West Ham: Carroll ban damage to outlast three games

"With six victories from 14 games required to hit 40 points and six of the top seven left to play, Sam Allardyce will be angling for at least seven points from the three games that Carroll will miss."

Michael Lintorn fears that the impact of Andy Carroll's suspension will be felt for far longer than its initial duration...

West Ham instantly recognised the carnage that a three-match ban for Andy Carroll would wreak on their Premier League survival bid, which is why the threat of legal action against the FA was leaked, but their appeal failed regardless.

The Irons are a bewilderingly large 3.7511/4 to go down despite this development and their current relegation zone position, and there are a number of reasons why the unjust omission of their record signing is an unaffordable disaster.

Most obvious is the fact that his performance before tangling with Chico Flores on matchday 24 was both his best since regaining fitness, dominating the Spaniard and Ashley Williams and laying on two brilliant assists, and his team's most impressive at home all season.

With Carroll on the pitch, the whole side is lifted, especially captain Kevin Nolan, as his brace against Swansea showed. The £15 million striker's four league appearances yielded seven points - including two wins from two against bottom-half foes - whereas 20 matches without him provided only 15.

The psychological boost of his return saved them from a slump that saw them beaten 5-0 by Nottingham Forest and 6-0 by Man City within four days; his removal could have the reverse effect.

Particularly damaging is the identity of the three fixtures that he will miss: Aston Villa away and Norwich and Southampton at home. With six victories from 14 games required to hit 40 points and six of the top seven left to play, Sam Allardyce will be angling for at least seven points from that trio.

They visited Villa Park a week after a much-needed home triumph over Swansea early last February and, even with Carroll available and Villa in dire form, fell to an abject 2-1 defeat, so Paul Lambert's men look an attractive bet at 2.1411/10 on Saturday.

The other serious concern for West Ham is that their Geordie hitman tends to take a while to find his groove after any absence. The Swansea clash was his first truly decisive display of 2013/14 at the fifth attempt, and there was a similar trend surrounding his two injury layoffs last term.

It isn't entirely a fault of Carroll's, but an acclimatisation issue for the whole team given how much they tailor their play to the 25-year-old's strengths when he is around. That re-acquaintance process won't be helped by a cranking up of the fixture difficulty level: his first game back is at Everton.

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Premier League 3pm Kick-Offs: Goals anticipated in most Saturday games

"The Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term."

Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.427/5

Jaymes Monte works through the Opta stats for this weekend's Premier League games and picks out his best bets...

Arsenal 1.261/4 v Norwich 14.5n/a: The Draw 6.86/1

A fortnight on from being priced at 1.261/4 to beat Reading on home soil, Arsenal are the same price to defeat Norwich at the Emirates as their preferable list of remaining fixtures becomes increasingly apparent.

Arsene Wenger's men are unbeaten in four Barclays Premier League home meetings with the Canaries (W2 D2), averaging four goals per game over the last three.

Only league leaders Manchester United have taken as many points from their last six Premier League games as Arsenal (both 15), while Norwich City are without a win in seven away league games (D2 L5). So the short odds on a home win are justifiable and not worth taking on.

Considering Arsenal's scoring record in this fixture and that the Emirates has seen more goals (59) than any other Premier League ground this term, betting on Over in the goals markets is the way forward.

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.427/5

Aston Villa 2.3211/8 v Fulham 3.55/2; The Draw 3.45n/a

Amazingly, Fulham have never won a Barclays Premier League game at Villa Park, mustering just four points from 33 available at the West Midlands venue. And given that the Villans come into this game on the back of three wins from their last four there's plenty of reason to back the hosts at 2.3211/8.

Fulham, however, are also in good form. But for that last-gasp winner from Papiss Cisse at St James' Park last week they'd be unbeaten in six and, regardless, have won three of their last five.

Instead of looking at the Match Odds I'd suggest a play on Over/Under 2.5 goals. The Cottagers have scored just five times in their 11 league visits to Villa Park and failed to score in three of their last four.

