The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 01 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Y E Yang – A former winner of the Honda and one of the Punter’s picks
“Successful here two years ago and in fair form, Y E Yang’s a really tough competitor and he’ll handle the windy conditions, should they materialise.”
Steve looks forward to this week's sole event...Can he find winner number five in 2011?
After Luke Donald became my fourth pre-event winner of the year last week, following successes with Louis Oosthuizen, Martin Kaymer and Alvaro Quiros, I was keen as mustard to get going with the studying this week but with no Race to Dubai event I've only had the Honda Classic on the US PGA Tour to concentrate on. This is the fifth year in-a-row that the PGA National Champion Course in Palm Beach Florida has been used and now I've got a feel for the place picking fancies wasn't difficult, but getting prices about them was and it's as much a case of who I haven't backed as who I have....
I really should have taken the [60.0] available about Robert Allenby on Sunday but something stopped me. Maybe it's the fact he hasn't won on US soil for ten years, or maybe it was his dreadful lag putting during the final round of the Northern Trust Open. Whatever it was, I can certainly live with not backing him at less than [40.0], even though he lives next door to the course, clearly loves it here and will cope admirably with the strong winds forecast.
Last week's hero, Luke Donald, won this tournament in 2006 before it moved venues, and he was 2nd here in '08, but he'll surely be drained and looks woefully short - though I certainly respect his chances. Lee Westwood and Graeme McDowell both fared well last year but look a little short and the resurgent V J Singh also played well here twelve months ago and looks to be back in the groove, but will his putting hold up if he gets a sniff of victory? Ian Poulter looks attractively priced and he's bound to be keen to get back in the saddle, after being cruelly denied at the death last week by Stewart Cink in round one of his Match Play title defence, but he's not played here since 2007 - when he failed to break 70, so he's been left out too. And of the bigger prices both Spencer Levin and Jimmy Walker are in fine fettle and were close to making the final draft but again - I felt they were a shade short and the wrong side of [100.0]. So that's who's out, now for who's in...
Successful here two years ago and in fair form, my first pick is Y E Yang. He reached the last eight of last week's Match Play after defying the odds three times - most impressively when dumping out Graeme McDowell. He missed the cut at the Northern Trust Open two weeks ago but made the top-10 again in Phoenix the week before. I wouldn't say he's any better than a fair price now but he's a really tough competitor and he'll handle the windy conditions, should they materialise.
Another player that won't mind it blowing is last year's runner-up Anthony Kim, though I recognise I'm taking a big gamble with his wellbeing. He either spat the dummy out against Nick Watney in the first round last week or he was still feeling unwell having withdrawn from the Northern Trust, apparently suffering from flu. There were signs at the Farmers Insurance Open that Kim could finally be over his wrist injury and if he has been poorly for the last few weeks, and if he's now back to full fitness, then [55.0] was a massive price for such a classy player with course form.
Given that we've seen nothing but triple-figure priced winners on the US PGA Tour this year, I'm more than happy to add a couple at big prices. Jason Dufner very nearly broke his duck just a few weeks ago in Phoenix when he produced a much improved in-contention effort - losing to Mark Wilson in a play-off. He appeared to take a little while to work through that disappointment but two weekend rounds in the 60's at Riviera may have done the trick. His 40th placed finish last year isn't too inspiring but the fact that he finished 13th in 2007 and 9th in '09 shows he has an aptitude for the venue. I felt he was worth taking a chance on at such a big price.
Paul Krishnamurty has reasoned the case for my final pick, Stephen Ames, in his Find Me A 100 Winner piece. I was fortunate enough to get a bit matched at [230.0] on the Canadian early on Monday but he's still a belting good price as he ticks an awful lot of boxes. He was one of my picks last year at just [80.0] before he'd even played here. He shot 64 in round two before going on to finish tied 17th 12 months ago and that experience can only help. I fancy he could go really, really well.
Selections:
Y E Yang @ [55.0]
Anthony Kim @ [55.0]
Jason Dufner @ [110.0]
Stephen Ames @ an average of [210.0]
I'll be back on Friday with the Live Golf Blog to survey the scene after round one.
Steve looks forward to this week's sole event...Can he find winner number five in 2011?...
Devastating Donald delivers as Steve finds success at the Matchplay.......
Steve looks forward to an entertaining day one at the Match Play but he's hardly brimming with confidence.......
No comments:
Post a Comment