Rugby Championship Match Pack: Argentina v South Africa

South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

It should be great occasion in Mendoz on Saturday and Argentina thoroughly deserve their Rugby Championship status. However, whether they can produce a performance that will please their fans is another matter, says Geoffrey Riddle.

Argentina v South Africa, Saturday 20:10

• At the World Cup Argentina played three teams ranked inside the world's top ten: England, Scotland and New Zealand. They scored 35 points in those three matches.

• Subsequently they have played Italy, France twice and South Africa scoring 76 points in those four matches.

• Argentina did not manage to beat any defenders last week in the 27-6 loss to South Africa. What's more they only had 37 per cent territory.

• In contrast, South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.

• In those nine matches South Africa have conceded only eight tries, three of which were in the 36-27 defeat of England in Johannesburg in June.

• Santiago Phelan made just one change to the side that lost 27-6 last week to the Springboks. Martin Rodriguez, the Stade Francais player, replaced Luca Gonzalez Amorosino at fullback but then it was revealed that Juan Martin Hernandez suffered a torn leg muscle in a brutal training session.

• South Africa have some serious injury worries with Pierre Spies ruled out with a broken thumb, while Bryan Habana and Andries Bekker rolled their ankles and missed trainer earlier this week.

Match Preview

Oh to be in Mendoza this weekend for Argentina's debut Test at home against South Africa in the Rugby Championship. Any rugby fan worth his salt and a few thousand quid in the bank should consider it as it promises to be a wonderful occasion... on the pitch.

The home side fully deserve this historic Test after all of the sweat, tears and blood shed by previous Pumas players to get Argentina admitted to the sacred Southern Hemisphere clique but, as mentioned in last week's column, Argentina are barely better than Scotland right now.

As far as statistics go there is little to go on as teams as good as South Africa rarely make it to the depths of South America. What we can deduce, however, is that when teams as good as the Springboks take on teams as bad as Argentina they should be priced as favourites by around six to nine points, which at 8.5 is where Betfair have placed their handicap line.

Where there could be room for manoeuvre, however, is in the total points markets. According to my ratings, matches such as this should have a total points spread of around 41-44, but that is before you take into account Argentina's lamentable efforts to score not only last week, but going back 12 months.

Argentina simply cannot keep the scoreboard ticking over against the better teams. Currently their game plan and their lack of match practice at the highest level results in a lack of serious penetration.

Of course, they have some sublime players, but until the competition wears on, and provided they still have their wonderful spirit and outlook, that simply won't change.

Argentina of course have played only a handful of serious matches in 2012 and although they should improve from last week's run-out they should struggle to accumulate points, let alone cross the whitewash, especially without Hernandez.

Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6

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Rugby Championship Match Pack: New Zealand v Australia

I cannot think of a more overrated player in world rugby than Cooper at the moment.

Recommended Bet
1pt New Zealand to win by 1-12.5 points at 3.39/4

Fresh from last week's defeat, Australia face a fearsome proposition when they take on the world champions on Saturday. The absence of David Pocock is a big blow to the Wallabies, says Geoffrey Riddle...

New Zealand v Australia, Saturday 08:45

• New Zealand have not lost to Australia in Auckland since 1986.

• New Zealand made eight clean breaks last week and beat defenders twice as many times as the Wallabies.

• The last time the two played there was in the Rugby World Cup semi-final. New Zealand were without Dan Carter and Australia played with David Pocock. The Wallabies lost 20-6.

• Not only have Australia lost captain and key openside flanker David Pockock, but Sekope Kepu, the tighthead prop, also misses out with a knee injury.

• There will be a completely different head-to-head on that side of the scrum as Tony Woodock, the All Black loosehead, also misses out and has been replaced by Wyatt Crockett.

• With Pocock leading Australia last week they still leaked more turnovers than New Zealand.

Match Preview

Australia endured the ignominy of failing to register a bonus point against New Zealand last week and must dust themselves off to face the world's best side in Auckland on Saturday. The Wallabies were within a score until Dan Carter slotted a penalty to take the score to 27-19 in Sydney.

The return leg, which sees the Bledisloe Cup in danger of remaining in All Black hands for a total of ten years, looks a fearsome proposition for Australia, who will be without their best player.

