Showing posts with label Kickoffs. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kickoffs. Show all posts
January 11, 2014
April 13, 2013
Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Goals anticipated in most Saturday games
"The Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term."
Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.427/5
Jaymes Monte works through the Opta stats for this weekend's Premier League games and picks out his best bets...
Arsenal 1.261/4 v Norwich 14.5n/a: The Draw 6.86/1
A fortnight on from being priced at 1.261/4 to beat Reading on home soil, Arsenal are the same price to defeat Norwich at the Emirates as their preferable list of remaining fixtures becomes increasingly apparent.
Arsene Wenger's men are unbeaten in four Barclays Premier League home meetings with the Canaries (W2 D2), averaging four goals per game over the last three.
Only league leaders Manchester United have taken as many points from their last six Premier League games as Arsenal (both 15), while Norwich City are without a win in seven away league games (D2 L5). So the short odds on a home win are justifiable and not worth taking on.
Considering Arsenal's scoring record in this fixture and that the Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term, betting on Over in the goals markets is the way forward.
Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.427/5
Aston Villa 2.3211/8 v Fulham 3.55/2; The Draw 3.45n/a
Amazingly, Fulham have never won a Barclays Premier League game at Villa Park, mustering just four points from 33 available at the West Midlands venue. And given that the Villans come into this game on the back of three wins from their last four there's plenty of reason to back the hosts at 2.3211/8.
Fulham, however, are also in good form. But for that last-gasp winner from Papiss Cisse at St James' Park last week they'd be unbeaten in six and, regardless, have won three of their last five.
Instead of looking at the Match Odds I'd suggest a play on Over/Under 2.5 goals. The Cottagers have scored just five times in their 11 league visits to Villa Park and failed to score in three of their last four.
Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9210/11
Everton 1.454/9 v QPR 8.415/2; The Draw 5.04/1
Harry Redknapp billed last week's game against Wigan as a must-win for his side. Given that they didn't go on to pick up three points the conclusion must be that even those within the club now realise that they will be playing Championship football next season.
Everton, on the other hand, still have plenty to play for after taking a point from their game with Spurs last weekend, but welcome the Rs having won only won two of their 11 previous Barclays Premier League meetings.
The R's have scored 24 times in these 11 games against Everton; against no other side have they scored more than 17 in the Premier League. While Kevin Mirallas has netted in three of his last four league games and Loic Remy has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances. The statistics suggest that goals are on the agenda.
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5
Reading 7.613/2 v Liverpool 1.51/2; The Draw 4.84/1
Like Rangers, Reading's Premier League fate was all but confirmed last weekend, when losing 2-0 at home to Southampton. The Royals have now lost seven successive Premier League games, just one short of their top-flight record of eight straight defeats.
Add into the mix the Opta stat that Liverpool have won four of their previous five league meetings with the Royals and it's difficult to see Reading not equalling that unwanted record.
In nine previous clashes with the Reds in all competitions, Reading have never managed a clean sheet, while Nigel Adkins' inherited side have the worst defensive record in the top flight.
Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.6213/8
Southampton 1.9210/11 v West Ham 4.47/2; The Draw 3.814/5
West Ham are the only Premier League team to have lost every game they have fallen behind in (10 matches) away from home in 2012-13, so the first rule for betting on this game is that if Saints score first get on them In-Play.
Mauricio Pochettino's side have won their last three Premier League games with Jay Rodriguez scoring in each of them. The first time that he has scored in three successive top-flight games in his career.
Best Bet: Back Soton/Soton @ 3.39/4 in HT/FT
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March 8, 2013
Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Massive day in relegation dogfight
"West Brom have lost all three of their Barclays Premier League matches against the Swans"
Using Opta as his guide, Jaymes Monte has picked out his best stats-related bets from a weekend of huge games at the bottom of the Premier League table...
Norwich 2.526/4 v Southampton 3.185/40; The Draw 3.45n/a
Norwich's last-gasp 2-1 win over Everton a couple of weeks ago has afforded them a bit of breathing space in the increasingly compact battle to avoid relegation. It was Chris Hughton's men's only victory in 11 Premier League matches and their only league triumph this calendar year.
Southampton, meanwhile, were sucked back into the mire with defeat at home to QPR last weekend and what had looked like a promising start under Mauricio Pochettino now reads as one win in six since he controversially joined the club.
