Showing posts with label Williams. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Williams. Show all posts

September 14, 2012

US Open Women's Final: Williams to win but Azarenka to fight hard

"We can envisage Azarenka taking seven or eight games and that immediately directs our attention to the Azarenka handicap markets for total games.

Selection: Azarenka +5.5 Games @ 2.01/1

Serena Williams is a hot favourite to win the Women's US Open later tonight but what does Abelson Info rates as the best bet of the game?


Victoria Azarenka (1) 5.39/2 v Serena Williams (4) 1.232/9
H-to-H 1-9

You will rarely find a Grand Slam final with such a short priced favourite as we have here. Serena has been in scintillating form all tournament and it will take more than a mere mortal to stop her.

Azarenka may have the number one seeding next to her name but we all know Serena is the real number one player in the world. Add in a crushing head to head record in favour of Williams and you will struggle to see much hope for Azarenka. There is just a little however as Serena has once or twice under performed in finals and has been known to get a little nervy with the finish line in sight. We are not saying Azarenka will win but she may well take more games off the American than most.

We can envisage Azarenka taking seven or eight games and that immediately directs our attention to the Azarenka handicap markets for total games. Azarenka +4.5 is tempting but the better bet is Azarenka +5.5 games.

Selection: Azarenka +5.5 Games @ 2.01/1

There are no comments on this article.


Amazon Sports Center

February 28, 2012

Handicappers' Corner: Will Williams claim a Festival Triumph?

Handicappers' Corner RSS / / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nick Williams: Trainer of Urbain de Sivola.

Nick Williams: Trainer of Urbain de Sivola.

"The fact Urbain de Sivola has been declared a definite runner is also a bonus and, in our opinion, he should be trading at considerably shorter odds than he currently is..."

The Triumph Hurdle has thrown up more than its fair share of big-priced winners down the years and, with no superstar to have emerged from the latest crop of juveniles, jumps handicapper Phil Turner argues that it could pay to search for value again this time around.....

Indeed, there has been plenty of action amongst the leading home-trained juveniles during the past week or so, yet the Nick Williams-trained Urbain de Sivola (Timeform rating h145) remains our highest-rated four-year-old and still warrants plenty of respect for Friday's opener despite having had to settle for a dead-heat with the year-older Ifyouletmefinish (h135) in a novice at Taunton last week.

Although bookmakers and punters alike seemed underwhelmed initially by that performance, it must be stressed that Urbain de Sivola's Triumph Hurdle claims actually didn't take a dent in form terms - he was receiving just 2 lb from a useful older novice at Taunton, whilst his clear-cut defeat of Ranjaan (h144p) at Newbury back in the autumn could hardly have worked out better. The fact Urbain de Sivola has been declared a definite runner is also a bonus and, in our opinion, he should be trading at considerably shorter odds than he currently is.

Williams, of course, has yet to saddle a Cheltenham Festival winner, but he's had several near-misses so far (no less than seven placed runners from his small team) and he can take solace from the fact that the Triumph Hurdle saw training greats Martin Pipe and David Nicholson break their ducks at the meeting with Baron Blakeney (66/1 in 1981) and Solar Cloud (40/1 in 1985) respectively, the latter also providing jockey Peter Scudamore with his long-awaited first Festival win.

Ranjaan's trainer Paul Nicholls, of course, has enjoyed plenty more good days than near-misses at the Festival in recent years, including in the Triumph itself thanks to victories by Celestial Halo in 2008 and Zarkandar (also a first Festival win for Williams' former stable jockey Daryl Jacob) in 2011. Nicholls looks to have a strong team again this time around, with the likes of Pearl Swan (h142) and Hinterland (h139+) also towards the head of Timeform's juvenile ratings at the moment.

It is possible, however, that his useful Irish Flat recruit Dodging Bullets (h131p) could emerge as the stable's best juvenile prospect alongside Ranjaan. He certainly shaped with plenty of promise when runner-up in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday, which was dominated by juveniles this year, with victory going to the more-experienced Grumeti (h140).

That was a third win from four starts over hurdles for Grumeti, falling with the race at his mercy on the other occasion, but he looks more exposed than most of the others towards the head of the Triumph Hurdle ante-post market and arguably lacks the stamina reserves often associated with winners of the Cheltenham race.

It is also possible that Grumeti isn't even the best four-year-old in his yard as Alan King, like Nicholls, has assembled another very strong team of juveniles and looks to have an even better prospect on his hands in the French import Balder Succes (h141p). Like some of the names already mentioned, Balder Succes has been mixing it successfully with older novices this winter and maintained his 100% record over hurdles with an impressive win in an Ascot novice recently.

The best Triumph trial in recent years, though, has been the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and there was an up-to-scratch renewal of that Kempton race on Saturday, with Baby Mix (h143) bouncing back from last month's Cheltenham flop to lower the colours of Sadler's Risk (h133), whilst fellow Triumph hopefuls Une Artiste (h127) and Dildar (h115p) came up well short for differing reasons. Sadler's Risk is likely to be suited by the stiffer test of stamina on offer at Cheltenham but, even so, he's got a bit to find if he's to trouble Baby Mix there - or Urbain de Sivola for that matter!

