Showing posts with label Stick. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Stick. Show all posts
January 11, 2014
February 26, 2012
WGC Matchplay Bets: Stick with under-rated Mark Wilson
World Match Play 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 26 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Home sweet home. Mark Wilson lives in the desert.
"Furthermore, its worth repeating the principal argument behind his pre-tournament selection. Wilson is a seriously under-rated player. Five wins on the PGA Tour is more than many more celebrated players will manage throughout their entire careers."
There's an all-British and an all-American semi-final to look forward to this afternoon before the final and third/fourth place play-off this evening. Lee Westwood is playing super golf at the moment but don't rule out the outsider of the four, Mark Wilson.
Any in-play traders hoping for a long night of twists and turns were disappointed yesterday, after four one-sided quarter-finals saw only one match head as far as the 16th tee. The players, however, may be thankful for such a short night's work, given they're now faced with a marathon Sunday to finish this long week. The first semi-final tees off at 14.05 GMT to be followed, after a quick break for some dinner, by the final and third-place consolation match.
The two semis are all-American and all-British affairs. First up, Hunter Mahan takes on Mark Wilson, with the latter carrying the hopes of both myself and Steve Rawlings. A pre-tournament selection at [160.0], Wilson has already delivered a 13 unit profit for the weekly Find Me a 100 Winner trading plan, which has rather saved my bacon in what has otherwise been a very difficult week. The second match is a truly mouthwatering affair, between arguably the world's best two players, Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy.
Although neither Steve or I have any need to get further involved, if I were starting from scratch Wilson would be the pick from here on value grounds. OK, he's rightly the outsider in such elite company, but there can be no quibbling with his performances. As I say before every matchplay tournament, this format is a specialised art, quite distinct from the weekly strokeplay that largely determines the world rankings and golfing hierachy. Wilson's steady game, making few mistakes and scrambling well when needed, has looked very well-suited to matchplay. He's won every match comfortably, by no margin less than 3 & 2. That isn't the form of a [6.6] outsider.
Furthermore, its worth repeating the principal argument behind his pre-tournament selection. Wilson is a seriously under-rated player. Five wins on the PGA Tour is more than many more celebrated players will manage throughout their entire careers. Considering he's already won this season, lives in the desert and landed a prestigious title in Arizona last year, those starting odds were an insult. On those occasions, his temperament has really impressed under pressure, which is not something that can be said of any of the other remaining trio. Only a fool would question the class of Westwood or McIlroy, but neither have a good conversion ratio over the past couple of years. Nor has Mahan, whose three PGA Tour wins came from well off the pace.
As for the second semi, while separating McIlroy and Westwood over a season would be difficult, there's no doubt which has been in better form this week. Rory produced easily his best performance so far against Sang-Moon Bae yesterday, shooting the equivalent of four under par compared to level par across the first three rounds. Westwood's golf over the last four days has been vastly superior, shooting a cumulative total of -16. If maintaining that level for another 24 hours, he'll be virtually unbeatable.
Recommended bets
2u Mark Wilson to win title @ [7.2]
5u Lee Westwood @ [1.91] (vs McIlroy)
This is one of the most difficult days of the golf calendar to try to predict but value is the name of the game and two short-priced superstars are worth opposing, says Paul Krishnamurty....
Devastating Donald delivers as Steve finds success at the Matchplay.......
It's been a marathon week and the reduction of the final to just 18 holes has been welcomed by Paul Krishnamurty. But who will come out on top and seal the deal?...
November 29, 2011
Timeform Radio Racing Tips: Stick with Scott at Ffos Las
Timeform Radio Tip / Will Hayler / 28 November 2011 / Leave a Comment 
How will Azione fare at Ffos Las today?
"Priors Gold has a touch of class and is up to defying top-weight in the two-mile handicap at Wolverhampton (17.20pm) despite a 6lb penalty for winning a maiden at this track on Friday."
Will Hayler fill the pundit's chair at Timeform Radio today and brings two horses to follow starting at Ffos Las...
With a fine strike-rate and a level-stakes profit for SP backers for the last three years, the Jeremy Scott stable is always one that punters should want to be with.
