - shared third at Abu Dhabi at the start of the 2012 season and was then second in the Honda Classic after shooting a 62 on Sunday. Yesterday he was producing a decent round alongside Justin Rose in the Tavistock Cup on behalf of the Albany Golf community in the Bahamas that he helped to build and finance.

He has climbed back to number 18 in the latest rankings, and it's a decent enough run of form, but that's about the right word: 'decent'. You could find other adjectives like 'solid', 'respectable', 'promising', or 'reasonable'. But they are the sort of way that somebody like Bo Van Pelt in 25th place is used to being described. For a man like Woods, who has lived his life with superlatives, none of them have the resonance of the way the Tiger of old was spoken of in exalted terms.
Yet the Woods aura remains. He is [9.2] favourite to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational this week. And he's second favourite at [9.6] behind Rory McIlroy in the betting for The Masters. For the life of me I can't understand why.

He's only just recovering from yet another injury, and while the latest Achilles problem might have come and gone relatively quickly it is still a sign that his overall physical fitness isn't right. He's going from one minor problem to another and that's no shape to be in ahead of a gruelling four day walk round Augusta.

What's worse there's another storm about to break across his personal life, with revelations from a kiss and tell book by former coach Hank Haney about some of the reasons behind his failed marriage. It brands him selfish and arrogant, a man so isolated from others that if he went to the fridge to get an ice pop he'd never get one for his coach at the same time.

The advance publicity suggests it will be a pretty tawdry volume. Having seen some exerts I'm not sure I'd bother to get Haney an ice pop either. Tiger has already said he 'won't waste my time reading it'. That's as may be, but he will find himself having to waste his time answering questions about some of the stories the book contains, and none of that is going to help a man trying to win his first Major since that amazing US Open in 2008.

Betfair's punters know that really. In the Tiger Specials market he's [1.27] to go through 2012 without getting any closer to his dream of catching the 18 majors of his boyhood idol Jack Nicklaus. But still the hope lingers that the old magic will return. It seems we know we will wait in vain - but we still won't stop waiting.

Five things you might not know about Bo Van Pelt

1. Born May 1975 in Richmond, Indiana, his father Bob was drafted for the NFL by the Philadelphia Eagles after a successful college American Football career

2. As a college golfer at Oklahoma State he got bored with the game and gave away his clubs - thankfully after three months he had a change of heart and the college coach Mike Holder found him some new ones.

3. He always insists on marking his own ball rather than letting his caddie do it - but always uses the ball marker on his glove because he hates to carry nickels in his pocket.

4. He's only ever won one PGA Tour event - in Milaukee in 2009 - but his career earnings top 13 million dollars.

5. He promotes a new range of clothing branded Alial Fital and designed by his friend retired NFL quarterback Gibran Hamdan.

There was drama galore in the final round of the WGC Cadillac with big ramifications for the Masters betting. Tiger Woods pulled out injured, Rory McIlroy finished strongly again, and Justin Rose won his first WGC event. Mike Norman reports......

Romilly Evans muses over the apparent difficulty in closing out golf events from the final-round lead....

Rory McIlroy is the new World Number One after a two-stroke victory at the Honda Classic. But joint runner-up there Tiger Woods was in imperious form himself and things are tight in the Betfair US Masters winner market....

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The Punter's In-Play Blog: Rock 'n Tiger on top

The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 29 January 2012 / 1 Comments

Tiger Woods, pushing clear of Rory

"The event looks to revolve around Tiger, and to a lesser extent, Rory, but should both fail to kick on tomorrow, it’s a very open heat and I’ve played three more picks just off the pace, just in case."

Tiger Woods is back, but can he finish the job off tomorrow? With a round to go, Steve's picked out three players at tasty prices, just in case he can't...

10.25 - January 29, 2012

I've now also layed Tiger Woods @ [2.16]. Rock and Woods now cancel each other out, so I'll just watch and hope for a shock result.