....................
Timeform ratings are in fine form! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton on Saturday was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.

Exciting though it was, The Breeders' Cup promised more than it delivered and needs to look to its laurels. Simon Rowlands considers the event from a rating point of view, in a week which also featured the Melbourne Cup and some good jumps action......

Form rather than hype, substance over style, achievement more than potential. That has long been the Timeform mantra, but this weekend's best Flat action provided an exception. Timeform Flat handicapper David Johnson explains....

It's had its knockers but, with Ascot bathed in autumn sunshine and high-quality fields for all five pattern races, few can argue that British Champions Day was anything but a resounding success. David Johnson reflects on the results from a ratings perspective......

Future Champions Day was the highlight of the racing in Europe this weekend, but, with neither the Middle Park nor Dewhurst producing a commanding winner, it's most unlikely that Timeform's Champion two-year-old was in action. We may, however, still have seen a top-class colt, as David Johnson reveals....


Amazon Sports Center

February 18, 2012

The Betfair Poker Interview: Nathan Williams

Poker News RSS / / 17 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Nathan Williams has played over 6 million hands of online poker.

Nathan Williams has played over 6 million hands of online poker.

"There’s just so much ego in poker. I mean, I try never to look at it, but anybody who’s ever been to my page on Poker Table Ratings, you can see the amount of hate because I’m playing the microstakes [laughs]. But I guess I just got over that at a certain point and recognized that a lot of people honestly do play these stakes."

When it comes to low or "microstakes" online poker, Nathan "BlackRain79" Williams of Vancouver, Canada may well be the most experienced player around. He's played more than 6 million hands of online poker, with full ring NL2 and NL5 his most frequently played game and stakes.

Such a wealth of experience at the micros has not only earned Williams a handsome profit -- greater than one might think possible at such limits -- but has made him an authority of sorts on these stakes as evidenced by his coaching, the instructional videos he's made for DragTheBar, and his strategy book Crushing the Microstakes which I reviewed last week.

This week I had a chance to talk with Williams about his background, his poker career, the book, and other topics.

Short-Stacked Shamus: First of all, congratulations on the book which I enjoyed a lot and I really do think fills a void as far as poker strategy texts go. How did you get the idea to write a book aimed primarily at microstakes players?

Nathan Williams:. Thanks. I make a lot of videos at those stakes for DragTheBar, so I figured if people are going to watch videos for those stakes maybe I could write a book and people would be interested, too. And so far it has worked out.

SSS: It seems to me there must be a huge audience for microstakes-level strategy, given how many players -- both recreational but also more serious-minded -- pretty much stick to those stakes. I wonder why there aren't more books or people making videos for players playing these limits?

NW: I asked that same question of Hunter [Bick], the CEO at DragTheBar. When they hired me to make videos at these limits, I asked him why other instructional sites don't seem to target these stakes. He told me that even though there is a huge player pool at these lower limits, they are the least likely to want to commit to put money down on a poker product.

SSS: Ah, that makes sense. Those playing the micros are going to be hesitant to spend money for strategy help. Or at least will be very judicious when they do.

NW: But you're right, if you look at PokerScout you see these are the limits where most people are playing, so it's kind of a pure numbers thing, eventually. If this amount of people are playing these games, if you do put out a product [for them] I think you're going to get sales.

SSS: So let me ask you a little about your background. In the book you explain how you studied history and philosophy in school and graduated in 2003. Where did you go?

NW: I went to Simon Fraser University here in British Columbia.

SSS: Any favorite periods of history or philosophers that stood out for you?

NW: The first philosophy class I took was in metaphysics and we studied the pre-Socratics, and that really got me fired up. And then later I took a course in existentialism and studied Nietzsche, Kierkegaard, and others and they really influenced me a lot. On the history side, I really loved ancient history as well as the Middle East which is such a hot point, always and to this day, in international affairs.

SSS: You also tell us in the book about how you worked for a while, during which time you also began to play online poker, and eventually were able to quit and play full-time in 2007. What sort of work did you do?

NW: I had a lot of different jobs working at Sears, in construction building houses and factories... basically any entry-level, menial crap job, I did it.

SSS: Turning to the book, one of the things I really like about Crushing the Microstakes and your approach to providing instruction to NL2 and NL5 players is the way you talk about playing these stakes without all of the qualifiers or any kind of embarrassment about taking these stakes seriously. I really appreciate that -- that idea that there's no shame in saying your playing the micros, and that you're wanting to talk seriously about how to do well at these limits.

NW: I think there are a lot of people out there who share that same view [that there's nothing wrong with taking the micros seriously] but who just don't say it. There's just so much ego in poker. I mean, I try never to look at it, but anybody who's ever been to my page on Poker Table Ratings, you can see the amount of hate because I'm playing the microstakes [laughs]. But I guess I just got over that at a certain point and recognized that a lot of people honestly do play these stakes.

