Formula One 
/ The Betfair Contrarian / 07 April 2011 / Leave a Comment Will hostilities between Vettel and Webber scupper the German's chances?
"The Drivers' Championship is tougher to retain than ever... "
Sebastian Vettel who took the chequered flag in Australia, prompting many to predict a successful title defence. The Contrarian isn't buying it though, and thinks the Red Bull driver represents an irresistible lay at [1.92]. Here's why...
There are 18 races to go
Nine of the last 14 winners of the seaon curtain-raiser have gone on to be crowned champion but that statistic alone isn't enough to justify Vettel's price being sliced from [3.4] to [1.92]. There are countless examples of drivers starting a campaign strongly before fading - for example, David Coulthard twice triumphed in the opener and on five occasions made the podium without ever seriously challenging. Last season, Alonso delivered in Bahrain before enduring nine straight races without success, whereas Vettel ended March 25 points off the pace yet still recovered.
Nobody ever stays on top
As the Contrarian highlighted recently, the Drivers' Championship is tougher to retain than ever due to the climate of constant rule change and dependence on manufacturers and strategy. The past five seasons have produced five different world champions (Fernando Alonso, Kimi Raikkonen, Hamilton, Jensen Button and Vettel). It's even harder to stay on top in your early years, as shown by the fact that of the eight youngest winners in history, only two managed to do it again the following year. Vettel has now surpassed those eight as the youngest ever driver to establish himself as the sport's finest. He faces an equally daunting task to stay there.
McLaren are stronger than anticipated
McLaren were accused of sandbagging in pre-season testing after exceeding all expectations at the Australian Grand Prix, where Hamilton finished second and Button wound up sixth. The Woking-based team weren't fancied to be anywhere near as high in the standings this early in the campaign after their poor performances over the winter and the fact that they are - regardless of whether it is due to exaggerating the extent of their malaise or making swift progress - is bad news for Vettel and Red Bull, who looked set to have a chance to build a big lead before McLaren achieve top form.
The return of team orders is a blow
One of the most significant of the latest batch of regulation alterations is the return of team orders, allowing constructors to instruct their drivers to let title-chasing team-mates pass them and the like. It's one that might not please the Red Bull bosses too much given that their employees Vettel and Mark Webber had the most trouble of all the leading pairings when it came to working in tandem last year. The veteran Australian became increasingly frustrated with what he perceived to be the favourable treatment towards his younger colleague and may feel that it is his turn to be supported. This year is one of his final opportunities to reach the top.
Petrov is this year's dark horse
Incredibly, each of the last four seasons have provided first-time champions, so don't discount the prospect of an emerging talent threatening the traditional frontrunners. This year's potential surprise package is Renault's Russian driver Vitaly Petrov, who after an unremarkable first season, hit the headlines in the finale at Abu Dhabi after holding off title contender Alonso for sixth place, much to the Spaniard's frustration. He got the better of the two-time champion again in Australia for his first podium and, while Alonso claimed that he wasn't bothered as he doesn't view Petrov as a rival, not all punters agreed with his dismissal, as the 26-year-old's price has shot in from [730.00] to [230.00].
While other stars whinge and curse, Lewis Hamilton is showing remarkable signs of maturity, says Ralph Ellis. But can he follow up his impressive performance in Australia with a win at Sepang this weekend?...
James Frankland on what we know so far about the different cars ahead of the first race of the season....
You'll be able to read articles about every Grand Prix of 2011 on Betting.Betfair as well as a comprehensive, up-to-the-minute race preview when qualifying has finished. For now, here's a quick update on the latest Championship odds....
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