09.30 - January 29, 2012

For the record, I've just layed Robert Rock @ an average of [1.75]. There's a long way to go and I'll be surprised if he can hold his nerve sufficiently.

15.25 - January 28, 2012

There were times that I never thought I'd never see Tiger Woods play to a very high standard again, so watching him stalk the field for a few days before finding the front with a round to go at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship has been a pleasurable experience. Watching Rory McIlroy play alongside him has added to the spectacle delightfully and tomorrow should be very tasty.

The event is set up superbly now and the battle between Woods and Rory looks to have further mileage yet. Woods leads on -11, alongside Robert Rock, with four players two back on -9, one of which is Rory, and then there are four more on -8 and four on -7. Clearly, the event looks to revolve around Tiger, and to a lesser extent, Rory, but should both fail to kick on tomorrow, it's a very open heat and I've played three more picks just off the pace, just in case.

Thomas Bjorn will enjoy the forecast poor weather and on -7, he's not out of it. [110.0] was miles too big as play closed earlier. And I've also added Thorbjørn Olesen (-8) and Matteo Manassero (-7). Both faltered today after very low rounds yesterday and both are top-class youngsters who will possibly play a bit freer out of the spotlight tomorrow.

At the Farmers Insurance Open, Mickelson inevitably missed the cut and my in-running play, Bill Haas, lost his way after a good start. He's still in with a shout though, on -10 and four off Kyle Stanley's halfway lead. I'm going to let this one roll until tomorrow.

16.10 - January 27, 2012

Well, it took some doing, but Phil Mickelson, after I'd closed yesterday's entry by stating that I dare not say he could fare worse than Martin Kaymer and Alvaro Quiros, somehow managed to do just that!

On a day when birdies were flying in left right and centre, that ended with Spencer Levin and Kyle Stanley tied at the top on -10 (albeit after they'd played the easier North Course), my man Lefty shot +5!

Smashing, what a day! I'd backed the favourites at both tournaments and I'd ended Thursday with absolutely no chance, takes some doing that.

Such a scenario offers up several choices. I could simply give up on the week, I could chase my losses (never), or I could take another look, with lofty ambitions of getting my stakes back. Option one was very tempting, and if the truth be told, had I not this blog to write, I'd probably have gone down that route but it wouldn't make for very interesting reading if the entry solely read - off for a sulk, see you next week. So it's onwards and upwards, head down and let's find the value.

I'll start with events in Abu Dhabi, where we've now reached the halfway stage. As if to rub several handfuls of course, very stingy, sea salt into the gaping, and quite possibly sceptic, wounds, promising Dane Thorbjørn Olesen holds the halfway lead. I backed Thorbjørn many times last year and on a couple of occasions he nearly won me a good few quid, in particular at the Open de France. He was a pre-event [450.0] shot and I have to be honest, as I was completely and utterly blinded by Kaymer, backing him here never crossed my mind.

Can he go on and win? So far this event has only ever produced a top-class winner and in time Thorbjørn will be just that (if he isn't already) but the way he played his final hole today could speak volumes. It was a scruffy and even fortunate bogey and it may well auger what's to come tomorrow. As hugely talented as he is, winning here on his event debut against the quality of players on show has to be considered unlikely.

The market can't decide between Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy as to who should be fav. They're both [4.7] and they're both on -5. Rory, who made the most ridiculous double bogey on the 9th when he was penalised two strokes for brushing sand away (what was he thinking!), is struggling off the tee, just as Tiger Woods is starting to get to grips with the greens. It's a fascinating duel and one I'm looking forward to watching but I can't see any value on backing either so I've tried to see if there's any further down the list and I think I may have found some.

Graeme McDowell's stats look excellent. So far he's ranked 12th for Driving Accuracy and 6th for Greens In regulation. His driver broke on day one and that severely hampered his scoring and he improved on Thursday's level par by three today, shooting -3. Two back of Woods and Rors, with the wind due to get up on Sunday and a new driver in the bag, McDowell could just be where the halfway value lies.

