Steve takes a close look at the state of play at halfway, where only three players are under-par...
11:00 - June 16, 2012
We've reached the halfway stage of the 112th US Open and look how tough it is; all but three players are over-par. And look who the three are, three experienced major champions.
Halfway Leaderboard with prices to back as at 10.40am
Tiger Woods -1 2.681/1
Jim Furyk -1 6.85/1
David Toms -1 11.010/1
Graeme McDowell +1 17.016/1
Nicholas Colsaerts +1 28.027/1
Michael Thompson +1 80.079/1
John Peterson +1 110.0109/1
Blake Adams +2 90.089/1
+3 Bar
With the course playing so viciously hard it always looked likely that the field would thin out considerably and it has. As pointed out in my preview, in the last 16 years, no winner has been more than two shots off the halfway lead so we probably shouldn't look beyond those listed above for the 2012 winner but I don't see it as quite that simple at Olympic Club.
Graeme McDowell did very little wrong late in his second round yesterday yet dropped three shots in four holes. It's a demanding test in the extreme and it's not beyond the realms of possibility that the four market leaders could all stumble to varying degrees and that someone could sneak into the picture before tomorrow. If that is to happen though, they're going to have to play incredibly well, the best score anyone could manage yesterday was three-under par, shot par by Hunter Hamrick.
I'm glad to have Tiger Woods onside but I'm not sure I'd want to back him at his current price. So exacting is the examination set that he only has to be off his game a fraction and he'll tumble out of the picture, as so many did yesterday.
Woods' good pal and playing partner in round three, Jim Furyk, has to be given the utmost respect and as I said yesterday, I really do expect him to hang around. A week ago I looked hard at backing Furyk at odds of 55.054/1 but I felt then, as I still do now, that Jim will always find someone to beat him. That said, with so few in-contention, there aren't that many around to do the job now.
I've no idea how much credence you can give it in the context of this event, but David Toms has a poor third round scoring record this year and of the front four in the betting, he's the one I can see struggling today. He's led or been tied for the lead in six events since 2006 on the PGA Tour but converted only once and on that occasion, at last year's Crowne Plaza Invitational, he shot 74 in round three to relinquish a seven-shot lead before bouncing back on Sunday to win by one.
I've been impressed with G-Mac so far and I'm happy to have him onside. He plays in the 22.45 two-ball with Nicholas Colsaerts in a rematch of the recent Volvo World Match Play final. The big-hitting Belgian has surprised me I must admit but every credit has to be given to Mike Norman, who advocated his chances in his form guide.
As you can see by their current odds, first round leader Michael Thompson, 36-year-old Tour maiden Blake Adams and brand new pro John Peterson aren't expected to win and it's hard to imagine any of them coping with the pressure.
There are currently ten top-class players on +3 or worse for the tournament, trading at a double-figure price, with Matt Kuchar at 30.029/1, the shortest but I can't see any value in playing any of them. The above stat re being within two is off-putting, and given the first six holes are so tough and that anyone playing catch-up can't afford to drop shots there, I think waiting to see how they all start seems sensible.
If you do want to get with someone just off the pace, as Paul Krishnamurty points out here, why not wait until they reach the 7th tee? Kuchar double-bogeyed the 1st hole yesterday and bogeyed the 3rd. If he repeats that feat today he'll be trading at a triple-figure price in no time, so 30.029/1 makes very little appeal.
If I had to pick one of those trading in double figures, it would be Steve Stricker. Presently just a shot worse than Kuchar, at 85.084/1 he looks a far better value play, though I really do think waiting and playing in-running makes more sense.
17:15 - June 15, 2012
It isn't getting any easier, Rickie Fowler opens up with a triple-bogey on the 1st. Rory McIlroy heading out by the looks of it, now +2 for the day and +9 for the tournament. And I've had a very small play on Martin Kaymer at 90.089/1. There'll be nobody left soon!
Lookout for Lee Westwood. -1 for the round and now +2 for the event.
16:50 - June 15, 2012
Jim Furyk, Matt Kuchar and Nick Watney all going backwards, so Graeme McDowell added to the portfolio at 17.516/1.
11:05 - June 15, 2012
What a fantastic first day at the US Open, who could ask for more? Yes my pre-event picks have been disappointing but with the likes of Luke Donald, Rory McIlroy and many more faltering, I'm certainly not alone there and every cloud has a silver lining. As stated in my preview, I've been cautious from the start so I still have plenty of ammunition to go to war with. All I need is a clear target!
First day highlights included a sublime 66 from leader, Michael Thompson, a masterly display from Tiger Woods, which saw the former world number one seemingly in total control of his game - something many thought we'd never see again. There was an albatross two on the par five 17th by Nick Watney. An amazing level par 70 by 17-year-old amateur Beau Hossler, a great fight-back by 14-year-old Andy Zhang, who somehow broke 80 after being eight over-par though just five holes, and we also witnessed a number of very disappointing starts by some big names, including world number one Luke Donald, who himself only just broke 80. But the star of the show for me was the course...
After last year's debacle, when Rory McIlroy won at rain-softened Congressional with a whopping 16-under total, it's nice to see normal US Open service resumed. Although the current lead is -4, I'll be very surprised if the winning score is under par, the course is every bit as tough as it was thought to be and the first six holes are absolutely brutal.
The 1st ranked the toughest yesterday and the next five ranked 6th, 5th, 9th, 4th, and 3rd hardest. Now that's what you call a tough start! The second hardest hole was the monster par five 16th which gave up just six birdies all day long.
