Two and a half goals column: The Weekend's best bets

Two And A Half Goals / The Inside Man / 03 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Never mind the new life, we'll just settle for over 2.5 goals in today's match thank you very much

"This makes top of the table Rotherham the perfect visitors to secure the goals we need. They always pack plenty of goals for their travels, with 10 of their last 12 away games going over the two and a half mark."

The Inside Man turns his attentions to English and Scottish domestic football over the weekend in search of the best bets in the ever-popular over/under 2.5 goals markets on Betfair.

SWINDON v ROTHERHAM

Reality is biting for Paulo Di Canio after three months at Swindon. Five games in and his side lie near the foot of League Two with just one victory. Even at this stage, the Italian's first foray into club management looks in danger of being derailed.

The reality is that Swindon's only win came against one of the few teams below them, Crewe. Consecutive 1-0 away losses suggest a cautious approach on the road. Swindon's game-plan at home though has been much more adventurous with both matches going over the two and a half goals mark. With the pressure growing to secure a 2nd win, expect that search for goals to become ever more ambitious.

This makes top of the table Rotherham the perfect visitors to secure the goals we need. They always pack plenty of goals for their travels, with 10 of their last 12 away games going over the two and a half mark. Expect both sides to be going for goals, with Swindon needing them and Rotherham expecting them.

Recommended Bet:

Back over 2.5 goals @ [1.83]

MORECAMBE v BRADFORD

Staying in League Two, we can expect a much tighter encounter when Morecambe host Bradford.

Morecambe manager Jim Bentley was appointed in May and has used the off-season to concentrate on improving his side's defence, with immediate results. Last season the Shrimps achieved eight clean sheets in their entire campaign, yet they've already managed three shut-outs and conceded just two goals in their opening five games of this season.

Bentley made it clear how his team will approach their games with this recent statement - "It's always nice when you score but the kick I used to get as a defender was when you kept clean sheets."

Meanwhile, don't expect a gung-ho approach from visitors Bradford. New manager Phil Parkinson is preparing for just his first game in charge, so expect an approach of extreme caution away to the side sitting 2nd in the league. The Bradford defence has conceded just twice on the road this season and has shown it has the mettle to keep this one tight as well.

Recommended Bet:

Back under 2.5 goals @ [1.91]

SUNDAY

HAYES & YEADING v TAMWORTH

Sometimes things can be as obvious as they seem and it seems that when these sides meet there are lots of goals.

Last season, their two encounters produced a total of eight goals, with Hayes edging victory 3-2 and 2-1. That should give Hayes every confidence of repeating the feat, especially when considering their unbeaten home record so far this season.

Hayes's last home game, against Luton, was a real thriller that produced four first half goals. Expect them to again be looking for an early breakthrough, against a team they have a knack of scoring against.

Tamworth's defence has shown signs of loosening as of late and this forced the team to show real character last week to fight back from two goals down and salvage a draw against Telford. There have been first half goals in all their away games this season, which should be enough to light the blue touch paper for this encounter and ensure us plenty of goal action. Let the fireworks begin!

Recommended Bet:

Back over 2.5 goals @ [2.04]

HAMILTON ACADEMICAL v GREENOCK MORTON

The top two sides in Scottish Division One meet in the Challenge Cup.

Cup ties, the place where dreams come true and the impossible becomes reality, complete with Hollywood ending. Yes, very, very occasionally. More often that not though, what we get is two teams slogging it out with plenty of blood and guts but very little quality.

Hamilton will go on the attack but will they be able to break down a Morton side whose defence has been the key to their strong start to the season? All three of their away games have gone under two and a half goals this season. Two clean sheets on the road out of three shows their stubbornness. Having reached Round Five of the Scottish Cup last year, Morton will be looking for another impressive cup run and will play to their strengths to achieve that.

With rain and wind forecast, expect a good old-fashioned mud-bath cup-match. High on mud and strong challenges but short on goal chances.

Recommended Bet:

Back under 2.5 goals @ [1.89]

Neil Harvey talks us through four European games where backing either Under or Over 2.5 Goals looks an appealing option....

Betfair website

FA Cup Betting: The pick of this weekend's non-TV games

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gus Poyet’s Brighton side are set to play out an entertaining encounter at the home of Watford

"The Hornets’ last five home games – in which they have won every one – have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet’s Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year."