Both teams have scored in the last six meetings between Norwich and Southampton in the Barclays Premier League and those six games have seen a total of 27 goals, an average of 4.5 per game. Most significant, however, is the 1-1 draw between the teams earlier this season.
Best Bet: Back Both Teams to Score @ 1.75/7
QPR 2.3211/8 v Sunderland 3.55/2; The Draw 3.412/5
QPR pulled themselves back into contention for survival with the aforementioned 2-1 win over Southampton last weekend. But must put together a string of results in order to turn a glimmer of hope into something more tangible.
They'll need to overcome a harrowing statistic if they are to make it back-to-back Premier League wins for the first time since 1995, however. Sunderland are unbeaten in 11 league games against QPR, winning seven, drawing four and not losing to them since April 1991.
Regardless of the Black Cats' record against Rangers, I don't agree that a single win away to Southampton should result in Harry Redknapp's men being quite so short for this one.
Best Bet: Lay QPR to win @ 2.3211/8
Reading 2.486/4 v Aston Villa 3.185/40; The Draw 3.55/2
Another relegation six-pointer takes place at the Madejski this weekend where two teams separated by just one point and both entrenched in the relegation zone meet.
Reading have lost four of their five Barclays Premier League games against Aston Villa, including their meeting at Villa Park earlier this season.
Regardless, I wouldn't be confident siding with either side in the Match Odds here, so we'll plump for a bet in the goals market instead. Villa have conceded 17 goals in their last five Premier League away games, making the Over 2.5 an obvious selection at the odds.
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.9210/11
West Brom 2.47/5 v Swansea 3.259/4; The Draw 3.45n/a
Swansea showed no signs of a hangover from their League Cup win when they beat Newcastle 1-0 at the Liberty Stadium last week, and look good value to make it back-to-back league victories here.
West Brom have lost all three of their Barclays Premier League matches against the Swans, while Michael Laudrup's team have thrown away only two points from winning positions this season, fewer than any other side. So if they take the lead, then we can be confident that they'll hold out for the points.
Best Bet: Back Swansea (Draw No Bet) @ 2.3611/8
Newcastle 1.9310/11 v Stoke 4.84/1; The Draw 3.613/5
Stoke have lost six of their last eight league games and Newcastle have conceded exactly two goals in their last four Premier League home games. So the omens are good for Alan Pardew's men
Perhaps surprisingly, six of the seven Premier League games between Newcastle and Stoke have gone over 2.5 goals, as have each of the Tyneside club's last four home league games. Making odds-against prices for this one to follow suit particularly appealing.
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 2.26/5
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May 7, 2011
Premier League Betting: Saturday's 3pm Kick-offs
Premier League 
/ Mike Norman / 06 May 2011 / Leave a Comment 
FWA Player of the Year Scott Parker
"How West Ham are bottom of the table with the talent in their squad is a mystery; remember, the Football Writers Association Player of the Year Scott Parker is in their ranks."
Birmingham, Blackburn, West Ham and Wigan are all playing on Saturday afternoon as they each attempt to extricate themselves from relegation trouble. Mike Norman previews the action.
Aston Villa [1.84] v Wigan [5.2]; The Draw [3.8]
Six teams, three will go, three will survive, and to the enormous relief of Villa fans their side is no longer in the relegation mix. But Wigan most certainly are. The Latics continue to pick up excellent points when you least expect them to but surely they'll come away from Villa Park empty handed.
Roberto Martinez's men haven't defeated a club outside of the bottom six away from home since August last year, and they've only managed three away victories all season. Villa have steadily improved since the start of 2011 and ought to have too much flair for hard-working Wigan. Gerard Houllier's men have scored goals in 13 of their last 14 league games and I fancy they'll get a few this afternoon. Cover the 2-1 [9.0] and 3-1 [16.0] options in the Correct Score market as well as having a wager on Over 2.5 Goals at [1.92].
Bolton [1.82] v Sunderland [5.4]; The Draw [3.7]
This game may have an end-of-season feel to it but Bolton are most definitely the likeliest winners. In fact, I rate a Trotters victory today an excellent wager against a seriously out-of-form and injury-ravaged Sunderland side. The Black Cats have lost nine of their last 11 league fixtures and don't have a fit striker at the club!
