Match Previews 
/ Geoffrey Riddle / 11 March 2011 / Leave a Comment Geoffrey believes that Declan Kidney's dressing down will have the desired effect on his team
"Ireland have picked the right side for the clash in Cardiff, where, amazingly, they have not lost since 1985."
Never mind the wisdom of Wilko, Geoffrey Riddle believes that stats could hold the key to finding the value in Saturday's big match at the Millenium.
For those gamblers out there who rely on statistics, don't. That's the belief system of Jonny Wilkinson, the World Cup winner.
The Toulon and England fly-half has been talking himself down this week, saying that the England team are better without him. "People refer to statistics because it is an easy way to create a comparison," said the world's record points scorer. "When you play for a team, however, you realise they mean absolutely nothing. It means nothing that I have scored all of those points because they tell you nothing of how those points were scored, which kicks went over that were not that great and the great kicks that missed. It doesn't tell anything."
For those of you who do not subscribe to the Wilkinson-Benjamin Disraeli train of thought, there are a few statistics that standout this weekend which, on the face of it, look of significant interest when punting on Wales' clash with Ireland on Saturday at the Millennium Stadium. Sorry Jonny.
Handicap punters will have realised by now that Ireland have been poor value lately, with Declan Kidney's men falling short of the high street bookmakers' estimation ten times in their last 14 matches.
If recent failure to cover the handicap means expectation of Ireland is lower then it's interesting that, on the initial lines on Betfair, Brian O'Driscoll and co. are favourites in the betting, receiving a 2.5-point start. This arises from the high street layers' handicap, which is generally scratch.
For what it's worth, I made Ireland three-point favourites when I priced up the match earlier this week.
Ireland have made a habit of getting on the scoreboard early. They have scored the first try of the match in their last six matches, and early, too, with four inside the 20 minute mark. In contrast, Wales have scored the first try just four times in their last 15 matches. It may be hard for Wales to peg them back if the sequence continues.
Kidney has played it safe by naming Ronan O'Gara in the No.10 jersey again this week after he was in the saddle when Ireland scored three tries against Scotland at Murrayfield last time out. For the purposes of Saturday's match, there is scarcely a better choice than the Munsterman. Anyone who has been keeping an eye on the Super 15 recently will have seen that Jonathan Kaplan, the referee, has allowed the maul to flourish.
Kidney has clearly taken this into account, and with Ireland's vastly superior eight, it may well come down to a game plan as simple as O'Gara playing for position and Ireland rumbling over the whitewash.
Purists will be aghast, especially when the Welsh backline including James Hook, Jonathan Davies, Lee Byrne and Leigh Halfpenny oozes class and has the ability to conjure up tries off limited possession.
Although Ireland have given away 35 penalties so far in the Six Nations, the quietly-spoken Kidney gave the squad an uncharacteristic dressing down earlier this week. The starting XV are unlikely to make similar mistakes again.
Warren Gatland, the Wales coach, included Halfpenny in his run-on side partly because the Cardiff wing can bisect the posts from a penalty 60 metres out. Wales, however, have conceded 36 penalties in the tournament and O'Gara is sure to get his opportunities, too.
Rugby is not like most sports. When a side is totally out-pointed up front it can be very difficult to make an impression, especially if your back-row is up against it and cannot turn over ball for the counter-attack.
I believe that Ireland have picked the right side for the clash in Cardiff, where, amazingly, they have not lost since 1985. The statistics say Ireland, the way the game might pan out also indicates the visitors have the upper hand. Whether you believe Wilkinson or not, Kidney's side look fair value.
Never mind the wisdom of Wilko, Geoffrey Riddle believes that stats could hold the key to finding the value in Saturday's big match at the Millenium....
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