Man City v Porto: Plenty of work still to be done

Europa League / Jaymes Monte / 21 February 2012 / Leave a Comment

Porto can still cause City one or two problems.

"So long as they don’t concede more than one goal – something they have only done twice all season at home – then City will be through to the next round."

Although City are in an extremely strong position Jaymes Monte believes that there may still be some mileage in the tie...

Man City v Porto, KO: 1700 GMT, ESPN, Match Odds: Man City [1.67], Porto [6.2], The Draw [4.0]
Manchester City have one foot in the Europa League last 16 after Sergio Aguero's late strike gave The Citizens an unlikely win in the Estadio do Dragao last week. Porto will now need to become only the third away team to win at the Etihad Stadium since it was renamed as such if they are to remain on course to defend their Europa League crown.

City had gone behind in Portugal last Thursday but battled back through a deflected Yaya Toure cross then an 84th minute tap in from Aguero after good work again from Toure.

The Ivorian's return to the side is a massive boost to Roberto Mancini and City, and comes at an ideal time as Manchester United apply increasing pressure on the domestic front. The Premier League remains Mancini's priority but the Italian is keen to also make an impact in the Europa League, as was evidenced by his team selection last week.

Having not played at the weekend and a home game against Blackburn to come on Saturday there is no reason for Mancini to abandon those philosophies here, he also has the luxury of a fully fit squad and so we should expect a strong City side this midweek.

Porto, on the other hand, do have personnel problems as Alvaro Pereira is unavailable due to suspension and right-back Danilo misses out with a knee injury.

Match Odds
City are quite obviously in the driving seat in the tie, and odds of [1.09] on them progressing to the last-16 quite accurately reflect that. But this tie is far from over. Porto haven't lost a two-legged Europa League (or UEFA Cup) tie since the 2000/01 season; winning the trophy on the two occasions that they have been involved in the competition in the intermitting years.

That may not be enough to warrant backing them to overturn the deficit and qualify for the next round at [11.0], but it is enough to generate some interest in a lay of City at odds of [1.67]. I'm always wary of backing a team that don't need to win, and when odds-on prices are offered in such situations I feel almost obliged to lay them. There is no exception here.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals
The away goals rule ensures that Porto have to come to Manchester and attack. A 1-0 win would not be enough to see them progress; they must score twice in order to at least remain in the tie.

Whilst that should logically tip the betting in favour of a high-scoring game it is also worth considering the situation from a Manchester City perspective; so long as they don't concede more than one goal - something they have only done twice all season at home - then it is they who will be through to the next round.

Over 2.5 goals is a shade of odds-on at the [1.9] mark with Under 2.5 goals at [2.1]. The best option could be one for In-Play traders who can back the Unders selection pre-match then trade out for a guaranteed profit or a risk-free bet as the game progresses and Porto make the increasingly necessary advances.

To Score
Our Opta stats highlight, interestingly, that Yaya Toure is City's top scorer in Europe this season with three goals. As mentioned above, his return to the club is a timely boost and one that could drive the Citizens to honours later in the season.

Despite his scoring record in continental competition Toure still pops up at double-figure prices in the first goalscorer market, and an even more appealing [4.2] in the To Score market. It may not be one to pile into, but it certainly represents good value.

For the Portuguese side all attentions will be focussed on one man. Hulk has played a part (scored four and assisted two) in six of Porto's eight European goals this season, yet is still available at appealing prices in the goalscorer markets. The Brazilian is around [9.0] to break the deadlock and [3.75] to net at anytime.

Best Bet:
Back Under 2.5 goals @ [2.1], with a view to trade In-Play

Recommended Bets:
Lay Man City to beat Porto @ [1.67]
Back Yaya Toure to score @ [4.2]
Back Hulk to score @ [3.75]

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Europa League Betting: CSKA Moscow v Porto

Europa League / Kevin Hatchard / 09 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Incredible Hulk, incredible record. The Brazilian star has scored 19 goals in 20 league matches.

"CSKA’s record against Thursday’s opponents Porto is abysmal. In four matches the Army Men have failed to score, let alone win, and they’ve lost both home games against the Dragons."

Porto are flying at home and have looked very impressive in Europe. Conditions in Moscow are always daunting but there are good reasons to think the Portuguese outfit can actually win this one.

Because the Russian Premier League season ended in November, CSKA have played just six competitive games in three months. Understandably they had great difficulty disposing of PAOK Salonika in the previous round, only winning the tie with a goal ten minutes from the end of the second leg.

The Russian league resumes this weekend, and CSKA have had mixed fortunes in their two domestic games so far. They lost 1-0 to bitter rivals Zenit in the Russian Super Cup, but beat Shinnik 1-0 in the Russian Cup.

