Tourney Strategy: The Stop-and-Go

Poker Strategy / Short-Stacked Shamus / 12 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

The "stop-and-go" is a play that can potentially increase your fold equity despite having a short stack.

The stop-and-go is a “special case” play that can only be attempted when the circumstances are correct. You must have a short stack but not too short to make dividing your all-in push into two stages irrelevant. Also, you will be out of position and heads-up after the flop.

Being short-stacked in a no-limit hold'em tournament is never ideal, whether during the early, middle, or late stages. Whereas a big stack affords you a wide range of options both before and after the flop, when you find yourself having dwindled to less than 10 big blinds' worth of chips, you often are reduced to two choices, both preflop -- all in or fold.

For players in such a spot the so-called "stop-and-go" play provides one other possible course of action, although it is a maneuver that is sometimes misunderstood and thus misused. The play -- an all-in commitment of one's short stack performed in two stages rather than a single shove -- requires a special set of circumstances to be effective.

The stop-and-go is often associated with 2004 World Series of Poker Main Event champion Greg Raymer. Posting under the name "Fossilman," Raymer was a frequent contributor to the Two Plus Two strategy forums during the early 2000s, right up until his big Main Event victory and for a while afterwards, too. Among the ideas Raymer discussed there was the stop-and-go play in no-limit hold'em multi-table tournaments.

Increasing fold equity

The idea behind the stop-and-go is to increase your "fold equity" even by just a small amount, despite your short stack. Fold equity refers to the chance an opponent will fold to your bet and the subsequent gain in chips that will result. Sometimes fold equity is expressed as a formula, with the likelihood of an opponent folding (between 0% and 100%) multiplied by the pot you would win if he did.

As your stack gets shorter, it becomes more difficult to pressure opponents into folding hands when you raise. They know that by calling they can only ultimately lose so much, and thus will become more willing to call you. Meanwhile, when the biggest stack at the table makes a preflop raise, players know that playing a hand against him could end with their elimination from the tournament, and so they're more wary. With a bigger stack, he has more fold equity than you do.

When played correctly, the stop-and-go play increases your chances of getting an opponent to fold and concede a pot to you despite your short stack.

Calling, then shoving

For example, say you're in the big blind in a full ring (nine-handed) NLHE tourney. The blinds are 100/200 with a 25 ante. After pushing out your ante and big blind, you're down to just 1,400 chips or 7 big blinds.

The table folds around to the player on the button who has an above-average stack of 6,200 to start the hand, and he raises 3x to 600. The small blind folds, and you look down to see Ad-Jc.

Here you've been dealt a hand that falls within the range of shoving hands you've been hoping for. Indeed, if given the chance, you probably would've open-pushed with your ace-jack. But that wasn't the case here.

You could reraise all in here -- a perfectly acceptable play. However, your fold equity isn't going to be all that great. When your opponent made that raise to 600, he made the total pot 1,125 (his raise plus the blinds and antes). Say you shove the 1,400 you have behind, which added to your 200 big blind means you're reraising to 1,600 total. The pot is now 2,525 and he only has to call 1,000 more to stick around.

Those are some inviting pot odds for your opponent. He could -- in fact, should -- call with a wide range of hands. With hands like Kd-10c or 4d-4h or even worse, he's probably going to call.

Here's where the stop-and-go might increase your fold equity and thus your chances of winning the hand and surviving. Instead of reraising, you simply call the raise, then shove the flop no matter what three cards come.

When you called his raise you made the total pot 1,525, leaving yourself 1,000 behind. The flop comes and you shove, giving your opponent exactly the same pot odds to call as before. So what's the difference?

As we know, with most hands the chances of missing the flop are greater than hitting it. Let's say he's holding pocket fours, the flop came Kh-9c-8d, and you made your all-in bet with Ad-Jc. The pot odds are the same for him, but now there are three overcards to his small pocket pair on the board and just two more to come.

The chance of him folding a hand here is greater than his folding before the flop, thus your fold equity has gone up. And in fact, if he does fold his pocket fours, you've won the pot -- and a considerable increase to your chip stack -- with the worst hand!

A "special case" play

Of course, with the stop-and-go there's always a chance the flop helps your opponent and thus encourages him to call. Say he sitting there with Kd-10c when that king-high flop comes -- he's obviously calling, and when he does you're in tough shape. But if you had shoved preflop he probably would have called there, too, so the result isn't really different although it might seem so given how your last chips went in as a dog rather than as a favorite.

Note that the stop-and-go is a "special case" play that can only be attempted when the circumstances are correct. You must have a short stack but not too short to make dividing your all-in push into two stages irrelevant. That is, you need 7-10 big blinds or so -- with less, just go ahead and shove preflop. Also, you will be out of position and heads-up after the flop.