David Pocock was crucial to Australia's effort of keeping tabs on their trans-Tasman rivals last week but the inspirational skipper is injured and is in danger of missing the autumn internationals. Pocock very much helped Australia to obtain decent ball, which if they had not wasted with several unforced errors the scoreboard may well have had a different complexion.

His absence will be even more keenly felt by the side after coach Robbie Deans decided to hand Quade Cooper a recall. I cannot think of a more overrated player in world rugby than Cooper at the moment. At the World Cup he was a real hindrance to the Wallaby cause. He needed to be shunted out to fullback so that he could be shielded from heavy traffic. In professional rugby there is simply no excuse for not being able to tackle. Even Charlie Hodgson is finally learning the art. Tackling has always been about technique and guts, which Cooper clearly has little of either.

What's more, at the World Cup even his fleet of foot and sleight of hand failed him. Going into the semi-final against New Zealand he had made just two line breaks in 400 minutes of play. Quite what we are to expect, after all of this time off from international rugby, is anyone's guess. My personal belief is not very much against the All Blacks. Cooper can have his sublime moments going forward, but that is usually when Pocock is in the ascendancy and his pack provide good, quick, clean ball. With Australia's star openside very much coming off second best last week against Richie McCaw and Co, the Wallabies have little hope of being on the front foot throughout the 80 minutes.

It's all too easy to assume, however, that just because Australia are hamstrung at the breakdown, and in defence through the No.10 channel, they are immediately in line for a thrashing. Sure, Dan Carter was not around when New Zealand prevailed in the World Cup semi-final but even with the Cantabrian it is questionable whether the home side should be over two converted tries better at kick-off.

New Zealand were not profitable to back on handicaps of this size at home in the Tri-Nations and Australia may well be up against it, but not as much as the odds-makers might have you believe.

Recommended Bet
1pt New Zealand to win by 1-12.5 points at 3.39/4

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Rugby World Cup Results: Australia win Bronze

Rugby World Cup / Dan Thomas / 21 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Ben McCalman scores what proved to be the winning try for Australia

"Wales will go home with their heads held high after some magnificent performances during the tournament, but few will argue that Australia deserved to win the Bronze Final."

It was another brave performance from Wales, but Australia's class shined through in the second half meaning a last minute try and conversion for Warren Gatland's men was futile....

Wales will go home with their heads held high after some magnificent performances during the tournament, but few will argue that Australia deserved to win the Bronze Final, justifying their pre-match price as favourites [1.68].

In a relatively quiet first half, the Wallabies went 7-0 up courtesy of a Berrick Barnes try (converted by James O'Connor), before James Hook reduced the arrears with a penalty, leaving the half-time deficit at four.

The second half was a livelier affair, with Shane Williams putting the Welsh in the lead early on after showing some nifty football skills, only for two O'Connor penalties and a Barnes drop goal to put Australia in control.

The Wallabies then put the game beyond doubt when Ben McCalman scored a converted try taking the score to 21-11.

However, there was a sting in the tail for those on handicap bets as Leigh Halfpenny went over the line in the 82nd minute and Stephen Jones converted reducing the winning margin to three.

Wales (+5.5) was matched at a high of [11.0] having been [1.77] at kick-off.

Will Greenwood has been bowled over by New Zealand's excellence and believes the men in black will send the host nation into raptures with a long-awaited World Cup final victory...

Welsh hearts were broken this breakfast time as their skipper was sent off and three penalties from the boot of Morgan Parra proved enough as the French march on....

Antipodean rivals are the market leaders as final four are revealed...

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Rugby World Cup Betting: Boks can boss breakdown battle

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 08 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Du Preez and Brussow will be vital for South Africa

"No players will have a greater say in who wins this match than the two breakaways."

Geoffrey Riddle had an excellent Pool stage, putting up 37 selections and registering 25 winners. Now he's relishing a fierce back row battle on Sunday morning as Australia take on the defending champions...

South Africa v Australia, Sunday 06:00 (ITV1)

If there is one aspect of South Africa's quarter-final against Australia in Wellington that is crucial to the outcome on Sunday it is the breakdown.

Richie McCaw now boasts 100 caps but snapping on the heels of the most effective fetcher there has ever been is the Springbok Heinrich Brussow and his opposite number, David Pocock.