Mike Norman takes a look at five of this weekend's FA Cup ties and fancies Watford and Brighton to share a bag full of goals. Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton.

Aston Villa [1.85] v Blackburn [4.9]; The Draw [3.8]

If Villa can stay relatively injury-free, and get lucky in the draw, then I fancy them to go a long way in this season's competition. First they have to get past Blackburn of course, but after two league wins in four days Gerard Houllier's men should be full of confidence. Darren Bent is cup-tied, but the Villa squad is full of attacking talent and I can see them getting past Rovers with relative ease.

Blackburn are performing much better than I thought they would under Steve Kean but their away form remains a concern; they've lost five of their last six, the last two without scoring a goal. The two bets I like in this game are Villa/Villa at [3.1] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and the 2-0 Correct Score - available to back at [11.0].

Birmingham [1.88] v Coventry [5.2]; The Draw [3.5]

With one Wembley appearance already secured it's difficult to envisage Alex McLeish instructing his Birmingham side to go all out to progress in this competition. Premier League safety has to be Birmingham's priority, so with some heavy legs in the squad after playing 120 minutes on Wednesday night, McLeish is likely to rest a few players for the visit of Coventry.

The home side should (and probably will) still be too strong for an out-of-form City side but at the odds I'm prepared to give the visitors a chance. It's pointless me recommending any bets involving a Coventry win as they'd be more out of hope than confidence, so at [1.89], a lay bet on Birmingham is my only wager in this game.

Bolton [1.73] v Wigan [5.5]; The Draw [4.0]

Bolton have gone on a really poor run of form but I don't think they are playing as bad as their results suggest - in fact against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea (at Stamford Bridge) they were arguably the better team. The worry is that they put in their worst performance of the season last time against Chelsea, but on this occasion I'm prepared to forgive them as their fourth round opponents Wigan are playing some awful football of their own.

If both sides really set out to win this game then we could be in for an entertaining encounter, however, I'm not sure that will be the case. Like Birmingham, Wigan's priority is Premier League survival and I have a feeling we'll see a few unfamiliar faces in their line-up. Under 2.5 Goals ([1.9]) is likely to be the outcome, though my best of this game is Bolton Win to Nil - available to back at [3.2].

Watford [1.92] v Brighton [4.4]; The Draw [3.8]

This promises to be one of the most entertaining of all fourth round fixtures - Championship play-off hopefuls Watford score for fun whilst Brighton also know how to attack and currently sit top of League One. Basically, every man and his dog are expecting goals in this game and I'll be surprised if anyone is left disappointed.

Predicting the outcome of the game is a hard one - my marginal preference would be for the home side - so it is probably best that we stick to the goals markets. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.84], but I'm going to make Over 3.5 Goals ([3.1]) my best bet of the weekend. The Hornets' last five home games - in which they have won every one - have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet's Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year.

West Ham [2.32] v Nottm Forest [3.7]; The Draw [3.4] (Playing Sunday)

The Premier League strugglers featured so far (Birmingham and Wigan) I've tipped to encounter problems in their respective fourth round ties, but in West Ham's case I have a small hunch that they'll do ok. Beating Forest - who have won seven of their last eight games - won't be an easy task however, but how many opportunities will you get to back a Premier League side at home to a Championship side at odds of [2.32]?

True, the Hammers are bottom of the Premier League for a reason, but their recent results (won two, drew two and lost two of their last six) suggests they are improving, albeit slowly. As I've said, Forest are in great form but I still think there's a big gulf between the top two divisions in English football. I fancy a few goals here and have no hesitation backing Over 2.5 Goals at [2.06], but my main bet in this game is simply to back a home win.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton
Back Aston Villa HT/Aston Villa FT at [3.1] v Blackburn
Lay Birmingham at [1.89] v Coventry
Back Bolton Win to Nil at [3.2] v Wigan
Back West Ham at [2.32] to beat Nottm Forest

*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 17 wins from 38 selections resulting in a profit/loss of +£2.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)

View the original article here

FA Cup Betting: The pick of this weekend's non-TV games

FA Cup / Mike Norman / 28 January 2011 / Leave a Comment

Gus Poyet’s Brighton side are set to play out an entertaining encounter at the home of Watford

"The Hornets’ last five home games – in which they have won every one – have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet’s Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year."

