IPL Betting: Kings XI Punjab vs Rajasthan Royals

"Picking the winner therefore boils down to which side can be better trusted to score a massive total and on that count, it has to be Rajasthan at 1.910/11. Whereas they bat all the way down, Punjab's top and lower order is weak."

From looking down and out, Kings XI Punjab stormed back into the play-off race with a remarkable run chase last time. Paul Krishnamurty, however, reckons their momentum will be stalled by title-challenging Rajasthan...  

Kings XI Punjab vs Rajasthan Royals
Start Time: BST (11:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com

Kings XI Punjab

Despite rarely looking like play-off material, Kings XI are far from out of it. They'll need to win four of their last five matches, but that's exactly how many are at home, where their record so far is three from four. The latest victory needed a truly remarkable innings from David Miller, the third fastest century in T20 history, to turn around a game that Bangalore had comprehensively bossed until his arrival at the crease. Miller has been easily their star man but, to make further progress, he'll need better back-up.

Rajasthan Royals

Thanks primarily to a 100% home record, Rajasthan are almost in the play-offs. Using historical comparisons of the points table, one more win should be enough, two more from their last four games would be plenty. Monday's nine-wicket victory over Delhi was as facile as they come in IPL. All the top-three look in fine touch and with Brad Hodge coming in at six, this side has some huge totals in them. 
First Innings Runs
Just how many runs are enough at Mohali? The last two first innings totals of 185 and 190 were chased down, the latter with two overs to spare. Clearly the usual quote around 3.55/2 for 180 and over appeals, although as always, much depends which team bats first. I remain sceptical about Punjab's depth if Miller doesn't perform and would be more inclined towards backing unders when they bat first. If Rajasthan get first crack though, don't hesitate to back 180 and 200 plus because they certainly have enough depth.

Match odds

Everything we've seen so far at Mohali suggests this match will be high-scoring. Picking the winner therefore boils down to which side can be better trusted to score a massive total and on that count, it has to be Rajasthan at 1.910/11. Whereas they bat all the way down, Punjab's top and lower order is weak. Fast bowlers often thrive early on at Mohali, so I could see James Faulkner making swift inroads, again leaving Punjab reliant on Miller.

Top Punjab batsman

Miller has now top-scored in four of the last six Punjab's innings so could be due a failure. His partner for Monday's remarkable chase was Rajagopal Sathish so, having showed he's no slouch with the bat, could be worth following regularly around the 15.014/1 mark in a side prone to early collapse and often reliant on the middle order to save them.

Top Rajasthan batsman

It's easy to make a strong case for several Rajasthan batsmen, particularly Rahul Dravid, Ajinkya Rahane or Shane Watson, one of whom is likely to bat through most of the innings. On this occasion, I'll choose Watson for his ability to clear the boundaries, which is usually the criteria at Mohali.
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Back Rajasthan Royals @ 1.910/11

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IPL Betting: Delhi Daredevils vs Kings XI Punjab

"If the points table is any sort of guide, Kings XI must represent some trading value at 2.56/4 away to a side that lost it's first six matches...most sides trade shorter than this at some stage of T20 matches so Gilchrist and co must be the pick as a back-to-lay."

Back to lay Kings XI Punjab @ 2.56/4

Despite being among the lesser lights of this year's IPL, both Delhi and Punjab both pulled off impressive run chases to win their last match. Paul Krishnamurty argues that in this battle to retain momentum, the betting value lies in backing the outsiders... 

Kings XI Punjab vs Delhi Daredevils
Start Time: BST (15:30)
TV: Live on ITV and itv.com

Delhi Daredevils 

At last Delhi have a win under their belt, thanks to a magnificent burst from Virender Sehwag, that many of us doubted he could still produce. The market and most commentators felt Mumbai had set a stiff target of 162 in their match on Sunday, but in chasing it down with three overs to spare, Sehwag demonstrated that almost anything is possible when he clicks. Whether that was a one-off or the start of a renaissance, however, remains an open question. They remain an ageing team too dependent on big-hitters in their top order but at least confidence should be on the rise, 

Kings XI Punjab

There are obvious similarities between Punjab's fortunes and today's opponents. Like Delhi, they upset the odds on Sunday with a superb run chase, led by Mandeep Singh and David Miller. As with Sehwag, their pinch-hitting opener Adam Gilchrist looks well past his best. Nevertheless, a couple of unlikely victories have propelled Kings XI to fifth place in the points table and very much in the race for a play-off spot.

