2nd ODI Betting: England v New Zealand

"We would expect New Zealand to get the win if England's resources are once again stretched."

Recommended bet
New Zealand at 2.73n/a

Ed Hawkins says England are dreadful value at Southampton on Sunday with injury doubts exposing their lack of squad depth...

England v New Zealand
Start time: 10.45BST
TV: live on Sky Sports

England
England's resurgence as a one-day force has been impressive but they remain brittle if they lose key men. The loss of Stuart Broad and Steven Finn to injury - a bruised knee and sore shins respectively - exposed a lack of depth in the squad as replacements Chris Woakes and Jade Dernbach proved expensive. Still, they did not bat well, either. Posting 227 against a New Zealand attack which itself was depleted will have hit hopes of a succes in the Champions Trophy.

New Zealand
A typically gutsy, efficient display by the Kiwis at Lord's has given then edge in the three-match series. And they did it without wise man Daniel Vettori. Tim Southee and Nathan McCullum were superb with the ball, taking three and two wickets respectively at fewer than four an over. But it was Martin Guptill who stole the show. His 103 from 123 balls was a masterclass, particularly as New Zealand had found themselves in the depths of trouble at two wickets down for one run. Ross Taylor, with 54 from 77 balls, also impressed.

First-innings runs
The average score in 13 ODIs at the Rose Bowl (not including the hapless USA against Australia in 2004) is 245. In three of the last five you would have been comfortable winners going long of 260, however. In the eight day matches, there is no toss bias to speak of. England have played only twice there without the lights being on and have won both.

Match odds
New Zealand's five-wicket victory has not impressed the market. England remain short at 1.564/7 with the Kiwis as big as 2.73n/a. The rationale must be that England will return their fast-bowling big guns but we cannot be confident. Indeed, backing the hosts at such odds without knowing the line-up is lunacy. The selectors are concerned enough to have called up Boyd Rankin, the former Ireland seamer, and Alastair Cook, the captain, hinted strongly that Broad and Finn would be absent again. That makes New Zealand a stonking wager. Even if those two are fit, they have the nous to trade as favourites but we would expect them to get the win if England's resources are once again stretched. Man for man they are as good as England in that context. Perhaps better as they certainly have more inspiration in the batting. In Brendon McCullum and Taylor they have hitters which England lack.

Top England runscorer
Ian Bell and Eoin Morgan are the men to follow at this venue. Bell, who has top scored (albeit sharing honours last time out) on his previous two visits, has 392 runs in six innings at an average of 78. Morgan has 301 in five at more than 100. Both men have scored two centuries. Bell will probably go off at 4.507/2 and Morgan 6.005/1.

Top New Zealand runscorer
Guptill should go off favourite following his super show at Lord's and it is a market with narrow options after Luke Ronchi and Kane Williamson both recorded ducks at Nos 1 and 3. Brendon McCullum will be well backed but at No 6 he is no value.

Recommended bets
New Zealand at 2.73n/a
I Bell top England bat at 4.507/2

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Cricket Betting: New Zealand no match for England's strength in depth

"England should be strong enough to overcome New Zealand in all three formats. The Black Caps won the limited overs series in South Africa, but it was against a side weakened at times by suspension and injury, neither of which are concerns for England."

England's cricket team have arrived in Auckland ahead of their series against New Zealand. Richard O'Hagan takes a look at the make-up of the squads and at how the tour might pan out.

If you want some insight into the craziness of the international cricket schedule, consider this: England have just played a one day series in India while New Zealand finished a similar series in South Africa on Friday. Now both have trekked all of the way down to the Land of the Long White Cloud to face each other. That's a lot of air miles.

There were few surprises in the squads announced by England. Stuart Broad is restored to full fitness and to all three squads. Graeme Swann, Jonny Bairstow and Jonathan Trott come back after their breaks from the one day game. Eoin Morgan and Samit Patel having both failed in the number six slot in the Test side, and Joe Root having been a success there, it was obvious who was going to be picked and who wasn't.

There are a couple of interesting tweaks, though. Chris Woakes replaces Tim Bresnan, whose Test bowling average since elbow surgery a year ago is now over 55 and who, it has been decided, will remain in England to have the problem looked at again. Craig Kieswetter finally loses hold of the one day wicket-keeping spot, not to Matt Prior but to Jos Buttler. New Zealand will see that as an area of potential weakness, because Buttler's record in both ODIs and T20Is is inferior to Kieswetter's in every way. 

