Showing posts with label European. Show all posts
Showing posts with label European. Show all posts
December 24, 2013
April 25, 2013
Against All Odds: A Rafa European special on the way in Switzerland
"It’s hard to see The Blues going wild tonight, especially as Rafa will likely adopt a quite cautious approach."
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Basel v Chelsea @ 1.9720/21
Chelsea travel to Switzerland to take on Basel in a Europa League semi-final live on ITV1 at 20:05 and Paul Robinson thinks we could be in for a low scoring game.
Basel are classed as the outsiders of the remaining four to lift the trophy but they have been excellent in the competition thus far and it would be dangerous to write them off. After coming through a group that contained both Sporting Lisbon and Genk, Murat Yakin's men have knocked out three sides who were all talked about as possible winners. They beat Dnipro 3-1 on aggregate, Zenit 2-1 and saw off Tottenham on penalties after a pair of 2-2 draws.
Marco Streller leads the way with four Europa League goals for the Swiss outfit, but it's Mohamed Salah who has impressed the most with his performances - notably the one he put in at White Hart Lane. That tie might have finished 4-4 on aggregate but I expect this one to be much more like their other matches in this tournament. Seven of their previous 10 this term had gone under 2.5 goals, including all their games in the knockout phase.
Chelsea edged out Rubin Kazan in the quarter-finals, beating them 5-4 on aggregate over two legs. Prior to that they'd knocked out Sparta Prague and Steaua Bucharest, but again, the margins of victory were hardly convincing. Rafa Benitez is the master of finding a way to win in Europe though and he will love nothing more than to add another major trophy to his CV before departing the club in May.
Fernando Torres will lead the line in the absence of Demba Ba and while his goal record isn't actually as bad as some people make out - he's outscored the likes of Rooney and Tevez this season - it's hard to see The Blues going wild tonight, especially as Rafa will likely adopt a quite cautious approach.
Over 2.5 goals is trading at a shade of odds-on at 1.9720/21 and that seems too short to me as I'm expecting a somewhat tentative affair, especially in the early stages. That's why, at the prices, I have to make it my lay of the day.
Recommended Bet
Lay Over 2.5 goals in Basel v Chelsea @ 1.9720/21
Wagered: 114 pts
Returned: 100.38 pts
P/L – 13.62 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)
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April 10, 2013
US Masters Betting: Rose and Westwood to fight out Top European honours
"I will be very surprised if the Englishman (Justin Rose) doesn’t finish in the top 10 this week and therefore he has to be a contender in this market."
Back Justin Rose @ 7.413/2
There's a plethora of side markets to get involved in at this week's US Masters, and here Mike Norman tells us who he believes are the best bets in the Top European market...
It's been 14 long years since a European golfer donned the famous Green Jacket, and on recent evidence it will take a big effort for one to win the first Major of the season come Sunday evening.
I've explained in more detail here as to why I believe the Europeans are worth opposing at this week's US Masters. It's nothing to do with them becoming bad players overnight, more the fact that the rest of the world are fighting back so to speak. And sure, some Europeans are bound to play well at Augusta during the course of the four competition days.
But the beauty of having a wager in the Top European market is that it doesn't matter where your selection finishes, as long as he's above everyone else from the same continent then you're a winner.
A total of 28 Europeans will tee off on Thursday, and although at least 20 of them have the ability to contend if at their very best, realistically we should be concentrating on the top echelons of the market for the most likely winner.
Not surprisingly Rory McIlroy heads the market at 5.49/2 to back, but despite a decent finish (and it was no more than decent given the strength of the field) at the Texas Open last week it seems the young Ulsterman has a lot to prove.
Since becoming the world number one at the end of last year McIlroy has had a lot to deal with. He has changed his equipment, has signed a mega-bucks sponsorship deal with Nike (and with that surely comes added pressure to succeed), and his private life is under more scrutiny than ever before. It seems in the early part of the season all this has had an affect on his game, and even last week his short game looked way off the standard required to contend at Augusta. He's not for me.
In total contrast to Rory, Justin Rose doesn't have a single question mark hanging above his head going into this week. He rarely puts in a bad performance these days, and his excellent second place finish at Bay Hill last time was his fifth runner-up spot in a big event since winning the WGC Cadillac Championship 13 months ago.
Rose's Masters record isn't too shabby either, recording four top-20 finishes in the last five years including a fifth place finish in 2008 and a top-10 finish last year.
In fact Rose ticks all the right boxes if you're looking for an Outright Winner (for which he is 22.021/1 to back) never mind someone to finish as the Top European. I do think a few Americans and South Africans hold just as strong claims as Rose to win however, and can be backed at better odds, but I will be very surprised if the Englishman doesn't finish in the top 10 this week and therefore he has to be a contender in this market at 7.413/2.
You can make a case for a number of star Europeans playing well this week - should Luke Donald be as big as 12.5n/a (and 44.043/1 to win outright) on the back of a relatively poor start to the season for example?
And should we dismiss Ian Poulter (18.017/1) - who has never missed a cut at Augusta - and last year's third Peter Hanson (20.019/1) lightly?
And what about Sergio Garcia (15.014/1), a back-to-form Henrik Stenson (23.022/1), and last week's impressive winner Martin Laird (40.039/1)? All can be top European on their day, but my other selection is going to be an old favourite of mine.
Lee Westwood has slipped down the world rankings in the last year, and he's not being talked up as much as he has at recent US Masters. Hopefully that will all play in to Westwood's hands because there's no doubt in my mind that the pressure does get to him from time to time.
True, Westwood is a dreadful putter, but I've said it before and I'll say it again; while his tee-to-green game is so good all it will take for him to win one of these events is an above average week with the flat stick. When you consider how many short putts he missed last year, yet he still finished in a tie for third just two shots off the winner, then you start to struggle to find a way to dismiss him.