I was going to leave the Farmers Insurance Open alone for the time being but I can't resist the [10.0] available about Fed-Ex Cup champ, Bill Haas, who shot -9 on day one. Bill wobbled a bit last year and should have figured in the finish. A year on, he's quite obviously a more experienced player and I can see him hanging around until the end. Famous last words...again!

On a far, far brighter note, in times of strife one has to derive enjoyment where best one can and I've just discovered the delights of grilled malt loaf. Well worth a try and extremely yummy. See you tomorrow.

15.10 - January 26, 2012

Well, my awful start to the year continues at pace. As a Manchester City fan, following last night's Carling Cup semi-final departure at the hands of Liverpool (and the ref), I was pretty fed-up when I slumped off to bed last night. This morning's golf has failed to cheer me up.

As Tiger Woods was playing the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship for the first time and given he was teeing off early, alongside Rory McIlroy, Sky decided to put on an extra two-and-half hours of live coverage, starting at the ungodly time of 3.30am. Something I didn't know about until late last night. I didn't get up early, but I did wake at 5.30am, when I watched the early coverage on fast-forward.

Why weren't they showing anything of Alvaro Quiros I wondered? They kept on showing Darren Clarke and Jason Day, playing in Alvaro's three-ball. Had he withdrawn? Then they showed him play an impressive approach shot to the 13th hole, his fourth hole of the day. And there was the disappointing little caption in the corner of the screen... Alvaro Quiros +3.

That's why they hadn't shown him. Who wants to watch someone bogey three holes in-a-row to start the day? I certainly didn't. Oh well, I thought, I'll just have to rely on solid dependable Martin Kaymer.

Kaymer had played the Abu Dhabi Golf Course 18 times, shooting a ridiculously impressive average score of 67.55. He'd won three of the last four events here and was second in the other. I was extremely confident and I'd backed him accordingly. What could go wrong?

After 19 rounds, he has a still very impressive average score of 68.05 but he'll not be making it four wins in five. After double-bogeying the 1st hole, he went on to shoot 77 and now trails first round leaders Rory McIlroy and Robert Karlsson by fully ten shots. And that is too high a mountain to climb.

I can't get too down about it, I backed him in each of the last two years when he won, so I've had the smooth, it's now time to accept the rough and I'm going to hang fire for now and watch and wait. By far the most likely winner is Rory but I'm not going to steam into him at less than [4.0] with three rounds to go.

Woods and Rory both played some great golf this morning, but both very differently and both looked like they could improve, especially Rory. Although Tiger played well from tee to green he putted poorly and didn't seem confident with the flatstick. He left putts uncharacteristically short on several occasions. In contrast, Rory struggled to find the fairways all day and missed a third of the greens too, but his short game was sharp and decisive. If he can find his game off the tee tomorrow, the rest could be in big trouble.

I'll be back sometime tomorrow, with a look at the state of play at halfway. Hopefully, my sole bet at the Farmers Insurance Open, Phil Mickelson, will have fared a bit better than Quiros and Kaymer. I dare not say he couldn't do worse!

Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship Pre-event Selections
Martin Kaymer @ an average of [8.2]
Alvaro Quiros @ [36.0]

In-running play
Graeme McDowell @ [55.0]
Thorbjørn Olesen @ [50.0]
Matteo Manassero @ [85.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [110.0]

Farmers Insurance Open Pre-event Selection
Phil Mickelson @ [16.5]

In-running play
Bill Haas @ [10.0]

Our man runs the rule over this week's PGA Tour action, where Phil Mickelson will be trying to make up for last year's near miss. Read Steve's thoughts here......

The Punter previews this week's Race to Dubai action, where a stellar field will attempt to halt Martin Kaymer's Abu Dhabi dominance......

It's been a frustrating week for The Punter but he remains philosophical (just) as he looks forward to next week and beyond......

