Match Previews 
/ Geoffrey Riddle / 26 February 2011 / Leave a Comment Will Andy Robinson get a response from his players?
"Although Scotland look considerable value on the handicap, I’d much prefer to back the unders in the total points market."
Geoffrey Riddle suffered with the Scots a fortnight ago. So can they bounce back at Murrayfield against Ireland and where will our man put his money this time?
For someone who relies heavily on statistical analysis, Scotland's encounter with Ireland at Murrayfield on Sunday is somewhat tricky. All the analysis in the world will not gain access in to the minds of the Scottish players, who threw away a gilt-edged opportunity to beat Wales a fortnight ago, and my money with it.
I will confess here that I lost a fair chunk on Andy Robinson's men, but having poured over the match statistics it is fair to say that it was simply one of those things that as a punter one has to take on the chin.
Scotland beat twice as many defenders as Wales in their 24-6 defeat. They made more clean breaks, they offloaded three times as often and made twice as many metres with the ball in hand. Although their scrum creaked at the outset, they turned over Wales twice against the head, too. And yet despite this superiority, and a two-man advantage after Lee Byrne and Bardley Davies were sent to the sin bin, they made 19 errors of such horrendous importance that they came off a distinct second best on the scoreboard.
Robinson was rightly livid, and has made seven changes that look to have strengthened Scotland's hand. Chris Paterson, Scotland's most capped player, will bring some much needed calm at full back, as well as some dead-eyed accuracy with the boot. Half backs Mike Blair and Ruaridh Jackson will bring a bit of devil to Scotland's play going forward and the fit again Richie Gray and Johnnie Beattie, who has recovered from shoulder surgery, will ensure the pack does not take a step backwards. Sean Lamont is also brought in, but as the Northampton back went 20 Tests without scoring a try until he crossed in Paris in round one, he makes Mark Cueto look dangerous.
And yet, as is Scotland's lot in the Six Nations, they have been bitterly unlucky. As a Christian, the God-fearing Euan Murray will not feature, and the best player on the park two weeks ago, Rory Lamont, misses out through injury. Joe Ansbro, who was superb against France and laughable against Wales, is also injured.
For their part, I thought Ireland were just as good as France in Dublin. The 25-22 scoreline reflects that, and if Gordon D'Arcy had not missed that tackle on Aurelien Rougerie in the 53rd minute to send over Maxime Medard, Ireland would probably have won. To show how close the margins are between defeat and victory, the Leinster man made nine tackles in that match, and only missed Rougerie.
Declan Kidney, the Ireland coach, has named Ronan O'Gara at fly-half, suggesting heavily that Ireland intend to play for position and put so much pressure on Scotland that they crack once again. As one punter on Twitter pointed out, however, Ireland have conceded far too many penalties recently for that to be totally effective and this looks to have all the ingredients of an arm-wrestle.
Having crunched the numbers, I firmly believe that this should be a scratch match. My database indicates that matches of similar nature to this in past tournaments have resulted in the home side receiving no more than a three-point start, too. Scotland are by no means bomb-proof, however. Under Robinson they have only twice scored more points in the second half than in the first half, strongly suggesting that the English coach needs to stop his squad eating too many deep-fried Mars bars and do more bleep tests.
This is likely to be an edgy contest, decided by two strong goal-kickers. Although Scotland look considerable value on the handicap, I'd much prefer to back the unders in the total points market. That way if Scotland put in another horror show and collapse in the second half through lack of fitness I will not be so deflated.
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