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 goals @ 1.9210/11

Everton 1.454/9 v QPR 8.415/2; The Draw 5.04/1

Harry Redknapp billed last week's game against Wigan as a must-win for his side. Given that they didn't go on to pick up three points the conclusion must be that even those within the club now realise that they will be playing Championship football next season.

Everton, on the other hand, still have plenty to play for after taking a point from their game with Spurs last weekend, but welcome the Rs having won only won two of their 11 previous Barclays Premier League meetings.

The R's have scored 24 times in these 11 games against Everton; against no other side have they scored more than 17 in the Premier League. While Kevin Mirallas has netted in three of his last four league games and Loic Remy has scored in four of his last five Premier League appearances. The statistics suggest that goals are on the agenda.

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ 1.84/5

Reading 7.613/2 v Liverpool 1.51/2; The Draw 4.84/1

Like Rangers, Reading's Premier League fate was all but confirmed last weekend, when losing 2-0 at home to Southampton. The Royals have now lost seven successive Premier League games, just one short of their top-flight record of eight straight defeats.

Add into the mix the Opta stat that Liverpool have won four of their previous five league meetings with the Royals and it's difficult to see Reading not equalling that unwanted record.

In nine previous clashes with the Reds in all competitions, Reading have never managed a clean sheet, while Nigel Adkins' inherited side have the worst defensive record in the top flight.

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 goals @ 2.6213/8

Southampton 1.9210/11 v West Ham 4.47/2; The Draw 3.814/5

West Ham are the only Premier League team to have lost every game they have fallen behind in (10 matches) away from home in 2012-13, so the first rule for betting on this game is that if Saints score first get on them In-Play.

Mauricio Pochettino's side have won their last three Premier League games with Jay Rodriguez scoring in each of them. The first time that he has scored in three successive top-flight games in his career.

Best Bet: Back Soton/Soton @ 3.39/4 in HT/FT

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Six Nations Betting: 5 classic games between Wales and England

Memories / Dan Fitch / 04 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

As Wales and England prepare for their Six Nations clash in Cardiff tonight, Dan Fitch looks back over some of the most memorable encounters between the two sides.

Tonight will see the 120th match between Wales and England. Of the 119 games played so far in this hugely competitive fixture, England lead in the all-time results by just one single victory.

Welsh hopes are boosted by the fact that they have home advantage tonight and have won 34 of the 57 meetings between the sides held in the principality. It promises to be a another exciting match, although it will have to go some way to match the best from the past. Here are five classic games between England and Wales.

Wales got off the perfect start to the Six Nations Championship of 2005, as they defeated England, after years of coming off second best in the fixture. England were winning by a point with just minutes remaining, before Gavin Henson struck a brilliant penalty to give the Welsh a long overdue victory.

Wales won the first World Cup encounter between the sides at the inaugural tournament of 1987, but England gained revenge in 2003.

It wasn't plain sailing though, as Wales scored more tries on the day, including this effort by Stephen Jones - considered to be one of the best tries ever scored at the World Cup.

In the centenary year for Welsh rugby, the trusty foot of England's Dusty Hare threatened to upset the home celebrations in Cardiff, but a try by Clive Davis helped Wales to clinch a narrow win.

England were rampant in this 2000 Six Nations encounter, in which they scored five tries against the Welsh in a one-sided victory. Yet it still couldn't quite make up for the pain of England's defeat against Wales from the previous year...

In the final game of the Five Nations Championship, England were leading by six points in injury time and heading for a Grand Slam and tournament title.

It was Scott Gibbs who put a spanner in the works when he evaded a number of tackles to score a try which put Wales right back in the game. Neil Jenkins then converted to give Wales victory by a single point and hand the championship to Scotland.

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Premier League Betting: Wednesday's non-TV games

Premier League / Mike Norman / 01 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Bolton’s on-loan capture Daniel Sturridge will inject pace into the Trotters attack

"So given that Bolton can’t score at the minute, and that Wolves don’t score many anyway, then I’m rather surprised to see the Under 2.5 Goals option available to back at [2.0]."