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The Betfair Contrarian: Why Tiger Woods will miss the cut at the Frys.com Open

Golf Bets / The Betfair Contrarian / 05 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Prepare to see Tiger grimacing plenty on Thursday and Friday

"Tiger no longer backs up his confidence on the fairways, going two years without a win, and if anything the results are getting worse rather than better."

The greatest golfer of this generation is fit, in form and ready to go - or so we were told - but after a string of poor performances we say he won't even make it to the weekend at the Frys.com Open

There's hope that Tiger Woods has finally completed his seemingly endless run up to the comeback trail after hiring a new caddy in Joe LaCava and setting a new course record of 62 practising at the Medalist Golf Club in Florida. This isn't the first time that the Contrarian has been warned that Tiger is back though. In fact, he has heard it so often over the last year or two that he is now immune to all of the excitement. He's advising you to treat his latest attempt to bounce back with similar disdain, especially as there are odds of [3.75] available on him failing to make the cut...

There are no legitimate signs of improvement
Woods talks a good game before each tournament that he enters, but then that has never been a problem for the 14-time major champion. The issue is that he no longer backs up his confidence on the fairways, going two years without a win, and if anything the results are getting worse rather than better. He has missed the cut of three competitions in the last 27 months, having fared that badly just three times in almost 12 years prior to that, and whereas in 2010, he was a frequent fixture in the top-25 of events, he has placed that highly in only three of the eight he has completed in 2011.

He was cut last time out
You have to go back just two months to find the last example of Woods heading into a tournament with high hopes of a return to greatness, targeting victory in the PGA Championship. However, on that occasion it proved woefully misguided as his participation was ended prematurely after two rounds of 77 and 73 left him ten over par. That was the first time in his career that he was forced to put his clubs in the boot halfway through the final major of the year, in his 14th entry in the competition.

It can take a while to gel with a new caddy
Woods will be aware that in LaCava he is getting an experienced and well-regarded caddy following his triumphs with friend Fred Couples, but relationships between golfers and bagmen can be slow off the mark. Indeed, LaCava endured high-profile early disappointments with Couples, failing to make the cut at the 1990 US Open, and Dustin Johnson, missing it at this year's PGA Championship. Clearly, the Frys.com Open isn't on anywhere near the same level as those majors, indeed it's an event Woods wouldn't even be involved in were it not for his slump. However, it a hugely significant moment in his season, the chance to show that the personnel change has had a positive impact on his form and bid to end his drought in a competition that he is surprisingly the [7.0] favourite to win.

His Medalist success is almost irrelevant
The aforementioned feat of the former world number one - now 51 in the rankings - in setting a new record at the Medalist Golf Course was no doubt encouraging, but there is a big difference between performing in a non-competitive environment at your home course and delivering in a tournament, especially one that you have never played in before. The Contrarian made the mistake of reading too much into his practice displays, which were earning rave reviews, before last year's Masters and US Open, yet on the key weekend when it mattered most, he was unable to meet expectations both times.

Tiger returns this week but he doesn't make Dan Geraghty's trio in his Three Against the Field column for the Frys.com Open...

This week's Madrid Masters has yet another new venue, but Mike Norman believes the course will play perfectly into the hands of a trio of big-hitters....

The next four weeks on the European Tour are all about Spain and Portugal which allows Paul Krishnamurty to pick out six players who have played well there in the past or who arrive at the Madrid Masters in particularly...

Two proven performers on the world stage can boost themselves up the money list with a strong showing at the Frys.com Open, denying Tiger Woods and helping us to a handy profit, says Paul Krishnamurty...

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Golf News: Tiger bets are still worth bagging

General / Ralph Ellis / 21 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Wililams and Woods in happier times

"Williams may be off the Woods bag now, but somebody else will pick it up and start collecting those ten per cents."

Tiger Woods has parted company with his long serving (suffering?) caddy but, as Ralph Ellis explains, it's still too early to write off the former-world number one.

