Match Previews 
/ Geoffrey Riddle / 08 October 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Doubts about Richie McCaw's fitness remain
"McCaw's injury suggest he may not make it through to the final... "
Geoffrey Riddle marvels at the handicap lines available on the last quarter-final of the weekend. With key men ailing and their defence not as strong as it could be, will New Zealand struggle against Argentina?
New Zealand v Argentina, Sunday 08:30 (ITV1)
Argentina may not be of the same ability as the dynamic and brave squad that finished third four years ago but they rate a solid handicap wager to keep tabs on the All Blacks in their quarter-final at Eden Park.
The handicap start they have been given is quite extraordinary. At between 27-29 points it represents a victory of around four converted tries. In the last four tournaments only South Africa's 42-14 win over Samoa in 1995 has featured a team scoring four tries more than the opposition in the knockout stages. That 28-point margin is also the largest out of any knockout match during that period. It illustrates, of course, that New Zealand could win by this margin, but looking at those statistics, it seems unlikely.
The All Blacks naturally have the advantage of their Auckland fortress, and under Graham Henry they have outscored 15 teams by four tries or more, including sides such as South Africa, France and the British and Irish Lions in 2005.
Henry, however, does not have access to his best players and without Dan Carter it is questionable whether the All Blacks ever represent value in the handicap market. Henry has been forced to chop and change his side after injuries to Israel Dagg, Richard Kahui and Zac Guilford, the team's top tryscorers in the tournament.
Sonny Bill Williams gets his first start on the wing, but Keiren Read and Richie McCaw both take their places in the back row despite ongoing injury concerns. The rumours about McCaw's injury suggest he may not make it through to the final should the All Blacks reach that far. It is not an ideal situation, and hardly inspires confidence if you need a thumping win.
Argentina have one of the best defensive records in the tournament, having conceded 40 points. England and Scotland barely got near their tryline, and it was only a flash of brilliance from Ben Youngs that sealed England's victory against the Pumas.
New Zealand's penetration is far in excess of those two sides but going forward the All Blacks have neglected their defensive duties in the Pool stages.
All previous World Cups winners were amongst the top five defensive teams in the tournament, but Zealand have the second-worst defensive record out of the eight teams in the knockout stage behind France. They conceded only four tries when they lifted the Webb Ellis Trophy for the first and only time in 1987, and yet already they have leaked six.
It gives Santiago Phelan's side a prayer of crossing the tryline. Although Felipe Contepomi has been one of the worst kickers at goal in the past two World Cups, six of the eight underdogs were handicap winners.
It suggests that the early round of the knockout stages are more competitive that bookmakers either believe, or think they can get away with and it is time to take advantage of this.
Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts Argentina +28 pts
1pt New Zealand by 16-20
1pt New Zealand by 21-25
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