It's back to matters on the pitch after the events of Monday's transfer deadline. Mike Norman previews all of Wednesday's action. Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at [2.0] in Bolton v Wolves.

Birmingham [4.7] v Man City [1.9]; The Draw [3.8]

I thought Manchester City were extremely disappointing in the FA Cup at the weekend. Their 1-1 draw with League One side Notts County came on the back of a loss to Aston Villa in the league and it will be interesting to see if they can bounce back against Birmingham. The Citizens have scored more league goals on the road than they have a home however, and I will be surprised if they don't take all three points from this encounter.

Birmingham are fighting for their lives in the Premier League and they are not being helped by some poor form at St Andrews. They are four league games without a win on their own patch and they've averaged less than a goal a game there. For this reason I fancy City to win this one narrowly and will back the Yes option at [3.0] in the Man City Win to Nil market.

Blackburn [3.4] v Tottenham [2.4]; The Draw [3.4]

Blackburn have climbed to eighth in the league, temporarily silencing the Steve Kean critics (me included), but I'm still not convinced about them as a whole. All four of their league victories since December came against clubs in the bottom half of the table at the time they played, whereas their losses came against top-half clubs. Tottenham's league form has been a bit patchy of late, but I fancy them to get back on track here.

Spurs have won their last three meetings with Rovers and they've lost just once at Ewood Park in the last six years. Tottenham do have a host of injuries to deal with and they could be vulnerable at the back, but in a way that could force Harry Redknapp into selecting an extremely attack-minded side. I'm backing Over 2.5 Goals at [2.02] and a Spurs victory at [2.4].

Blackpool [2.44] v West Ham [3.2]; The Draw [3.5]

For me this is Blackpool's biggest game of the season by far. Ian Holloway's men have lost five of their last six league games and if they lose this one they'll not only fall closer to the relegation zone, but it will give West Ham a huge boost in their own fight for survival. And my gut feeling is that the Hammers will get something from this game, though I'll sit on the fence and predict a draw.

Every one of Blackpool's 10 home games this season has seen at least three goals scored, but half of those games contained one goal or less at the interval. So my advice here is an In-Play one, instead of backing Over 2.5 Goals at [1.76] from the outset, back that option at bigger odds at half time if one goal or less has been scored. If two goals or more have been scored at the interval then obviously it's a no bet, but you could always check out the odds for Over 3.5 or even Over 4.5 Goals.

Bolton [1.92] v Wolves [4.8]; The Draw [3.6]

What's happened to Bolton? On the brink of a top-six place at Christmas; but five games, four losses, and just one point later they're now in the bottom half of the table. Worryingly they've stopped playing well and don't appear to know where the goal is (they haven't scored in three games now, two of which were at home), and I believe Wolves will keep it tight at the back and avoid defeat.

So given that Bolton can't score at the minute, and that Wolves don't score many anyway, then I'm rather surprised to see the Under 2.5 Goals option available to back at [2.0]. True, the loan signing of Daniel Sturridge might inject some pace into the Trotters attack, but on current form - and the price - I simply have to back Under 2.5 Goals.

Liverpool [1.7] v Stoke [6.4]; The Draw [3.9]

Crazy. That's the one word I would use to describe events involving Liverpool Football Club in the last 24 hours. True, once Fernando Torres put in his transfer request the outcome surrounding the Spaniard was inevitable, but to pay what they did for Andy Carroll simply left me astounded. But I'm here to talk about Liverpool's game with Stoke, and in all honesty, I haven't got a clue how it will end up.

