Handicappers' Corner 
/ Phil Turner / 28 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Nick Williams: Trainer of Urbain de Sivola.
"The fact Urbain de Sivola has been declared a definite runner is also a bonus and, in our opinion, he should be trading at considerably shorter odds than he currently is..."
The Triumph Hurdle has thrown up more than its fair share of big-priced winners down the years and, with no superstar to have emerged from the latest crop of juveniles, jumps handicapper Phil Turner argues that it could pay to search for value again this time around.....
Indeed, there has been plenty of action amongst the leading home-trained juveniles during the past week or so, yet the Nick Williams-trained Urbain de Sivola (Timeform rating h145) remains our highest-rated four-year-old and still warrants plenty of respect for Friday's opener despite having had to settle for a dead-heat with the year-older Ifyouletmefinish (h135) in a novice at Taunton last week.
Although bookmakers and punters alike seemed underwhelmed initially by that performance, it must be stressed that Urbain de Sivola's Triumph Hurdle claims actually didn't take a dent in form terms - he was receiving just 2 lb from a useful older novice at Taunton, whilst his clear-cut defeat of Ranjaan (h144p) at Newbury back in the autumn could hardly have worked out better. The fact Urbain de Sivola has been declared a definite runner is also a bonus and, in our opinion, he should be trading at considerably shorter odds than he currently is.
Williams, of course, has yet to saddle a Cheltenham Festival winner, but he's had several near-misses so far (no less than seven placed runners from his small team) and he can take solace from the fact that the Triumph Hurdle saw training greats Martin Pipe and David Nicholson break their ducks at the meeting with Baron Blakeney (66/1 in 1981) and Solar Cloud (40/1 in 1985) respectively, the latter also providing jockey Peter Scudamore with his long-awaited first Festival win.
Ranjaan's trainer Paul Nicholls, of course, has enjoyed plenty more good days than near-misses at the Festival in recent years, including in the Triumph itself thanks to victories by Celestial Halo in 2008 and Zarkandar (also a first Festival win for Williams' former stable jockey Daryl Jacob) in 2011. Nicholls looks to have a strong team again this time around, with the likes of Pearl Swan (h142) and Hinterland (h139+) also towards the head of Timeform's juvenile ratings at the moment.
It is possible, however, that his useful Irish Flat recruit Dodging Bullets (h131p) could emerge as the stable's best juvenile prospect alongside Ranjaan. He certainly shaped with plenty of promise when runner-up in the Grade 2 Dovecote Novices' Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday, which was dominated by juveniles this year, with victory going to the more-experienced Grumeti (h140).
That was a third win from four starts over hurdles for Grumeti, falling with the race at his mercy on the other occasion, but he looks more exposed than most of the others towards the head of the Triumph Hurdle ante-post market and arguably lacks the stamina reserves often associated with winners of the Cheltenham race.
It is also possible that Grumeti isn't even the best four-year-old in his yard as Alan King, like Nicholls, has assembled another very strong team of juveniles and looks to have an even better prospect on his hands in the French import Balder Succes (h141p). Like some of the names already mentioned, Balder Succes has been mixing it successfully with older novices this winter and maintained his 100% record over hurdles with an impressive win in an Ascot novice recently.
The best Triumph trial in recent years, though, has been the Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and there was an up-to-scratch renewal of that Kempton race on Saturday, with Baby Mix (h143) bouncing back from last month's Cheltenham flop to lower the colours of Sadler's Risk (h133), whilst fellow Triumph hopefuls Une Artiste (h127) and Dildar (h115p) came up well short for differing reasons. Sadler's Risk is likely to be suited by the stiffer test of stamina on offer at Cheltenham but, even so, he's got a bit to find if he's to trouble Baby Mix there - or Urbain de Sivola for that matter!
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Timeform ratings are in fine form! Among 5 top-rated winners at Kempton on Saturday was Nacarat (BSP [5.58]). Click HERE for today's cards & ratings.
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