World Championship Snooker: In-Play semi-final tips

Snooker / Mike Norman / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ding Junhui holds a narrow 9-7 lead over young Judd Trump

"Both players are more than capable of this and their latter sessions should see both relaxing a bit more and playing their natural high-scoring game."

Alex Lee has got himself into a great position in both semi-finals, but not content with settling for what he's got our expert has come up with some more wagers for you to consider.

With Ding Junhui easing into a 9-7 lead against young pretender Judd Trump, the Chinaman is justifying his pre-match tip and hopefully you'll have all traded out by now. Furthermore, Mark Williams got off to a roaring start against John Higgins, winning the first session 5-3, so the tip to lay Higgins with a view to trading out was a simple no-lose bet too.

The hard part now, of course, is picking a tournament winner, which I'll reserve judgement on for the time being (cough... Williams). While both semi-finals are still in progress, the clever money has to be on the two current leaders Williams and Ding to reach the final, although I expect Higgins to battle back more strongly than Trump. For this reason a little Dutching of 17-16 ([11.0]), 17-15 ([10.0]) and 17-14 ([10.0])* to Williams could be the way forward as it covers a trio of outcomes and offers a very palatable percentage payout.

As far as the Trump/Ding match is concerned, a wise move could be to back the Highest Break (Score) over 128.5 which is currently priced @ [2.44]. Both players are more than capable of this and their latter sessions should see both relaxing a bit more and playing their natural high-scoring game.

At the time of writing, Williams had just constructed a graceful century break in frame 13 and the expression Higgins had on his face was that of a beaten man. While the Scotsman has enormous reserves of mental strength, this match looks out of his reach already due to Williams' free-flowing snooker.

Recommended Bets

Back Highest Break (Score) over 128.5 @ [2.44] in the Trump/Ding game
Dutch Williams 17-16 @ [11.0], 17-15 @ [10.0] and 17-14 @ [10.0] v Higgins

*Prices correct at conclusion of second session with Williams leading 9-7

So far the focus has been on picking the best bets from the individual matches, but there's a tournament to be won when all is said and done. With the quarter-finals well under way, there are two outstanding candidates, says...

Alex Lee believes Allen can give Williams the game of his life in the clash of the Marks, while Judd Trump will beat Graeme Dott....

Bullish Bingham can give Ding a run for his money, says Paul Krishnamurty...

Betfair website

Snooker World Championship Betting: Semi-finals special

World Snooker Championship Betting / Alex Lee / 28 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is John Higgins set for the final?

"Williams v Higgins provides a trader’s paradise as neither player will remain in the ascendancy for long due to the quality of their opponent."

Alex Lee looks for the betting angles on two compelling World Championship semi-finals at the Crucible...

Once again, the World Snooker Championship has thrown up a closely-matched semi-final contest in the shape of Mark Williams v John Higgins. While Welshman Williams has a little more panache - and speed - about him at the table, Higgins is a fantastic tactician and break-builder. Both players have the requisite qualities to propel them into the final and it is for this reason that I believe it's worth laying Higgins with a view to trading out. Higgins is currently favourite at [1.82] while Williams is [2.2].

More realistically, both should be much closer to evens and the above prices are based on Higgins' recent World Championship record - and his Scottish fan base - than current form. Neither player will be concerned if they go behind early on as both have sufficient mental strength, experience and character to ease their way back into the game. In other words, this match provides a trader's paradise as neither player will remain in the ascendancy for long due to the quality of their opponent.

In the other semi, between Ding Junhui and Judd Trump, keep faith in the more experienced player from China and back him accordingly. Trump's tremendous potting skills temporarily deserted him in the first session and this fact will be at the forefront of both players' minds as the match progresses.

Recommended Bets
Lay Higgins with a view to trading out
Back Ding Junhui

Judd Trump and Mark Williams are through to the semis and it is the former in particular who has his work cut out in the next round. Meanwhile, with some serious heavy scoring coming up, it could pay to side...

So far the focus has been on picking the best bets from the individual matches, but there's a tournament to be won when all is said and done. With the quarter-finals well under way, there are two outstanding candidates, says...

Alex Lee believes Allen can give Williams the game of his life in the clash of the Marks, while Judd Trump will beat Graeme Dott....

Betfair website

World Snooker Daily Tips: Crucible specialists set for marathon

World Snooker Championship Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Graeme Dott has a slightly better Crucible record than his opponent

"Odds of [1.9] about over 22.5 frames looks an outstanding bet."

As two World Championship heavyweights face off in the second round, Paul Krishnamurty explains why there's more to betting on snooker than picking winners...

As the betting indicates, there's nothing to choose between Ali Carter and Graeme Dott in Friday morning's second round encounter, which means the best strategy may be to focus on markets that don't involve picking the match winner.

