World Match Play 
/ Paul Krishnamurty / 26 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Home sweet home. Mark Wilson lives in the desert.
"Furthermore, its worth repeating the principal argument behind his pre-tournament selection. Wilson is a seriously under-rated player. Five wins on the PGA Tour is more than many more celebrated players will manage throughout their entire careers."
There's an all-British and an all-American semi-final to look forward to this afternoon before the final and third/fourth place play-off this evening. Lee Westwood is playing super golf at the moment but don't rule out the outsider of the four, Mark Wilson.
Any in-play traders hoping for a long night of twists and turns were disappointed yesterday, after four one-sided quarter-finals saw only one match head as far as the 16th tee. The players, however, may be thankful for such a short night's work, given they're now faced with a marathon Sunday to finish this long week. The first semi-final tees off at 14.05 GMT to be followed, after a quick break for some dinner, by the final and third-place consolation match.
The two semis are all-American and all-British affairs. First up, Hunter Mahan takes on Mark Wilson, with the latter carrying the hopes of both myself and Steve Rawlings. A pre-tournament selection at [160.0], Wilson has already delivered a 13 unit profit for the weekly Find Me a 100 Winner trading plan, which has rather saved my bacon in what has otherwise been a very difficult week. The second match is a truly mouthwatering affair, between arguably the world's best two players, Lee Westwood and Rory McIlroy.
Although neither Steve or I have any need to get further involved, if I were starting from scratch Wilson would be the pick from here on value grounds. OK, he's rightly the outsider in such elite company, but there can be no quibbling with his performances. As I say before every matchplay tournament, this format is a specialised art, quite distinct from the weekly strokeplay that largely determines the world rankings and golfing hierachy. Wilson's steady game, making few mistakes and scrambling well when needed, has looked very well-suited to matchplay. He's won every match comfortably, by no margin less than 3 & 2. That isn't the form of a [6.6] outsider.
Furthermore, its worth repeating the principal argument behind his pre-tournament selection. Wilson is a seriously under-rated player. Five wins on the PGA Tour is more than many more celebrated players will manage throughout their entire careers. Considering he's already won this season, lives in the desert and landed a prestigious title in Arizona last year, those starting odds were an insult. On those occasions, his temperament has really impressed under pressure, which is not something that can be said of any of the other remaining trio. Only a fool would question the class of Westwood or McIlroy, but neither have a good conversion ratio over the past couple of years. Nor has Mahan, whose three PGA Tour wins came from well off the pace.
As for the second semi, while separating McIlroy and Westwood over a season would be difficult, there's no doubt which has been in better form this week. Rory produced easily his best performance so far against Sang-Moon Bae yesterday, shooting the equivalent of four under par compared to level par across the first three rounds. Westwood's golf over the last four days has been vastly superior, shooting a cumulative total of -16. If maintaining that level for another 24 hours, he'll be virtually unbeatable.
Recommended bets
2u Mark Wilson to win title @ [7.2]
5u Lee Westwood @ [1.91] (vs McIlroy)
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