And there was evidence in Houston a fortnight ago that his putting is much better, especially during the third round where he rolled in countless 10-footers.
Yes, he did miss some short ones too, but doesn't he always - you just accept (through gritted teeth admittedly) that with Westwood he'll always miss a short one from time to time. But he loves Augusta having finished second and third here in the last three years, and he could easily put up another strong challenge this week, especially in this market at odds of 9.89/1.
Recommended Bets
Back Justin Rose @ 7.413/2
Back Lee Westwood @ 9.89/1
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August 28, 2012
The Omega European Masters: Wiesberger value to make it three, says The Punter
“Berndt Wiesberger is an in-form clinical closing multiple European Tour winner and he’s far too big at 60.059/1 in this grade.”
Flushed with success after Paul Lawrie's win in Scotland, Steve takes a look at this week's European Tour action from Switzerland. Could our man pick back-to-back winners on the Race to Dubai?
Tournament History
With an illustrious list of champions that includes Bob Charles, Nick Price, Nick Faldo, Seve Ballesteros (three times), José María Olazábal, Sergio Garcia, Ernie Els, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, to name but a few, the Omega European Masters has a rich history dating right back to 1923.
It's been a European Tour event since 1972 and it's a bit disappointing to see a relatively weak field this week, thanks to its current slot in the schedule - opposite the second PGA Tour playoff event, the Deutsche Bank Championship, which starts on Friday. The tournament has been co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour since 2009.
Venue
Crans-sur-Sierre, Crans Montana, Switzerland
Course Details
Par 71, 6822 yards
Stroke index in 2011 - 70.55
Winding its way through the beautiful mountains of Crans Montana, Crans-sur-Sierre is a visually stunning venue. At way below 7,000 yards, it's very short by modern standards and the last three winners have all achieved a total of at least 20 under-par.
With small upturned-saucer like greens, accuracy is most certainly the key attribute and Greens In Regulation and Scrambling are the two main stats to concentrate on. Three of the last four winners ranked 1st or 2nd for GIR and the three winners between 2007 and 2009 all topped the Scrambling stats.
Although a neat and tidy short game is what usually gets the job done here, the longer hitters can take advantage of the scoring holes. The par five opening hole, measuring just 540 yards, always ranks the easiest on the course, holes 6 and 7 are drivable par fours and the back-to-back par fives, 14 and 15, also offer great birdie/eagle chances.
Useful Sites
Tournament Site
Tee Times
Weather Forecast
TV Coverage
Live on Sky all four days - 10.30am and 3.30pm on Thursday and Friday and 12pm on Saturday and Sunday.
Last Five Winners
2011 - Thomas Bjorn -20
2010 - Miguel Angel Jimenez -21
2009 - Alexander Noren - 20
2008 - Jean-Francois Lucquin -13 (playoff)
2007 - Brett Rumford -16 (playoff)
Is there an identikit winner?
As mentioned, accurate iron-play and good scrambling pay dividends - the players will be hitting an awful lot of wedges into the greens this week, setting up plenty of birdie chances so a great short game is key but its also worth noting that in-form players have fared well in recent years too.
Last year's winner, Thomas Bjorn had won the Johnnie Walker Championship seven days earlier and Edoardo Molinari finished second in 2010 after winning in Scotland the week before. And both Bjorn and Miguel Angel Jimenez in 2010 were winning their third event of the year.
In-Play Tactics
A fast start is important at Crans. Its 14 years since any winner was worse than five strokes off the lead after day one or three back at halfway, so it makes sense to concentrate on the front of the leaderboard from early on.
The harder holes come in three sets of three - the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th, the 11th, 12th, and 13th and the final three. If your pick has hit the front after playing the reachable par five pair of 14 and 15, it might make sense to take some profit before they encounter the long par 3 16th, which always ranks the toughest hole on the course.
Market Leaders
Favourite Peter Hanson makes very little appeal. His 7th placed finish at the US PGA Championship last time out was impressive but he has no course form to speak of and it's now two years since his last success.
Last week's winner Paul Lawrie is bidding to emulate Bjorn of last year and achieve the unique Qatar Masters, Johnnie Walker Championship and Omega European Masters treble. That really would be quite bizarre and I can't see him doing it. His form at Crans isn't great, although he did finish second ten years ago, and he's often a slow starter, something that will really hamper him here. I imagine he's celebrated his latest success and that won't help either.
Former winners Bjorn and Alex Noren are both respected but both are a shade short for my liking and I liked Matteo Manassero at first glance but he also looks a bit short given his poor form of late.
Selections
Nobody in the field has a more solid bank of course form than 2010 winner Miguel Angel Jimenez and he looked a more than fair price at 36.035/1. He hasn't had the greatest of seasons but he turned the corner in no uncertain terms at last month's Open Championship, where he finished in the top-ten - ranking 1st for putting. Next time out, he finished 27th at the US PGA Championship, where he ranked 4th for both Driving Accuracy and GIR and 16th for putting. A missed cut at Gleneagles last week wasn't ideal but was he only there to support his Ryder Cup captain anyway?
Miguel will be buoyed by last week's announcement that he's Olazábal's fourth and final vice-captain at the fast-approaching Ryder Cup and given he's finished inside the top-ten in each of the last four years here, it would be no surprise whatsoever if he featured again this time around.
As previously mentioned, the last two winners were winning their third event of the season when they found success here; could lightening strike for a third time? Considering he was beaten in a playoff there 12 months ago, I was quite surprised that Austria's Berndt Wiesberger wasn't in the field at last week's Johnnie Walker Championship and I did wonder if there might have been a slight problem with the recent Austrian Open winner. It seems not, he was actually acclimatising himself well for this week's event, winning the Zurich Open pro-am with two rounds of 67.
Berndt missed the cut here on his only appearance but that came off the back of that disappointing playoff defeat last year and I'm happy to dismiss it. The Austrians an in-form clinical closing multiple European Tour winner and he's far too big at 60.059/1 in this grade.