And even if all of these circumstances are in place, take a moment to think about what you're doing before trying the play. It could very well be the case that in certain situations against certain opponents, going ahead and pushing preflop is the better move.

In other words, stop and think before you stop-and-go.

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Push 'em Provides Chance to Sharpen Short-Stacked Strategy

Poker Strategy / Short-Stacked Shamus / 28 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

In a Push 'em game, ace-eight will likely be among the range of hands with which you'll be making those all-in shoves.

While clearly more of a gambling game than regular no-limit hold’em, Push ‘em will provide opportunities to employ some strategy and thus give an edge to players who can smartly play their short stacks.

There's a new game debuting on Betfair Poker this week called Push 'em, a variant designed to provide action in a hurry. A no-limit hold'em cash game, Push 'em requires players to buy in for exactly five big blinds -- no more, no less -- making the chances of facing an all-in confrontation soon after sitting down quite high. While certainly not as complicated strategy-wise as typical no-limit hold'em, there are a few ideas to keep in mind that can improve one's chances of leaving a Push 'em session a winner.

Push 'em will be offered at a variety of limits at Betfair, from $0.05/$0.10 up to $5/$10, with all Push 'em games being six-handed. For example, when sitting down at a $0.25/$0.50 Push 'em table, you'll be buying in for exactly $2.50, with no option to buy in for more or less. In other words, you can go ahead and give all players my nickname -- "Short-Stacked" -- when they start their Push 'em sessions.

One necessary modification from typical NLHE strategy will be to open up one's starting hand requirements considerably. Since folding even one orbit's worth of hands will cost almost a third of your stack (1.5 BBs), it's likely you'll need to choose a hand quickly with which to push your chips in the middle.

That's not to say you can't follow a few broad principles of hand selection and even employ some other strategic thinking in Push 'em.

Pocket pairs

Pocket pairs only come around once every 17 hands or so, which usually means if you are dealt one, you will have the best hand preflop. In Push 'em you should be ready to commit your stack of 5 BBs whenever dealt a pocket pair, either by open-raising all in or calling others' shoves.

Even if you are dealt the lowly 2-2 and someone has shoved ahead of you, it's going to be worth calling with your 5 BBs. Against a random hand, pocket deuces generally rates a tad over 50% to win, and even against the wide range of raising hands in Push 'em -- say any pocket pair, A-x, K-x, and Q-x -- PokerStove tells us 2-2 is still going to be close to even money to win by the river.

Any ace, king, queen

You're going to be glad to pick up big cards in Push 'em, including any ace, king, or queen.

Most players will probably be comfortable shoving with any ace or king, although some might hesitate before committing with Q-x. However, if no one has opened the pot and you are dealt Q-x, it is probably worth a push given the probability you'll have the preflop edge. Obviously a call in this spot will likely mean you'll be behind with five cards to come, but more often than not callers will hold A-x, K-x, or pairs from J-J to 2-2 and your queen will still be live (if not your kicker, too).

I would consider pushing with a queen, though I would hesitate before calling with all but the better Q-x hands (e.g., Qs-Js). With an ace or king, though, I'm going to call with my stack of five BBs.

Suitedness

Not long ago we were discussing the significance of suitedness in no-limit hold'em. One of the ways suited cards have value is as drawing hands, with a flopped flush draw potentially giving a player extra leverage after flop. However, since essentially all of the decision-making in Push 'em is going to occur preflop, there will be fewer opportunities to take advantage of having flopped a draw.

Thus while suitedness does add a few percentage points to your hand's value, pushing with 7s-5s shouldn't seem that much more of an option to you than going all in with 7d-5c. Like small connectors, suitedness really is more of a concern in games where there are post-flop decisions to be made -- likely not the case in Push 'em.

Position

The significance of position will be relatively minimized in Push 'em thanks to the fact that players are essentially reduced to the single all-in raise move before the flop. Without post-flop play, position will only matter once -- not four times like in hold'em hands that aren't decided before the river.

I wouldn't place that great an importance on the difference between an all-in push from the player sitting under the gun and one from the guy on the button, although pay attention to your opponents as some will allow their position to dictate just how wide they'll go with their opening ranges.

Hands that get folded around to the cutoff or button will present opportunities for blind steals for players in those seats. The player in the small blind may want to open his raising range a little further, too, should the entire table fold before it is his turn to act. And with the stacks as short as they are, blind steals will be more of an issue in Push 'em than in deep-stacked NLHE games.

