Against All Odds: Scotland to start the Rhodes to redemption

"To put it bluntly, Serbia are far too short at around the 1.635/8 mark to win this match and I have to make them my lay of the day."

Lay Serbia v Scotland @ 1.635/8 

Scotland have been written off by almost everyone and they travel to Serbia tonight as huge outsiders, but Paul Robinson thinks that they can restore some pride in the Balkans.

Serbia are fourth in Group A, and like their opponents, they won't be qualifying for Rio 2014. Former star player, Siniša Mihajlovic is the current head coach but he has hardly pulled up any trees in his time as boss. His reign began with three friendly defeats and he didn't get his first win until his sixth game, where the Serbs hammered a depleted and out of form Wales side.

Things took a turn for the worse as they were thrashed at home by Belgium and followed that up with a 1-0 defeat away at minnows Macedonia. Mihajlovic's men did then win a couple of friendlies but they were against Chile and Cyprus, and they were comfortably beaten on Friday in Croatia. 

The point I'm trying to make is that Serbia just aren't very good, despite having the services of Premier League stars like Branislav Ivanovic and Matija Nastasic at their disposal. They lack a bit in the forward areas, which is illustrated by the fact that aside from the Welsh battering, they have failed to score in their other two home games under Mihajlovic.

Scotland are bottom of Group A with two points and they could really do with finishing higher up than that so their UEFA coefficient doesn't drop for the next qualifying tournament. Gordon Strachan has replaced Craig Levein and despite edging past Estonia in his opening match in charge, they were beaten and largely outplayed by Wales on Friday.

Steven Fletcher went off injured in that game and he is likely to be replaced by Jordan Rhodes this evening. I think that could prove vital for the Scots as the Blackburn Rovers player looks like a real prospect and scores goals for fun. 

Robert Snodgrass is suspended after his red card and Scotland are missing some first choice defenders but I just have a feeling that The Tartan Army will brave the snowy conditions and pick up a positive result.

To put it bluntly, Serbia are far too short at around the 1.635/8 mark to win this match and I have to make them my lay of the day.  

Recommended Bet
Lay Serbia v Scotland @ 1.635/8 

This match is live on ESPN & BBC Scotland at 19:30

Wagered: 84 pts
Returned: 83.48 pts
P/L – 0.52 pts (after commission)
(2012 P/L: + 9.60 pts)

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Against All Odds: Brighton seeks redemption in Hull

Against All Odds / Paul Robinson / 22 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Cheer up, Gus, Paul reckons you can get a result at Hull

"I think Brighton have it in them to get a result tonight, so with the home win trading at around [1.91], I have to make it my lay of the day."

Following their hammering against Liverpool, Brighton travel to Hull this evening. The current odds suggest that they won't be atoning tonight but Paul Robinson has other ideas.

Yesterday's lay was home and hosed by the half an hour mark which is always nice and I'm confident about today's selection too.

Hull City are eighth in the Championship. Club legend Nick Barmby has got his side on a decent run of form which has seen them move to within three points of the play-offs with at least one game in hand over their rivals. A win tonight would see The Tigers go sixth so they will certainly be motivated to go for the victory and not sit back and accept a draw.

They are, however, prone to the odd poor performance at the KC Stadium. They have been beaten by Derby and held by lowly Doncaster in 2012. In fact, they've only won five of their last nine at home in the league so their win rate is not much more than 50%. If you add away form, Hull have been victorious in just three of their last eight and, while that isn't a crisis, confidence is everything in football and it could play on their minds.

Brighton are one place behind tonight's opponents. After an incredible start to the campaign, last year's League One champions slumped down the table after a poor run of results, but Gus Poyet has stopped the slide and they are in decent nick again. While they did suffer a 6-1 mauling at Anfield in the cup on Sunday, they aren't facing opposition anywhere near as good as that tonight and The Seagulls are on an unbeaten run of seven in the Championship. Away from Falmer Stadium, Albion have won two of their last three and drawn the other, scoring five goals in the process. After serving a three match ban, midfielder Matt Sparrow is available again and he should bring some freshness to the team as they look to put the Liverpool result behind them.

A match between The Tigers and The Seagulls sounds like a forgone conclusion, but I think Brighton have it in them to get a result tonight, so with the home win trading at around [1.91], I have to make it my lay of the day.

Recommended Bet
Lay Hull against Brighton @ [1.91]

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