And odds-against ([2.08]) looks a fair price for Azione as she bids to follow up last week's Exeter win in the UC Better Handicap Hurdle (14.55pm) at Ffos Las this afternoon.
Making her debut for the stable, she soon skipped clear and was never in any danger throughout under Matt Griffiths, holding off the late rally of Water Garden by a length-and three-quarters without ever having to be quite asked for maximum effort.
Of course, there are reasons for fearing a 'bounce' today as she as she comes back to the track just eight days after that first start for more than seven months, while this contest is probably also a little stronger.
But off the same lowly handicap mark - more than a stone lower than her highest rating - and with the prevailing soft ground in her favour, there is no doubt that she deserves to be a hot favourite and the doubts about her are fairly factored into her price.
Priors Gold has a touch of class and is up to defying top-weight in the two-mile handicap at Wolverhampton (17.20pm) despite a 6lb penalty for winning a maiden at this track on Friday.
He has been expensive to follow as a hurdler but ideally wants to do everything on the bridle as he never looks that keen when pressure is applied.
Tom Queally gave him the ideal ride on Friday night, letting him cruise through the contest with only minimal urging before his obvious class told in the closing stages. Although this is hotter, if today's talented teenage rider can keep him similarly sweet for the first mile-and-a-half, he could prove simply far too good where it matters.
Cautious backers might like to consider leaving in a small stake-covering lay at an odds-on price, just in case Priors Gold decides not to exert himself fully in the finish.
Recommended Bets
Back Azione @ [2.08] in the 14:55 at Ffos Las
Back Priors Gold @ [2.88] in the 17:20 at Wolverhampton
Lorna Fowler is joined by Rory Delargy on a Sunday featuring action at Leicester and Carlisle in the UK, and in Ireland at Navan. There's little doubt that the Navan card is the highlight of the day, and it's there that Rory goes for his best bets....
Two bets from Jeremy Grayson ahead of the racing at Newbury this afternoon and both at big prices. Read on to see who today's man in the Timeform Radio hotseat sees as the best wagers of the day....
Betfair's Follow The Money for Friday November 25. Today's movers come the meetings at Doncaster and Musselburgh....
April 17, 2011
Timeform Irish 1-2-3 Tips: Stick with Ger for Reasons known at Navan
Tipping / Stuart Jones / 16 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Today's best bet goes on the Flat at Navan
"Reasons Unknown may have finished down the field all starts in maidens at 2 yrs but he fared easily best of those held up when third to Haziyna on handicap debut at Leopardstown and is capable of better again".
Big fields are the order of the day at both Gowran and Navan this Sunday, but we're still hopeful of finding some winners with our three selections.
Plenty of question marks hang over those with the best previous form in the minor event at Gowran due off at 15.40, so it may well be best to side with the unexposed and progressive novice Allee Garde. Willie Mullins' representative immediately created a good impression when switched to hurdles, winning a maiden at Down Royal (2½m) in facile style. He was far from discredited in the Spa Hurdle at Cheltenhan last time, remains open to improvement, and this is a much more realistic assignment.
See U Bob (16.15) and Torphichen are the two to concentrate on in the following minor chase and the form of the former's second to Hughies Grey at Navan last time makes him the one to side with. Paul Nolan's dual-winning hurdler bounced right back to his very best chase form when running this year's Ulster National winner to a short head in that Grade 2 event and this strong-travelling sort won't be inconvencienced by the slight drop in trip.
Ger Lyon's has started the season in excellent form and his Leopardstown eye catcher Reasons Unknown looks to have very strong claims of building on the promise of his reappearance in the 17.10 at Navan. Reasons Unknown may have finished down the field all starts in maidens at 2 yrs but he fared easily best of those held up when third to Haziyna on handicap debut at Leopardstown and is capable of better again.
Recommendations
back Allee Garde @ [6.4] in the 15.40 at Gowran
back See U Bob @ [4.5] in the 16.15 at Gowran
back Reasons Unknown @ [5.0] in the 17.10 at Navan
We're headed to Shakespeare country for today's placepot......
Three bets for Sunday from Timeform's US team......
Timeform run the rule over this two-and-a-half-mile handicap chase......
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)