The most interesting change came two days after the squads were announced, when left arm spinner Danny Briggs had to pull out of the tour with injury. Rather than bring in another specialist spinner, the selectors simply added Root to the T20 squad, relying upon his developing off-spin despite his failure to take a wicket in India. Spin will play less of a role in New Zealand but the extra batting strength that Root will also provide might make it hard for the likes of Bairstow to find their way back into the matchday 11.

Even with these changes England should be strong enough to overcome New Zealand in all three formats. The Black Caps won the limited overs series in South Africa, but it was against a side weakened at times by suspension and injury, neither of which are concerns for England. They may well scrape one of the three games, which makes a 2-1 England win at around 3.02/1 look the best bet. 

In the Test series they looked horribly out of their depth, will again be missing former captain Daniel Vettori and at 3.02/1 a 3-0 series win for England looks a good bet indeed.

Recommended Bet
Back England at around 3.02/1 to win the ODI series 2-1

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Rugby Championship Match Pack: New Zealand v Australia

I cannot think of a more overrated player in world rugby than Cooper at the moment.

Recommended Bet
1pt New Zealand to win by 1-12.5 points at 3.39/4

Fresh from last week's defeat, Australia face a fearsome proposition when they take on the world champions on Saturday. The absence of David Pocock is a big blow to the Wallabies, says Geoffrey Riddle...

New Zealand v Australia, Saturday 08:45

• New Zealand have not lost to Australia in Auckland since 1986.

• New Zealand made eight clean breaks last week and beat defenders twice as many times as the Wallabies.

• The last time the two played there was in the Rugby World Cup semi-final. New Zealand were without Dan Carter and Australia played with David Pocock. The Wallabies lost 20-6.

• Not only have Australia lost captain and key openside flanker David Pockock, but Sekope Kepu, the tighthead prop, also misses out with a knee injury.

• There will be a completely different head-to-head on that side of the scrum as Tony Woodock, the All Black loosehead, also misses out and has been replaced by Wyatt Crockett.

• With Pocock leading Australia last week they still leaked more turnovers than New Zealand.

Match Preview

Australia endured the ignominy of failing to register a bonus point against New Zealand last week and must dust themselves off to face the world's best side in Auckland on Saturday. The Wallabies were within a score until Dan Carter slotted a penalty to take the score to 27-19 in Sydney.

The return leg, which sees the Bledisloe Cup in danger of remaining in All Black hands for a total of ten years, looks a fearsome proposition for Australia, who will be without their best player.

David Pocock was crucial to Australia's effort of keeping tabs on their trans-Tasman rivals last week but the inspirational skipper is injured and is in danger of missing the autumn internationals. Pocock very much helped Australia to obtain decent ball, which if they had not wasted with several unforced errors the scoreboard may well have had a different complexion.

His absence will be even more keenly felt by the side after coach Robbie Deans decided to hand Quade Cooper a recall. I cannot think of a more overrated player in world rugby than Cooper at the moment. At the World Cup he was a real hindrance to the Wallaby cause. He needed to be shunted out to fullback so that he could be shielded from heavy traffic. In professional rugby there is simply no excuse for not being able to tackle. Even Charlie Hodgson is finally learning the art. Tackling has always been about technique and guts, which Cooper clearly has little of either.

What's more, at the World Cup even his fleet of foot and sleight of hand failed him. Going into the semi-final against New Zealand he had made just two line breaks in 400 minutes of play. Quite what we are to expect, after all of this time off from international rugby, is anyone's guess. My personal belief is not very much against the All Blacks. Cooper can have his sublime moments going forward, but that is usually when Pocock is in the ascendancy and his pack provide good, quick, clean ball. With Australia's star openside very much coming off second best last week against Richie McCaw and Co, the Wallabies have little hope of being on the front foot throughout the 80 minutes.

It's all too easy to assume, however, that just because Australia are hamstrung at the breakdown, and in defence through the No.10 channel, they are immediately in line for a thrashing. Sure, Dan Carter was not around when New Zealand prevailed in the World Cup semi-final but even with the Cantabrian it is questionable whether the home side should be over two converted tries better at kick-off.

