Follow The Money: Friend to do us a favour

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 12 April 2012 / Leave a Comment

What A Friend enjoys the Aintree track

"Wicklewood has yet to win a race in 32 starts. Backing runners with a record like that is surely not a wise investment, so he’s probably best avoided today."

Today's movers come from Newton Abbot, Aintree and Folkestone.

We start at Newton Abbot in the 14:20 opener, where Wicklewood has been on the drift all morning moving from [2.62] out to [3.5]. He showed big improvement when running second on his last start having his first run for the Tim Vaughan stable. Although he's only carrying 2lbs more for that effort and won't have to improve much to win this weak contest, he has yet to win a race in 32 starts. Backing runners with a record like that is surely not a wise investment, so he's probably best avoided today.

We move to Aintree for the 15:05 Grade 1 Betfred Bowl Chase. It's a high-quality renewal and former winner What A Friend has seen some support coming in from [12.5] in to [9.6]. Although Paul Nicholls' runner hasn't won since his victory here two years ago, he wasn't far off his best when third two starts back, just behind Burton Point who is second favourite for today's race. He was an early faller in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, but that may well prove an advantage allowing him to come here fresher. With Ruby Walsh back in the saddle, he can be expected to run big race at good each-way odds.

Finally we head to Folkestone for the 17:05, where Knightly Escapade been supported coming in to [3.05] form [3.64]. John Dunlop's runner made a slow start to his career last season, but finally proved his staying potential when winning his handicap debut at Goodwood over today's distance in October. He won with a bit in hand that day which suggested there was more improvement to come, so with top jockey Ryan Moore on board, a big run can be expected today.

Recommended Bets
Lay Wicklewood @ [3.5] 14:20 Newton Abbot
Back What A Friend @ [9.6] 15:05 Aintree
Back Knightly Escapade @ [3.05] 17:05 Folkestone

The Follow The Money crew talks us through their two backs and one lay for the day. As ever, they're based on price movements....

Two backs and one lay are as ever the offering of the day from the Follow The Money crew....

Good Afternoon, today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Redcar and Warwick......

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Home And Away: Favour Fortuna on high-stakes Cottbus trip

Daily Tipping / Jonno Turner / 19 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Fortuna Dusseldorf's strong away form has aided their promotion push

Fortuna Dusseldorf can pull clear of St Pauli and Paderborn with victory this evening and return to within two points of top spot, and Jonno Turner thinks they'll do just that...

It's a new week, and let's make it another profitable one. I'm well rested and ready to go as I didn't do a lot at the weekend. In fact, I spent most of it reading a Derren Brown book on the powers of thought. I managed to melt an ice cube yesterday just by staring at it. It took a little bit longer than expected, mind.

Derren once invited me to be a contestant on his "how to predict the lottery" show, but I was only there to make up the numbers.

We're starting the week with a trip to France and focussing on Ligue 2, as Le Mans welcome Reims to the MMArena looking to extend their impressive recent home form.

The hosts currently sit in the last of the relegation places, but are just one point from safety with two games in hand on their neighbours.

And Denis Zanko's side will be justifiably confident of climbing out of the mire given a recent run which has seen them lose just two of their last eight games.

Le Mans have made themselves hard to beat on their own patch, and have won three of their last five in front of their fans, keeping three clean sheets in the process.

Reims travel west in third place in Ligue 2, but in the midst of a miserable run which has seen them go five games without a win (losing three, drawing two).

Perhaps more worrying for manager Hubert Fournier is that the run forms part of a much bigger problem on their travels. The visitors have won just twice in 14 outings away from the Stade Auguste Delaune II.

The hosts have only lost to Reims once in seven encounters, and though Reims are at the right end of the table, a look at the form table tells a different story and I think that we could see an upset here this evening.

Bet 1: Le Mans (HOME) to win @ [2.48]

To Germany now, as Cottbus line up against third-placed Fortuna Dusseldorf at the Stadion der Freundschaft.

Cottbus occupy 11th place in the league, and have been patchy for large parts of the campaign. They go into this game having won just once in six games, and once in nine league outings on their own patch.

Boss Rudi Bommer will be desperate for his side to arrest that slump, especially as they are not by any means safe from relegation, just seven points separating them from the relegation playout place.