I can't predict what effect Torres' departure will have on Liverpool tonight, especially as Carroll is injured and can't play. Stoke are tough to beat at the best of times, so given that I'm not confident at all about a home victory then the sensible option is probably just to lay Liverpool at [1.72] in the Match Odds market.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Under 2.5 Goals at [2.0] in Bolton v Wolves
Back Man City Win to Nil at [3.0] v Birmingham
Back Tottenham at [2.4] to beat Blackburn
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Blackpool v West Ham if one goal or less scored at half time
Lay Liverpool at [1.72] v Stoke

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Premier League Betting: Tuesday's non-TV games

Premier League / Mike Norman / 31 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Chelsea go in search of a third consecutive league win on Tuesday night

"Arsenal/Arsenal is available to back at [2.28] in the Half Time/Full Time market, so given that Arsene Wenger’s side regularly score first half goals then this also looks a decent wager."

In the first of his midweek non-televised game previews, Mike Norman says that the big three clubs on show will all record victories. Best Bet: Back Arsenal, Man Utd and Chelsea in a Betfair Multiple at [3.4].

Arsenal [1.5] v Everton [8.6]; The Draw [4.5]

There are fifteen Premier League games to go for Arsenal in their quest to be crowned champions of England, and you get the feeling that they will have to win at least 12 as slip-ups at this stage of the season can be very costly. Their first obstacle comes in the shape of unpredictable Everton, but if the Gunners play as well as we know they can then they should take all three points.

It's been goals galore in this fixture in recent years with Arsenal scoring three (twice), four (twice), six and seven goals against Everton since 2004. I fancy we'll see goals again on Tuesday evening so Over 2.5 Goals at [1.88] looks a good opportunity to profit. Arsenal/Arsenal is available to back at [2.28] in the Half Time/Full Time market, so given that Arsene Wenger's side regularly score first half goals then this also looks a decent wager.

Manchester United [1.34] v Aston Villa [10.0]; The Draw [6.0]

Despite Aston Villa appearing to return to form it's difficult to look beyond yet another victory at Old Trafford for Manchester United. Sir Alex Ferguson's men have won 11 of their 12 league games on home soil this season, averaging almost three goals per game. Villa will take hope from their 1-0 victory here last year, but prior to that United had beaten Villa on 15 of the previous 16 occasions.

With Villa coming into a bit of form (three wins on the bounce) this should be an entertaining encounter with plenty of goalmouth action. I fancy both sides to be level at half time (The Draw is available to back at [2.9] in the Half Time market), possibly by a scoreline of 1-1 ([8.8]), before United run out winners towards the end. The Over 2.5 Goals option can be backed at [1.7], whilst in the Correct Score market, the 2-1 [9.4] and 3-1 [13.0] options make most appeal.

Sunderland [6.0] v Chelsea [1.72]; The Draw [4.0]

This is the acid test for Sunderland as to whether or not they are genuine top-six contenders. They thrashed Chelsea at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season you'll remember, and that arguably sparked The Blues' poor run of form. Sunderland remain in good form, but Chelsea appear to have turned the corner with those two league wins against Blackburn and Bolton respectively (without conceding a goal).

I'm not expecting this game to be a thriller so will definitely side with Under 2.5 Goals at [1.86]. But I fancy Chelsea to win this without conceding, therefore my best bet of this game is the Yes option at around [2.8] in the Chelsea Win to Nil market.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Arsenal, Man Utd & Chelsea in Betfair Multiple at [3.4]
Back Arsenal HT/Arsenal FT at [2.28] v Everton
Back 2-1 at [9.4] and 3-1 at [13.0] Correct Scores in Man Utd v Aston Villa
Back Chelsea Win to Nil at [2.8] v Sunderland

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FA Cup Betting: The pick of this weekend's non-TV games

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gus Poyet’s Brighton side are set to play out an entertaining encounter at the home of Watford

"The Hornets’ last five home games – in which they have won every one – have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet’s Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year."

Mike Norman takes a look at five of this weekend's FA Cup ties and fancies Watford and Brighton to share a bag full of goals. Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton.