As much as I've enjoyed the event so far, I'm a bit frustrated by the state of play. I was hoping to add to my portfolio late last night or this morning with a few more backs but after much deliberation, I've decided to keep my powder dry for now.
It looked as though very few players would end the day under par but some late rallies by some of the late starters, just as I was flagging badly, have resulted in a more congested leaderboard than I'd anticipated. In the last half an hour of Sky's live play, Justin Rose and Graeme McDowell both birdied their last two holes, Ian Poulter made eagle at his penultimate hole (the drivable 7th) and Lee Westwood rallied with a birdie at the 17th.
I very nearly backed G-Mac at 19.518/1 in the early hours but regrettably I didn't, deciding unwisely to sleep on it and I've now decided to let battle commence before I make my next move.
At 9.88/1, Justin Rose looks a bit short to me. He needed 30 putts yesterday and he only played one practice round - a decision I think he'll go on to regret.
Having fiercely contested the US Masters and won the Players Championship, Matt Kuchar is developing into a big event specialist this year and at 14.513/1, currently on level par, he's a perfectly fair price. G-Mac found 10 of 14 fairways yesterday (as did Woods) and only Francesco Molinari (12 of 14) found more. He's shortened up more than I' hoped overnight but given he's already won a US Open in California; he has to be respected after such a great start. He too is on level par.
I'm not overly keen on the next two in the market. Jim Furyk (level par) always looks as though he'll find a way to get beat nowadays though he's sure to hang around. Lee Westwood (+3) sounded irritated by the conditions when interviewed after round one and he can't afford another poor start today. At just 19.518/1, backers have to hope that mistakes are few or non-existent.
Only three others trade at less than 30.029/1. Leader Thompson, who I expect to struggle today, Watney, who's -1 score was helped greatly by his two on 17 and Ian Poulter, who on level par is probably priced about right at 28.027/1.
Jason Dufner on +2 and trading at 36.035/1 is very much of interest. Recovering from a bad start on the easier back nine, he was one of just six men to birdie the 1st. I was tempted to back him now but instead I'm going to wait and see how he starts off this morning. Yes he played the horror holes one to six well yesterday but that might not be the case today and watching and waiting makes sense.
Of the remainder, David Toms, under par and trading at 40.039/1 looks fairly priced and I wouldn't put anyone off Francesco Molinari and Robert Karlsson but look how many I've mentioned! I'm convinced it will have thinned out much more by the time England kick-off tonight and I'm going to do what I often do when things look so tough, and that's nothing. There's an awfully long way to go and taking no further action could well be the best cause of action right now.
One last thing from day one, the morning starters averaged 74.59, compared to the 75.26 averaged by the afternoon groups. The weather forecast suggests much the same conditions so hopefully the draw won't be that significant.
22:45 - June 14, 2012
I've thrown a few pounds at Angel Cabrera at 200.0199/1 after he's played just two holes! Fools rush in maybe but could El Pato win his third US PGA Tour event and his third major? His only previous wins in the states were this event in 2007 and the 2009 US Masters.
21:10 - June 14, 2012
I've boarded the Tiger Woods train at 4.33/1. He can only shorten-up from here until his tee-time tomorrow.
Safely in the house on -1, he's tied for second, three shots behind early leader Michael Thompson, who was matched at 1000.0n/a before the off. Thompson's lead is not as big a shock as you might imagine, in fact he's been tipped up in a few places. Thomson had finished second in the US Amateur here in 2007, so he had course experience - something that many in the field didn't have.
It's not going to get any easier for the afternoon starters and I can't imagine anyone getting to the leader, and I'd be quite surprised if many pass Tiger and co on -1.
18:15 - June 14, 2012
I was going to wait and kick this off tomorrow but given I've already placed a couple in-running wagers at the US Open I thought I'd get it started.
It was widely predicted that the start to Olympic Club would find a few out and that seems to be the case, after two and a quarter hours, 16 of the first 17 on the leaderboard had started from hole number nine. I've now backed the one player on the leaderboard, Jason Bohn at 150.0149/1, who has started at the 1st, and I've also backed Carl Pettersson after he started steadily. He was on the shortlist anyway and as I wrote in my Top Swede piece, his name has kept cropping up for a while now.
A bit early to get involved maybe but I can see this field thinning out very fast and I may well make a few more small and speculative plays yet today.
Of my pre-event picks, Phil Mickelson looks completely out of sorts. On +4, he's already seven behind early leader Branden Grace with all the hard holes to come and I've already resigned myself to the fact that he's a loser in the book. Y.E Yang hasn't fared much better and the best of mine on the course right now is 1000.0n/a shot Stephen Ames on +2. Not a good start.
Tiger Woods is struggling a bit with his distance control with his irons but other than that he looks in good form again and he's just birdied the par 5 17th to get back to level for the day.
Pre-event Selections:
Phil Mickelson @ 26.025/1
Ernie Els @ 95.094/1
Y.E Yang @ 260.0259/1
Ben Crane @ 260.0259/1
Stephen Ames @ 1000.0n/a
In-Play wagers
Carl Pettersson @ 140.0139/1
Jason Bohn @ 150.0149/1
Tiger Woods @ 4.33/1
Angel Cabrera @ 200.0199/1
Graeme McDowell @ 17.516/1
Martin Kaymer @ 90.089/1
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