Quiz question: Name New Zealand's most successful sportsman. Maybe it would be Richie McCaw or Mils Muliaina who both have 94 caps for the All Blacks? Then again Jonah Lomu would have to be the most iconic rugby player from the Islands. In cricket Richard Hadlee probably comes top of the list.

Wrong all round. The Kiwi who's made the most money from sport is a golfer who has never swung a club in anger at a major competition. Steve Williams has picked up a fortune out of caddying for Tiger Woods - estimated at around £20million as his take from 10 per cent of the former world number one's prize money.

No more. Woods has just ditched the man who carried his bag for 13 of 14 Major wins. It's a split that's been on the cards since Williams, whose wife was close friends with Tiger's ex Elin, made comments last year about his boss's personal life as his world was unravelling.

Williams will now go full time with Australian Adam Scott, for whom he worked at the US Open and The Open. Meanwhile the top caddies are already lining up to see who gets the gig to replace him. Dustin Johnson's caddie Joe LaCava is thought to be the man Woods wants, although ironically the other name in the frame is Scott's former bagman Moline Navarro.

At Sandwich, Scott was full of enthusiasm for the contribution he thought Williams could make. After two days, when the Aussie was one under and in contention, he was telling we reporters: "Steve's got experience and if he can say the right word here, or pick the right club there, it could make all the difference." Sadly it didn't, as he finished up tied 25th and seven over. The conclusion is that however good a caddie Williams was for all those years, it was Tiger's golf that really made the difference!

Betfair's market doesn't fancy their chances at the USPGA either - Scott is an outsider at [70.0]. So the big question remains when Tiger will return and just how good he'll be when that happens. He is now as short as [1.02] in the Specials market to go another year without winning his 15th Major and the people who backed that back in January at even money are sitting pretty.

I'm not sure that even if Woods does return to play in the USPGA he'll be ready to win. But I do fancy laying him to finish the year without a PGA Tour victory at as low as [1.3]. Now down to 20 in the latest world rankings, there's so much pride at stake for him, and the man who will make the biggest difference to Tiger is not his caddy, but his coach Sean Foley who has been remodelling his swing to put less stress on his knees. Foley's been doing that for nearly a year now, and according to his other current star pupil Justin Rose that's about the amount of time it takes for swing changes to take effect.

Williams may be off the Woods bag now, but somebody else will pick it up and start collecting those ten per cents. There could yet be more big money to be earned.

Five things you might not know about Adam Scott

1. Born July 1980 in Adelaide, dad Phil was an ex pro golfer whose career was spoiled by a motorcycle accident when he was 19. He then ran a company called Mascot golf that manufactured wooden drivers, fairway woods and putters.

2. Mum was also a single figure handicap golfer, so Adam got the bug. He was 13 the first time he beat his dad by scoring under 70 at their local club.

3. Greg Norman helped mentor his early career and advised him to play the European Tour before going to America. He lived in London for seven years and developed a passion for architecture and design. Sir Norman Foster is his favourite.

4. Voted in the top five for a magazine poll to find the "sexiest male golfer", he has dated Ana Ivanovic since splitting with long time girlfriend Marie Kojzar and Maria Sharapova has said she has fantasies about him

5. He's got homes on Australia's Gold Coast and in Crans sur Sierre in Switzerland where he's neighbours with Sergio Garcia - although he says they've never both been there on the same day.

We may have seen some recent shocks at the Majors but the Senior British Open tends to be dominated by the game's elder leading lights. Paul Krishnamurty weighs up a stellar field for this week's event....

Ralph Ellis explains why the likes of Lee Westwood will have to put up with questions about his world ranking until he wins at least one Major....

Mr Woods has shown that golf is still his no.1 priority but while he searches for his A-game, Westwood, Donald et al are the best bets for major glory...

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US Open Reaction: Salute magnificent McIlroy but don't back a repeat of the Tiger era

Golf > General > US Open Reaction: Salute magnificent McIlroy but don't back a repeat of the Tiger era

View Market General / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Woods and McIlroy together in California last year

"Golf and golf betting are completely different than they were during the Tiger era, and it would be unrealistic to expect Rory or anyone else to emulate Woods' dominance."