Bolton's home form has been very impressive, winning five on the bounce in the league including that excellent victory that ended Arsenal's title hopes. They've been scoring plenty of goals too - two against Arsenal and Everton, three against West Ham and Aston Villa - so with Sunderland unlikely to get on the scoresheet themselves, the best bet might be the Yes option in the Bolton win to Nil market at [2.82].
Everton [2.86] v Man City [2.8]; The Draw [3.4]
After all the ifs and buts it's looking increasingly likely that Manchester City will indeed have a successful season; a very successful one if they can add a FA Cup victory to their near certain qualification for next season's Champions League. Roberto Mancini's men might not have it all their own way at Goodison Park however, so with little confidence a draw is the outcome I'm predicting here.
Everton have a particularly good record against City in recent years but you won't be surprised to learn that from their six victories in seven meetings, not one of them was achieved by scoring more than two goals. David Moyes' men rarely put the opposition to the sword so Under 2.5 Goals - available to back at [1.83] - rates my best bet of this game. In the Correct Score market, the 0-0 [11.0] and 1-1 [7.2] options are perhaps the best angles in.
Newcastle [1.97] v Birmingham [4.6]; The Draw [3.5]
Newcastle have been very in and out since the sale of Andy Carroll but they've managed to get enough points to avoid relegation, and that was undoubtedly their primary aim at the start of the season. Birmingham are one of the six clubs I believe are still in danger of going down, and I have a hunch that Alex McLeish's men will be in even more danger after this game.
Birmingham have conceded eight goals in their last two away games, but whilst this should be easier than facing Chelsea or Liverpool, they simply aren't as battle-hardened as they are at St Andrews. Newcastle have an excellent midfield, and that gives the wide players license to attack with regularity. It's hard to predict how this game will go exactly, so I'm more than happy just to take the [1.97] about a home victory.
West Ham [2.04] v Blackburn [4.1]; The Draw [3.7]
The game of the day at the bottom of the table and one that West Ham certainly can't afford to lose. How they are bottom of the table with the talent in their squad is a mystery; remember, the Football Writers Association Player of the Year Scott Parker is in their ranks. Blackburn grabbed a priceless victory last weekend, but that was their first win in 11 and they've taken just one point from the last 18 available on the road. I fancy a home win, but it won't be without a few nervous moments.
Five of West Ham's last six victories have occurred when the Hammers have scored three goals in a game; they can't grind out low-scoring wins because they simply don't defend well enough. Avram Grant's side have conceded 14 goals in their last five games, and that's one reason why I think Blackburn will get on the score sheet today. In what I'm expecting to be a very entertaining encounter, Over 3.5 Goals at [3.2] is my best bet of the game.
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Bolton win to Nil @ [2.82] v Sunderland
Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [1.92] in Aston Villa v Wigan
Back The Draw @ [3.4] in Everton v Man City
Back Newcastle @ [1.97] to beat Birmingham
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [3.2] in West Ham v Blackburn
The league title is going to Manchester if United can avoid defeat at home to Chelsea says Mike Norman. But can the Blues do the unthinkable and take the race right down to the wire?...
Blackpool are clinging on to their Premier League status by the skin of their teeth while Tottenham's season is beginning to peter out ......
Manchester United v Chelsea is once again the defining showdown of the Premier League season and a couple of key trends are well worth noting for Sunday's clash at Old Trafford, says Andrew Atherley....
April 22, 2011
Premier League Betting: Saturday's 3pm Kick-offs
Premier League / Mike Norman / 22 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Ian Holloway will have his Blackpool side fired up for the relegation battle ahead
"Another high-scoring encounter is on the cards then with Over 3.5 Goals being one possible wager at [2.8], but I’m very happy just to back Blackpool to win at [3.0]; and that’s not the heart ruling the head."
Another tense afternoon at the bottom of the table is in store says Mike Norman as both Blackpool and Sunderland look to arrest their recent slides. Best Bet: Back Blackpool to beat Newcastle at [3.0].
Aston Villa [1.9] v Stoke [4.7]; The Draw [3.8]
With just eight points separating the bottom 12 teams in the table no club occupying one of those positions will be resting on their laurels; a three or four game winless streak now and you're suddenly staring down the barrel of relegation going into the last few games of the season. One more win apiece for Villa and FA Cup final-bound Stoke should see them safe, and I fancy it will be the home team that gets it today.