Argentines often prosper at mountain venues and I've decided to make a small play on the only two in the field this week. Ricardo Gonzalez won this event in 2001 and he'd love to emulate his fellow countryman Eduardo Romero and win it twice.
Tano Goya zipped over to Switzerland after missing the cut in Scotland last week and very nearly won. A triple-bogey at the 15th hole in the second and final round of the Zurich Open stopped him in his tracks but he still finished second to Wiesberger.
Selections:
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ 36.035/1
Berndt Wiesberger @ 60.059/1
Ricardo Gonzalez @ 200.0199/1
Tano Goya @ 400.0399/1
The week's other event, the Deutsche Bank Championship doesn't start until Friday but I'll be back tonight or early tomorrow with a preview.
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March 5, 2012
Opta Stats: Arsenal and Benfica's European exits to be confirmed
Champions League 
/ Michael Lintorn / 05 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Benfica conceded top spot in Portugal to champions Porto on Friday night
"Benfica have won just one of their last four Champions League games, a 1-0 home victory over Romanian side Galati."
Michael Lintorn has examined the Opta stats and picked out four bets for Tuesday's Champions League games, in which he sees neither home side triumphing...
Milan are unbeaten in their last five Champions League away matches, drawing the last four
Arsenal built confidence ahead of this tie by winning at Anfield, but it must have been diminished as AC Milan thrashed Serie A's second strongest hosts Palermo 4-0 a few hours later. Another Opta trend lending itself to the draw is that the Gunners are unbeaten in 12 Champions League games at the Emirates.
In each of the previous five meetings between Arsenal and AC Milan (including European Super Cup), at least one has team failed to score
And while this insight might appear to contradict the above evidence for the draw, it is also worth noting that the two prior clashes between the pair in north London both finished 0-0, a statistic which doesn't exactly bode well for Arsenal's chances of pulling off an unlikely comeback.
Benfica have won just one of their last four Champions League games, a 1-0 home victory over Romanian side Galati
That was nothing to shout about either, as Galati exited the group stage without a point. Benfica's campaign has derailed recently with a four-match winless run, the latest blip a costly home defeat to Porto, so they can't be relied upon at odds-on against Zenit, who have never lost to a Portuguese club.
Benfica have scored at least one goal in each of their 11 games in Europe this season (including qualifiers)
This pearl suggests that even if this is the end of Benfica's Champions League challenge, they will net on their way out. That's a fair assumption given that the first leg finished 3-2, while the duo were involved in 2-3 and 2-2 fixtures over the weekend. Jorge Jesus' hosts have fired only two blanks all season.
Recommended Bets:
Back Arsenal and AC Milan to draw @ [3.75]
Back Both teams to score? No in Arsenal v AC Milan @ [2.42]
Lay Benfica at home to Zenit St Petersburg @ [1.73]
Back Both teams to score? Yes in Benfica v Zenit St Petersburg @ [1.85]
APOEL are going to need to snap out of their Champions League goal drought fairly sharpish if they are to avoid elimination on Wednesday......
There looks to be no way back for Bayer Leverkusen in their Champions League round-of-16 clash with Barcelona, as these statistics explain......
Both teams will feel they have a great chance of going through in this tie after Zenit's slender 3-2 win in Russia, but what do the Opta stats say......
February 17, 2012
Against All Odds: Man City European clash to produce goals
Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 16 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Manchester City travel to Portugal this evening for a first leg clash against FC Porto in the Europa League. It's expected to be a tight affair but Paul Robinson thinks that both goalkeepers will be kept very busy.
Porto find themselves in this competition after a disappointing Champions League campaign which saw them pick up only eight points from a group that consisted of Shakhtar Donetsk, Zenit St Petersburg and APOEL Nicosia.
The main problem was that they dropped too many points at home as their results at Estádio do Dragão were; 2-1, 1-1, 0-0.
Domestically, the Dragons lie second in the Primeira Liga with 43 points from 18 matches, which is five points less than table toppers, Benfica. While goals were hard to come by in Europe, Vítor Pereira's men have been free scoring in the league and they have notched 42 already this year, so I am willing to put their Champions League bluntness down to a blip, especially when they have the likes of James Rodriguez and the incredible Hulk in the team.
Manchester City also bowed out of the Champions League in the group phase and as it was their debut season in the competition, coupled with the fact that they had a tough draw, I can overlook their poor European displays and assume that they will improve from now on.
In terms of goals, three out of their six fixtures went Over 2.5 Goals, including two out of three away from home. The goals have dried up a touch domestically of late, but while the Carlos Tevez saga continues. Mario Balotelli is available for European competition and he has a knack for producing goals on the big stage.
Roberto Mancini will be desperate to lift the cup as the shadow of Jose Mourinho looms large in the background, so you can expect him to send his side out to grab at least one away goal this evening.
Recent results point to a low scoring affair but both of these teams have plenty of goals in them and they will both be taking it very seriously. Under 2.5 Goals is trading at around [1.89] and that seems a bit skinny to me as I really fancy this one to be a goalfest.
Recommended Bet: Lay Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.89]
Juventus travel to Parma tonight in Italy's Serie A knowing that a win will return them to the top of the table. The market has them odds-on but Paul Robinson thinks that Parma will be no pushovers....
Leyton Orient travel to Bournemouth this evening for a clash in the third tier of English football. The home side are odds-on but Orient have lost just twice in their last 11 on their travels. Paul Robinson talks us through...
Napoli host Chievo this evening in Italy's Serie A. The home side are expected to win comfortably but Paul Robinson believes that the value lies in the goal markets....
February 7, 2012
European Tour Form Guide: Windy conditions in Lawrie's favour again
Golf Form Guide / Mike Norman / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Will Paul Lawrie follow up last week’s win in Qatar with a Dubai Desert Classic win?
