League Two Betting: Back under-rated Torquay while you can

English Football League / Ian Lamont / 15 March 2012 / Leave a Comment

Goal threat. Lee Mansell has been on target for Torquay in recent times.

"It is an anomaly that Crawley have been odds-on to win – home or away - all through their seven game winless streak, but Torquay have 16 wins in 22 games and only three defeats in that run, yet are [2.44] against a home side who have picked up three points from three draws in 12 games since the turn of the year."

The layers are still offering good prices about a Torquay win this weekend, despite their remarkable record of 16 wins in 22 games. Ian Lamont talks us through this and the other best bets in League Two this weekend.

Burton [3.15] Torquay [2.42] Draw [3.35]

The temptation to back Torquay to win 1-0 is irresistible. For those less inclined to dip into the exact score market, the odds on a Gulls victory are too long. It is an anomaly that Crawley have been odds-on to win - home or away - all through their seven game winless streak, but Torquay have 16 wins in 22 games and only three defeats in that run, yet are [2.44] against a home side who have picked up three points from three draws in 12 games since the turn of the year.

That makes no sense, unless odds-makers are distrustful of the slim margin of those of those victories by Martin Ling's men - 10 of those wins have been 1-0. What is also likeable about Torquay's run is that they have a variety of goalscorers, although one has finally made it to double figures - Lee Mansell having scored three in two games. Take advantage while the layers still lack respect for Torquay. If you want a rare foray into the exact score market, 1-0 to the away team is second shortest at [8.4].

Back Torquay to win at Burton at [2.42]

Accrington [2.3] Northampton [3.3] Draw [3.5]

Accrington's chances of making the play-offs, I believe, left with John Coleman. New boss Paul Cook appears to be finding his feet with a third consecutive draw, at Southend, last weekend, but he still has not inspired a victory. Stanley seem to have found that never-say-die spirit that Coleman instilled, with Padraig Amond equalising in injury time for his second goal in three games. However, Northampton's urgency for points has lifted them out of the bottom two. Will they rest on their laurels or have they found some consistency? Even after they climbed out of the bottom two on Saturday with a 3-1 win over Aldershot, they won again at Dagenham on Tuesday - a fifth victory in seven games. Ade Akinfenwa now has six goals in as many games. Clearly Aidy Boothroyd has instilled some confidence that Cook has perhaps yet to find for the posts.

Play it cautious and lay Accrington at [2.3]

Bristol Rovers [1.96] AFC Wimbledon [4.0] draw [3.6]

I was told by a cautious Wimbledon fan this week that he views this encounter as "another six pointer". He clarified that he meant this was a relegation battle! To me, it is two sides battling on the road to mid-table nowhere.

Terry Brown's visitors are equidistant from the play-offs and relegation, ie in no danger of either. What worries my friend is the Dons' recent form - four defeats and three draws - before Saturday's 2-1 win over Dagenham and a 3-1 win over Bradford. Jack Midson has now surpassed Izale McLeod as League Two top scorer, with 18. The Pirates, who drew at Torquay last time, are unbeaten at home in the league in 2012. Five games, two wins, three 0-0 draws against the varying qualities of Oxford, Crawley and Macclesfield. They beat Bradford and Morecambe - and while the Dons are not as good or desperate as the other teams to have drawn at the Memorial Stadium, they are better than the Bantams and the Shrimps.

Back Bristol Rovers to draw with AFC Wimbledon at [4.0]

Hereford [3.55] Southend [2.16] Draw [3.55]

Hereford have drawn against some good and - at the time - in form sides at Edgar Street. While they have eight away draws, it will ultimately be their home form that decides their fate as they battle the drop. They won at Morecambe last weekend, a second win in three unbeaten games, which will give them confidence against the Shrimpers, whose form has stuttered since the turn of the year. This could be just the sort of place where Paul Sturrock's men slip up again. Five wins in 2012, from 14 games, means the [2.16] is far too short to justify and on that basis must be laid.

Lay Southend @ [2.16]

Swindon should win yet again after another three points in midweek but perhaps the even safer bet is Torquay to beat Bristol Rovers. Ian Lamont talks us through these and other good betting opportunities in League Two this weekend....

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Alan Dudman briefly discusses Gary Megson's sacking, as well as looking at the best bets from this weekend's League One action....

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WGC Matchplay Bets: Stick with under-rated Mark Wilson

World Match Play / Paul Krishnamurty / 26 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Home sweet home. Mark Wilson lives in the desert.

"Furthermore, its worth repeating the principal argument behind his pre-tournament selection. Wilson is a seriously under-rated player. Five wins on the PGA Tour is more than many more celebrated players will manage throughout their entire careers."

There's an all-British and an all-American semi-final to look forward to this afternoon before the final and third/fourth place play-off this evening. Lee Westwood is playing super golf at the moment but don't rule out the outsider of the four, Mark Wilson.

Any in-play traders hoping for a long night of twists and turns were disappointed yesterday, after four one-sided quarter-finals saw only one match head as far as the 16th tee. The players, however, may be thankful for such a short night's work, given they're now faced with a marathon Sunday to finish this long week. The first semi-final tees off at 14.05 GMT to be followed, after a quick break for some dinner, by the final and third-place consolation match.

