The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 29 January 2012 / 1 Comments 
Tiger Woods, pushing clear of Rory
"The event looks to revolve around Tiger, and to a lesser extent, Rory, but should both fail to kick on tomorrow, it’s a very open heat and I’ve played three more picks just off the pace, just in case."
Tiger Woods is back, but can he finish the job off tomorrow? With a round to go, Steve's picked out three players at tasty prices, just in case he can't...
10.25 - January 29, 2012
I've now also layed Tiger Woods @ [2.16]. Rock and Woods now cancel each other out, so I'll just watch and hope for a shock result.
09.30 - January 29, 2012
For the record, I've just layed Robert Rock @ an average of [1.75]. There's a long way to go and I'll be surprised if he can hold his nerve sufficiently.
15.25 - January 28, 2012
There were times that I never thought I'd never see Tiger Woods play to a very high standard again, so watching him stalk the field for a few days before finding the front with a round to go at the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship has been a pleasurable experience. Watching Rory McIlroy play alongside him has added to the spectacle delightfully and tomorrow should be very tasty.
The event is set up superbly now and the battle between Woods and Rory looks to have further mileage yet. Woods leads on -11, alongside Robert Rock, with four players two back on -9, one of which is Rory, and then there are four more on -8 and four on -7. Clearly, the event looks to revolve around Tiger, and to a lesser extent, Rory, but should both fail to kick on tomorrow, it's a very open heat and I've played three more picks just off the pace, just in case.
Thomas Bjorn will enjoy the forecast poor weather and on -7, he's not out of it. [110.0] was miles too big as play closed earlier. And I've also added Thorbjørn Olesen (-8) and Matteo Manassero (-7). Both faltered today after very low rounds yesterday and both are top-class youngsters who will possibly play a bit freer out of the spotlight tomorrow.
At the Farmers Insurance Open, Mickelson inevitably missed the cut and my in-running play, Bill Haas, lost his way after a good start. He's still in with a shout though, on -10 and four off Kyle Stanley's halfway lead. I'm going to let this one roll until tomorrow.
16.10 - January 27, 2012
Well, it took some doing, but Phil Mickelson, after I'd closed yesterday's entry by stating that I dare not say he could fare worse than Martin Kaymer and Alvaro Quiros, somehow managed to do just that!
On a day when birdies were flying in left right and centre, that ended with Spencer Levin and Kyle Stanley tied at the top on -10 (albeit after they'd played the easier North Course), my man Lefty shot +5!
Smashing, what a day! I'd backed the favourites at both tournaments and I'd ended Thursday with absolutely no chance, takes some doing that.
Such a scenario offers up several choices. I could simply give up on the week, I could chase my losses (never), or I could take another look, with lofty ambitions of getting my stakes back. Option one was very tempting, and if the truth be told, had I not this blog to write, I'd probably have gone down that route but it wouldn't make for very interesting reading if the entry solely read - off for a sulk, see you next week. So it's onwards and upwards, head down and let's find the value.
I'll start with events in Abu Dhabi, where we've now reached the halfway stage. As if to rub several handfuls of course, very stingy, sea salt into the gaping, and quite possibly sceptic, wounds, promising Dane Thorbjørn Olesen holds the halfway lead. I backed Thorbjørn many times last year and on a couple of occasions he nearly won me a good few quid, in particular at the Open de France. He was a pre-event [450.0] shot and I have to be honest, as I was completely and utterly blinded by Kaymer, backing him here never crossed my mind.
Can he go on and win? So far this event has only ever produced a top-class winner and in time Thorbjørn will be just that (if he isn't already) but the way he played his final hole today could speak volumes. It was a scruffy and even fortunate bogey and it may well auger what's to come tomorrow. As hugely talented as he is, winning here on his event debut against the quality of players on show has to be considered unlikely.
The market can't decide between Tiger Woods and Rory McIlroy as to who should be fav. They're both [4.7] and they're both on -5. Rory, who made the most ridiculous double bogey on the 9th when he was penalised two strokes for brushing sand away (what was he thinking!), is struggling off the tee, just as Tiger Woods is starting to get to grips with the greens. It's a fascinating duel and one I'm looking forward to watching but I can't see any value on backing either so I've tried to see if there's any further down the list and I think I may have found some.