Both men have an abundance of Crucible credentials, with Dott boasting a very slight edge. The Scot won the title in 2006, and has twice lost the final, including last year to Neil Robertson. Carter has only reached one final here, losing to Ronnie O'Sullivan in 2007, but has played some of his very best snooker in the last four renewals, also falling victim to Robbo in last year's semi, and losing a classic 2006 quarter-final to Mark Selby. Both men registered solid, if unspectacular, first round victories that were typical of their prowess against inferior opposition.

It all points to a photo-finish, as we so often see in these best of 25 matches at the Crucible. In the past two World Championships, 15 out of 24 matches over this distance went to 13-10 or closer - a telling statistic considering that many of these matches involved very one-sided betting, as opposed to this virtual even money split. Indeed, given those stats and the difficulty in choosing a favourite, [1.9] about over 22.5 frames looks an outstanding bet.

Recommended Bet
Ali Carter v Graeme Dott Total Frames - Over 22.5 @ [1.8]

Paul Krishnamurty doesn't anticipate any problems for the two time World Champion against Jamie Cope......

Martin Gould is an improved player and he could be set to shock Marco Fu at the Crucible, says Paul Krishnamurty....

Here it is, the match Paul Krishnamurty has been waiting for, Ricky Walden versus Rory McLeod! Why? Well it's a must-win tie for one and that makes for a top betting opportunity...

Betfair website

Snooker China Open Betting: Time to make his Mark

Snooker / David Hendon / 26 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mark Allen is a rare talent but can be hot-headed

"The China Open provides an opportunity for those not among the leading favourites for the world title to shine. Someone like Mark Allen, whose fierce natural talent is yet to deliver him a ranking title."

David Hendon identifies the right profile for the winner of this event and comes up with the two best bets.

It's been said that, in spring, a young man's fancy turns to thoughts of love. Well, not if they are a snooker player it doesn't. For snooker's elite this time of the year means only one thing: a claustrophobic theatre in Yorkshire and the chance for glory. In just three weeks time the Crucible Theatre in Sheffield will once again play host to the World Championship and it is the close proximity of the game's biggest event to the China Open that makes betting on Beijing troublesome. Very rarely does the player who wins the last event before the Big One go on to triumph at the Crucible. In fact, the last time it happened was 13 years ago when John Higgins followed up his British Open success by capturing his first world title.

Don't think snooker's great and good won't be trying in Beijing, but there's no doubt that, perhaps subconsciously, they are thinking about how to peak in time for Sheffield. Therefore, the China Open provides an opportunity for those not among the leading favourites for the world title to shine. Someone like Mark Allen, whose fierce natural talent is yet to deliver him a ranking title.

Allen has appeared in five ranking semi-finals, plus the semis of this season's Wembley Masters. All this knocking on the door will surely yield some silverware soon. Stephen Hendry said recently that when the Northern Irishman first appeared on the scene, surrounded by the usual hype that accompanies the arrival of a new young talent, he didn't believe he was that special but that he has since changed his mind after observing him at close quarters. Hendry admires Allen's fearless attacking game, which is reminiscent of snooker's greatest champion in his heyday. Where Allen has fallen down while Hendry flourished is in winning close matches under pressure.

But the 25 year-old is not one to be overwhelmed by reputation. On his TV debut at the age of 19 he beat Steve Davis and, in his next match, John Higgins. He has beaten Ronnie O'Sullivan at the Crucible and Wembley. His time will surely come and, with the attention of the very best diverted by what is to come at Sheffield, there is no reason why it shouldn't come this week. The only real issue with Allen (and perhaps a reason he is yet to appear in a major final) is his hot-headedness if things aren't going his way. He needs to keep cool because there is little doubt he has the game to start landing the game's biggest prizes.

The draw has produced a fiendishly tough top quarter which features defending champion Mark Williams, who plays an in-form Stephen Lee, plus O'Sullivan, who tackles resurgent Welshman Ryan Day. Also in there is Hendry, who plays Matthew Stevens, back to form having just won the qualifying competition for the Premier League. Completing the line-up is Chinese hero Ding Junhui, all competing for a solitary semi-final spot.

Avoiding all this carnage in the bottom half of the draw is John Higgins, whose sense of purpose after returning from his suspension last November has been clear from the four titles he has won since. Better value, though, is provided by another Glaswegian in Graeme Dott, China Open winner in 2007, who has steadily produced some good snooker in the last year ever since he reached his third Crucible final.

The eight lowest ranked qualifiers have to play invited Chinese wildcards, who tend to vary in quality. The best of them is Tian Pengfei, who beat an admittedly poorly motivated O'Sullivan in Beijing last year. On Monday, Tian faces the enduringly popular Jimmy White, who will have his work cut out to progress to the first round proper. Tian is on home soil and, as he doesn't have ranking points or prize money to play for, is not under anywhere as much pressure as the Whirlwind. The other wildcard to watch is Jin Long, who has more experience than his fellow compatriots having played on the pro circuit and could threaten to cause an upset against Nigel Bond.