"Paul Lawrie's odds to win in Dubai might look a tad skinny at [38.0], but if the expected high winds materialise - as they did last week in Qatar - he could well prove the man to beat again."
After his fantastic performance in Qatar last week there's no reason why Form Guide leader Paul Lawrie can't win again says Mike Norman, especially if the wind blows.
Another excellent result was enjoyed by the Form Guide at last week's Qatar Masters. True, eventual winner Paul Lawrie wasn't one of our Players to Watch but he so nearly was.
But for a late dropped shot in Abu Dhabi the week before, Lawrie would have been higher up on the Form Guide ahead of the Qatar Masters and an automatic choice for that event. Still, of the 132 golfers assembled in Qatar, Lawrie - available to back at [60.0] pre-tournament - was fifth on our list and very much someone to consider.
On top of all that, last week's headline player Peter Hanson finished tied second meaning both the winner and second were highlighted on our Form Guide list prior to the Qatar Masters starting. Hanson was available to lay at [3.0] when holding a two-shot lead on Saturday.
This week sees the climax to the Desert Swing with the staging of the 23rd Dubai Desert Classic, an event that despite the absence of Tiger Woods (who usually plays here) still has an extremely strong look to it.
Tournament Finishing Positions
(Tournaments used: Qatar Masters, Abu Dhabi Championship, Volvo Golf Champions, Joburg Open, Africa Open, Dubai World Championship)
Paul Lawrie (4)... 31
Branden Grace (2)... 24
Peter Hanson (2)... 20
Louis Oosthuizen (3)... 20
Robert Rock (3)... 19
Retief Goosen (2)... 16.5
Jaco Van Zyl (2)... 13.5
Jason Day (1)... 13
Rory McIlroy (1)... 12
Alvaro Quiros (1)... 12
Charl Schwartzel (2) ... 12
*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in qualifying period
**players in bold are scheduled to participate in the next tournament on tour
Not surprisingly for someone who has figures of 2-10-8-1 from his last four outings on the European Tour, Lawrie tops this week's guide. The Scot has been in fantastic form of late and clearly loves playing in the desert. His odds to win in Dubai might look a tad skinny at [38.0], but if the expected high winds materialise - as they did last week in Qatar - Lawrie could well prove the man to beat again.
As I've mentioned previously, the Players to Watch are automatic choices based on the top three players in the list who are participating in the upcoming event on Tour, and that means that Branden Grace ([100.0]) is still on our radar. However, like last week, I'm more confident of a decent showing from Peter Hanson ([29.0]) who, like Lawrie, remains in terrific form.
Players to watch: Paul Lawrie [38.0], Branden Grace [100.0], Peter Hanson [29.0]
The Cut-makers
Paul Lawrie... 19
Jaco Van Zyl... 17.5
Charl Schwartzel... 14.5
George Coetzee... 13.5
Retief Goosen... 12.5
Thomas Bjorn... 12
Luke Donald... 12
Ernie Els... 12
Jamie Elson... 12
Robert Karlsson... 12
With just one round played after the cut at the Qatar Masters Jaco Van Zyl couldn't make his way up the leaderboard as he has done in previous weeks. He remains a player to watch In-Play however, and so too does that man Lawrie. He is a proven winner, a former major champion no less, and showed at last year's end-of-season Dubai World Championship, and in Qatar last week when recording the joint lowest score of the final round, that he is very reliable in contention.
Keep an eye out also for George Coetzee. The general consensus is that he doesn't play well in contention, but as this mini In-Play guide shows, he hasn't performed too badly in recent weeks on a weekend. I know a few betting.betfair golf experts who rate the South African very highly.
Players to watch In-Play: Paul Lawrie, Jaco Van Zyl, George Coetzee
*You can read a full preview of this week's Dubai Desert Classic by reading The Punter's unmissable thoughts on the event tomorrow.
Ignore Peter Hanson's final round collapse in Abu Dhabi says Mike Norman, the Swede is still playing well and is one of this week's Form Guide's three suggested players....
The European Tour moves to UAE this week where a world class field has been assembled, but Mike Norman's Form Guides points us firmly in the direction of a likeable desert specialist....
Mike Norman's updated form guide has thrown up a trio of South African-born players to follow at this week's prestigious Volvo Golf Champions event....
January 31, 2012
European Tour Form Guide: Peter a Hanson bet in Qatar
Golf Form Guide / Mike Norman / 30 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Swede Peter Hanson
"Retief Goosen and Peter Hanson are of more interest however - the former showing glimpses of his best form in recent weeks, whilst Hanson’s final round display last week is best ignored."
Ignore Peter Hanson's final round collapse in Abu Dhabi says Mike Norman, the Swede is still playing well and is one of this week's Form Guide's three suggested players.
If it was a 'dream' for Robert Rock just to be playing in the same group as Tiger Woods, I wonder how he's feeling now that he went head-to-head with the great man in the final group on a Sunday - and defeated him.
It was a fabulous performance from Rock, and although he wasn't one of our 'Players to Watch' last week, the likeable down to earth Englishman was recording his third top-10 finish and fourth top-12 finish in his last four events, so a form clue was definitely there.
Alvaro Quiros was a big disappointment for us last week but two of our other players to watch - Charl Schwartzel and Peter Hanson - got into contention at different stages and traded significantly lower than their pre-tournament odds.
The Tour stays in the desert this week for the Qatar Masters where another strong field has assembled. Lee Westwood is the early favourite at [11.0], just ahead of Martin Kaymer and Sergio Garcia, both available to back at [16.0]. American Ryder Cup star Hunter Mahan ([25.0]) makes a rare but welcome appearance on the European Tour but I doubt his presence will generate anywhere near as much attention as Tiger Woods did seven days ago.