New Zealand were not profitable to back on handicaps of this size at home in the Tri-Nations and Australia may well be up against it, but not as much as the odds-makers might have you believe.

Recommended Bet
1pt New Zealand to win by 1-12.5 points at 3.39/4

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Rugby World Cup Betting: Argentina to contain New Zealand

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 08 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Doubts about Richie McCaw's fitness remain

"McCaw's injury suggest he may not make it through to the final... "

Geoffrey Riddle marvels at the handicap lines available on the last quarter-final of the weekend. With key men ailing and their defence not as strong as it could be, will New Zealand struggle against Argentina?

New Zealand v Argentina, Sunday 08:30 (ITV1)

Argentina may not be of the same ability as the dynamic and brave squad that finished third four years ago but they rate a solid handicap wager to keep tabs on the All Blacks in their quarter-final at Eden Park.

The handicap start they have been given is quite extraordinary. At between 27-29 points it represents a victory of around four converted tries. In the last four tournaments only South Africa's 42-14 win over Samoa in 1995 has featured a team scoring four tries more than the opposition in the knockout stages. That 28-point margin is also the largest out of any knockout match during that period. It illustrates, of course, that New Zealand could win by this margin, but looking at those statistics, it seems unlikely.

The All Blacks naturally have the advantage of their Auckland fortress, and under Graham Henry they have outscored 15 teams by four tries or more, including sides such as South Africa, France and the British and Irish Lions in 2005.

Henry, however, does not have access to his best players and without Dan Carter it is questionable whether the All Blacks ever represent value in the handicap market. Henry has been forced to chop and change his side after injuries to Israel Dagg, Richard Kahui and Zac Guilford, the team's top tryscorers in the tournament.

Sonny Bill Williams gets his first start on the wing, but Keiren Read and Richie McCaw both take their places in the back row despite ongoing injury concerns. The rumours about McCaw's injury suggest he may not make it through to the final should the All Blacks reach that far. It is not an ideal situation, and hardly inspires confidence if you need a thumping win.

Argentina have one of the best defensive records in the tournament, having conceded 40 points. England and Scotland barely got near their tryline, and it was only a flash of brilliance from Ben Youngs that sealed England's victory against the Pumas.

New Zealand's penetration is far in excess of those two sides but going forward the All Blacks have neglected their defensive duties in the Pool stages.

All previous World Cups winners were amongst the top five defensive teams in the tournament, but Zealand have the second-worst defensive record out of the eight teams in the knockout stage behind France. They conceded only four tries when they lifted the Webb Ellis Trophy for the first and only time in 1987, and yet already they have leaked six.

It gives Santiago Phelan's side a prayer of crossing the tryline. Although Felipe Contepomi has been one of the worst kickers at goal in the past two World Cups, six of the eight underdogs were handicap winners.

It suggests that the early round of the knockout stages are more competitive that bookmakers either believe, or think they can get away with and it is time to take advantage of this.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts Argentina +28 pts
1pt New Zealand by 16-20
1pt New Zealand by 21-25

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Martin Johnson has made some big changes for Saturday's match in Paris but could France buckle under the pressure as they pursue a Grand Slam? Geoffrey Riddle selects the best bets....

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World Cup Betting: New Zealand v Pakistan

Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 07 March 2011 / Leave a Comment

Shahid Afridi is the dangerman

"New Zealand are expected to keep faith with the side that hammered Zimbabwe by 10 wickets, meaning there is still no room for allrounder Jacob Oram"

Ed Hawkins looks ahead to the Group A contest in Pallekele on Tuesday. Follow him on Twitter here for in-running recommendations

Team news
Pakistan, who overcame a typical wobble against Canada, have three wins from three and are expected to comfortably deal with New Zealand.

There are issues to resolve, however and we should not hold our breath that they come up with an answer. Openers Mohammad Hafeez and Ahmed Shehzad are the weak links and coach Waqar Younis has identified that.

The problem is that Pakistan have not had a decent opening pair for years so they may as well let the duo get on with it and hope for the best.

Shoaib Akhtar and Abdur Rehman, who both missed the win over Canada, could return in place of Wahab Riaz and Saeed Ajmal respectively.