In the last 32, Barry Hawkins is worth supporting against Stephen Maguire, whose practise time has been limited due to the recent birth of his third child. Martin Gould, a former casino croupier, is on a high after his surprise run to the final of the Players Tour Championship and is more than capable of beating world no.15 Ricky Walden. Stuart Bingham, a fluent break-builder but yet to appear in a major semi-final, has enough firepower to see off Shanghai Masters champion Ali Carter.

Recommended Bets:

Back Mark Allen to win the China Open at [19.0]
Back Graeme Dott to win the China Open at [22.0]

This is a tournament that should be won by one of the big guns. A good analysis of the draw and an understanding of the format gives us a good idea of which of them are well worth backing, says...

John Higgins has had his fair share of problems over the last year but since his return he's been as focussed, committed and ruthless as ever. David Hendon pays tribute to the great man and selects the other best bets...

He's been the scourge of the markets all week and Paul Krishnamurty believes that Marco Fu will round off today's Masters final by bringing more misery to favourite fanciers......

Betfair website

Welsh Open Snooker Betting: Ding and Robertson with every chance

Snooker / David Hendon / 13 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ding Junhui has finally settled in the UK and looks happy with his life and his game

"Ding seems happy in himself right now. When he first moved to the UK he found it hard to settle, understandably so – how many British players would find it easy to adopt to living in China? Now, the 23 year-old has found a good balance in his life. He still practises hard in Sheffield but has found himself a girlfriend and seems much more relaxed in general."

This is a tournament that should be won by one of the big guns. A good analysis of the draw and an understanding of the format gives us a good idea of which of them are well worth backing, says David Hendon.

Another week, another tournament, another new format. The first two rounds of the Welsh Open are best of seven frames with no intervals. In theory this makes the top seeds more susceptible to defeat but the same was said about the World Open earlier this season - played over a best-of-five sprint - and the semi-finals featured four world champions with the trophy going to reigning Crucible king Neil Robertson.

Whatever the format, top level snooker is ultimately a test of nerve just as much as it is a test of skill. Under pressure, the best players hold it together and therefore there is no reason to suggest the Newport title won't go to one of the usual suspects.

The draw looks unbalanced. John Higgins, Ronnie O'Sullivan and Shaun Murphy are all in the top quarter, along with Ricky Walden, Ryan Day and Matthew Stevens (and Jimmy White for that matter). This is a brutal section and my advice is just to leave them to it.

Ding Junhui is in what looks a far kinder quarter. The Chinese, who won the Wembley Masters last month, starts off against Marcus Campbell, a tough, determined Scot but a player who has rarely done the business on TV. Ding seems happy in himself right now. When he first moved to the UK he found it hard to settle, understandably so - how many British players would find it easy to adopt to living in China? Now, the 23 year-old has found a good balance in his life. He still practises hard in Sheffield but has found himself a girlfriend and seems much more relaxed in general. He played superbly at Wembley and didn't do much wrong at the German Masters in Berlin earlier this month before being undone by a tactically superior Mark Selby in the quarter-finals.

His main threats in his quarter are Ali Carter - who has done little of note since winning the Shanghai Masters last September - and Mark Allen, who followed up semi-final appearances in the UK Championship and Masters with a surprise first round defeat to Joe Swail in Germany. Ding thus avoids the really big hitters until at least the semi-finals.

Robertson's preparation was so bad for Berlin that the Aussie will surely want to make amends at an event he won in 2007. Robertson is more Frank Spencer than John Spencer when it comes to getting to tournaments. Already this season he arrived for a Premier League match only five minutes before it began. At the UK Championship he misread his match time and had to be phoned at his hotel by the tournament director ten minutes before he was due to break off. Before Germany he lost his passport, had to fly a day later than intended, arrived less than an hour before his match and lost.

But there is no problem with Roberton's timing on the table and as long as he actually turns up, he should do for veteran Nigel Bond in the first round, after which he would have as good a chance as anyone.

All the qualifiers are experienced campaigners with one glaring exception. Jack Lisowski, 19, is in his first season and has made an excellent start. He qualified for Berlin and won three matches last week to reach Newport where his reward is a TV debut against the game's top ranked player, Higgins. Logic dictates that young Lisowski should freeze and be well beaten by the three times world champion but a shock is not completely out of the question. OK, he has no experience of the TV set-up but, having interviewed him a number of times, I'm impressed by his intelligence and general attitude. He wants to learn from all the new experiences he is having on the tour and the pressure will be on Higgins. Sadly, the Scot had to pull out of the German Masters after his father, John senior, lost his battle with cancer. Obviously, this personal trauma will have meant that practising has been the last thing on Higgins's mind.

