The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Geoff Ogilvy – superb event form and one of the Punter’s picks
“Ogilvy’s record in this event is quite simply superb. He absolutely battered last year’s finalist, Paul Casey, in the 2009 final, two years after losing in the final to Henrik Stenson and three years after winning the event on debut.”
Steve looks forward to an entertaining day one at the Match Play but he's hardly brimming with confidence....
We're on the eve of one of the most exciting and enjoyable days in sport, let alone golf. Day one of the WGC Accenture Match Play is a joy to behold. Action packed and fast paced, the top-64 in the world (give or take a couple of exceptions) will be whittled down to 32 and there'll be shocks aplenty.
After that it all slows down a bit, with the round of 32 on Thursday, 16 on Friday and, in a change to the format of old, just the quarter-final matches will be played on Saturday. This year the final will be over just 18 holes and will follow the semi's on Sunday - a big improvement in my eyes.
My record in this event is appalling and I can't profess to being too confident of my selections this year either, but you never know, my luck in the event has to change at some point, doesn't it?
Last year I backed a raft of outsiders from all sections of the draw and that worked well until the final 16. Five of my dozen picks made it through the first two rounds but a disastrous third day saw only Thongchai Jaidee make it through to the quarter-finals, before he lost his nerve against eventual winner Ian Poulter.
In last year's event there were a number of shocks in the first two rounds but then the favourites prevailed and with that in mind, all my picks are players I can genuinely see going all the way - as opposed to being big -priced outsiders that I'd hope to get as far as the semi-finals to trade out. Which was last year's failed plan. So in price order, this year's sorry souls, almost evenly dispersed across the brackets, are as follows...
Phil Mickelson @ [26.0] - Ben Hogan Bracket
Lefty's record is far from inspiring in this event and it's hard to see why. In theory, his cavalier, birdie-making, attacking and occasionally wayward style should be ideal. A double-bogey or worse will only result in one lost hole and his ability to make plenty of birdies should stand him in good stead. He wasn't on my shortlist originally but with a (supposedly) easy first round opponent in the shape of Brendan Jones and a potentially inspiring second round match against event debutant, Rickie Fowler, I thought he was fairly priced.
Fowler performed brilliantly at the Ryder Cup last year and has a Walker Cup record that reads 7-1-0 but he does seem to have gone off the boil and I'd fancy Lefty to just get the better of him. That said young Rickie has to get past a real tough nut to crack in Peter Hanson first anyway.
Geoff Ogilvy @ [29.0] - Sam Snead Bracket
Geoff has a potentially tough scrap against Padraig Harrington, followed by a likely encounter with Tiger Woods and a third round tussle with any one of these four quality Americans -Dustin Johnson, Mark Wilson, Bubba Watson or Bill Haas. And if he does scrape through three rounds, he could well face Paul Casey, in the last eight! Sounds tough I know but Ogilvy's record in this event is quite simply superb.
He absolutely battered last year's finalist, Casey, in the 2009 final, two years after losing in the final to Henrik Stenson and three years after winning the event on debut. It's a tough draw but he's a very tough match play exponent and besides, what often looks a tough draw can open right up and be anything but.
Luke Donald @ [46.0] - Bobby Jones Bracket
Luke's Match Play record is nothing short of magnificent - Unbeaten in four Walker Cup singles matches, his record in the amateur event reads seven points from a possible eight. He's a duel winner of the World Cup and has an impressive Ryder Cup record too, of his eleven matches to date; he's won eight, halved one and lost just two, and one of those was in Wales on day one and very much down to an out-of-sorts Pod.
In six starts in this event he's never once failed to get through his opening match. With the exception of an awkward looking possible third round opponent in the shape of Charl Schwartzel, Luke has a decent early draw and I fancy him to go well.
Alvaro Quiros @ [50.0] - Ben Hogan Bracket
Much like Mickelson - who Alvaro could meet (if I'm very, very lucky) in the quarter-finals, Quiros has the sort of game that should suit this event. When he won in Dubai two weeks ago, it was despite a pair of triple-bogeys. Mistakes like that are very hard to overcome in stroke-play and nowhere near as damaging in this format.
He has a great record in the desert and can't be blamed for last year's heavy first round defeat - incredibly, Mike Weir birdied 10 of the 12 holes they played on his way to an 8 & 6 win.
His first round tie against Y E Yang will be no pushover and if he get through that he faces a really tough second round match against either Stewart Cink or defending champ Ian Poulter, both of whom have tremendous match play records and I certainly wouldn't put anyone off Poults at above [30.0]. Should he reach round three he's likely to meet either Graham McDowell or Ross Fisher, so it's a really tough draw but after he'd finished 2nd in Qatar and won in Dubai, I told myself I'd back him here - if I could get over [40.0] and although it's a task and a half he has in front of him, I felt I had to have him onside.
Ben Crane @ [100.0] and Zach Johnson @ [130.0] - Gary Player Bracket
I thought this looked the weakest of the four brackets, with Martin Kaymer and Rory McIlroy looking the ones to beat. Kaymer's record is far from great in the event though and he didn't particularly impress on his Ryder Cup debut. Whilst wobbly Rors is simply never a betting proposition for my money - though I do think this format suits him better than stroke play.
Both Crane and Johnson have decent match play records and could be over-priced - hopefully they'll meet in the last eight to fight for the right to play Ogilvy in the semi finals. Doesn't it sound easy!
There is one more event this week - the Mayakoba Classic in Mexico on the PGA Tour. I'm leaving that alone until after day one though. In the first four years of the event, nobody has come from any further back than 6th after the first round. Fred Funk made all the running in the inaugural event, Brian Gay was the tournament's 'closer' a year later, Mark Wilson was fourth after one round in 2009 and last year's front two - Cameron Beckman and Joe Durant had been 2nd and 1st after day one. It looks a real front-runner's event and I'll get stuck in on Friday morning.
Paul Krishnamurty will be back each day with his picks at the Match Play, so there'll be no Live Blog this week but I'll be back on Monday with a reflection on the week in my Tournament De-Brief.
Steve looks forward to an entertaining day one at the Match Play but he's hardly brimming with confidence.......
Not a great weekend for Steve as he rues not backing SSP in India and fails to lay Boom Boom at Riviera........
SSP collects, as Robert Coles crashing on the last.......
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