SSS: And in truth, a lot of poker involves understanding yourself and being willing to look at yourself honestly. And hopefully we learn to do that and not feel that pressure to present ourselves as something other than what we are.

nathanwilliams2.jpgNW: I think it probably comes down to personality a lot as well. I don't gamble on anything else. I played a sports action ticket once in my life... I'm not really a gambler. I think some of those who criticize lower-stakes players are guys who can't play below NL25 because they like action a lot and believe it would be a waste of their time. And a lot of times they're going bust continually and maybe in some cases they'd be better off playing lower stakes and learning a bit more, but there are always going to be those gamblers who look down on the lower stakes and not understand why people play them.

SSS: So do you still put in a lot of volume at the micros?

NW: I'm trying my best. There's been so much with the book and my coaching requests have increased since the book came out, so actually the last two months are the first in a while that I haven't played 100,000 hands or more per month. I've also been experimenting with playing fewer tables, too. But yes, this year I've been playing NL2, NL5, and NL10.

SSS: Let me ask you just a couple of questions about items you touch on in the book. Early on you divide players at these stakes (NL2 and NL5) into three groups: the regs (which include nits and tight-aggressive players), the fish (which include maniacs, too), and a group you call "SLPs" for "semi-loose passives." Talk a little bit about that third group, which might be kind of unique to the microstakes or at least a group we find more often at these stakes.

NW: I often wonder if I made that term up or not. I noticed a lot of these guys who are not playing tight but not loose either, which is why I call them "semi-loose." They are playing too many hands. You should probably not be playing more than 20% of your hands at a full-ring table, and these guys are usually in the mid-20s or low-30s. And they'll have a low preflop raise percentage, too, say 8% or so, which usually indicates they are a passive player -- there's a big gap between their VP$IP [Voluntarily Put $ In Pot] percentage and PFR [Pre-Flop Raise] percentage.

SSS: Okay. So both "semi-loose" and "passive."

NW: Right. And usually a good rule of thumb in poker is that passive pre-flop equals passive post-flop. And, of course, aggressive pre-flop is aggressive post-flop. So I think a lot of these guys could come from live poker, where it is a little more limpy, or they are recreational players who might have read a couple of books and so aren't just in there playing like goofballs and blasting their money off. They are serious, but also play a lot for fun probably and generally do lose a little bit over time.

SSS: To address another of your groups, there's an idea you bring up at the end of the book that I like a lot -- "fish psychology." You put certain ideas under that heading to help describe what the fish are doing, and I think that's really helpful, actually, to try to recognize the reasons why the fish are doing what they are doing as a way of both identifying them as fish and figuring out how to play back at them.

NW: You're right, there is definitely a pattern to their play. If it were just pure chaos, it would be hard to make a game plan. Someone explained to me once about how a lot of people who play poker might be successful at other things, like in their business or other ventures in life -- they are not idiots, in other words -- but they just might not understand the correct play in each situation at the poker table. But yes, there are definitely thought processes going on, for sure.

SSS: As a coach, what would you say would be the biggest mistake you see your students making?

NW: I would probably say not betting enough for value with their good hands and overplaying marginal hands. Probably more so the latter, taking a hand like A-Q or something that you flop top pair with and firing three barrels against a nit who can only have a set, basically. That kind of thing -- playing way too big of a pot with a one-pair type of hand and not recognizing the type of player you're up against.

SSS: So the mistakes come more frequently after the flop.

NW: Right. A lot are playing a winning range of hands -- from 11% to 18% -- and so their pre-flop decisions are okay, but they become either too passive or too aggressive post-flop.

SSS: So what's next for you poker-wise or writing-wise?

NW: I'm not looking to be a full-time coach or anything, but my goal is to continue to do a mix of playing and coaching. I don't want to be the guy who never plays anymore. I'm not sure where my own poker career is going, but as I said I'm trying to get away from the mass-tabling approach and really focus on short-handed games and game selection. And I have other business interests outside of poker I want to focus on as well.

Much thanks to Nathan Williams for taking the time. Click here to find out how to pick up a copy of Crushing the Microstakes. You can also find more useful advice from Nathan regarding how to improve your win rate at these stakes on his blog and via his videos at DragTheBar.

Join Betfair Poker Now.

After nine hours and more than 300 hands of poker, the six-handed final table of the World Poker Tour Seminole Hard Rock Lucky Hearts Poker Open finally came to an end with Matt Juttelstad of Florida emerging as champion, earning...

He may not be a household name in any sense of the word but Rinat Bogdanov has earned a place amongst poker's elite. How and why? By winning a World Poker Tour Main Event, the WPT Venice Grand Prix to...

When it comes to no-limit hold'em strategy texts, the so-called "microstakes" -- i.e., those low buy-in tables where players can buy in for as little as a buck or two -- have been mostly neglected. With Crushing the Microstakes, poker...


Amazon Sports Center