Seeds looking vulnerable include Carter, who could come unstuck against Barry Hawkins, a much better player than his record suggests, and Graeme Dott, who loathes short matches and who faces Jamie Burnett, runner-up in this season's Shanghai Masters.

Recommended Bets:

Back Ding Junhui to win the Welsh Open at [9.4]; Back Neil Robertson to win the Welsh Open at [11.0].

Back Barry Hawkins to beat Ali Carter at [2.5]; Back Jamie Burnett to beat Graeme Dott at [2.6].

Betfair website

German Masters Snooker Betting: Higgins means business

Snooker / David Hendon / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Higgins doing what he does best - clearing up the table

"Higgins has been guilty in the past of coasting a little and not treating every tournament with the respect it deserves but since returning from suspension has very clearly tried to win every frame of every match of every event, big or small. He reached the final of his first three tournaments back, winning two of them, most notably the UK Championship."

John Higgins has had his fair share of problems over the last year but since his return he's been as focussed, committed and ruthless as ever. David Hendon pays tribute to the great man and selects the other best bets from the German Masters.

John Higgins won the first ranking event staged in Germany 16 years ago. His hair is now a little greyer, he has a wife and three children and has had a potentially career-ending scandal to deal with but is still every bit as good a player as when he won the German Open in 1995.

Higgins has been guilty in the past of coasting a little and not treating every tournament with the respect it deserves but since returning from suspension has very clearly tried to win every frame of every match of every event, big or small. He reached the final of his first three tournaments back, winning two of them, most notably the UK Championship. Don't be fooled by his first round exit at the Masters - he hates Wembley Arena. That slip up aside, the Scot is fully focussed on landing every piece of silverware around and Berlin marks another opportunity to continue his rehabilitation.

The German Masters sees him at the bottom of the draw in a quarter that includes Shaun Murphy, Mark Allen, Marco Fu and Mark King - good players all but none as good as Higgins at his best. Heavily motivated, he remains a fearsome prospect when at the top of his game. The experienced snooker writer and commentator Clive Everton, who has witnessed more snooker than most, wrote recently that Higgins is: "the nearest thing to a perfect textbook player in technique and shot selection there has ever been."

What he means is that Higgins always knows the right shot and almost always plays it. When he first broke through it was clear he was mature beyond his years, combining Steve Davis's considerable tactical know-how with Stephen Hendry's heavy scoring. Higgins may lack Ronnie O'Sullivan's flair but has a better temperament and sits at the top of the ranking list while O'Sullivan languishes in ninth place.

His practise partner Graeme Dott is in the opposite half of the Berlin draw and has a reasonable chance of making progress through to the latter stages despite a possible meeting with Neil Robertson (who beat him in last season's World Championship final) in the second round. Dott invariably plays well against the very top players, as he proved in beating Higgins in the first round of the Masters last month. Words like 'tenacious' and 'dogged' are normally applied to him but Dott doesn't just win through being tough, he's a heavy scorer too and brilliant under pressure.

The truth is, there isn't much between the top players right now, hence the major titles tend to be shared around, but there is money to be made on individual match betting. Wednesday's wildcard round provides such a chance. In the China ranking tournaments, the invited players are often capable of beating the qualifiers but the European wildcards in Berlin are not yet of that standard, with one exception. Amateur Daniel Wells, a Welshman, spent two years on the pro circuit and in 2009 came within a frame of qualifying for the Crucible, losing 10-9 to Barry Hawkins. He stands the best chance of the eight wildcards of progressing when he tackles Chinese qualifier Liu Song.

In the first round, Judd Trump, who looks like he belongs on X-Factor as a member of One Direction, must fancy his chances of beating an out of sorts Hendry. Trump, 21, can clear the table quicker than it takes him to do his hair. He's ultra attacking, which is not always the best strategy, but Hendry hasn't played well for a whole match since he beat Dave Harold in the first round of the Welsh Open a year ago.

Andrew Higginson beat Peter Ebdon in the corresponding stage of the UK Championship a few weeks ago over 17 frames. Ebdon is not a huge fan of best of nines so logic suggests Higginson, a player with a good, positive attitude, can beat him again. From eight previous meetings Dominic Dale has never beaten O'Sullivan but the Rocket has given the impression in recent times that his interest in proper tournaments has seriously waned so a Dale victory can't be discounted. Stephen Lee has returned to something approaching his old fluency this season and is due another decent run in a big tournament. His first round opponent, Ali Carter, has struggled for form since winning the Shanghai Masters last September and could be vulnerable against the four time ranking event winner.

Recommended Bets:

Back John Higgins to win the German Masters at 7.6
Back Daniel wells to beat Liu Song at [2.06]
Back Judd Trump to beat Stephen Hendry at [1.7]

Betfair website