Out of the 30 men who will take to the turf in the 'Cake Tin' there are no players who will have a greater say in who wins this match than the two breakaways.

Rocky Elsom, the Wallaby and former Leinster No 8, was in no doubt this week that the loose exchanges would decide which team progressed to the semis.

"Every inch of ascendancy you can gain there at the breakdown is crucial," he said ahead of the showdown at Wellington Regional Stadium. "Any team that gets the dominance at the breakdown, they're going to provide front-foot ball for their attack and that is an enormous part of the game."

Without Pocock greasing the wheels, the Wallaby attacking machine grinds to a comparative halt. He did not play in the defeat against Ireland, and when he was taken off at half-time against Russia the Tri-Nations champions won the second half only 21-17.

Quade Cooper, the Wallaby fly-half, thrives on quick ball. His box of tricks can conjure up all sorts of attacking schemes when given space and time but close him down off slow ball and he is ineffective.

South Africa use quick ball in a different manner and when their possession is slowed down by the opposition they are one of the better teams in world rugby at either going through the phases by smashing their way up field, or using the boot of Morne Steyn to obtain field position.

Brussow's role therefore will be to make Pocock's life a misery at every breakdown for the full 80 minutes. Both sides have superbly balanced back rows, but where South Africa have an advantage is that Bakkies Botha has been injured and is replaced by Danie Rossouw. The Bulls utility forward is effectively a fourth member of the back row, having played over half of his matches at either flanker or No 8.

When Brussouw clashed with Pocock in Durban during the Tri-Nations it was honours even, despite Australia scoring a rare victory on South African soil. It was Brussouw's first start for almost two years and when he had dusted off the cobwebs a week later he took New Zealand to the cleaners. He contributed to an All Blacks turnover tally of 23, as an under-strength All Blacks side were downed 18-5. Once again, no McCaw, no win.

That success in Durban was Australia's fifth victory in the past six encounters between the teams, which shows why layers on Betfair make the Tri-Nations champions the [2.0] favourites. That match was one of the rare moments in the past two years that Peter de Villiers, the South Africa coach, had all his players at his disposal. Fourie du Preez was another player who had returned after a two-year injury break but the scrum-half is now playing at the level to which all nines aspire.

With Du Preez in the lynchpin position and feeding Morne Steyn, the Springbok bulldozer moves up a gear. Steyn may not have his namesake Francois playing outside him due to a shoulder injury but Jean de Villiers is no mean substitute. With Patrick Lambie coming into the line from full-back and the ever-hungry Bryan Habana lurking out wide, the Springboks have an attacking edge, also.

Australia have scored the first try of the match in the last six encounters and the first points of the match in eight of the last ten against South Africa. They will start at a breath-taking speed and try to maintain their lead into half-time and beyond. They are not the fittest team, however, and South Africa's greater experience and composure under pressure should be enough to progress to a meeting with the hosts in Auckland.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts South Africa at [2.14]

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Rugby World Cup Betting: Argentina to contain New Zealand

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 08 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Doubts about Richie McCaw's fitness remain

"McCaw's injury suggest he may not make it through to the final... "

Geoffrey Riddle marvels at the handicap lines available on the last quarter-final of the weekend. With key men ailing and their defence not as strong as it could be, will New Zealand struggle against Argentina?

New Zealand v Argentina, Sunday 08:30 (ITV1)

Argentina may not be of the same ability as the dynamic and brave squad that finished third four years ago but they rate a solid handicap wager to keep tabs on the All Blacks in their quarter-final at Eden Park.

The handicap start they have been given is quite extraordinary. At between 27-29 points it represents a victory of around four converted tries. In the last four tournaments only South Africa's 42-14 win over Samoa in 1995 has featured a team scoring four tries more than the opposition in the knockout stages. That 28-point margin is also the largest out of any knockout match during that period. It illustrates, of course, that New Zealand could win by this margin, but looking at those statistics, it seems unlikely.

The All Blacks naturally have the advantage of their Auckland fortress, and under Graham Henry they have outscored 15 teams by four tries or more, including sides such as South Africa, France and the British and Irish Lions in 2005.