Tournament Finishing Positions
(Tournaments used: Abu Dhabi Championship, Volvo Golf Champions, Joburg Open, Africa Open, Dubai World Championship, UBS Hong Kong Open)
Branden Grace (2)... 27
Rory McIlroy (2)... 26
Robert Rock (3)... 22
Retief Goosen (2)... 21
Louis Oosthuizen (3)... 21
Peter Hanson (2)... 15
Alvaro Quiros (2)... 15
Charl Schwartzel (2) ... 14
Paul Lawrie (3)... 14
Jaco Van Zyl (2)... 13.5
*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in qualifying period
**players in bold are scheduled to participate in the next tournament on tour
Branden Grace remains top of our form guide as the fact is, despite missing the cut in Abu Dhabi, he has won two of his last three events. Retief Goosen and Hanson are of more interest however - the former showing glimpses of his best form in recent weeks, whilst Hanson's final round display last week is best ignored. The Swede recorded a magnificent eight under par third round on Saturday but looked visibly nervous playing in the same group as Woods on Sunday.
Players to watch: Branden Grace [70.0], Retief Goosen [30.0], Peter Hanson [44.0]
The Cut-makers
Jaco Van Zyl... 17.5
Charl Schwartzel... 14.5
George Coetzee... 13.5
Retief Goosen... 12.5
Thomas Bjorn... 12
Ernie Els... 12
David Drysdale... 12
Robert Karlsson... 12
Jamie Elson... 12
Luke Donald... 12
Gregory Havret... 12
Jaco Van Zyl is becoming a solid weekend performer. If scores were reset at the halfway stage the South African would have finished first, fourth, and eighth in his last three events and is a total of 26 shots under par for the last six weekend rounds he has played. Van Zyl is definitely a player to watch In-Play when making the cut and is worth keeping an eye on in various markets depending on how far back he is.
Players to watch In-Play: Jaco Van Zyl, George Coetzee, Retief Goosen
Don't forget to check back later in the week for The Punter's in depth preview of this event.
The European Tour moves to UAE this week where a world class field has been assembled, but Mike Norman's Form Guides points us firmly in the direction of a likeable desert specialist....
Mike Norman's updated form guide has thrown up a trio of South African-born players to follow at this week's prestigious Volvo Golf Champions event....
Mike Norman kicks off his new Form Guide column with a look at the best performing players on the European Tour currently, and recent winner Louis Oosthuizen heads the list....
January 27, 2012
European Transfer List: Five biggest January movers so far
European Leagues / Michael Lintorn / 27 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Maxwell was Paris St-Germain's first major signing under Carlo Ancelotti
"Most of the exciting transfer speculation to have done the rounds this month has involved the [1.41] Ligue 1 favourites, with Carlos Tevez, Kaka and Alexandre Pato among the big names linked."
It has been a fairly dull window, and even the final days threaten to underwhelm with Carlos Tevez now judged unlikely to move. Michael Lintorn picks out five high-profile transfers that actually have taken place...
Gary Cahill (Bolton to Chelsea, £7 million)
Chelsea conceded as many goals in the first half of this season (24) as they did throughout four of the last seven campaigns. To solve that problem, they opted to reunite John Terry with an England colleague. One advantage of buying from Bolton is that there's no need to worry about Champions League ineligibility; they are [16.0] to win that competition.
Maxwell (Barcelona to Paris St-Germain, £3.35 million)
Most of the exciting transfer speculation to have done the rounds this month has involved the [1.41] Ligue 1 favourites, with Carlos Tevez, Kaka and Alexandre Pato among the big names linked since Carlo Ancelotti's arrival. Their first signing wasn't quite as glamorous, with the defence strengthened by the capture of Barcelona's Brazilian left back.
Jose Antonio Reyes (Atletico Madrid to Sevilla, £2.9 million)
Reyes once changed clubs for a sum rising to £17 million in January, and though the fee for his latest switch doesn't come close to that, it's been the standout deal of a very quiet Spanish window. The 28-year-old returns to his local side, while his former employers have welcomed back an icon of their own, hiring Diego Simeone as coach.
Papiss Cisse (Freiburg to Newcastle, £10 million)
At the start of 2012, it seemed like the only chance of Newcastle appearing on this list was by selling one of their stars, but instead caught everyone off guard with the eight-figure purchase of one of the most prolific players in the Bundesliga over the last 18 months. The Senegalese striker is [2.9] to help the Magpies maintain their top-six position.
Eduardo Vargas (Universidad de Chile to Napoli, £11.5 million)
Five Napoli starters hail from South America, not to mention their idol Diego Maradona, and it is hoped that Vargas will be their latest hero from the continent. The Chilean forward has arrived for a hefty amount from Copa Sudamericana winners Universidad de Chile, yet Walter Mazzarri plans to bed him in slowly after a poor debut against Cesena.
Loan deals and free transfers have been ignored, in case you're wondering where Paul Scholes and Thierry Henry are...
James Eastham believes the defending French league champions will lack firepower without their Senegal international....
Lille were crowned French champions last season and are the team to follow in 2012, says James Eastham, who also picks out this weekend's best bets....
Three months after ending his brief spell as Nottingham Forest boss by resigning, Steve McClaren is expected to return to management at the club where he enjoyed his greatest success, Twente....
January 18, 2012
European Transfer News: Fun for Ancelotti at Paris St-Germain
French Football / Michael Lintorn / 18 January 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Carlo Ancelotti has been left spoilt for choice in terms of potential signings
"Agents have nudged him in the direction of Radamel Falcao, Carlos Tevez, Fernando Torres, Dimitar Berbatov, Roman Pavlyuchenko, Edinson Cavani and Fernando Llorente."
Carlo Ancelotti has confirmed that life in charge of Paris St-Germain is like living in a candy shop, but nobody is too certain whether they will sign Carlos Tevez...