New Zealand are expected to keep faith with the side that hammered Zimbabwe by 10 wickets, meaning there is still no room for allrounder Jacob Oram.

Venue and conditions
The Pallekele stadium, in Kandy, is a new ground and only one match has been played there, the Test between Sri Lanka and West Indies at the end of last year which was badly affected by the weather. However, six of the eight wickets to fall went to the spinners but one could be charged with trying to read too much into that. The forecast is for sunny spells.

Match odds
This column does not rate [2.52] New Zealand in the least and anyone taking the [1.64] have a perfectly good wager. Pakistan have played New Zealand seven times in World Cups and lost only once. Of more relevance is the 3-2 victory over the Kiwis in an ODI series before the tournament began.

Doubts persist about New Zealand's batting when they come against a proper side and Shahid Afridi's brand of spin should sorely test them. He leads the wickets tally with 14 victims from three matches. He is also fifth in the overall economy rate with 2.60 runs per over from his 28 overs so far.

Top batsman - New Zealand
Martin Guptill (with 135 runs so far) and Brendon McCullum (118 runs) will have to provide a convincing opening start. The pair are [4.70] and [4.50] respectively for top-bat honours. Scott Styris is probably underrated at [9.60] while Daniel Vettori comes under Any Other at a poor value [4.40]

Top batsman - Pakistan
Misbah-ul-Haq (185 runs), Umar Akmal (129) and Younus Khan (128) have solid form behind them.

Featured market
Hafeez and Shehzad average just 25 together for the first wicket in their eight innings. If you can lay 30 runs or more at [3.00] then take it.

Best bet: lay Pakistan opening partnership for 30 or more at [3.00]

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Cricket World Cup Betting: Kenya v New Zealand

Match Previews / Ed Hawkins / 19 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Daniel Vettori leads the Kiwis

"Back Kenya at the odds in the anticipation they get a foothold and lay off for three or more points"

Ed Hawkins reckons the Kiwis will not have it all their own way against Kenya when the sides meet in Chennai early on Sunday

London start time: 04.00

Team news
New Zealand's preparation for their opening match have been hampered by the potential loss of offspinner Nathan McCullum. He has been in hospital with a high fever.

McCullum will be a big loss to the Kiwis. He has established himself as the second spinner behind Daniel Vettori. Luke Woodcock, a left-arm spinner with only two ODIs to his name, is the probable replacement.

Kenya look to have been in decent touch in the warm-ups. They beat Afghanistan, Ireland, looked capable against West Indies before losing
to Netherlands by two wickets. Veteran Steve Tikolo smashed a ton versus Afghanistan.

Venue and conditions
There have been five ODIs completed at the Chidambaram stadium in Chennai since 2000. During that period the average first-innings score is 251. New Zealand, however, were bowled out for just 103 there against India at the end of last year. Seven of the wickets fell to spinners.

This should favour Vettori, although Kenya's Shem Ngoche, a slow left-armer, has a good economy rate in the last 12 months while offie Jimmy Kamande took three wickets in the warm-up against Afghanistan.

Match odds
New Zealand are [1.08] to get their campaign off to a good start. Kenya are [11.00]. It doesn't take a genius to work out the Kiwis are the better side. But will they prove to be the better side throughout a potential 100 overs? We don't think so.

This is one of the most limited sides New Zealand have ever sent to a World Cup. They have suffered 13 losses in their last 15, including a 0-9 record in India and Bangladesh.

Back Kenya at the odds in the anticipation they get a foothold and lay off for three or more points. If New Zealand bat first, it might pay to wait until after the powerplay overs because they are likely to lengthen quickly, just as Bangladesh did on day one.

Top batsman - Kenya
Collins Obuya is Kenya's top runscorer in the last 12 months. He used to be known as a specialist legspinner but has reinvented himself. He is priced at [3.00] under Any Other. Tikolo remains their best batsman, though, and his far better value at [4.00]

Top batsman - New Zealand
Brendon McCullum, at [3.50] and Martin Guptill, at [3.00] are the Kiwi openers and they will be expected to get them off to a quick start.

Other featured market
McCullum is [2.18] to score a 50.

Best bet: Back Kenya at [11.00] to trade

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