Paul Krishnamurty was as impressed as anyone by the young Irishman's performance at Congressional. However, it's unlikely that he will emulate Tiger's other-stratospheric feats and punters should remember that.

For now, we must bask in the moment. We've just witnessed an incredible feat, and a new British sporting hero has emerged. With some of the other 'icons' that represent, say, our football teams in mind, we should celebrate the fact that Rory McIlroy seems such a likeable, genuine bloke. It is unbridled good news for British golf, in particular Northern Ireland, which has now produced the last two US Open winners. Rory's breakthrough is exactly what the sport needed, especially with its talisman Tiger Woods increasingly resembling a spent force.

Having spent a relatively quiet trading weekend pondering Rory's sensational performance, I've concluded that it was the fourth best I've ever seen. For the record, the other three were all produced by Tiger - in no particular order, his first Masters victory, by 12 strokes just a few months after turning pro. His 15-shot victory in the 2000 US Open at Pebble Beach, and again when landing this major in 2008, despite playing 90 holes with a broken leg.

I couldn't agree more with Steve Rawling's analysis that after such a performance, Rory is the real world number one, even if the rankings don't quite reflect it yet. Moreover, having captured the public imagination in spectacular style, he's certainly the punters' favourite, as illustrated by the massive gamble underway for next month's Open Championship. McIlroy's odds for the Sandwich showpiece have halved into [7.4] over the last few days, and were he to win in the meantime, would probably shorten to Tiger-esque levels.

At this point, serious punters must take a step back. No matter how good they are, everyone has their price, and I would struggle to manufacture an argument for backing any golfer nowadays at such short odds. Ultimately, golf and golf betting are completely different than they were during the Tiger era, and it would be unrealistic to expect Rory or anyone else to match Woods' former dominance.

Tiger transformed golf single-handedly. Before that first Masters title, Woods shared favouritism with much older players like Greg Norman, Nick Faldo and Fred Couples. Within months it became clear that they were yesterday's men. That isn't the case with Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, who are at their peak right now and remain as likely as anyone to win big events.

For roughly a decade, Woods was playing a different game to the rest. He had seemingly super-human ability, and a machine-like temperament, capable of stepping up a gear whenever required. I always argued that Tiger's only sporting equivalent was Sir Donald Bradman, whose 99.99 Test average remains in a completely different stratosphere to anyone else. However good Rory is or will become, it is unlikely that will ever be said of him.

Woods inspired a new generation, that would take several years to emerge. McIlroy is the first to reach super-stardom, but there is no shortage of alternatives. The USA has Rickie Fowler, Italy has Matteo Manassero, Japan has Ryo Ishikawa. Emerging golf superpowers like South Korea can boast numerous brilliant youngsters. My favourite is Aussie Jason Day, who did me an enormous favour yesterday by winning 'without McIlroy'. To finish runner-up on both his Masters and US Open debuts, two majors that usually reward experience and penalise novices, is a huge achievement. Day has less top-notch experience than Rory, and could well reach the same level over the next year or so.

Whoever fares best amongst them, dominating that lot will be impossible in my view. Moreover, by the time Rory hits 30, there's bound to be another dozen or so youngsters emerging, and prompting exactly this type of discussion.

More immediately though, we must look to Sandwich, where Rory's chance depends on the weather. In calm conditions, McIlroy is probably the best links player around. Even before he turned pro, he'd mastered the secrets of links golf, growing up in Northern Ireland. However, in windy conditions, Rory's high ball-flight has looked a serious handicap, and he lacks the verstility to cope. Take last year's Open for example, where he began with 63 in benign conditions at St Andrews, only to follow up with 80 when the weather turned for the worse the following day.

With his reputation and popularity at an all-time high, I expect the money will continue to flood in before the Open, but punters would be well advised to check the draw and weather forecast before parting with any cash.