Aston Villa [1.85] v Blackburn [4.9]; The Draw [3.8]

If Villa can stay relatively injury-free, and get lucky in the draw, then I fancy them to go a long way in this season's competition. First they have to get past Blackburn of course, but after two league wins in four days Gerard Houllier's men should be full of confidence. Darren Bent is cup-tied, but the Villa squad is full of attacking talent and I can see them getting past Rovers with relative ease.

Blackburn are performing much better than I thought they would under Steve Kean but their away form remains a concern; they've lost five of their last six, the last two without scoring a goal. The two bets I like in this game are Villa/Villa at [3.1] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and the 2-0 Correct Score - available to back at [11.0].

Birmingham [1.88] v Coventry [5.2]; The Draw [3.5]

With one Wembley appearance already secured it's difficult to envisage Alex McLeish instructing his Birmingham side to go all out to progress in this competition. Premier League safety has to be Birmingham's priority, so with some heavy legs in the squad after playing 120 minutes on Wednesday night, McLeish is likely to rest a few players for the visit of Coventry.

The home side should (and probably will) still be too strong for an out-of-form City side but at the odds I'm prepared to give the visitors a chance. It's pointless me recommending any bets involving a Coventry win as they'd be more out of hope than confidence, so at [1.89], a lay bet on Birmingham is my only wager in this game.

Bolton [1.73] v Wigan [5.5]; The Draw [4.0]

Bolton have gone on a really poor run of form but I don't think they are playing as bad as their results suggest - in fact against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea (at Stamford Bridge) they were arguably the better team. The worry is that they put in their worst performance of the season last time against Chelsea, but on this occasion I'm prepared to forgive them as their fourth round opponents Wigan are playing some awful football of their own.

If both sides really set out to win this game then we could be in for an entertaining encounter, however, I'm not sure that will be the case. Like Birmingham, Wigan's priority is Premier League survival and I have a feeling we'll see a few unfamiliar faces in their line-up. Under 2.5 Goals ([1.9]) is likely to be the outcome, though my best of this game is Bolton Win to Nil - available to back at [3.2].

Watford [1.92] v Brighton [4.4]; The Draw [3.8]

This promises to be one of the most entertaining of all fourth round fixtures - Championship play-off hopefuls Watford score for fun whilst Brighton also know how to attack and currently sit top of League One. Basically, every man and his dog are expecting goals in this game and I'll be surprised if anyone is left disappointed.

Predicting the outcome of the game is a hard one - my marginal preference would be for the home side - so it is probably best that we stick to the goals markets. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.84], but I'm going to make Over 3.5 Goals ([3.1]) my best bet of the weekend. The Hornets' last five home games - in which they have won every one - have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet's Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year.

West Ham [2.32] v Nottm Forest [3.7]; The Draw [3.4] (Playing Sunday)

The Premier League strugglers featured so far (Birmingham and Wigan) I've tipped to encounter problems in their respective fourth round ties, but in West Ham's case I have a small hunch that they'll do ok. Beating Forest - who have won seven of their last eight games - won't be an easy task however, but how many opportunities will you get to back a Premier League side at home to a Championship side at odds of [2.32]?

True, the Hammers are bottom of the Premier League for a reason, but their recent results (won two, drew two and lost two of their last six) suggests they are improving, albeit slowly. As I've said, Forest are in great form but I still think there's a big gulf between the top two divisions in English football. I fancy a few goals here and have no hesitation backing Over 2.5 Goals at [2.06], but my main bet in this game is simply to back a home win.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton
Back Aston Villa HT/Aston Villa FT at [3.1] v Blackburn
Lay Birmingham at [1.89] v Coventry
Back Bolton Win to Nil at [3.2] v Wigan
Back West Ham at [2.32] to beat Nottm Forest

*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 17 wins from 38 selections resulting in a profit/loss of +£2.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)

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FA Cup Betting: The pick of this weekend's non-TV games

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gus Poyet’s Brighton side are set to play out an entertaining encounter at the home of Watford

"The Hornets’ last five home games – in which they have won every one – have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet’s Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year."