The latest news involving Carlos Tevez's future varies depending on where you read it. Some reports claim that he is close to joining Paris St-Germain, others hint that Inter will up their bid and the rest take the dreaded stance that the saga remains nowhere near a conclusion.
Regardless of whether Paris St-Germain capture Tevez - [3.6] to stay at Manchester City - or not, the final fortnight of the transfer window promises to be a hectic time for the French club, and new coach Carlo Ancelotti appears to be loving it.
The former Chelsea boss certainly hasn't been shy over the last 48 hours, discussing everything from possible big-name purchases to the lure of Paris to the importance of the players already there and - most unnecessarily - why his old employers should get shot of Didier Drogba.
His standout revelation, and one that hasn't been crushed as you would expect if he was misquoted or just talking nonsense, was that agents have nudged him in the direction of Radamel Falcao, Tevez, Fernando Torres, Dimitar Berbatov, Roman Pavlyuchenko, Edinson Cavani and Fernando Llorente.
Quite a shortlist of strikers to pick from, and one that you suspect must seriously unnerve current line-leader Kevin Gameiro, who has scored nine in 19 Ligue 1 starts since being bought from Lorient.
Ancelotti has vowed not to completely rip apart the team that he has inherited though, instead pledging to only ditch half of them. He said: "Stars will arrive, but the spine of this group will remain the same. More than half of the current players will be here next season."
The Italian tactician, who plans to revisit his interest in Kaka and Alexandre Pato in the summer, also admits that having taken over a side top of the table following the rather harsh sacking of Antoine Kombouare, it will reflect badly on him if they fail to win the title.
A 3-1 victory over Toulouse in his first league game ensures that the two-time champions are still three points clear of Montpellier and convincing [1.4] favourites to finish first.
This was a bad weekend for Ligue 1 contenders Lille and Lyon. Table-toppers PSG did win but there are reasons to believe they may not last the distance. All of which may pave the way for Montpellier, says Ben Lyttleton....
Lille were crowned French champions last season and are the team to follow in 2012, says James Eastham, who also picks out this weekend's best bets....
After a fortnight of speculation, it is being reported in Italy and France that Paris St-Germain have finally made an offer for AC Milan striker Alexandre Pato......
August 31, 2011
The Punter's picks for the Omega European Masters and the Deutsche Championship
The Punter / Steven Rawlings / 31 August 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Jason Day – Runner-up last year, can he go one better?
“I tried very hard to stop myself from backing Jason Day but failed. Last year’s runner-up impresses almost every week and it’s highly possible that he’ll be bobbing around the top of the leaderboard come Monday night.”
Steve looks to the Spanish contingency for success in the Alps. Whilst in the States, is it going to be Jason's Day on Monday?
The picturesque Crans-sur-Sierre course hosts the Omega European Masters for the 65th time this year and the event, now co-sanctioned with the Asian Tour, has attracted one of the best non-major line-ups of the season.
A strong case can be made for any of the first three in the market. Rory McIlroy should have won his maiden event here in 2008, and he finished 7th a year later. Lee Westwood won here way back in 1999 and he's been in tremendous form of late (until he gets to the green and putts!) and Matteo Manassero will win this event at some stage. His third placed finish last year could very easily have been better and his game clearly fits the venue perfectly. But are any of them a value price?
We've not seen Rors since his crazy wrist-wrecking tree root trick at the PGA Championship. Westwood's putting is atrocious, and his form here hasn't been as spectacular as the views since his win anyway, and Manny is not in great form, though he was the closest to inclusion.
I was tempted by Francesco Molinari, who like Manny has the game for Crans, and had he been a fraction bigger I'd have taken a chance on the out-of-form Italian. And Alex Noren and Seung-Yul Noh were both also on the shortlist but in the end I've left them all out.
My first pick is last year's winner, Miguel Angel Jimenez, at what could be a huge price. This is the popular veteran's 23rd consecutive appearance and he has ten top-ten finishes here. His last three year's figures read 3-4-1. He hasn't been himself since breaking his putter in Bahrain but with a course record so strong, he simply had to be backed. Besides, I envisage a bit of Spanish inspiration this year...
The late Seve Ballesteros will be on the minds of many this week and there's a strong Spanish contingency. Crans was the scene of one his most wondrous shots and a marble plaque on the 18th commemorates it. He made numerous course changes back in the 1990's and if there's an event the Spanish will want to bag this season, it's this one, so I've backed a number of them.
There are few players in the field (if any) in better form than South African George Coetzee and after coming up close with him last week in Scotland, I've again supported him here. There's every chance he could bounce after last week's near miss but if he doesn't, with its drivable par fours and reachable par fives, George could just get on a roll.
I've detailed the case for Thorbjorn Olesen and Brett Rumford in this week's Find Me a 100 Winner piece and I've also backed the 2001 champ, Argentine Ricardo Gonzalez at a monster price.
Selections:
Miguel Angel Jimenez @ [40.0]
George Coetzee @ [50.0]
Thorbjorn Olesen @ [120.0]
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano @ [170.0]
Brett Rumford @ [180.0]
Pablo Martin @ [260.0]
Alejandro Canizares @ [300.0]
Ricardo Gonzalez @ [310.0]
The ninth staging of the Deutsche Bank Championship, which doesn't start until Friday, is the second FedEx Cup playoff event. It's Labor Day on Monday in the States and this event traditionally finishes up on Monday.
Charley Hoffman was a shock winner twelve months ago but most years a really class-act picks up the prize. Five of the eight winners to date have been ranked in the top three in the world rankings at the time of their victory and in contrast to the European Masters, I don't think trawling through the players at big odds will pay dividends and all four of my picks are relatively short.
Given he's only chalked up one win so far, I tried very hard to stop myself from backing Jason Day but failed. Last year's runner-up impresses almost every week and it's highly possible that he'll be bobbing around the top of the leaderboard come Monday night.