Fortuna Dusseldorf travel to Brandenburg looking for their third consecutive league win - and will be high on confidence having smashed eight goals in their last two matches.

In the bigger picture, the visitors have lost only one of their last 17 games on the road, an excellent return which you have to say makes them worthy promotion candidates.

It's clear that Norbert Meier's side know how to avoid defeat on their travels, but they must now convert those solid performances into wins as they aim to cross the finishing line in style, and with ten goals in their last five away games, Meier's side don't have any problem finding the net.

Dusseldorf have won the last two meetings between these two sides, and I think they'll make it three from three tonight.

Bet 2: Fortuna Dusseldorf (AWAY) to win @ [2.24]

The Inside Man picks four under/over 2.5 goals from this weekend's European offerings and he fancies an end-to-end affair when Stoke go to Liverpool...

Jonno Turner is taking to France and the Netherlands for his final picks of the week......

Jonno Turner is looking at two Europa League ties in which the visitors won the first leg, backing one to triumph again and the other to be defeated......

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European Tour Form Guide: Windy conditions in Lawrie's favour again

Golf Form Guide / Mike Norman / 06 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Will Paul Lawrie follow up last week’s win in Qatar with a Dubai Desert Classic win?

"Paul Lawrie's odds to win in Dubai might look a tad skinny at [38.0], but if the expected high winds materialise - as they did last week in Qatar - he could well prove the man to beat again."

After his fantastic performance in Qatar last week there's no reason why Form Guide leader Paul Lawrie can't win again says Mike Norman, especially if the wind blows.

Another excellent result was enjoyed by the Form Guide at last week's Qatar Masters. True, eventual winner Paul Lawrie wasn't one of our Players to Watch but he so nearly was.

But for a late dropped shot in Abu Dhabi the week before, Lawrie would have been higher up on the Form Guide ahead of the Qatar Masters and an automatic choice for that event. Still, of the 132 golfers assembled in Qatar, Lawrie - available to back at [60.0] pre-tournament - was fifth on our list and very much someone to consider.

On top of all that, last week's headline player Peter Hanson finished tied second meaning both the winner and second were highlighted on our Form Guide list prior to the Qatar Masters starting. Hanson was available to lay at [3.0] when holding a two-shot lead on Saturday.

This week sees the climax to the Desert Swing with the staging of the 23rd Dubai Desert Classic, an event that despite the absence of Tiger Woods (who usually plays here) still has an extremely strong look to it.

Tournament Finishing Positions

(Tournaments used: Qatar Masters, Abu Dhabi Championship, Volvo Golf Champions, Joburg Open, Africa Open, Dubai World Championship)

Paul Lawrie (4)... 31
Branden Grace (2)... 24
Peter Hanson (2)... 20
Louis Oosthuizen (3)... 20
Robert Rock (3)... 19
Retief Goosen (2)... 16.5
Jaco Van Zyl (2)... 13.5
Jason Day (1)... 13
Rory McIlroy (1)... 12
Alvaro Quiros (1)... 12
Charl Schwartzel (2) ... 12

*number in brackets after a player's name is the number of top-10 finishes achieved in qualifying period
**players in bold are scheduled to participate in the next tournament on tour

Not surprisingly for someone who has figures of 2-10-8-1 from his last four outings on the European Tour, Lawrie tops this week's guide. The Scot has been in fantastic form of late and clearly loves playing in the desert. His odds to win in Dubai might look a tad skinny at [38.0], but if the expected high winds materialise - as they did last week in Qatar - Lawrie could well prove the man to beat again.

As I've mentioned previously, the Players to Watch are automatic choices based on the top three players in the list who are participating in the upcoming event on Tour, and that means that Branden Grace ([100.0]) is still on our radar. However, like last week, I'm more confident of a decent showing from Peter Hanson ([29.0]) who, like Lawrie, remains in terrific form.

Players to watch: Paul Lawrie [38.0], Branden Grace [100.0], Peter Hanson [29.0]

The Cut-makers

Paul Lawrie... 19
Jaco Van Zyl... 17.5
Charl Schwartzel... 14.5
George Coetzee... 13.5
Retief Goosen... 12.5
Thomas Bjorn... 12
Luke Donald... 12
Ernie Els... 12
Jamie Elson... 12
Robert Karlsson... 12

With just one round played after the cut at the Qatar Masters Jaco Van Zyl couldn't make his way up the leaderboard as he has done in previous weeks. He remains a player to watch In-Play however, and so too does that man Lawrie. He is a proven winner, a former major champion no less, and showed at last year's end-of-season Dubai World Championship, and in Qatar last week when recording the joint lowest score of the final round, that he is very reliable in contention.

