Athletics
/ Jack Houghton / 13 April 2011 / Leave a Comment
Will you join Jack in cheering on Any Other?
"When asked at the post-race press conference whether he could have broken Gebrselassie’s world-record in more favourable conditions, Makau simply replied, “Of course.”
The London Marathon takes place this Sunday and Jack Houghton is here to explain that, while top runners come into the race in top form, he's willing to have a bet on the field.
Men's Race - Sunday, 09:45 (BST) - BBC1 & BBC2
As headlines go, "Any Other Athlete Wins London Marathon" doesn't really inspire. But when either Patrick Makau or James Kwambai wins this Sunday's renewal, it will be anonymity-supporting Betfair punters who collect.
At the time of writing, Any Other Athlete is available at [4.0] to small money. It's unlikely that price will last long though: the true odds should be long odds-on. My book for the race has Patrick Makau as a [2.5] shot, with James Kwambai at around [6.0], the pair around [1.78] coupled. The risk is a late withdrawal - certainly not unheard of at a Marathon Major - but there looks to be enough juice in the likely prices available to take the chance.
Makau and Kwambai won't be familiar names to once-a-year marathon watchers; but in an event that has felt in a period of transition over the last two seasons - with established runners like Haile Gebrselassie making way for the rise of Wanjiru, Gebremariam and other African young guns - it is Makau and Kwambai who are likely to lead the onslaught towards breaking the 2:03 barrier.
The inexperienced Makau is already the third-fastest half-marathoner, and fourth-fastest marathoner, in history. It was his last win though - 30 seconds off his personal best in Berlin - that marks him out as the most likely winner in London. Berlin was cold, windy and beset by heavy rain that day. Makau suffered cramps in the latter stages and yet still managed a time that would have won any previous London Marathon. When asked at the post-race press conference whether he could have broken Gebrselassie's world-record in more favourable conditions, he simply replied, "Of course."
Kwambai, on the other hand, is looking to repair his reputation after a lacklustre 2010. However, his 2:04:27 at Rotterdam from 2009 marks him out as a potential winner; and his warm-up over the half-distance in The Haag in March shows he comes into the race in top form.
Women's Race - Sunday, 09:00 (BST) - BBC1 & BBC2
Having tipped her up on betting.betfair at [17.0] in 2008, and at [3.25] in 2009, Irina Mikitenko has proved incredibly profitable for me over the years. This kind of punting history can cause problems: there's always a tendency to follow a previously profitable athlete for too long, letting emotional attachment cloud your judgement as to their real chances of success in the future.
With this in mind, I will cautiously put forward Mikitenko to record her third London Marathon win in four years. Any price over [3.5] would be fair. She suffered injuries last year, but looked to be back to her best with a recent 10K win in Brunssum. On the balance of form, she is the best female marathoner of the last three years, and it's too soon to right her off.
After two Major wins in 2010, Shobukhova will start the rightful favourite. However, it's likely her price will be prohibitive; and despite dominating the women's scene last year, she's yet to record a stunningly fast time over either the full- or half-marathon distance. I suspect she was able to profit from some weaker than normal Major fields last year and will find London much tougher this time around - it's certainly the strongest women's race I can remember; and was recently made stronger with the announcement that seven Japanese runners will join the field late, their national trials cancelled due to March's Tohoku earthquake and tsunami.
With the depth of talent on display, it is worth being cautious, and I will be splitting my stake between Mikitenko and Any Other Athlete. This selection brings in a host of talented runners, foremost among them being the Kenyan Mary Keitany. Third in her marathon debut in New York last year, she is the fastest female half-marathoner of all time and has more than enough ability to dominate the longer event over the next few years.
Feel free to join me at Mile 15 on Sunday. I'll be the one shouting, "Come on, Any Other Athlete". It's bound to catch on.
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