Villa have generally been inconsistent all season, but they've won three of their last five (including their last two) whereas Stoke have been dire on the road in 2011, suffering seven consecutive league defeats away from home. Villa should win this one but I fancy it will be a low-scoring affair. Under 2.5 Goals is preferred then at [1.92], whilst in the Correct Score market, the 1-0 ([8.0]) and 2-0 ([11.0]) options appeal most.
Blackpool [3.0] v Newcastle [2.5]; The Draw [3.6]
Despite accumulating 40 points and having a positive goal difference Newcastle will feel that one more win is required to ensure Premier League safety. Blackpool are in a desperate position, and this surely is last chance saloon. Just one win in 13 games has seen them fall into the drop zone for the very first time but I doubt there's a football fan in the country who wouldn't want them to survive; me included.
And I actually fancy Ian Holloway's men to win this. They've scored in every one of their 16 homes games this season and I think they'll attack Newcastle at every opportunity. Another high-scoring encounter is on the cards then with Over 3.5 Goals being one possible wager at [2.8], but I'm very happy just to back the home side to win at [3.0]; and that's not the heart ruling the head.
Liverpool [1.5] v Birmingham [8.6]; The Draw [4.6]
Four points behind Tottenham (though they have played a game more), Liverpool certainly haven't given up on finishing fifth in the table just yet. The Reds have been in decent form of late and they ought to be able to beat a Birmingham side that continues to struggle on the road (just two wins all season).
Liverpool are unbeaten at Anfield in 2011 and they put three goals past both the Manchester outfits in their last two home games, so a comfortable victory can be expected here despite the last five fixtures between these two ending as a draw. Brum are hard-working and tenacious, but they're just not very good away from home. Liverpool/Liverpool is available to back at [2.24] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and a chance is also taken on the 3-0 option ([13.0]) in the Correct Score market.
Sunderland [2.14] v Wigan [4.1]; The Draw [3.4]
This is undoubtedly in my eyes Sunderland's biggest game of the season. Lose it - making it nine defeats in 10 games - and the Black Cats will be in deep relegation trouble with confidence at the football club in absolute tatters. Win it and Steve Bruce's side will suddenly have some breathing space between themselves and the bottom three. It's a tough game to call but Wigan have won some crucial games recently and they might just win this one.
It's also worth noting that Sunderland have a poor record at home to the Latics; they've won just one of the last seven and lost three of the last five. A wager on the away side might be the best bet in this game then as the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market also looks hard to call. For your information though, Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [2.14], whilst Under 2.5 Goals can be backed at [1.84].
Tottenham [1.6] v West Brom [6.6]; The Draw [4.2]
When Tottenham are at their free-flowing best they can be involved in some wonderful games of football - as they were on Wednesday night for example - but you do feel that an early goal is crucial to the pattern of their play. Spurs have failed to score early in three of their last five league games; two ended as dull 0-0 affairs, the other being a disappointing loss to Blackpool. West Brom lost for the first time under Roy Hodgson last week and it will be interesting to see how they respond.
I fancy Tottenham will get a first half goal in this one, thus enabling them to go on and get a few more. But I wouldn't rule out the Baggies scoring either, so the Yes option in the Both teams to Score market appeals at [1.8], whilst the Over 3.5 Goals option - available to back at [2.9] - is another hunch I have for this encounter.
Wolves [2.66] v Fulham [3.0]; The Draw [3.4]
Another huge relegation battle pits bottom of the table Wolves against a Fulham side that have failed to win on the road in 2011. Wanderers can throw in some horror performances at Molineux however - they suffered 0-3 home defeats either side of scoring nine goals in three games on home soil - and I can see this being an incredibly edgy-affair low on quality and goalmouth action.
Three of the last seven league fixtures between these two have ended goalless and I wouldn't put anyone off backing the 0-0 scoreline this time at odds of [10.0]. But I can see this game being won late on so I'm splitting my stakes between the Draw/Wolves ([6.4]) and Draw/Fulham ([7.8]) options in the Half Time/Full Time market.
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Blackpool @ [3.0] to beat Newcastle
Back Under 2.5 Goals @ [1.92] in Aston Villa v Stoke
Back Liverpool HT/Liverpool FT @ [2.24] v Birmingham
Back Wigan @ [4.1] to beat Sunderland
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [2.9] in Tottenham v West Brom
Back Draw HT/Wolves FT @ [6.4] & Draw HT/Fulham FT @ [7.8]
Manchester United are six points clear at the top of the Premier League with five to play. Surely they can't be caught, can they? Max Liu selects the best bets for Saturday's visit of Everton....
