La Liga Betting: Athletic Bilbao and Sevilla worth watching

Spanish Football / Tobias Gourlay / 03 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Another starry night for Fernando? Llorente will lead Athletic Bilbao's charge at Sevilla's exposed defence

"Athletic Bilbao’s most recent six games at San Mames have each turned up exactly three goals."

Tobias Gourlay has been flat out trying to keep up with all that the Primera Division action this week, but he is still not as stretched as Sevilla's defence.

Real Mallorca v Valencia (Saturday 1700 GMT)

Valencia have won more points from losing positions this season than any other team in La Liga. Unai Emery's team leave their comebacks late too, scoring result-changing goals in eight of their last ten matches. They couldn't do it against Barcelona in midweek, but Real Mallorca are altogether more forgiving opponents.

Barcelona v Real Zaragoza (Saturday 1900 GMT)

Pep Guardiola went into hospital after Barcelona got back from their successful midweek trip to Valencia. The league leaders' coach has had a back problem for a while, but it flared up on Wednesday night and he might well have to miss Saturday evening's match at the Camp Nou.

In theory, they would miss his sharp tactical analysis. In practice, they probably would not need it. Barca have won their last 10 at the Camp Nou and been ahead by half-time in seven of their last nine there. The XI that starts the game should be the one to finish it as a contest against Real Zaragoza.

The visitors have been avoiding defeat on their travels since Javier Aguirre started coaching them (W1-D4-L2) but they are not scoring regularly enough - only five times in the seven games - to trouble the champions.

Barcelona/Barcelona is [1.47] in the Half Time/Full Time market.

Levante v Espanyol (Sunday 1600 GMT)

Luis Garcia did an amazing thing last season, getting Levante promoted. When he took charge in 2008, the club had just been relegated and forced to release more than 90% of the squad. He built a solid, hardworking side, despite being allowed only free transfers and loan signings. Rafa Benitez was impressed and reportedly interested in taking Garcia to Inter with him. If only.

Garcia stayed in eastern Spain and has been defying the odds again this season. The Valencians are 13th in the table, having gone W4-D1-L1 in recent weeks, home and away. They have only been beaten by Real Madrid. At the Ciutat de Valencia they have won 5/7 over a longer period.

Espanyol lost their last away match 4-0 at Osasuna and have been beaten in 4/6 outside Catalonia, conceding 13 goals along the way. Tuesday's home defeat to Mallorca was a fourth in five games anywhere and Mauricio Pochettino's young Parakeets are not as chirpy as they were before Christmas.

Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla (Sunday 1800 GMT)

Sevilla's last four away games have produced 20 goals. Gregorio Manzano was not able to sign the central midfielder he needs to shield his defence and must be grateful for an upturn in the potency of his attack.

Athletic Bilbao's most recent six games at San Mames have each turned up exactly three goals. So long as their talismanic striker, Fernando Llorente, is fully recovered from the head injury he received last weekend - a goal in midweek suggests he is - there is no compelling reason to suppose this match will not go the same way. Over 2.5 Goals is an even-money shot.

Racing Santander v Real Madrid (Sunday 2000 GMT)

A week ago, this column called a goalless draw between Deportivo La Coruna and Real Madrid at [23.0]. Will there be another one this weekend?

Possibly. Remember that Racing Santander are not quite so used to all-out defence as Depor, but, if their coach, Marcelino, deploys a man-marker to hassle Xabi Alonso like Juan Rodriguez did last Saturday, Real might struggle to improve a record that shows two goals scored in their last four away games.

Racing are on a nine-match unbeaten at El Sardinero, despite not keeping a clean sheet there this year. Laying Real, who are [1.43] favourites to win, is an option, but some people taking on a team containing Cristiano Ronaldo (if he is fit) and Mesut Ozil will want a greater reward for their bravery.

The market is wising up and you will be lucky to find [20.0] about 0-0 in the Correct Score market on Sunday, so the draw ([5.0]) might be a better bet this week.

Best Bet: Back Over 2.5 Goals at [2.0] in Athletic Bilbao v Sevilla
Recommended Bet: Back Levante at [2.52] to beat Espanyol

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Europa League: Porto v Sevilla

Europa League / Richard Aikman / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Falcao will return from injury to give Sevilla even more headaches

"While seventh-placed Liga side Sevilla were sweating over a 1-0 over Hercules, Porto’s players were rested up over the weekend and also expect to welcome back the competition’s top marksman, Falcao, whose knee injury absented him in Andalucia."

Porto are very much in the driving seat after winning the first leg in Spain and Sevilla will have no option but to go for it. All of which means goals should be on the cards again...

After a close-run first leg, these two outgoing European sides are likely to dish up more goalmouth action in Portugal, with the hosts edging past the luckless Andalucians.

When Freddie Kanouté scored his fifth goal in the competition to cancel out Rolando's opener, the Spanish side looked a good bet to win the match. Indeed, had the Mali striker not missed an open goal, we might have been talking about Sevilla, rather than Porto winning 2-1.

As it was Kanouté inexplicably fluffed his lines and a subsequent mistake in midfield led to Fredy Guarin's late winner. Now Porto are [1.11] to qualify, while the Rojiblancos need an [8.6] miracle to get through to the round of 16.

"The draw would have probably been the fairest result," admitted Porto coach André Villas-Boas, whose side have lost just once since 21 March. "But when Sevilla looked for the second goal, we had the chance to counterrattack."

With Gregorio Manzano's charges in need of at least two goals at the Estadio Dragao, a similar gameplan can be expected from Porto, who are eight points clear in the Portuguese standings. Their European record this term reads: WWWWWDWWW.

While seventh-placed Liga side Sevilla were sweating over a 1-0 over Hercules, Porto's players were rested up over the weekend and also expect to welcome back the competition's top marksman, Falcao, whose knee injury absented him in Andalucia.

Expect the improving visitors, who are [4.8] to win, to come at Porto ([1.82]) - they have to - and for the wily Portuguese, who only need a draw to go through, to pick them off (a repeat of the 1-1 draw they managed against Besiktas in the group stage is priced at [8.6]).

Recommended bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ [1.79]; Back the Draw @ [4.0];

Porto are very much in the driving seat after winning the first leg in Spain and Sevilla will have no option but to go for it. All of which means goals should be on the cards again......

The away side are tremendous value and should be backed to heap more misery on a struggling Seville outfit, says Richard Aikman...

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