Ralph Ellis explains why the likes of Lee Westwood will have to put up with questions about his world ranking until he wins at least one Major....

Mr Woods has shown that golf is still his no.1 priority but while he searches for his A-game, Westwood, Donald et al are the best bets for major glory...

Small tweaks can make major improvements to the world's best golfers as evidenced by Graeme McDowell's meteoric rise. Paul Krishnamurty picks four who could replicate GMac's progress in 2011...

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US Master 2011: Should Tiger Woods be favourite?

US Masters / Mike Norman / 28 March 2011 / 1 Comments

Tiger Woods is the favourite to win this year’s US Masters and claim his fifth green jacket

"In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger’s stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour – that’s almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning form here."

Mike Norman has been quite vocal in opposing Tiger Woods since he returned to the game, and now he is pleading for your help to explain why the great man is favourite to win next week's US Masters.

There aren't many people who have lived in the world who are instantly recognisable by name to almost every adult human being. Elvis Presley and Michael Jackson were two such people, and perhaps also are Princess Diana and Marilyn Monroe. And from the sporting world we can add the likes of Pele and Muhammad Ali to that list.

And of course, who hasn't heard of Tiger Woods?

Even my girlfriend has heard of Tiger, and she is someone who knows so little about what's going on in the world that she still thinks a Chilean miner is a kid that hasn't wrapped up properly!

Now, unless you were on a different planet a year ago you'll know that Mr Woods went through a pretty traumatic time off the golf course. But what about on the golf course? If you're not an avid follower of golf, but like so many people you love having a punt on the US Masters (it's how I got into golf betting), then Tiger will be the first name that springs to mind. You'll notice that he is still ranked amongst the world's top-five players, you'll remember that he has a fantastic record round Augusta National, and you'll see that he is the current [10.0] favourite to don his fifth green jacket next Sunday evening.

But the picture I've just painted above is very murky; a much clearer picture is painted below.

The Official Golf World Rankings are calculated on a player's previous two years of performances, so in Tiger's case, his five PGA Tour wins (and three second place finishes) between June 2009 and news breaking about his personal life are calculated in the rankings you see today.

Since Tiger returned to golfing action this time last year he has very rarely hit the heights he did pre-scandal. In fact, based on his performances in 2010 alone Tiger ranked number 41 in the world for that calendar year. And it doesn't get any better this year. So far in 2011, more than 75 players have accumulated more ranking points than Tiger. Effectively then, the great man - who is currently ranked number five in the world remember - is languishing somewhere outside the world's top 50 if you compile a list based on everyone's performances from January 2010 onwards.

So what about course form? Some will argue - me included - that course form is vital in golf betting. But the key is that it is only vital when a golfer is playing to a similar standard as at the time when a certain course gave him an edge. Tiger is not playing to the standard he was 18 months ago - nowhere near it in fact - so therefore his previous record at the Masters is easily overlooked. In winning four times at Augusta National, Tiger's stroke average is 68.375. Since his return last year he has averaged close to 71.2 on the PGA Tour - that's almost 12 strokes per tournament below his winning scores in Georgia.

And remember, Tiger also has an incredible record at Firestone Country Club (seven wins) and at Bay Hill (six wins), but in his current guise he finished 78th and 24th respectively at those venues.

Tiger's personal problems have undoubtedly contributed to his regression, and whether or not he brought those problems on himself, I will never criticise him for that. What many will criticise him for however is his decision to change his golf swing. True, it's not the finished article yet but Tiger is driving the ball appallingly at times. He ranks just 187th in Driving Accuracy, one of the key stats you look at when selecting a likely US Masters winner.

And of the other key stats required next week Tiger ranks just 105th in Putting - for so many years the strongest part of his game - and 135th in Sand Saves.