Mike Norman takes a look at five of this weekend's FA Cup ties and fancies Watford and Brighton to share a bag full of goals. Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton.

Aston Villa [1.85] v Blackburn [4.9]; The Draw [3.8]

If Villa can stay relatively injury-free, and get lucky in the draw, then I fancy them to go a long way in this season's competition. First they have to get past Blackburn of course, but after two league wins in four days Gerard Houllier's men should be full of confidence. Darren Bent is cup-tied, but the Villa squad is full of attacking talent and I can see them getting past Rovers with relative ease.

Blackburn are performing much better than I thought they would under Steve Kean but their away form remains a concern; they've lost five of their last six, the last two without scoring a goal. The two bets I like in this game are Villa/Villa at [3.1] in the Half Time/Full Time market, and the 2-0 Correct Score - available to back at [11.0].

Birmingham [1.88] v Coventry [5.2]; The Draw [3.5]

With one Wembley appearance already secured it's difficult to envisage Alex McLeish instructing his Birmingham side to go all out to progress in this competition. Premier League safety has to be Birmingham's priority, so with some heavy legs in the squad after playing 120 minutes on Wednesday night, McLeish is likely to rest a few players for the visit of Coventry.

The home side should (and probably will) still be too strong for an out-of-form City side but at the odds I'm prepared to give the visitors a chance. It's pointless me recommending any bets involving a Coventry win as they'd be more out of hope than confidence, so at [1.89], a lay bet on Birmingham is my only wager in this game.

Bolton [1.73] v Wigan [5.5]; The Draw [4.0]

Bolton have gone on a really poor run of form but I don't think they are playing as bad as their results suggest - in fact against Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea (at Stamford Bridge) they were arguably the better team. The worry is that they put in their worst performance of the season last time against Chelsea, but on this occasion I'm prepared to forgive them as their fourth round opponents Wigan are playing some awful football of their own.

If both sides really set out to win this game then we could be in for an entertaining encounter, however, I'm not sure that will be the case. Like Birmingham, Wigan's priority is Premier League survival and I have a feeling we'll see a few unfamiliar faces in their line-up. Under 2.5 Goals ([1.9]) is likely to be the outcome, though my best of this game is Bolton Win to Nil - available to back at [3.2].

Watford [1.92] v Brighton [4.4]; The Draw [3.8]

This promises to be one of the most entertaining of all fourth round fixtures - Championship play-off hopefuls Watford score for fun whilst Brighton also know how to attack and currently sit top of League One. Basically, every man and his dog are expecting goals in this game and I'll be surprised if anyone is left disappointed.

Predicting the outcome of the game is a hard one - my marginal preference would be for the home side - so it is probably best that we stick to the goals markets. Over 2.5 Goals is available to back at [1.84], but I'm going to make Over 3.5 Goals ([3.1]) my best bet of the weekend. The Hornets' last five home games - in which they have won every one - have averaged 4.2 goals per game, whilst Gus Poyet's Brighton have scored 15 goals in six games since the turn of the year.

West Ham [2.32] v Nottm Forest [3.7]; The Draw [3.4] (Playing Sunday)

The Premier League strugglers featured so far (Birmingham and Wigan) I've tipped to encounter problems in their respective fourth round ties, but in West Ham's case I have a small hunch that they'll do ok. Beating Forest - who have won seven of their last eight games - won't be an easy task however, but how many opportunities will you get to back a Premier League side at home to a Championship side at odds of [2.32]?

True, the Hammers are bottom of the Premier League for a reason, but their recent results (won two, drew two and lost two of their last six) suggests they are improving, albeit slowly. As I've said, Forest are in great form but I still think there's a big gulf between the top two divisions in English football. I fancy a few goals here and have no hesitation backing Over 2.5 Goals at [2.06], but my main bet in this game is simply to back a home win.

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Back Over 3.5 Goals at [3.1] in Watford v Brighton
Back Aston Villa HT/Aston Villa FT at [3.1] v Blackburn
Lay Birmingham at [1.89] v Coventry
Back Bolton Win to Nil at [3.2] v Wigan
Back West Ham at [2.32] to beat Nottm Forest

*Mike's record on his Best Bets this season is 17 wins from 38 selections resulting in a profit/loss of +£2.40 (£10 stake/liability per selection)

View the original article here