Mike Norman takes a look at five of this weekend's FA Cup ties and fancies Watford and Brighton to share a bag full of goals. Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton.

Aston Villa [1.85] v Blackburn [4.9]; The Draw [3.8]

If Villa can stay relatively injury-free, and get lucky in the draw, then I fancy them to go a long way in this season's competition. First they have to get past Blackburn of course, but after two league wins in four days Gerard Houllier's men should be full of confidence. Darren Bent is cup-tied, but the Villa squad is full of attacking talent and I can see them getting past Rovers with relative ease.

Blackburn are performing much better than I thought they would under Steve Kean but their away form remains a concern; they've lost five of their last six, the last two without scoring a goal. The two bets I like in this game are Villa/Villa at [3.1] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and the 2-0 Correct Score - available to back at [11.0].

Birmingham [1.88] v Coventry [5.2]; The Draw [3.5]

With one Wembley appearance already secured it's difficult to envisage Alex McLeish instructing his Birmingham side to go all out to progress in this competition. Premier League safety has to be Birmingham's priority, so with some heavy legs in the squad after playing 120 minutes on Wednesday night, McLeish is likely to rest a few players for the visit of Coventry.

The home side should (and probably will) still be too strong for an out-of-form City side but at the odds I'm prepared to give the visitors a chance. It's pointless me recommending any bets involving a Coventry win as they'd be more out of hope than confidence, so at [1.89], a lay bet on Birmingham is my only wager in this game.

Bolton [1.73] v Wigan [5.5]; The Draw [4.0]

Bolton have gone on a really poor run of form but I don't think they are playing as bad as their results suggest - in fact against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea (at Stamford Bridge) they were arguably the better team. The worry is that they put in their worst performance of the season last time against Chelsea, but on this occasion I'm prepared to forgive them as their fourth round opponents Wigan are playing some awful football of their own.

If both sides really set out to win this game then we could be in for an entertaining encounter, however, I'm not sure that will be the case. Like Birmingham, Wigan's priority is Premier League survival and I have a feeling we'll see a few unfamiliar faces in their line-up. Under 2.5 Goals ([1.9]) is likely to be the outcome, though my best of this game is Bolton Win to Nil - available to back at [3.2].

Watford [1.92] v Brighton [4.4]; The Draw [3.8]

This promises to be one of the most entertaining of all fourth round fixtures - Championship play-off hopefuls Watford score for fun whilst Brighton also know how to attack and currently sit top of League One. Basically, every man and his dog are expecting goals in this game and I'll be surprised if anyone is left disappointed.

Predicting the outcome of the game is a hard one - my marginal preference would be for the home side - so it is probably best that we stick to the goals markets. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.84], but I'm going to make Over 3.5 Goals ([3.1]) my best bet of the weekend. The Hornets' last five home games - in which they have won every one - have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet's Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year.

West Ham [2.32] v Nottm Forest [3.7]; The Draw [3.4] (Playing Sunday)

The Premier League strugglers featured so far (Birmingham and Wigan) I've tipped to encounter problems in their respective fourth round ties, but in West Ham's case I have a small hunch that they'll do ok. Beating Forest - who have won seven of their last eight games - won't be an easy task however, but how many opportunities will you get to back a Premier League side at home to a Championship side at odds of [2.32]?

True, the Hammers are bottom of the Premier League for a reason, but their recent results (won two, drew two and lost two of their last six) suggests they are improving, albeit slowly. As I've said, Forest are in great form but I still think there's a big gulf between the top two divisions in English football. I fancy a few goals here and have no hesitation backing Over 2.5 Goals at [2.06], but my main bet in this game is simply to back a home win.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton
Back Aston Villa HT/Aston Villa FT at [3.1] v Blackburn
Lay Birmingham at [1.89] v Coventry
Back Bolton Win to Nil at [3.2] v Wigan
Back West Ham at [2.32] to beat Nottm Forest

*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 17 wins from 38 selections resulting in a profit/loss of +£2.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)

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