Olin Browne and Steve Stricker have both won here so you don't necessarily need to bomb it off the tee but it certainly helps. Where it lands doesn't appear to matter too much though- Driving Accuracy isn't an important stat. The stats that do count at TPC Boston are Par 5 performance, Greens In Regulation and Birdie Average.
Five of the eight winners have ranked first for Par 5 Performance and two have ranked second. Seven of the eight winners have ranked in the top-10 for GIR and making lots of birdies is essential - Hoffman made 28 last year!
Webb Simpson looks the perfect fit. He currently ranks second for Par 5 Performance, 14th for GIR and third for Birdie Average. His first round 71 at The Barclays was just too poor to see him go back-to-back after his maiden win at the Wyndham Championship a fortnight ago but he finished like a train with rounds of 66 and 63. He's plainly in good heart, has the game for the venue and at [40.0], he was a no-brainer pick.
Another of last week's selections, Camilo Villegas, gets another chance. He's going in the right direction all of a sudden with two top-10's in-a-row and he was third here in 2008. And finally, Bubba Watson ranks in the top-12 for all three key stats and he could just bounce back to form at a big price.
Selections:
Jason Day @ [26.0]
Webb Simpson @ [40.0]
Camilo Villegas @ [65.0]
Bubba Watson @ [70.0]
It's been a good week for Steve, as Dustin Johnson wins a sprint in New Jersey and Thomas Bjorn eventually secures victory in a Scottish marathon......
With a win in the bag in the States already, our man takes a detailed look at the state of play at Gleneagles and it's a case of Bjorn again for Steve......
Rock steady Robert gets the nod in Scotland and Rose is taken to bloom in New Jersey. Read the Punter's preview of this week's golf action here......
June 26, 2011
European Grand Prix Betting: Hamilton hopes fade with Red Bull 1-2
Formula One / James Frankland / 25 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Sebastian Vettel starts on pole in Valencia
"I expect to see a straight fight between the Red Bull pair but it’s hard to look beyond Vettel for the victory."
The world champion and his team-mate lead on the grid in Valencia and, with a dry race forecast, James Frankland can't see any way back in for the McLarens.
Sebastian Vettel secured his 22nd career pole position in Valencia, the seventh from eight races for the 2010 World Champion. Vettel's teammate Mark Webber made it an all-RB7 front row, lapping just two tenths of a second slower, with perennial second-rowers Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso third and fourth.
The teams went into the weekend with a ban on 'hot-blown' exhausts - where fuel is ignited in the exhaust pipe and fed through the diffuser to generate more downforce - expected to upset the competitive order but, as most things appear to be more or less equal after today's qualifying, we can conclude that the ban has affected each team to about the same degree.
No rain is expected to fall during tomorrow's race so we're unlikely to see a topsy-turvy contest such as the rain-delayed four hour epic that was served up two weeks ago in Canada. With the absence of rain, also gone are the best hopes for the likes of Hamilton, Alonso and their McLaren and Ferrari stablemates to upset the leading duo. I expect to see a straight fight between the Red Bull pair in tomorrow's race but, as ever, it's hard to look beyond Vettel for the victory.
Given the street track nature of the Valencia circuit, there's a high likelihood of the safety car making an appearance, although probably not as often as the five occasions it was seen in Canada. Williams' Pastor Maldonado caused a red flag in qualifying after his car conked out in a tricky spot, so backing the safety car to appear at [1.98] seems a sensible option.
Another stat which came my way recently was that, despite his seven pole positions and five wins this year, Vettel has not set a single fastest lap during any race in 2011. Webber at [1.64] is the favourite for race pace tomorrow - hardly surprising as he occupies the same machinery as Vettel - but Hamilton and [3.25] and Alonso at [4.3] are also worth looking at.
Sauber's Kamui Kobayashi has been a man to watch this year, with bold overtaking moves and good strategy seeing him claw back positions and points. Last year at this race he surprised everyone by running until four laps from the end on the same set of tyres, then switching and gained two places, including overtaking Alonso's Ferrari, on his way to seventh place. The Japanese starts 14th in tomorrow's race and is available at [1.9] for a points finish.
Recommended Bets
Sebastian Vettel to win @ [1.79]
Safety car to appear @ [1.98]
Hamilton to set fastest lap @ [3.25]
After a late error cost him the race in Canada, the World Champion is heading to Spain this weekend, determined to return to winning ways, says Ralph Ellis....
Button brings home the bacon for his In-Play backers with unbelievable come-from-behind win...
The world champion may be starting in pole position but James Frankland believes a certain Spaniard can upset the odds in Canada on Sunday night....
June 22, 2011
European Grand Prix Betting: Vettel can make amends in Valencia
Formula One / Ralph Ellis / 21 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Vettel in the Montreal rain - he will prefer the dry of Spain
"Vettel is [1.6] to take his sixth pole of the season, yet he’s [2.22] to win the race. Given his performances so far, that’s great value."
After a late error cost him the race in Canada, the World Champion is heading to Spain this weekend, determined to return to winning ways, says Ralph Ellis.
My mum, bless her, was always one for sayings. You know the sort of thing. I bet your mum was the same. 'You can't judge a book by its cover'; 'Plenty more fish in the sea'; 'Many a true word spoken in jest.'
She had another which I've kept as a favourite: 'He who never made a mistake, never made anything.' I still regularly trot it out now when I've mucked up at work, or failed at anything else I've tried. It's a good mantra because if you're scared to do things wrong then you'll never do anything at all.
I've just finished reading Matthew Syed's excellent book Bounce, on the psychology of creating a sporting champion. Among other things he's worked out that an Olympic figure-skating gold medal winner had fallen on her backside 20,000 times. It's not making mistakes that matters, it's how you learn from them and don't make them again.