Spurs v Arsenal ended 3-3 after plenty of drama and excitement whilst Chelsea beat Birmingham at Stamford Bridge....
For all the rich talent of their attacking duo of Andy Carroll and Luis Suarez, it's in defence that Liverpool under Kenny Dalglish have improved. Here's how to benefit from this knowledge ahead of their weekend game, says Andrew Atherley....
April 1, 2011
Premier League Betting: Saturday's 3pm Kick-offs
Premier League / Mike Norman / 01 April 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Liverpool have kept 10 consecutive clean sheets against Saturday’s opponents West Brom
"Wigan and Tottenham have meet 12 times in recent seasons, with an average of 3.5 goals scored per game and eight of those games resulting in at least three goals being scored."
Mike Norman takes a look at Saturday afternoon's six non-televised games including Liverpool's attempt to keep up a remarkable record against West Brom. Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.08] in Wigan v Tottenham.
Birmingham [2.6] v Bolton [3.1]; The Draw [3.4]
It's quite incredible to think that after 30 games of an intense Premier League season, just three points separate eight teams at the bottom of the table. It means of course that the relegation battle is going right down to the wire, and Birmingham are bang in the thick of it.
Since winning the Carling Cup last month Alex McLeish's men have lost four out of five games, including a 2-3 home loss to Bolton in the FA Cup. It's hard to see where their next win is coming from but I do fancy they'll get a draw against the Trotters. Games between these two have been very entertaining recently; their last five encounters have produced an average of 3.6 goals per game. For that reason alone then I'm - rather optimistically - making Over 3.5 Goals ([4.2]) my only bet of this game.
Everton [1.91] v Aston Villa [4.7]; The Draw [3.7]
Everton's form has steadily improved as the season has gone on, so much so that David Moyes' men have won four of their last six league fixtures and climbed to eighth in the table. Villa, like most of their season, are out of form again which amazes me given the amount of talent they have within their squad. This has the potential to be a great game between two evenly matched sides, but Everton's home advantage and current form should just give them the edge.
Prior to Villa's 1-0 victory over out-of-form Everton last August, the previous six meetings between these two resulted in both sides finding the net; and that's exactly how I see this game going. The Yes option in the Both teams to Score market is available to back at [1.82] and is a confident selection, whilst in the Correct Score market, the 2-1 to Everton scoreline makes most appeal at [9.0].
Newcastle [2.08] v Wolves [4.1]; The Draw [3.5]
Newcastle have won just one of their last nine league fixtures but they continue to grind out the draws (five in that sequence). They have a slender cushion between them and the bottom eight clubs but they can ill-afford to go on a bad run at this stage of the season. I'm not sure they'll get back to winning ways against Wolves however; Mick McCarthy's men have won three and drawn two of their last six games and I fancy this game will end all square also.
The last three meetings between these two clubs have ended 1-1, Wolves have averaged exactly one goal per game in each of their last five away games, and Newcastle have scored exactly one goal in three of their last four home games. Do we need any more reasons then to back the 1-1 scoreline at [7.6] in the Correct Score market?
Stoke [6.0] v Chelsea [1.74]; The Draw [3.8]
Suddenly, almost from nowhere, Chelsea are back in with a shout of retaining their title but you get the feeling that they'll have to win at least eight of their remaining nine games to do so. An away trip to Manchester United later in the season won't be easy, and neither will this away trip to hard-to-beat Stoke. The Potters are unbeaten in five league games at the Britannia Stadium, but they do have a particularly poor record against Chelsea to overcome (seven consecutive defeats).
The Blues may have won three on the bounce in the league, but they haven't done it by playing spectacular football and they were far from impressive in their recent 0-0 home draw with Copenhagen in the Champions League. I sense this will be a dull low-scoring affair with the away side possibly pinching a narrow victory. Under 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.88], but I am prepared to take a chance on Under 1.5 Goals at [3.8].
West Brom [3.3] v Liverpool [2.46]; The Draw [3.4]
Roy Hodgson has had a decent start as Albion boss - four draws and a win from his five games in charge - but he will love nothing more than to record a victory over his former employers Liverpool. The Reds are in decent league form themselves, winning six of their last eight matches under new boss Kenny Dalglish, and because of their incredible record against the Baggies they have to be backed for victory today.