Henry, however, does not have access to his best players and without Dan Carter it is questionable whether the All Blacks ever represent value in the handicap market. Henry has been forced to chop and change his side after injuries to Israel Dagg, Richard Kahui and Zac Guilford, the team's top tryscorers in the tournament.

Sonny Bill Williams gets his first start on the wing, but Keiren Read and Richie McCaw both take their places in the back row despite ongoing injury concerns. The rumours about McCaw's injury suggest he may not make it through to the final should the All Blacks reach that far. It is not an ideal situation, and hardly inspires confidence if you need a thumping win.

Argentina have one of the best defensive records in the tournament, having conceded 40 points. England and Scotland barely got near their tryline, and it was only a flash of brilliance from Ben Youngs that sealed England's victory against the Pumas.

New Zealand's penetration is far in excess of those two sides but going forward the All Blacks have neglected their defensive duties in the Pool stages.

All previous World Cups winners were amongst the top five defensive teams in the tournament, but Zealand have the second-worst defensive record out of the eight teams in the knockout stage behind France. They conceded only four tries when they lifted the Webb Ellis Trophy for the first and only time in 1987, and yet already they have leaked six.

It gives Santiago Phelan's side a prayer of crossing the tryline. Although Felipe Contepomi has been one of the worst kickers at goal in the past two World Cups, six of the eight underdogs were handicap winners.

It suggests that the early round of the knockout stages are more competitive that bookmakers either believe, or think they can get away with and it is time to take advantage of this.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts Argentina +28 pts
1pt New Zealand by 16-20
1pt New Zealand by 21-25

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Rugby World Cup: Pumas defence should hold firm against Georgia

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Argentina look set for the knockout stages

"Now that England have beaten Scotland, Argentina only need a point to progress... "

Argentina are only a point away from the quarter-finals as they face Georgia in a match that Geoffrey Riddle expects to be dominated by defence...

Argentina v Georgia, Sunday 01:00 (ITV1)

Argentina

In all four of their matches in 2011 the Pumas have scored the first points of the match.

They have scored the first points of the second half in all of their three matches at the World Cup, also.

Argentina have missed 20 shots at goal in their four matches this year - the worst strike-rate of all the teams in the tournament

Argentina's lineout fell apart against Scotland. The Pumas lost four of their 12.

Georgia

Georgia have been handicap winners on the main line in all three of their matches during this Rugby World Cup.

Georgia's starting VX have 563 caps between them - the most experienced side the Lelos have fielded at a World Cup.

Match stats

Georgia have named Toulon prop David Zirakashvili in an effort to combat the Pumas' giant front row, although he faces a late fitness test due to a respiratory infection. Record try scorer, Mamuka Gorgodze lines up at flanker but Merab Kvirkashvili, who scored 17 points against Romania on Wednesday is on the bench.

Santiago Phelan has named an under-strength side. He has made five changes to the side that defeated Scotland last weekend.

Preview

Argentina's defence is one of the most watertight in the tournament. Scotland never looked even close to crossing the whitewash when the two teams clashed last weekend and only a sublime piece of inspiration from scrum-half Ben Youngs saw England touch down.

How Romania managed to score a try against the Pumas is anyone's guess and the Oaks are a far more dynamic team going forward than Georgia.

Now that England have beaten Scotland, Argentina only need a point to progress to the knockout stage. Santiago Phelan has named an under-strength Pumas side and although there is a danger the game could open up both teams have proud and effective defences which should hold firm.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan):
2pts Back under 41.5 total match points

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Rugby World Cup: All Black Dagg can boost try bid against Canada

/ Geoffrey Riddle / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Is Dagg a top try contender?

"Kieran Read, the No 8, has returned to fitness and will start his first Rugby World Cup match."

Even without their two talismen, New Zealand's form is ominous for everyone else and they should make hay against Canada, says Geoffrey Riddle.

New Zealand v Canada, Sunday 03:30 (ITV1)

New Zealand

New Zealand have opened the scoring in their last two matches with a try.

The All Blacks have scored the first match try in eight of their last nine fixtures.

Canada

Canada have scored the first points of the match in all three of their World Cup fixtures.

They also scored the first try of the match against Japan and Tonga. The first try in their three matches has come before the 12th minute.

Canada have missed eight kicks at goal.

All four tries Canada conceded against France were scored by back three players. Vincent Clerc scored a hat-trick of tries and Damien Traille was playing at full-back.