Graeme McDowell's stats look excellent. So far he's ranked 12th for Driving Accuracy and 6th for Greens In regulation. His driver broke on day one and that severely hampered his scoring and he improved on Thursday's level par by three today, shooting -3. Two back of Woods and Rors, with the wind due to get up on Sunday and a new driver in the bag, McDowell could just be where the halfway value lies.
I was going to leave the Farmers Insurance Open alone for the time being but I can't resist the [10.0] available about Fed-Ex Cup champ, Bill Haas, who shot -9 on day one. Bill wobbled a bit last year and should have figured in the finish. A year on, he's quite obviously a more experienced player and I can see him hanging around until the end. Famous last words...again!
On a far, far brighter note, in times of strife one has to derive enjoyment where best one can and I've just discovered the delights of grilled malt loaf. Well worth a try and extremely yummy. See you tomorrow.
15.10 - January 26, 2012
Well, my awful start to the year continues at pace. As a Manchester City fan, following last night's Carling Cup semi-final departure at the hands of Liverpool (and the ref), I was pretty fed-up when I slumped off to bed last night. This morning's golf has failed to cheer me up.
As Tiger Woods was playing the Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship for the first time and given he was teeing off early, alongside Rory McIlroy, Sky decided to put on an extra two-and-half hours of live coverage, starting at the ungodly time of 3.30am. Something I didn't know about until late last night. I didn't get up early, but I did wake at 5.30am, when I watched the early coverage on fast-forward.
Why weren't they showing anything of Alvaro Quiros I wondered? They kept on showing Darren Clarke and Jason Day, playing in Alvaro's three-ball. Had he withdrawn? Then they showed him play an impressive approach shot to the 13th hole, his fourth hole of the day. And there was the disappointing little caption in the corner of the screen... Alvaro Quiros +3.
That's why they hadn't shown him. Who wants to watch someone bogey three holes in-a-row to start the day? I certainly didn't. Oh well, I thought, I'll just have to rely on solid dependable Martin Kaymer.
Kaymer had played the Abu Dhabi Golf Course 18 times, shooting a ridiculously impressive average score of 67.55. He'd won three of the last four events here and was second in the other. I was extremely confident and I'd backed him accordingly. What could go wrong?
After 19 rounds, he has a still very impressive average score of 68.05 but he'll not be making it four wins in five. After double-bogeying the 1st hole, he went on to shoot 77 and now trails first round leaders Rory McIlroy and Robert Karlsson by fully ten shots. And that is too high a mountain to climb.
I can't get too down about it, I backed him in each of the last two years when he won, so I've had the smooth, it's now time to accept the rough and I'm going to hang fire for now and watch and wait. By far the most likely winner is Rory but I'm not going to steam into him at less than [4.0] with three rounds to go.
Woods and Rory both played some great golf this morning, but both very differently and both looked like they could improve, especially Rory. Although Tiger played well from tee to green he putted poorly and didn't seem confident with the flatstick. He left putts uncharacteristically short on several occasions. In contrast, Rory struggled to find the fairways all day and missed a third of the greens too, but his short game was sharp and decisive. If he can find his game off the tee tomorrow, the rest could be in big trouble.
I'll be back sometime tomorrow, with a look at the state of play at halfway. Hopefully, my sole bet at the Farmers Insurance Open, Phil Mickelson, will have fared a bit better than Quiros and Kaymer. I dare not say he couldn't do worse!
Abu Dhabi HSBC Golf Championship Pre-event Selections
Martin Kaymer @ an average of [8.2]
Alvaro Quiros @ [36.0]
In-running play
Graeme McDowell @ [55.0]
Thorbjørn Olesen @ [50.0]
Matteo Manassero @ [85.0]
Thomas Bjorn @ [110.0]
Farmers Insurance Open Pre-event Selection
Phil Mickelson @ [16.5]
In-running play
Bill Haas @ [10.0]
Our man runs the rule over this week's PGA Tour action, where Phil Mickelson will be trying to make up for last year's near miss. Read Steve's thoughts here......
The Punter previews this week's Race to Dubai action, where a stellar field will attempt to halt Martin Kaymer's Abu Dhabi dominance......
It's been a frustrating week for The Punter but he remains philosophical (just) as he looks forward to next week and beyond......
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