Amazingly, since 1997, Liverpool have recorded 10 straight victories against West Brom and on every occasion they kept a clean sheet; that's 28 goals scored and none conceded. The Yes option in the Liverpool Clean Sheet market is available to back at [3.1] this time, but perhaps the best bet is to back Liverpool Win to Nil at odds of [3.4].
Wigan [3.3] v Tottenham [2.48]; The Draw [3.4]
Out of all the clubs in trouble of being relegated I believe Wigan are the most likely to go down. The Latics don't seem capable of stringing a decent sequence of results together and they have some tough fixtures ahead of them, starting with Spurs on Saturday afternoon. Harry Redknapp's men need to start winning themselves if they are to qualify once more for next season's Champions League, but with Real Madrid to come on Tuesday the Tottenham boss might keep a few of his stars on the bench and hope that his fringe players can get the job done here.
I'm not at all confident about predicting the outcome of this match as much depends on what line-up Redknapp starts with, so my only bet will be Over 2.5 Goals at [2.08]. These two sides have meet 12 times in recent seasons, with an average of 3.5 goals scored per game and eight of those games resulting in at least three goals being scored.
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals @ [2.08] in Wigan v Tottenham
Back Over 3.5 Goals @ [4.2] in Birmingham v Bolton
Back Both teams to Score @ [1.82] in Everton v Aston Villa
Back 1-1 Correct Score @ [7.6] in Newcastle v Wolves
Back Under 1.5 Goals @ [3.8] in Stoke v Chelsea
Back Liverpool Win to Nil @ [3.4] v West Brom
*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 25 wins from 51 selections resulting in a profit of £78.80 (£10 stake/liability per selection)
Arsenal should have no problems getting back on the winning trail against Blackburn; a club they score regularly against says Mike Norman. Best Bet: Back Any Unquoted Correct Score at [3.9]....
Ratings gurus to offer opinions on leading players and managers...
United have the opportunity to crank up the pressure on the chasing pack as they visit Upton Park to take on West Ham......
February 25, 2011
Premier League Betting: Saturday's 3pm Kick-offs
Premier League / Mike Norman / 25 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Kevin Nolan and Cheik Tiote form part of Newcastle’s physically strong midfield
"Bolton have been atrocious away from home in the league recently, losing six on the bounce and scoring just two goals in that time."
Mike Norman has had six successful Best Bets in a row now and believes that Newcastle are the team that can give him his magnificent seventh this weekend. Best Bet: Back Newcastle at [2.18] to beat Bolton.
Aston Villa [1.81] v Blackburn [5.1]; The Draw [3.8]
Villa threatened to go on a good run when they won three consecutive games - including an FA Cup tie over today's opponents - at the end of January, but they have so far failed to win in the month of February which is slightly disappointing. Blackburn have lost seven of their last eight games away from home and like Villa, they have also failed to win a game this month. Villa are undoubtedly the better side in my opinion, so with home advantage this weekend Gerard Houllier's men should take all three points.
Games between these two have been very entertaining in recent years - in fact, the last six encounters at Villa Park have produced a staggering 28 goals, that's an average of 4.66 goals per game. Over 4.5 Goals is available to back at [6.4] if you expect that average to be maintained, but perhaps Over 2.5 Goals is the best bet of this game at [1.94]; eight of the last 13 meetings between these two have finished this way.
Everton [1.8] v Sunderland [5.4]; The Draw [3.8]
Everton showed terrific battling qualities to beat Chelsea in the FA Cup last week, and more importantly, they showed a great team spirit. But was that an act that merely painted over the cracks? I still believe that all is not well at Goodison Park and I wouldn't be surprised at all if 12 months from now David Moyes is no longer in charge. Everton's league form isn't great, but they are unbeaten on home soil in their last four games and they might just edge this one against a Sunderland side that have lost three on the bounce.
I'm not confident about selecting a wager in this game but the fact that Sunderland have an appalling record against the Toffees leads me to put up Everton/Everton at [2.94] in the Half Time/Full Time market. From the last 13 meetings, Everton have recorded 10 victories and three draws, and in most of those games they led the Black Cats at the interval.