The two semis are all-American and all-British affairs. First up, Hunter Mahan takes on Mark Wilson, with the latter carrying the hopes of both myself and Steve Rawlings. A pre-tournament selection at [160.0], Wilson has already delivered a 13 unit profit for the weekly Find Me a 100 Winner trading plan, which has rather saved my bacon in what has otherwise been a very difficult week. The second match is a truly mouthwatering affair, between arguably the world's best two players, Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy.

Although neither Steve or I have any need to get further involved, if I were starting from scratch Wilson would be the pick from here on value grounds. OK, he's rightly the outsider in such elite company, but there can be no quibbling with his performances. As I say before every matchplay tournament, this format is a specialised art, quite distinct from the weekly strokeplay that largely determines the world rankings and golfing hierachy. Wilson's steady game, making few mistakes and scrambling well when needed, has looked very well-suited to matchplay. He's won every match comfortably, by no margin less than 3 & 2. That isn't the form of a [6.6] outsider.

Furthermore, its worth repeating the principal argument behind his pre-tournament selection. Wilson is a seriously under-rated player. Five wins on the PGA Tour is more than many more celebrated players will manage throughout their entire careers. Considering he's already won this season, lives in the desert and landed a prestigious title in Arizona last year, those starting odds were an insult. On those occasions, his temperament has really impressed under pressure, which is not something that can be said of any of the other remaining trio. Only a fool would question the class of Westwood or McIlroy, but neither have a good conversion ratio over the past couple of years. Nor has Mahan, whose three PGA Tour wins came from well off the pace.

As for the second semi, while separating McIlroy and Westwood over a season would be difficult, there's no doubt which has been in better form this week. Rory produced easily his best performance so far against Sang-Moon Bae yesterday, shooting the equivalent of four under par compared to level par across the first three rounds. Westwood's golf over the last four days has been vastly superior, shooting a cumulative total of -16. If maintaining that level for another 24 hours, he'll be virtually unbeatable.

Recommended bets

2u Mark Wilson to win title @ [7.2]

5u Lee Westwood @ [1.91] (vs McIlroy)

This is one of the most difficult days of the golf calendar to try to predict but value is the name of the game and two short-priced superstars are worth opposing, says Paul Krishnamurty....

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US Open Update: Majors man Schwartzel remains under-rated

US Open / Paul Krishnamurty / 18 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Charl Schwartzel – Good value in both markets at halfway

“For my money, Rory needs to shoot par or better to take a virtually unassailable lead into Sunday.”

With Rory well clear, Paul Krishnamurty casts his eye over the Winner w/o McIlroy market...

We may all be golf fans, but yesterday's events at Congressional served to illustrate the very different perspectives between patriots, pundits and punters. Those in the first two groups seem united in their joy at Rory McIlroy's sensational, record-breaking performance, which leaves the Irishman six shots clear at halfway, nine ahead of third place. However, while we punters might have wished Rory well before the week started, we are now generally united in hoping he starts dropping shots, preferably several and soon. Indeed, Rory's double-bogey on his final hole yesterday came as quite a relief, keeping the event alive as a betting heat.

These major weekends are the highlights of the golf punting year, so it would be a terrible shame to see this great event reduced to a one-man show. That used to happen quite regularly when Tiger Woods was at his peak, but we've been spoilt in recent years, particularly in the US Open. For my money, Rory needs to shoot par or better to take a virtually unassailable lead into Sunday, which doesn't seem like a stiff target given the way he's played so far. Of course, many will remember his catastrophic collapse at Augusta and hit the lay button, but that doesn't interest me yet. I need to see that there's somebody close enough to put McIlroy under some pressure first, and that isn't the case yet.

So what do for a bet today? 2-balls will certainly be an option when announced later, and it may be a good time to start playing the 'Without McIlroy' market. Take out Rory and we'd have a typically thrilling weekend in store. Y E Yang leads the rest by three, but only four shots separate the next 41 players. As a former PGA champion, Yang is respected but the competition is fierce. I'm opening my book with three trades from off the pace.

Firstly as argued on Thursday, Charl Schwartzel remains under-estimated since his Masters triumph. Given that pedigree, odds of [34.0] from two shots behind third place is huge. With top-20 finishes in the last four majors, he clearly enjoys these gruelling weekends. Considering he's only two shots off third place overall, Schwartzel also may be worth a small interest to win the event at [250.0].

On the same level par total, John Senden may lack majors pedigree, but his ultra-reliable long-game should theoretically be ideal for a US Open. This is only Senden's third crack at this major, and after two missed cuts he appears to have learnt a few lessons. If as expected, conditions get harder over the weekend, this consistent Aussie could be in his element, running up pars while others fall away. That was the case when producing his previous best effort in a major, finishing fourth behind Tiger Woods in the 2007 PGA at Southern Hills.

Finally another Aussie. Jason Day was runner-up on his Masters debut, and from +1 at halfway, is no forlorn hope to repeat the achievement in his first US Open. Day has been making a habit of brilliant late rattles, coming from well behind to finish sixth at Sawgrass, and fifth last time out in the Byron Nelson. Improving all the time, and with four top-tens in his last five starts, expect to see Day there or thereabouts again over the weekend, at least for the minor honours.

Outright

0.5u Charl Schwartzel @ [240.0]

Betting without Rory McIlroy

2u Charl Schwartzel @ [36.0]
1u John Senden @ [65.0]
1u Jason Day @ [65.0]

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