Which brings us to Sebastian Vettel, who so spectacularly stuffed up on the last lap of the Canadian Grand Prix. The German was an absolute cert for his sixth win in seven races of the season so far until he lost control on a bend and let Jenson Button fly past him. It was an astonishing error, one that reminded you of how last year began with Vettel repeatedly starting on pole but failing to win.
You may recall. The 2010 season began with Vettel going through a series of blunders. Three times in the first four races of the season he qualified in first place, and each time he mucked it up. It wasn't until Valencia and the European Grand Prix that he was quickest in qualifying and led the race from start to finish. He had learned from what went wrong, and he went on learning all season to collect the title.
At every level sport encourages you to analyse performance and get better. This week, whether it's Vettel and Lewis Hamilton at the front of the grid, or Indian driver Narain Karthikeyan trying to reward some home support in Valencia for his Hispania Racing Team, everybody is trying to improve.
So it's a fair bet Vettel is heading to Spain with the thought in mind that he won't repeat what happened in Montreal. If he qualifies in pole, he'll win. Especially where the weather is dry, and the track warm. On a street circuit which is probably the toughest for overtaking in the calendar, even harder than Monaco, that's worth remembering.
Vettel is [1.6] to take his sixth pole of the season, yet he's [2.22] to win the race and, given his performances so far, that's great value.
I began this season thinking it made sense to lay Vettel at the start of Grand Prix weeks when the reigning champion was always such a short price. Yet even when I'd lost money doing that, I still sent some more down the drain by backing Lewis Hamilton in Monaco and Montreal. This week I've decided to learn from those mistakes and put my money on Vettel. At last. Now what was it my mum used to say?
Five things you might not know about Narain Karthikeyan
1. Born in Chennai in January 1977, his father G.R.Karthikeyan was seven times South India rally driving champion
2. Inspired by watching Formula One on TV, he persuaded his dad to send him age 14 to France to enrol in the Elf Winfred Racing School. From there he went to England and got a degree in business administration
3. Outside motor sport his big passion is wildlife photography.
4. He has had tutoring from Sachin Tendulkar on how to deal with the pressures of fame in India
5. His cousin is top Indian businesswoman Rajshree Pathy, chairman of the Indian Sugar Mills Association
Button brings home the bacon for his In-Play backers with unbelievable come-from-behind win...
The world champion may be starting in pole position but James Frankland believes a certain Spaniard can upset the odds in Canada on Sunday night....
Lewis Hamilton is Romilly Evans' pick for the Canadian GP, he only wishes the McLaren driver was more graceful....
June 6, 2011
The Betfair Contrarian: Why England will win the European Under-21 Championship
Under 21 European Championships / The Betfair Contrarian / 06 June 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Can this man lead England to glory in a major football competition?
"England have two players with 25 or more games under their belt, whereas Spain’s longest server is Diego Capel with 20, while there is also more stability at the top with Pearce now in his fifth year in charge. Spanish coach Luis Milla took over just last summer."
Arise Sir Stuart of Pearce! Psycho's knighthood is in the bag according to the Contrarian who is backing England to win a tournament in the sport known as soccer, is he off his rocker?!!! Judge for yourself by reading these four finely crafted arguments...
England's Under-21s haven't won the European Under-21 Championship since 1984, when incidentally they overcame the country perceived to be standing in their way on this occasion, Spain, in the final. However, after missing out on glory so narrowly in Sweden in 2009, the Contrarian is confident of a successful return to Scandinavia as they head to Denmark. Here's why he recommends that you should snap up the [5.3] on Stuart Pearce putting himself in contention for a knighthood...
England came so close last time
It's not unheard of for the runners-up of the previous European Under-21 Championship to claim victory in the final of the following tournament, with it proving a more frequent occurrence than in either the senior equivalent or the World Cup. England's chances of becoming the fourth side to go from losing finalists to winners in the space of two years have to be fancied even more because holders Germany and semi-finalists Sweden and Italy all failed to qualify.
Surprise champions are a rarity
While the presence of Iceland and Belarus in the competition's final eight will shock many, the likelihood of either actually taking the trophy is incredibly slim given the regularity with which the European Under-21 Championship is won by one of the continent's traditional power players. There have been ten instalments over the last 20 years, with Italy winning five, Holland two and Spain and Germany one. The one slight surprise was Czech Republic in 2002, though that was a bit of a freak as they triumphed in only two of their five matches, while they had an unusually strong squad, with Petr Cech, Zdenek Grygera and Milan Baros among those at their disposal. Of this year's participants, just Spain and England are in the top 20 of FIFA's senior world rankings, so the rarity of underdog success indicates that one of them will be crowned champions.
The Young Lions are a well-oiled unit...
At a level where the pool of players changes at an alarming rate, it is difficult to get a team operating as a cohesive unit because of the constant need to rebuild, so the fact that the England players have more experience of working in tandem than their main rivals is a considerable boost. Eleven of the 23 players named in the Young Lions' squad are in double figures when it comes to caps, compared to eight for favourites Spain [3.1] and Group A's shortest-priced nation Switzerland [8.8]. England also have two players with 25 or more games under their belt, whereas Spain's longest server is Diego Capel with 20, while there is also more stability at the top with Pearce now in his fifth year in charge. Spanish coach Luis Milla took over just last summer.
...and their big guns are more established than Spain's
Top-level experience is a rare commodity when it comes to the age range of players involved in this competition so those that have it undoubtedly possess a huge advantage. Prior to Michael Mancienne's recent switch from Chelsea to Hamburg, England were being represented by seven players that are on either Manchester United or Chelsea's books, and five of those made at least 16 Premier League appearances, with three making 25 or more (Tom Cleverley, Daniel Sturridge and Danny Welbeck). By contrast, the Spain party features no Real Madrid players and five from Barcelona, but they averaged nine top-flight outings to the English starlets' 15 and not one of them, even Bojan Krkic, reached double figures in terms of La Liga starts.
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