Newcastle [2.18] v Bolton [4.0]; The Draw [3.4]
The loss of Andy Carroll doesn't appear to have affected Newcastle one bit. Remember, the striker was injured throughout January prior to his big-money move to Liverpool and since he's been unavailable the Magpies have lost just one of their eight league games. Bolton have been atrocious away from home in the league recently, losing six on the bounce and scoring just two goals in that time. True, the Trotters have won two FA Cup ties away from home in the last 10 days, but those games require a different mentality/approach and I very rarely use cup form as a guide to assessing a league match.
I fancy Newcastle to win this one, and at [2.18] to back in the Match Odds market I'm happy to make this my only bet of the game. With the impressive Cheik Tiote, Joey Barton and Kevin Nolan in midfield, and a relatively strong defence, I expect the home side to match Bolton physically and succumb Owen Coyle's men to a seventh consecutive league loss away from the Reebok Stadium.
Wigan [7.0] v Man Utd [1.63]; The Draw [4.0]
Manchester United have a good head-to-head record against most teams in England, but the one they have against Wigan is quite remarkable. The two clubs have met 12 times in their history (all since 2005), and United have won every single one of them, scoring 37 goals in the process and conceding just four! With Sir Alex Ferguson having quite a few injury worries this could be a tight affair, but I still expect United to come out on top.
The pitch at the DW Stadium isn't in great condition (when is it ever?) which makes the outcome - in terms of number of goals scored - very difficult to predict. I do however expect both Wayne Rooney and Dimitar Berbatov to line-up for the away side - Rooney has scored nine in 12 against the Latics; Berbatov has scored five in eight - and will back both these stars in the First Goalscorer market at around [5.0] and [5.5] respectively.
Wolves [1.91] v Blackpool [4.5]; The Draw [3.8]
Plucky Blackpool have suffered a huge blow by having inspirational midfielder Charlie Adam suspended for this game, and his absence alone could be the difference between winning and losing at Molineux. True, one man doesn't make a team, but in Adams' case he comes very close. The midfielder has scored seven league goals this season and has played a major role in many more. Wolves have beat the likes of Chelsea, Man Utd and Man City this season on home soil, and if they can reproduce anything like that form they should beat Ian Holloway's men.
Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.82] here and I believe that to be very generous. Perhaps the reason why that price isn't closer to [1.7] is because Wolves are in the equation, but the last seven games at Molineux have averaged exactly three goals per game, and Over 2.5 Goals paid out on five of those occasions.
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Newcastle at [2.18] to beat Bolton
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.94] in Aston Villa v Blackburn
Back Everton HT/Everton FT at [2.94] v Sunderland
Back Wayne Rooney at [5.0] and Dimitar Berbatov at [5.5] to (First Goalscorer) v Wigan
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.82] in Wolves v Blackpool
*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 23 wins from 46 selections resulting in a profit of £78.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)
Mike Norman has had six successful Best Bets in a row now and believes that Newcastle are the team that can give him his magnificent seventh this weekend. Best Bet: Back Newcastle at [2.18] to beat Bolton....
Not everybody is looking forward to spring... Andrew Clarke assesses the relegation markets and explains why a close look at the fixtures lists should inform your betting on battle to avoid the drop....
Mike Norman expects Tottenham to come crashing back down to earth against Blackpool and Arsenal to see off Stoke in this midweek's two Premier League games. Best Bet: Lay Tottenham at [1.9] v Blackpool....
February 5, 2011
Premier League Betting: Saturday's 3pm Kick-offs
Premier League / Mike Norman / 04 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
David Moyes looks like a man under pressure at Everton
"I was very surprised that Yakubu and Steven Pienaar were allowed/wanted to leave the club, and it has to be said that David Moyes has looked like a man on the brink in recent weeks."
Arsenal and Man City aim to keep their title hopes alive, and should do so says Mike Norman as he previews all Saturday's non-TV action. Best Bet: Back Man City HT/Man City FT at [2.24] v West Brom.
Aston Villa [2.0] v Fulham [4.3]; The Draw [3.6]
Both these clubs have been in decent form lately, though the key to this game is Villa having home advantage as Fulham have been pretty poor on the road for the best part of two years now. The Cottagers have won just one away game all season and it's easy to see why - they simply don't score enough goals (nine scored in 12 league games).
Because of the pace in Villa's side I fancy Darren Bent to be a real success at his new club. Two goals in his first three games is a more than adequate start and I wouldn't be surprised at all if he netted against Fulham. He will be available to back at around [5.5] and [2.3] respectively once the First Goalscorer and To Score markets materialise.
