FA Cup 
/ Mike Norman / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Gus Poyet’s Brighton side are set to play out an entertaining encounter at the home of Watford
"The Hornets’ last five home games – in which they have won every one – have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet’s Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year."
Mike Norman takes a look at five of this weekend's FA Cup ties and fancies Watford and Brighton to share a bag full of goals. Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton.
Aston Villa [1.85] v Blackburn [4.9]; The Draw [3.8]
If Villa can stay relatively injury-free, and get lucky in the draw, then I fancy them to go a long way in this season's competition. First they have to get past Blackburn of course, but after two league wins in four days Gerard Houllier's men should be full of confidence. Darren Bent is cup-tied, but the Villa squad is full of attacking talent and I can see them getting past Rovers with relative ease.
Blackburn are performing much better than I thought they would under Steve Kean but their away form remains a concern; they've lost five of their last six, the last two without scoring a goal. The two bets I like in this game are Villa/Villa at [3.1] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and the 2-0 Correct Score - available to back at [11.0].
Birmingham [1.88] v Coventry [5.2]; The Draw [3.5]
With one Wembley appearance already secured it's difficult to envisage Alex McLeish instructing his Birmingham side to go all out to progress in this competition. Premier League safety has to be Birmingham's priority, so with some heavy legs in the squad after playing 120 minutes on Wednesday night, McLeish is likely to rest a few players for the visit of Coventry.
The home side should (and probably will) still be too strong for an out-of-form City side but at the odds I'm prepared to give the visitors a chance. It's pointless me recommending any bets involving a Coventry win as they'd be more out of hope than confidence, so at [1.89], a lay bet on Birmingham is my only wager in this game.
Bolton [1.73] v Wigan [5.5]; The Draw [4.0]
Bolton have gone on a really poor run of form but I don't think they are playing as bad as their results suggest - in fact against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea (at Stamford Bridge) they were arguably the better team. The worry is that they put in their worst performance of the season last time against Chelsea, but on this occasion I'm prepared to forgive them as their fourth round opponents Wigan are playing some awful football of their own.
If both sides really set out to win this game then we could be in for an entertaining encounter, however, I'm not sure that will be the case. Like Birmingham, Wigan's priority is Premier League survival and I have a feeling we'll see a few unfamiliar faces in their line-up. Under 2.5 Goals ([1.9]) is likely to be the outcome, though my best of this game is Bolton Win to Nil - available to back at [3.2].
Watford [1.92] v Brighton [4.4]; The Draw [3.8]
This promises to be one of the most entertaining of all fourth round fixtures - Championship play-off hopefuls Watford score for fun whilst Brighton also know how to attack and currently sit top of League One. Basically, every man and his dog are expecting goals in this game and I'll be surprised if anyone is left disappointed.
Predicting the outcome of the game is a hard one - my marginal preference would be for the home side - so it is probably best that we stick to the goals markets. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.84], but I'm going to make Over 3.5 Goals ([3.1]) my best bet of the weekend. The Hornets' last five home games - in which they have won every one - have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet's Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year.
West Ham [2.32] v Nottm Forest [3.7]; The Draw [3.4] (Playing Sunday)
The Premier League strugglers featured so far (Birmingham and Wigan) I've tipped to encounter problems in their respective fourth round ties, but in West Ham's case I have a small hunch that they'll do ok. Beating Forest - who have won seven of their last eight games - won't be an easy task however, but how many opportunities will you get to back a Premier League side at home to a Championship side at odds of [2.32]?
True, the Hammers are bottom of the Premier League for a reason, but their recent results (won two, drew two and lost two of their last six) suggests they are improving, albeit slowly. As I've said, Forest are in great form but I still think there's a big gulf between the top two divisions in English football. I fancy a few goals here and have no hesitation backing Over 2.5 Goals at [2.06], but my main bet in this game is simply to back a home win.
Recommended Bets
Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton
Back Aston Villa HT/Aston Villa FT at [3.1] v Blackburn
Lay Birmingham at [1.89] v Coventry
Back Bolton Win to Nil at [3.2] v Wigan
Back West Ham at [2.32] to beat Nottm Forest
*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 17 wins from 38 selections resulting in a profit/loss of +£2.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)
No comments:
Post a Comment