Timeform Radio Tip 
/ Rory Delargy / 26 February 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Bally Legend (centre) could come good today for an out-of-form yard
"One swallow doesn’t make a summer, but I’m a fan of the yard, and believe that the progressive Bally Legend will provide value in a winnable race today."
Coughing in Paul Nicholls' yard, backing the horses of out-of-form trainers to come good and taking on one of the Queen's horses at odds-on. Rory Delargy explains all.
Gina Bryce and Rory Delargy are the Timeform Radio team who will take you through racing at Fontwell, Towcester and Naas on Sunday. The latter outlines his best bets.
There has been much talk of late about utilising trainer form as a guide to picking winners, highlighted by a brief lull in the fortunes of Paul Nicholls, before he revealed that he had some coughing in the yard. Those who waited for Nicholls to run up a sequence of losers before looking to lay his runners had a rude awakening when he had three winners from just four runners on Friday, however, and this angle clearly has its dangers too.
The horse I'm backing today comes from a yard which is also woefully out of form, but there are reasons for believing that such appearances can be deceptive. Caroline Keevil, who trains my fancy Bally Legend in the feature National Spirit Hurdle at Fontwell has had a torrid time in 2012, sending out 34 runners without a winner in January and February. This leaves her firmly on the "cold trainer" list, and most punters who pay heed to such stats will swerve her runners today. A closer look will show that she's most unlucky to be in such a position, and her novice chaser Civil Disobedience was in the process of springing a surprise when he fell at the second last at Warwick on Friday.
One swallow doesn't make a summer, but I'm a fan of the yard, and believe that the progressive Bally Legend will provide value in a winnable race today. His current price of [8.6] is more than fair, but he may drift further in the market.
He finished behind Third Intention at Taunton last time over 17f, but can reverse that form now stepped up to a trip which his breeding (out of stout stayer Bally Lira), while the way he was ridden there didn't see him to best advantage (best of those to race prominently in a strongly-run race). Third Intention is far from certain to stay much beyond 2m, while most of the others are either ungenuine (Battle Group, Afsoun), or badly out of form (Duke de Regniere, Topolski, Clerk's Choice).
I'm also keen to oppose The Queen's Barbers Shop in the hunter chase on Fontwell's card, as this tricky customer isn't the sort to take two quick races, but has to do just that in order to qualify for the Cheltenham Foxhunters in less than three weeks time. He had things all his own way when winning at Fakenham last time (runner-up Eleazar is a notoriously lazy sort who wasn't seen to best effect), and steps up in trip now, having looked a non-stayer in his pomp. He may appear to have little to beat, but both the mercurial Hills of Aran and prolific pointer Merry Vic (returning from a lengthy absence under the very promising George Gorman) are capable of giving him something to think about.
Nico de Boinville will hope that his classy mount can do things easily, as he's most definitely one to lay should he come off the bridle. Laying him pre-race is a fair bet, but the real value may be had by taking him on at very skinny prices in running - Hills of Aran in particular is capable of producing a strong burst from a hopeless position, as he showed at Haydock last weekend.
Recommended Bets:
Back Midnight Legend in the 15:40 Fontwell @ [8.6] or bigger (NAP)
Lay Barbers Shop in the 16:15 Fontwell @ [1.49] (NB)
Two bets courtesy of Terry Norman on a busy day of racing.......
Rory Delargy joins Tim Peters on Timeform Radio for racing at Lingfield, Warwick and Sandown, and he outlines his idea of the day's best bets below......
Timeform's Jumps Editor Dan Barber sticks to what he knows best - whilst also strongly recommending everyone pays close attention to Dubai expert Stephen Molyneux's Smartplays for bets on today's Meydan card - on a busy Thursday afternoon....
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