The Punter 
/ Steven Rawlings / 23 March 2012 / Leave a Comment 
Tiger Woods - a value price now, according to The Punter
“The [5.5] Tiger Woods trades at now looks better value than the [9.2] he started the week at but given he’ll feature in tonight’s live broadcast, it makes sense to wait and see how he’s playing. “
Our man's off to a poor start in Morocco, where they've only just started playing round two, but it's better news in Florida where both his picks start well, and he's got his eye on Tiger Woods too now...
15:10 - March 23, 2012
I thought I'd better post again, as I wouldn't want to put anyone away with my earlier comment about the draw bias in Morocco. Most surprisingly, the wind has dropped away to nothing and those on the course now are faring quite well.
14:10 - March 23, 2012
After yet another pants start by my picks at a European Tour event, I took the decision to go to the gym this morning and it was the best decision I've made so far with regards to the Trophee Hassan II. High winds suspended play all morning so I didn't miss a thing.
Best of my pre-event picks so far is Hennie Otto, who on -3, is four shots off the early pace set by Damien McGrane. It looked as though he was going to be in a much better place at one point though. With a hole to play his score read -6 but he made double-bogey on the 18th and had one of his earlier birdies changed to a par. An error on the European Tour website's leaderboard! Whatever next? I am, of course, being sarcastic. No doubt, next will be yet more scoring errors. I can't stress enough how careful you have to be when trading in-running on the European Tour, score changes are commonplace on their website.
To make matters worse with my picks, I'd written in my preview that I may well back Alex Noren if he continued to drift. Unfortunately he did just that and I added him to my portfolio at [60.0]. He shot two over par. And I can't say I'm too chuffed to see last week's fancy, Alejandro Canizares, bang there a week late either!
It looks likely that those drawn early - late are going to have a huge advantage now. Play has just restarted and the afternoon starters of yesterday, who should have played this morning, are out there now battling what's still a strong breeze. Those that played yesterday morning and that should have been out there now, are not likely to see any action today. Instead they'll start round two in the morning, where they're almost certain to encounter easier conditions.
I'm going to wait and see how things develop in Morocco now and focus my attentions on the Arnold Palmer Invitational, where thankfully I fared a bit better on day one. It hasn't been without its frustrations though.
As I write, Bubba Watson, one of my two picks, has just missed a birdie putt from within four feet, and that's the third time he's missed from that distance already this week. That really doesn't bode well at all.
Watson and my only other pick, Sean O'Hair, both finished day one inside the top-10 after shooting three under par. Jason Dufner and Charlie Wi held the early lead after shooting three better. Tiger Woods equalled my guys' and with an afternoon start, I'll be keeping a very keen eye on him this evening. The [5.5] he trades at now looks better value than the [9.2] he started the week at but given he'll feature in tonight's live broadcast, it makes sense to wait and see how he's playing.
Trophee Hassan II Pre-Event Selections:
Rhys Davies @ [60.0]
Alex Noren @ [60.0]
Hennie Otto @ [70.0]
Julien Quesne @ [85.0]
Michael Hoey @ [85.0]
Eduardo De La Riva @ [130.0]
Arnold Palmer Invitational Pre-Event Selections:
Bubba Watson @ [32.0]
Sean O'Hair @ [95.0]
Steve Rawlings, aka The Punter, looks forward to the year's first major, highlighting trends to follow and pitfalls to avoid at the US Masters...
With so little course form to go on, Steve looks to last week for the bulk of his five selections at this week's Race To Dubai event......
The Punter takes a look at this week's PGA Tour event, where Tiger Woods bids to win his seventh Arnold Palmer Invitational......
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