Everton [1.48] v Blackpool [8.0]; The Draw [4.8]
I get the feeling that all is not well at Everton. I was very surprised that Yakubu and Steven Pienaar were allowed/wanted to leave the club, and it has to be said that David Moyes has looked like a man on the brink in recent weeks. The Toffees should be too strong for an out-of-form Blackpool side, but the Goodison Park outfit have let home supporters down many times this season and I fancy that will be the case again.
We all know how entertaining games involving Blackpool have been this season so there'll be plenty of punters wanting to back Over 2.5 Goals at [1.66]. However I fancy this to be a cagey affair that could end up being low-scoring. Under 1.5 Goals is rather appealing at [5.5] then, but I'm more than happy to just lay Everton in the Match Odds market at [1.49].
Man City [1.46] v West Brom [9.4]; The Draw [4.7]
Just when you build Manchester City up as one of the best away teams in the country they go on a run of four games without a win on the road (league and FA Cup). They have won their last four - and scored 13 goals in the process - on home soil however so the balance may well have changed. Albion have lost five straight away games (the last four without scoring), and they could be in for a heavy loss in this encounter.
A total of 21 goals have been scored during Man City's last five home games, of which 12 of them came in the first half. Although not all of those goals went City's way, if there are to be any first half goals here (I'm sure there will be) then I fancy them to go to the home side. My best bet of this game then, and of the weekend, is Man City/Man City at [2.24] in the Half Time/Full Time market.
Newcastle [5.8] v Arsenal [1.69]; The Draw [4.1]
Despite the massive price tag I have a few Geordie friends who are extremely indignant at the sale of Andy Carroll. Not only do they think that owner Mike Ashley will pocket the cash, but they are now worried as to who will score goals. It didn't help then that Shola Ameobi broke his cheekbone in midweek, leaving Newcastle boss Alan Pardew with very few options in attack. Arsenal have a few injury worries of their own but they should still be good enough to come away from St James Park with all three points.
The Gunners' goals scored column for their last eight away games reads 3-3-2-0-4-2-2-3, the zero coming at Old Trafford where no team has triumphed this season. It's a bit of a toss-of-the-coin job then as to whether you back Under 2.5 Goals at [2.08] or Over 2.5 Goals at [1.92], but given that I don't think Newcastle will score then I prefer to back both the 0-2 ([9.0]) and 0-3 ([16.0]) options in the Correct Score market.
Tottenham [1.65] v Bolton [6.6]; The Draw [4.0]
Bolton needed a horrendous last minute mistake from Wolves in midweek to break their sequence of games without scoring, but it doesn't bode well that they've stopped creating chances on their own accord. Spurs haven't been at their brilliant best of late either, scoring no more than one goal in each of their last five league games and winning just two of them. Tottenham should win, but it could be a closely run affair containing few goals.
Just like in midweek when I couldn't believe the Under 2.5 Goals price in Bolton's game with Wolves, I'm similarly surprised to see that option available to back at [2.06] here. True, Tottenham can score at least three themselves if they are on form, but given their recent goalscoring record, and Bolton's, then I'm more than happy to back Unders.
Wigan [2.62] v Blackburn [3.0]; The Draw [3.4]
I'm not too sure about this game and prefer to stay well clear of it. Wigan are a poor side but they keep pinching points when you least expect them to (six draw in last 10 league games), whereas Blackburn are at about the same level as they were under Sam Allardyce and don't win on the road that often.
There really isn't a wager I'm confident in recommending, so going purely on head-to-head records between these two then the one possible bet has to be Over 2.5 Goals at [2.22]. The last nine meetings between Wigan and Rovers have averaged over three goals per game, with seven of those games resulting in three or more goals being scored. In fact there has never been a game between these two in their history (15 in all) that hasn't contained at least two goals.
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Man City HT/Man City FT at [2.24] v West Brom
Back Darren Bent at [5.5] (First Goalscorer) and at [2.3] (To Score) v Fulham
Lay Everton at [1.49] v Blackpool
Back 0-2 at [9.0] and 0-3 at [16.0] Correct Scores in Newcastle v Arsenal
Back Under 2.5 Goals at [2.06] in Tottenham v Bolton
Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.22] in Wigan v Blackburn
*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 19 wins from 42 selections resulting in a profit/loss of +£16.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)
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