Keep an eye out also for George Coetzee. The general consensus is that he doesn't play well in contention, but as this mini In-Play guide shows, he hasn't performed too badly in recent weeks on a weekend. I know a few betting.betfair golf experts who rate the South African very highly.

Players to watch In-Play: Paul Lawrie, Jaco Van Zyl, George Coetzee

*You can read a full preview of this week's Dubai Desert Classic by reading The Punter's unmissable thoughts on the event tomorrow.

Ignore Peter Hanson's final round collapse in Abu Dhabi says Mike Norman, the Swede is still playing well and is one of this week's Form Guide's three suggested players....

The European Tour moves to UAE this week where a world class field has been assembled, but Mike Norman's Form Guides points us firmly in the direction of a likeable desert specialist....

Mike Norman's updated form guide has thrown up a trio of South African-born players to follow at this week's prestigious Volvo Golf Champions event....

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Follow The Money: Maarek Curraghs favour

Follow the Money / Follow The Money / 17 July 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will FTM followers be celebrating this afternoon?

"Maarek is showing some considerable support from [10.74] into [7.4]."

Today's movers come from the meetings at Newton Abbot and The Curragh.

We start at Newton Abbot in the 14:25 maiden hurdle over two miles and six furlongs where Saved By John is now trading at [2.10] from [2.56]. This looks a good opportunity for him to score on his debut for new connections. On his last run in Ireland he was travelling well until hitting the last hurdle. He recovered to finish strongly and Tim Vaughan does well with these ex-Irish horses.

The negative of the day comes in the Group One Irish Oaks at 15:45 at The Curragh where the favourite Wonder Of Wonders is drifting alarmingly out to [2.40] from [1.90]. She was beaten by Dancing Rain in the Epsom Oaks who is in opposition again once more along with the 1000 guineas winner Blue Bunting who didn't seem to handle the undulations at Epsom but still ran a good race. Also in opposition are the well supported Irish horses Banimpire and Laughing Lashes with whom conditions will suit today. All these factors suggest punters are willing to take on the favourite today at short odds.

We stay at The Curragh for the 16:50 five furlong handicap at 16:50. Maarek is showing some considerable support from [10.74] into [7.80]. David Nagle's horse was unlucky at this track on Derby day. His previous run was in a similar race over course and distance where he ran on well to win under similar conditions. He has a very good draw and the rain softened ground will suit this horse a lot better than most of the opposition.

Recommended Bets
Back Saved by John @ [2.10] in the 14:25 @ Newton Abbot
Lay Wonder Of Wonders @ [2.40] in the 15:45 @ The Curragh
Back Maarek @ [7.80] in the 16:50 @ The Curragh

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Newmarket, Ripon and Market Rasen....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from Newbury, Haydock and Nottingham....

Today's Follow The Money movers come from the meetings at Hamilton and Leicester......

Betfair website

Haye v Klitschko: Early odds favour the Ukrainian

Boxing Betting / Joe Dyer / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

David Haye's talking already

"Haye can be backed at [2.6] to win the bout."

Finally, the heavyweight division is giving us a fight we can't want to see - David Haye v Wladimir Klitschko

Forget the hype - this really is the fight the boxing world wants to see.

After months of wrangling, David Haye and Wladimir Klitschko have finally agreed to get it on in a winner takes all heavyweight showdown.

And the layers make the Ukrainian, who is bigger and has a longer reach, favourite to be the last man standing at around [1.56].

The English challenger has commenced the smack talk already, boasting of 'violently' knocking his opponent out.

Betfair's markets are still developing but you can currently back Haye at [2.6] to simply win the bout.

Finally, the heavyweight division is giving us a fight we can't want to see - David Haye v Wladimir Klitschko...

In most sports who is the undisputed champion is pretty clear to all and fixtures have to be kept to. Not so in boxing as David Haye is finding out, says Ralph Ellis....

These two can both throw a tasty punch so their Vegtas showdown may come down to an old-fashioned tear-up, says Alex Steedman...

Betfair website