CSKA's record against Thursday's opponents Porto is abysmal. In four matches the Army Men have failed to score, let alone win, and they've lost both home games against the Dragons.

Porto are flying in the Portuguese league, and have a nine point lead at the top. Led by charismatic young coach Andre Villas Boas (a disciple of Jose Mourinho), Porto have won 20 out of 22 league matches, drawing the other two and conceding a miserly seven goals.

Their Europa League record is also eye-catching - in the group stage they won five and drew one, and they overcame Sevilla on away goals. Porto boast the tournament's top scorer in Radamel Falcao (seven goals), and strike partner Hulk has scored 19 goals in 20 league matches.

RECOMMENDED BET: CSKA's season is just starting, and Porto have won on their last two trips to the Russian capital. Back Porto to win at [2.96]

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Europa League: Porto v Sevilla

Europa League / Richard Aikman / 22 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Falcao will return from injury to give Sevilla even more headaches

"While seventh-placed Liga side Sevilla were sweating over a 1-0 over Hercules, Porto’s players were rested up over the weekend and also expect to welcome back the competition’s top marksman, Falcao, whose knee injury absented him in Andalucia."

Porto are very much in the driving seat after winning the first leg in Spain and Sevilla will have no option but to go for it. All of which means goals should be on the cards again...

After a close-run first leg, these two outgoing European sides are likely to dish up more goalmouth action in Portugal, with the hosts edging past the luckless Andalucians.

When Freddie Kanouté scored his fifth goal in the competition to cancel out Rolando's opener, the Spanish side looked a good bet to win the match. Indeed, had the Mali striker not missed an open goal, we might have been talking about Sevilla, rather than Porto winning 2-1.

As it was Kanouté inexplicably fluffed his lines and a subsequent mistake in midfield led to Fredy Guarin's late winner. Now Porto are [1.11] to qualify, while the Rojiblancos need an [8.6] miracle to get through to the round of 16.

"The draw would have probably been the fairest result," admitted Porto coach André Villas-Boas, whose side have lost just once since 21 March. "But when Sevilla looked for the second goal, we had the chance to counterrattack."

With Gregorio Manzano's charges in need of at least two goals at the Estadio Dragao, a similar gameplan can be expected from Porto, who are eight points clear in the Portuguese standings. Their European record this term reads: WWWWWDWWW.

While seventh-placed Liga side Sevilla were sweating over a 1-0 over Hercules, Porto's players were rested up over the weekend and also expect to welcome back the competition's top marksman, Falcao, whose knee injury absented him in Andalucia.

Expect the improving visitors, who are [4.8] to win, to come at Porto ([1.82]) - they have to - and for the wily Portuguese, who only need a draw to go through, to pick them off (a repeat of the 1-1 draw they managed against Besiktas in the group stage is priced at [8.6]).

Recommended bet: Back Over 2.5 goals @ [1.79]; Back the Draw @ [4.0];

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Europa League Betting: Seville v Porto

Europa League / Richard Aikman / 16 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Flying Falcao can fire Porto to victory over Seville

"The hosts have not been at all good at home this season, losing heavily to the likes of Getafe and Almeria and most recently sharing a 0-0 draw with rock bottom Malaga. A 4-0 group stage victory against Karpaty Lviv is no real barometer of home strength."

The away side are tremendous value and should be backed to heap more misery on a struggling Seville outfit, says Richard Aikman

Sevilla ([2.58]) drew the short straw when Porto were picked out as their next opponents, and the high-scoring Portuguese outfit are excellent value at [3.05] to continue where they left off with an away win against the stuttering Andalucians.

With one win from their last five matches Gregorio Manzano's men have not been having a good time of things lately, and their current plight was best encapsulated by Saturday's defeat to Racing Santander. Though Alvaro Negredo missed a penalty Sevilla came back from two goals down only for goalkeeper Andres Palop to come charging out of goal in the last minute and invite Manuel Arena to lob him from 40 yards.

The hosts have not been at all good at home this season, losing heavily to the likes of Getafe and Almeria and most recently sharing a 0-0 draw with rock bottom Malaga. A 4-0 group stage victory against Karpaty Lviv is no real barometer of home strength.

Porto, by contrast, are unbeaten in eight games the competition so far, have won all four of their European away matches and plundered 14 goals, half of which have been scored by the Europa League's top scorer Falcao. Even though the Portuguese league leaders suffered their first defeat since 21 March, in a league cup loss, André Villas-Boas's impressive side can be trusted to bounce back.

Recommended Bets:
Porto to win @ [3.05]
Over 2.5 goals @ [2.08]
Porto Total Goals 3 or more @ [8.0]

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