The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 08 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Alvaro Quiros takes aim at the Dubai skyline during last year’s Desert Classic
“With everyone else concerning themselves with the world rankings shenanigans Alvaro may just sneak passed them all.”
Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai....
There isn't any doubt which event fills centre stage this week, with the world's top-three teeing it up in Dubai. All the action's being played out in the very friendly morning UK timeslot and we're in for a real treat at the Dubai Desert Classic but finding any value hasn't been easy.
Once Martin Kaymer had demolished the field in Abu Dhabi last month, for the third time in four years, he was always top of my list for this week, but not at this price. His record is superb - not quite Abu Dhabiesque but pretty sensational all the same. He showed an immediate liking for the gaff when he chased home Tiger Woods on his debut three years ago and he's followed that effort up with two 4th placed finishes. But I just have enough little niggles to let him go un-backed this week.
My main concern was the fact that he was always likely to be drawn alongside Lee Westwood and Tiger Woods, and he has. And to make it only slightly tougher they're playing in the afternoon on day one too, which is rarely the best side of the draw. The prospect of topping the world rankings hasn't appeared to have affected his game yet but then it's only just become a real issue but I have a nagging concern that all this new talk of him gazumping Westwood and topping the tree might just unsettle him.
One other issue is the 9th hole. It's a tricky par four with water in play and Martin just can't seem to master it. He played it in five over par last year! I took [12.5] twelve months ago on the back of a very similar set of form figures and just feel he's too short this time around at about half that price.
This is strong line-up to say the least and the aforementioned Woods and Westwood, as well as Rory McIlroy all have great course form, with Westwood the only one of the three not to have taken the title - though he really should have done so last year. Despite their strong course form, none make any appeal. Woods was woeful last time out at Torrey Pines, Westwood appears to have gone AWOL since topping the charts and Rory is sure to contend but will his putting and his bottle hold up? I have my doubts.
Another player that most certainly had a chance to win last year is my first selection, last week's nearly man - Alvaro Quiros.
In an interview last week on Sky, Alvaro confessed to having experienced only one occasion when he started to think of victory before it was sealed - at this event last year. When he found the green on the par five 13th on Sunday he was matched at a low of [1.58] but he three-putted and completely lost it after that. Some may say he did much the same thing last week in Qatar but I'm prepared to give him another chance.
He showed in no uncertain terms in Qatar that he can repeat form at certain venues and I expect him to contend again here, and with everyone else concerning themselves with the world rankings shenanigans he may just sneak passed them all.
Second up is last year's champ Miguel Angel Jimenez - I felt [40.0] was just too big for the likeable veteran. I'm completely happy to dismiss his effort at Doha last week. Although he's held the early lead there a couple of times before, he's never really fared too well there and he could well have suffered a reaction to his near miss the week before in Bahrain when he finished in a tie for 2nd. The big concern with Mig is putting. He got so frustrated at missing short ones in Bahrain that he threw his 'old faithful' at his bag and broke it during round three. Hopefully he's now found a suitable replacement that can get a few more to drop.
I've also backed Thonchai Jaidee, whose case is made in this week's 'Find Me A 100 Winner' piece and last but not least, another Spaniard in the shape of last week's third place finisher, Raphael Cabrera-Bello. He's a risky play, with only a missed cut to his name at this venue, but at [150.0] he's not going to do too much damage to the bank balance if he flops.
Selections:
Alvaro Quiros @ [21.0]
Miguel Angel-Jimenez @ [40.0]
Thongchai Jaidee @ [100.0]
Raphael Cabrera-Bello @ [150.0]
I've been through the runners at this week's other event, the A T & T Pebble Beach National, umpteen times and I'll be jiggered if I can find anyone really worth backing. I went round and round that many times I almost found myself pressing that little blue button next to Phil Mickelson's name. And I'm not entirely convinced I won't do yet before they tee off! We have to be careful here though; so far in 2011 the US Tour hasn't produced a double-figure priced winner, let alone a single-figure priced one. So far, it's the year of the shocks stateside.
Lefty was awful last week after starting so well and I was certain I'd be swerving him this week but then I looked at the field in detail and a play on him makes as much sense as anything else.
He's won this title three times and on the last such occasion, in 2007, it followed immediately after a dreadful missed cut in Phoenix. Mercurial at the best of times his record here is a real mixed bag. He's as liable to bolt up as he is to miss the cut but at a slightly bigger price he certainly makes more appeal than defending champ Dustin Johnson - who I simply don't trust in contention anymore. A case of sorts can be made for the next six or so in the betting but none of them grab me at the prices but I have managed to dig out a couple.
Brian Gay is in fair form, having finished in the top-20 in each of his last four spins. His record on the west coast is far from magnificent but with a best ever 16th place here last year, I felt he was just worth a small play at [55.0]. And I've a sneaky feeling about Matt Bettencourt this year, so he's been backed at [200.0].
Selections:
Brian Gay @ [55.0]
Matt Bettencourt @ [200.0]
I'll be back on Thursday to kick off the Live Blog.
Steve snubs "too short" Kaymer in favour of three amigos, as the race for the world number one slot grabs all the attention in Dubai.......
It's a frustrating week for the Punter, as a near miss in Qatar is followed by a winner in the States that's a year too late!...
I know it's Monday afternoon but we're not done yet! Can Mark Wilson hang on in Phoenix?...
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