Pakistan v England 
/ Michael Vaughan / 17 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Afridi departs in the 2nd ODi in a game-changing moment
"If we were to take a pre-match punt on either of the teams we’d be wanting to side with England because they have the more in-form seamers at the moment and the momentum after winning the first two matches. Especially given that they’re the marginal outsiders at 2.08. But the smarter bet is to once again back the side batting first."
Michael Vaughan discusses the enigma that is Shahid Afridi and the importance of winning the toss once again, ahead of the 3rd ODI.
We were on the money in the second ODI with the prediction that whoever batted first would win the match. In the end it was actually a lot closer than many would have anticipated and those who were following the Betfair market in-play will have noticed that, just before Shahid Afridi was bowled by James Anderson, Pakistan were pretty strong favourites.
In fairness to Afridi, his 18 at a run-a-ball went a long way to getting Pakistan back in the game when they were behind the required run rate after a flurry of wickets. But having hit a couple of boundaries and gotten them back in contention there was no real need to start swinging from the hip and trying to hit every ball out of the ground. If Afridi and Misbah had just rotated the strike well and punished the odd bad ball - with a few calculated risks along the way - they would have put themselves into a position where they could win the match and the pressure would have been on England. But then again, that's not really Afridi's style.
I didn't actually play much against 'Boom Boom' when I was on England duty but with the way he plays I do remember that we always felt we had a chance of getting him out next ball. When someone like Mahela Jayawardene or Rahul Dravid is well set you need to come up with concrete plans of how to get them to make a mistake or at least find a way of getting the runs to dry up. But Afridi is one of those players who can look dangerous from the very first ball yet never looks completely set. I think one of the big problems with him when he goes out to bat is that he has a tendency to play to the crowd a bit too much. The fans erupt when he comes to the crease and I think that makes him feel like he's got a responsibility to not only score runs quickly but also to entertain. Sometimes it comes off but more often than not it doesn't and we're left wondering what might have been. Still, cricket needs entertainers like him that get spectators on the edge of their seats. That's why just about every English county would love to sign him up for the T20 competition. He was a passionate captain during his time in charge and he brings an energy and a love of the game that galvanises any team. But if we're being honest, he's more likely to have an effect on the remainder of the series with ball rather than bat.
Dubai may be a pitch that offers more to the seamers than it does the spinners. If we were to take a pre-match punt on either of the teams we'd be wanting to side with England because they have the more in-form seamers at the moment and the momentum after winning the first two matches. Especially given that they're the marginal outsiders at [2.08]. But the smarter bet is to once again back the side batting first. England played well in the first two matches but the difference was Alastair Cook's two centuries. Had Pakistan batted first on both occasions it's not too far-fetched to imagine it could be 2-0 Pakistan right now.
I've spoken before about how having a new ball from each end makes it easier to score runs at the top of the order because it stays harder for longer and hitting boundaries is easier. That's all well and good on great wickets but on tough tracks it means the ball will actually do more. Can you imagine two new balls at Trent Bridge in a morning start with a bit of moisture in the air? Wickets could fall pretty quickly and maybe this change in the rules means that outside say, India, we'll return to the days when 250 will be considered a par score rather than 300.
Conditions could be tricky in Dubai and it's worth backing that we won't have a century in the match. So far only Cook has got one (or two to be precise) and only he has looked like getting one. So unless he goes out and somehow gets another I think "no century" looks a good bet at around [1.65].
As my final bet I'm going to back Jonathan Trott to outscore Younis Khan. I'm a big fan of the veteran Pakistan batter but he's looked rather out-of-sorts in the first two games whereas Trott looked pretty composed before edging one behind in the second ODI.
3pts Back the team batting first
3 pts Back 'no century' at [1.65]
1 pt Back Jonathan Trott to outscore Younis Khan @ [1.9]
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