Player Profiling

While there will be fewer decisions per hand in Push 'em -- with almost all being of the all-in-or-fold variety -- you will still come to notice some players approaching the game differently than others, and thus as in all poker games you should be ready to adapt your game to what others are doing. There will undoubtedly be no shortage of maniacs, ready to gamble with any two cards. There will actually be nits (relatively speaking) at the Push 'em tables, too, who fold more than they should. Take note, and adjust your own decision-making accordingly.

You may even see some trying to limp or make minimum-raises occasionally before the flop. (The limp-reraise with a big hand will prove a popular play for certain players.) And of course for those who are able to accumulate chips and build stacks greater than the starting 5 BB, you may see some even-looser-than-usual calls or raises, or other out-of-the-ordinary plays.

While clearly more of a gambling game than regular no-limit hold'em, Push 'em will provide opportunities to employ some strategy and thus give an edge to players who can smartly play their short stacks and push around not just some chips but opponents, too.

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Michael Vaughan: A tried and trusted strategy for the 3rd ODI

Pakistan v England / Michael Vaughan / 17 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Afridi departs in the 2nd ODi in a game-changing moment

"If we were to take a pre-match punt on either of the teams we’d be wanting to side with England because they have the more in-form seamers at the moment and the momentum after winning the first two matches. Especially given that they’re the marginal outsiders at 2.08. But the smarter bet is to once again back the side batting first."

Michael Vaughan discusses the enigma that is Shahid Afridi and the importance of winning the toss once again, ahead of the 3rd ODI.

We were on the money in the second ODI with the prediction that whoever batted first would win the match. In the end it was actually a lot closer than many would have anticipated and those who were following the Betfair market in-play will have noticed that, just before Shahid Afridi was bowled by James Anderson, Pakistan were pretty strong favourites.

In fairness to Afridi, his 18 at a run-a-ball went a long way to getting Pakistan back in the game when they were behind the required run rate after a flurry of wickets. But having hit a couple of boundaries and gotten them back in contention there was no real need to start swinging from the hip and trying to hit every ball out of the ground. If Afridi and Misbah had just rotated the strike well and punished the odd bad ball - with a few calculated risks along the way - they would have put themselves into a position where they could win the match and the pressure would have been on England. But then again, that's not really Afridi's style.

I didn't actually play much against 'Boom Boom' when I was on England duty but with the way he plays I do remember that we always felt we had a chance of getting him out next ball. When someone like Mahela Jayawardene or Rahul Dravid is well set you need to come up with concrete plans of how to get them to make a mistake or at least find a way of getting the runs to dry up. But Afridi is one of those players who can look dangerous from the very first ball yet never looks completely set. I think one of the big problems with him when he goes out to bat is that he has a tendency to play to the crowd a bit too much. The fans erupt when he comes to the crease and I think that makes him feel like he's got a responsibility to not only score runs quickly but also to entertain. Sometimes it comes off but more often than not it doesn't and we're left wondering what might have been. Still, cricket needs entertainers like him that get spectators on the edge of their seats. That's why just about every English county would love to sign him up for the T20 competition. He was a passionate captain during his time in charge and he brings an energy and a love of the game that galvanises any team. But if we're being honest, he's more likely to have an effect on the remainder of the series with ball rather than bat.

Dubai may be a pitch that offers more to the seamers than it does the spinners. If we were to take a pre-match punt on either of the teams we'd be wanting to side with England because they have the more in-form seamers at the moment and the momentum after winning the first two matches. Especially given that they're the marginal outsiders at [2.08]. But the smarter bet is to once again back the side batting first. England played well in the first two matches but the difference was Alastair Cook's two centuries. Had Pakistan batted first on both occasions it's not too far-fetched to imagine it could be 2-0 Pakistan right now.

I've spoken before about how having a new ball from each end makes it easier to score runs at the top of the order because it stays harder for longer and hitting boundaries is easier. That's all well and good on great wickets but on tough tracks it means the ball will actually do more. Can you imagine two new balls at Trent Bridge in a morning start with a bit of moisture in the air? Wickets could fall pretty quickly and maybe this change in the rules means that outside say, India, we'll return to the days when 250 will be considered a par score rather than 300.

Conditions could be tricky in Dubai and it's worth backing that we won't have a century in the match. So far only Cook has got one (or two to be precise) and only he has looked like getting one. So unless he goes out and somehow gets another I think "no century" looks a good bet at around [1.65].

As my final bet I'm going to back Jonathan Trott to outscore Younis Khan. I'm a big fan of the veteran Pakistan batter but he's looked rather out-of-sorts in the first two games whereas Trott looked pretty composed before edging one behind in the second ODI.

3pts Back the team batting first
3 pts Back 'no century' at [1.65]
1 pt Back Jonathan Trott to outscore Younis Khan @ [1.9]

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