"Following his victory in the Memorial Tournament, Woods has obviously retained the same rich vein of form, reminiscent of his invincible peak."
Paul Krishnamurty analyses the state of play at the halfway stage of the US Open and gives some big price selections to trade In-Play as well as some two-ball bets...
Outright
1u Padraig Harrington @ 100.099/1
1u win Ernie Els @ 140.0139/1
As usual, the strategy for 'Moving Day' during a major weekend is simple. Look for a couple of plausible, attractively-priced candidates currently off the pace but still very much in contention. Back high, with a view to laying low during the weekend twist and turns. For this US Open, however, whilst there is no shortage of such candidates, there is a rather significant potential fly in the ointment.
Tiger Woods' long game has been sublime over the first couple of days and we should be grateful that he hasn't really made the most of it. Rather than sharing the lead with two others, Tiger could easily have pulled a few shots clear last night, setting up a reproduction of one of those dull Majors from earlier this century when the principle weekend interest concerned who would finish second. That may well still happen.
Following his victory in the Memorial Tournament, Woods has obviously retained the same rich vein of form, reminiscent of his invincible peak. Nevertheless, given that Tiger's temperament in contention over the past few troubled years has been far from bombproof, it would still take a brave man to pile in at 2.71/1 when there are so many capable players within close proximity - not least co-leaders Jim Furyk and David Toms.
Personally, I expect Tiger to win his 15th major title and am therefore disinterested in the shorter-priced chasers. There could still be some trading mileage, however, in backing a couple of multiple major winners in triple figures. With six major titles between them and a plethora of high finishes on the toughest layouts, Padraig Harrington and Ernie Els know exactly what will be required as the already brutal Olympic Club layout gets even tougher over the weekend. High-class scrambling is going to be essential, and both are among the very best in that department. From five back, both are close enough to play a hand, if Tiger gives anybody an inch.
Two-balls
3u Jesse Mueller @ 3.92/1 (vs Fowler) (Starts 17.45)
This weekend is going to require patience, discipline and determination to scrap for every shot. Several big names are bound to be humiliated and by halfway through today's round, with any winning chance long gone, many will be wishing they were at home. It is not the ideal time to be taking short odds-on about inexperienced, somewhat erratic prospects. Rickie Fowler is probably the next big US star, but he's fallen away badly after a promising start. After a catastrophic closing 84 last time out at the Memorial Tournament and achieving nothing of note in previous US Opens, Rickie has yet to prove he has the required mental fortitude for this test. I doubt many outside his home state knows too much about his qualifer opponent, but we can be certain that Jesse Mueller will be delighted to have made the weekend and that this recent lower-level winner will indeed be scrapping for every shot.
3u Alex Cejka @ 3.52/1 (vs Mickelson) (Starts 18.55)
A similar argument applies here. It will be 'birdie or bust' for Mickelson today, for whom a distant mid-division finish means little. His attitude has often left a lot to be desired in such circumstances, and Olympic Club is hardly the type of course where shooting at pins makes sense. In stark contrast, the experienced Cejka is famed for his accuracy.
6u Sergio Garcia @ 1.9n/a (vs Watney) (Starts 21.35)
Without wishing to contradict the above argument, I'm fully aware that Sergio Garcia's attitude is hardly exemplary but there are mitigating circumstances for this bet. Firstly, he's not a short odds-on chance like Fowler and Mickelson. Rather he's just below even money against a player with zero US Open pedigree prior to this week. Watney has never bettered 60th place in this major, and owes his relatively prominent position to playing the par-five 17th in six shots over the first two rounds. I'm expecting him to fall back over the weekend, whereas Garcia has an excellent record in the US Open. The Spanish enigma has four top-tens in this major, and has made the top-25 in the last four despite rarely being in top form. He's another plausible outsider for the title.
6u Tiger Woods @ 1.8n/a (vs Furyk) (Starts 23.05)
This final bet needs little explanation, given my above comments. Taking absolutely nothing away from bona-fide contender Jim Furyk, but if Tiger Woods really is back to his best, 1.8n/a against anyone over 18 holes represents great value.
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