US Masters Betting: Rose and Westwood to fight out Top European honours

"I will be very surprised if the Englishman (Justin Rose) doesn’t finish in the top 10 this week and therefore he has to be a contender in this market."

Back Justin Rose @ 7.413/2

There's a plethora of side markets to get involved in at this week's US Masters, and here Mike Norman tells us who he believes are the best bets in the Top European market...

It's been 14 long years since a European golfer donned the famous Green Jacket, and on recent evidence it will take a big effort for one to win the first Major of the season come Sunday evening.

I've explained in more detail here as to why I believe the Europeans are worth opposing at this week's US Masters. It's nothing to do with them becoming bad players overnight, more the fact that the rest of the world are fighting back so to speak. And sure, some Europeans are bound to play well at Augusta during the course of the four competition days.

But the beauty of having a wager in the Top European market is that it doesn't matter where your selection finishes, as long as he's above everyone else from the same continent then you're a winner.

A total of 28 Europeans will tee off on Thursday, and although at least 20 of them have the ability to contend if at their very best, realistically we should be concentrating on the top echelons of the market for the most likely winner.

Not surprisingly Rory McIlroy heads the market at 5.49/2 to back, but despite a decent finish (and it was no more than decent given the strength of the field) at the Texas Open last week it seems the young Ulsterman has a lot to prove.

Since becoming the world number one at the end of last year McIlroy has had a lot to deal with. He has changed his equipment, has signed a mega-bucks sponsorship deal with Nike (and with that surely comes added pressure to succeed), and his private life is under more scrutiny than ever before. It seems in the early part of the season all this has had an affect on his game, and even last week his short game looked way off the standard required to contend at Augusta. He's not for me.

In total contrast to Rory, Justin Rose doesn't have a single question mark hanging above his head going into this week. He rarely puts in a bad performance these days, and his excellent second place finish at Bay Hill last time was his fifth runner-up spot in a big event since winning the WGC Cadillac Championship 13 months ago.

Rose's Masters record isn't too shabby either, recording four top-20 finishes in the last five years including a fifth place finish in 2008 and a top-10 finish last year.

In fact Rose ticks all the right boxes if you're looking for an Outright Winner (for which he is 22.021/1 to back) never mind someone to finish as the Top European. I do think a few Americans and South Africans hold just as strong claims as Rose to win however, and can be backed at better odds, but I will be very surprised if the Englishman doesn't finish in the top 10 this week and therefore he has to be a contender in this market at 7.413/2.

You can make a case for a number of star Europeans playing well this week - should Luke Donald be as big as 12.5n/a (and 44.043/1 to win outright) on the back of a relatively poor start to the season for example?

And should we dismiss Ian Poulter (18.017/1) - who has never missed a cut at Augusta - and last year's third Peter Hanson (20.019/1) lightly?

And what about Sergio Garcia (15.014/1), a back-to-form Henrik Stenson (23.022/1), and last week's impressive winner Martin Laird (40.039/1)? All can be top European on their day, but my other selection is going to be an old favourite of mine.

Lee Westwood has slipped down the world rankings in the last year, and he's not being talked up as much as he has at recent US Masters. Hopefully that will all play in to Westwood's hands because there's no doubt in my mind that the pressure does get to him from time to time.

True, Westwood is a dreadful putter, but I've said it before and I'll say it again; while his tee-to-green game is so good all it will take for him to win one of these events is an above average week with the flat stick. When you consider how many short putts he missed last year, yet he still finished in a tie for third just two shots off the winner, then you start to struggle to find a way to dismiss him.

And there was evidence in Houston a fortnight ago that his putting is much better, especially during the third round where he rolled in countless 10-footers.

Yes, he did miss some short ones too, but doesn't he always - you just accept (through gritted teeth admittedly) that with Westwood he'll always miss a short one from time to time. But he loves Augusta having finished second and third here in the last three years, and he could easily put up another strong challenge this week, especially in this market at odds of 9.89/1.

Recommended Bets

Back Justin Rose @ 7.413/2
Back Lee Westwood @ 9.89/1

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US Open Women's Final: Williams to win but Azarenka to fight hard

"We can envisage Azarenka taking seven or eight games and that immediately directs our attention to the Azarenka handicap markets for total games.

Selection: Azarenka +5.5 Games @ 2.01/1

Serena Williams is a hot favourite to win the Women's US Open later tonight but what does Abelson Info rates as the best bet of the game?

Victoria Azarenka (1) 5.39/2 v Serena Williams (4) 1.232/9
H-to-H 1-9

You will rarely find a Grand Slam final with such a short priced favourite as we have here. Serena has been in scintillating form all tournament and it will take more than a mere mortal to stop her.