Put simply, Tiger is normal again. He is about the 50th best player in the world on form shown since early last year; he is averaging close to 12 shots per tournament worse than his previous winning US Masters scores; he has recently played poorly at venues where he was previously brilliant; he hasn't won in 20 competitive tournaments; and his 2011 PGA Tour stats don't inspire any confidence whatsoever.

Yet Tiger Woods is the [10.0] favourite to win one of the most hotly-contested golf tournaments of the season. I'm relying on you good people to please tell me why.

Mickelson may have scuppered his bet last year but Steve's playing the percentages again this time around......

An Augusta ace is perfectly possible, but patience will be rewarded......

Dan Fitch takes a look at the golfers who made winning majors into a habit....

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Only punters fear Tiger Woods these days...

Tiger Woods / Ralph Ellis / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Tiger pictured not enjoying himself during the final round of the Farmers Insurance Open

"The only people scared of Tiger now appear to be punters. How else do you explain that, after a year without winning a tournament, he’s already been installed as favourite for every single Major of 2011?"

Tiger's turmoil continued on the weekend with a 44th place finish at a venue, Torrey Pines, where he was previously impregnable. And yet he is still odds on for a major win in 2011, says a shocked Ralph Ellis

On holiday in Spain I once found myself playing what must have been the world's only 13 hole golf course. Unlucky in more ways than one. It wasn't meant to be that way. It had been built, snaking through beautiful orange groves, with 18 challenging holes surrounded by luxury villas.

Sadly for the people who had moved there with promises of a golden retirement the money for maintenance ran out, the developers disappeared, and the only solution had been to leave some of the greens to go wild.

If they are still there, the remaining residents can feel proud of that this morning - or at least compared to the first ever Tiger Woods-designed golfing centre in Dubai. There, it appears, only six holes have been completed on what was meant to be a 1.1billion dollar development. Word is that not only are they abandoning the rest of the plan, but will stop watering what has been built. In six months the desert will take over again.

That's bad news for the people who had already put down deposits to secure the mansions which were designed to overlook the fairways. But it just about sums up how the world of Woods has come crashing down in little more than 12 months since that early hours car accident which blew open the whole charade of his private life.

It seems he's been in therapy, both for his life and his golf swing, ever since. And so far nothing seems to have halted the decline either off or on the course. He's even more surly than ever, this weekend even refusing to answer straightforward questions about his schedule. And after finishing tied in 44th place in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines there's no sign of his ability to win coming back either.

The man who once intimidated everyone who found themselves drawn to play him was even put in the shade by Venezuala's rising star Jhonattan Vegas.

The only people scared of Tiger now appear to be punters. How else do you explain that, after a year without winning a tournament, he's already been installed as favourite for every single Major of 2011? All logic says that's a bargain chance to lay him, and also to take the near even money [1.95] on offer in Betfair's Tiger Specials market for him to win no Majors at all.

Amazingly he's as short as [5.9] for The Masters, while the man who has taken over as world number one Lee Westwood is [15.0]. Last year's winner Phil Mickelson is nearly twice the price at [10.0]. Paul Casey, who picked up his first trophy of the season by calmly holing an eight foot putt on the last in Bahrain, is [34.0].

All the evidence says the Tiger era is over. Sadly his reality is that, just like that unfinished development in the Dubai desert, he doesn't appear capable any longer of putting more than six good holes together.

Five things you might not know about Jhonattan Vegas
1. Born in the Venezualan capital of Maturin in August 1984, dad Carlos and mum Mauritza did the catering on a nine-hole golf course built for American oil workers.
2. He was four years old when his grandfather taught him to play the game using a broomstick and a rock
3. He left home aged 17 to seek his fortune in North America - his father forbade him from attending a baseball game for fear he would be trampled by the crowds
4. He won a golf scholarship to the University of Texas where a local property developer Dick Kemp became his legal guardian to help subsidise his progress. Kemp has now taken the same role for Jhonattan's younger brother Julio who also plays golf at the University
5. He spoke only ten words of English when first moving to America, but has completed his university degree in Kinesiology, the science of human movement

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