First Innings Runs

In the wake of Sunday's boundary-fest, there may well be a good betting angle for backing unders at Feroz Shah Kotla. During Mumbai's innings and the previous match here, this looked like a slow pitch on which anything above 150 would be competitive. That may well still turn out to be the case and Sehwag's remarkable innings the exception. Both of these sides have crumbled three times already this season, with Delhi recording totals of 128, 114 and 83; Punjab 138, 124 and 123. After Sunday, I expect 150+ will be available to lay around 1.758/11 and 140+ around 1.351/3. Both represent solid value.

Match odds

If the points table is any sort of guide, Kings XI must represent some trading value at 2.56/4 away to a side that lost it's first six matches. In response to one performance, almost wholly reliant on Sehwag, the odds are back to their pre-tournament levels, which seems like an over-reaction. I don't have strong faith in Punjab, but most sides trade shorter than this at some stage of T20 matches so Gilchrist and co must be the pick as a back-to-lay.

Top Delhi batsman

Delhi's fragile middle order wasn't tested against Mumbai and, until they demonstrate improvement, I'm still only prepared to consider the leading trio of Sehwag, captain Mahela Jayawardene and David Warner. Regardless of Sunday's heroics, Sehwag remains extremely unreliable so I'm sticking with Warner at around 4.57/2.

Top Punjab batsman

Against Pune, David Miller's fine unbeaten 80 proved there is more to the Punjab middle-order than David Hussey, who for once didn't even get a bat. The Aussie was relegated to number six in favour of big-hitters to try and beat a daunting run-rate, but will normally arrive at number four. Hussey remains their key batsman and always a fair bet around the 5.04/1 mark.

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Back Kings XI Punjab @ 2.56/4 (Back to lay)

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IPL Betting: Kings XI Punjab v Pune Warriors

Indian Premier League - IPL / Andrew Hughes / 06 May 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will David Miller get his chance?

"Pune look in total disarray, having lost seven in a row, with Yuvraj Singh proving ineffectual as a captain."

Its crunch time for both of these under performers. Sunday's second game is a battle of the basement as the ailing Punjab take on the wilting Warriors.

Punjab
Shaun Marsh and David Hussey have both disappointed in the Punjab middle order so surely its time for South African youngster David Miller to get a go. And how long will they persist with the ineffective Piyush Chawla?

Pune
Former Indian captain Sourav Ganguly has joined the Pune squad and is available. He could slot in at 3 or 4 and Pune may also try giving Callum Ferguson a game, possibly at the expense of Graeme Smith.

Match Odds
Punjab are in the marginally better position going into this game, but whichever team loses here will find it all but impossible to make the play offs. It is hard to separate two teams full of underperforming players. Pune look in total disarray, having lost seven in a row, with Yuvraj Singh proving ineffectual as a captain. With home advantage, Punjab are the better option at [2.06]

Highest Individual Score
Both the games at this ground so far have been high scoring affairs and we can capitalise by backing 'Over 68.5' in the Highest Individual Score market at [2.0] or better.

Best Bet

Andrew Hughes says: Back Punjab to beat Pune @ 2.06

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IPL Betting: Kolkata Knight Riders v Kings XI Punjab

Indian Premier League - IPL / Richard O’Hagan / 29 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

Jacques Kallis would love nothing better than to be wearing the Orange Cap at the end of the tournament

"Punjab have been so reliant upon their top three that they could be in severe trouble if Brett Lee and Lakshmipathy Balaji remove two of Valthaty, Adam Gilchrist and Shaun Marsh early on. Pick Kolkata for the win at [1.78]."

With Kolkata second in the table, and Punjab sixth (but having played up to three games less than any other side) this is a fascinating match-up between two teams who should be in play-off contention at the end of the IPL season.

Kolkata

The Knight Riders might have a 4-3 record, but two of those defeats were narrow ones and only their loss to Bangalore can be considered a significant defeat. Gautam Gambhir has proved to be a shrewd captain as well as scoring runs consistently and will be a big factor for them.

Punjab

Kings XI have a 3-2 record from their five matches, with batsman Paul Valthaty the surprise package of the entire tournament. He will be seeking the sixteen runs that he needs to regain the orange cap from Sachin Tendulkar.

Match Odds

Kolkata have an embarrassment of riches at the top of their order, and their biggest decision could be which overseas batsman to leave out from Kallis, Haddin, ten Doeschate and Morgan. Punjab have been so reliant upon their top three that they could be in severe trouble if Brett Lee and Lakshmipathy Balaji remove two of Valthaty, Adam Gilchrist and Shaun Marsh early on. Pick Kolkata for the win at [1.78]

Top Scorer odds

Valthaty isn't the only one seeking that orange cap in this game. Kallis is just 17 runs behind him and the South African is one of the most tenacious opponents around when he has a record in his sights. He should be available at around [4.5] to top score in this game.

Best Bet

Jacques Kallis to be top scorer at around [4.5]

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