Azarenka may have the number one seeding next to her name but we all know Serena is the real number one player in the world. Add in a crushing head to head record in favour of Williams and you will struggle to see much hope for Azarenka. There is just a little however as Serena has once or twice under performed in finals and has been known to get a little nervy with the finish line in sight. We are not saying Azarenka will win but she may well take more games off the American than most.

We can envisage Azarenka taking seven or eight games and that immediately directs our attention to the Azarenka handicap markets for total games. Azarenka +4.5 is tempting but the better bet is Azarenka +5.5 games.

Selection: Azarenka +5.5 Games @ 2.01/1

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German Grand Prix Betting: Three way fight

Formula One / James Frankland / 23 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Mark Webber has a great chance of winning after securing his second pole position in a row

"Given that, the choice of victor is not as easy as it might seem, with Vettel available at [3.5], polesitter Webber at [3.9] and Hamilton also at [3.9]. Alonso at [7.0] offers a greater return but I’m not sure Ferrari has enough here to trouble the podium."

We may have a very competitive race ahead of us on Sunday with Hamilton, Webber and Alonso very difficult to split in the betting. The weather, as ever, will play a big part, says James Frankland.

Mark Webber's second consecutive pole position puts him in the driving seat for the German Grand Prix at the Nürburgring, but the determined Aussie shouldn't expect to have it all his own way tomorrow.

The Red Bull driver won his first ever Grand Prix here two years ago, and needs a victory to start cutting into his teammate's 80-point lead in the Drivers Championship. This time around, Red Bull are facing a sterner challenge from a resurgent McLaren, evidenced by Lewis Hamilton splitting the blue cars to take second on the grid, just 0.055s slower than Webber. That dumped Vettel down to third, a position he hasn't seen all season. Silverstone race winner Fernando Alonso muscled his Ferrari into fourth, just two tenths slower than Vettel and will hope for a chance to continue his winning form.

The Nürburgring circuit is one that should favour the Red Bulls given the high number of fast, sweeping corners it possesses, but it also has enough braking and traction zones to bring the Ferraris and McLarens into play, and there are two other factors which could swing the balance in tomorrow's race.

First up is the weather - nestled high in the Eifel Mountains, the circuit has a habit of generating its own weather fronts and is highly unpredictable. Frequently in the past it has rained at one end of the circuit and not the other, which causes team strategists no end of problems. In 2007 we had such a monumental downpour that no fewer than six cars ended up in the same gravel trap at the end of the pit straight, and rain is predicted to arrive in time for the start of the race tomorrow. Given that, the choice of victor is not as easy as it might seem, with Vettel available at [3.5], polesitter Webber at [3.9] and Hamilton also at [3.9]. Alonso at [7.0] offers a greater return but I'm not sure Ferrari has enough here to trouble the podium.

The second factor is tyre strategy, although this may be dependent on whether or not the race is wet, as I'll explain.

If it stays dry, all drivers are required to use both the soft and medium compound tyres at least once during the race. This means that teams will run as much as possible on the softer, faster tyre, before switching to the slower medium compound, usually for the last stint of the race. Occasionally, as Mark Webber demonstrated brilliantly from 18th place in China, it is better to use the harder tyres first, get them out of the way and then use the softer tyres to make up places while others are obligated to use the slower tyre.

This weekend Pirelli have brought much more durable tyres to the race. The soft tyre is said to be capable of doing about 30 laps, compared to 10 - 15 at other races, while the medium tyre will do 100 laps, or nearly twice the race distance, but at a bigger cost in overall speed.

This has caused some teams to debate whether or not to make a stop in the last few laps of the race, to minimise the amount of time spent on the harder tyre and go all-out for the vast majority of the race. Conversely, we may see drivers outside the top ten - who have a free choice of which tyre to start with - starting on the hard tyre, pitting early for the softs and then going as far as possible on those - the Webber strategy. It's debatable whether the soft tyres could do the whole race, but I'd look out for the Sauber drivers who might try something along those lines. Sergio Perez starts 16th, Kamui Kobayashi 18th and both are already attractive at [2.8] for a points finish.

If the race is wet, the requirement to use both compounds of tyre goes out of the window. Everyone will use the softer tyres as soon as the track is dry enough, and it will be down to making the right call as to when to switch that will pay dividends.

Lots to explain, but it sets up a potentially enthralling race. For me, Webber is the man to take the spoils tomorrow. He knows the track well, has special memories of winning here, and is fired up after the team orders row in Silverstone two weeks ago.

Recommended bets:

Mark Webber to win @ [3.9]
Sebastian Vettel to finish on the podium @ [1.39]
Kamui Kobayashi or Sergio Perez to score points @ [2.5]

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