Prop Hubert Buydens made 15 tackles against France and centre Ryan Smith made 14 in the same match. In the 25-20 victory over Tonga Jamie Cudmore made 23 tackles, Adam Kleeberger made 14 tackles and Jebb Sinclair put in 10 - almost half of the team total.

Match stats

Dan Carter and Richie McCaw were named in the starting XV but after injuries to both, they're replaced by Colin Slade and Victor Vito respectively. Kieran Read, the No 8, has returned to fitness and will start his first Rugby World Cup match.

Kieren Crowley, the Canada coach, has once again named the best side available to him. He has been forced to replace James Pritchard, the team's kicker, with Conor Trainor, due to a bang to the head. Canada have five players in their squad who will have not played a match at the tournament.

Preview

Unfortunately for the Canadians, the All Blacks are strong where they are weak. The Canucks like to impose themselves physically on teams and keep play narrow by tackling anything that moves.

Although their back row is robust, they do not create turnover ball, and if anything, leak it and as such they are prone to counter-attacks by wings and fullbacks joining the line.

Canada have been given a ray of hope after Richie McCaw and Dan Carter pulled out, which means turnover possession will be a little slower for the All Blacks and will be used a little less precisely by Colin Slade, Carter's replacement.

With New Zealand looking in ominous form ahead of the knockout stages it may be worth a small investment in Israel Dagg to be the top tournament tryscorer. Dagg, who recovered from a deep thigh bruise, has collected four tries, two behind Chris Ashton after his touchdown against Scotland. Dagg could be the prime beneficiary of Sonny Bill Williams's offloading game and New Zealand should have the easiest quarter-final against Argentina. Either that, or lay Ashton at around [3.0].

Recommended investment: (1-5pt staking plan)
2pts I Dagg top tournament tryscorer at around [5.0]

Even without their two talismen, New Zealand's form is ominous for everyone else and they should make hay against Canada, says Geoffrey Riddle....

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Argentina are only a point away from the quarter-finals as they face Georgia in a match that Geoffrey Riddle expects to be dominated by defence......

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Rugby World Cup Betting: Back Wales to run riot against Fiji

Match Previews / Geoffrey Riddle / 01 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Adam Jones lines up in Wales formidable front row

"Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones will turn the screw up front, while Sam Warburton, Ryan Jones and Toby Faletau will slow ball down to limit the damage from Fiji's backs."

The Fijians have nothing to play for and the Welsh are finding form. So can the Dragon cover a handicap? Geoffrey Riddle provides the answer.

Wales v Fiji, Sunday 06:00 (ITV1)

Wales

Warren Gatland's men have been winners on the main match handicap in five of their last six matches.

Wales have scored only eight first-half tries in 2011. In contrast they have scored 19 tries in the second half.

Fiji

Fiji have nothing left to play for.

Tonga's defeat to Canada saw Fiji move up one place in the IRB world rankings from their lowest position ever. Fiji now sit in 16th spot in the world rankings. They were ranked tenth when they drew with Wales in Cardiff in November and ranked 11th when they knocked the Welsh out of the last tournament in the Stade La Beaujoire. The main handicap line that day was between 18 and 22 points in Fiji's favour.

Fiji spent 8.27mins in Samoa's 22 when the two sides met in Auckland yet only managed to score one try, in the 66th minute. Samu Domoni's men spent three of the last ten minutes of that encounter camped in Samoa's 22, and enjoyed 82 per cent of the territory but could not break the defensive line.

Tonga, Samoa, South Africa and New Zealand have all beaten Fiji by more than 16 points in 2011.

Fiji lost three scrums against Samoa.

Fiji have been handicap losers in all three of their matches in New Zealand.

Verenicki Goneva has scored four of Fiji's seven tries.

Half of the tries that Fiji have conceded during the tournament have been scored by forwards.

Match stats

Warren Gatland has named a powerful Welsh pack with Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones propping up Huw Bennett. It is a strong side, and will be lead by Sam Warburton. Former skipper Ryan Jones plays, while the backline will be marshalled by Rhys Priestland at fly-half.

Fiji look to have thrown in the towel. Coach Samu Domoni has made ten changes to the side that faced Samoa in the Pacific islands face off. Captain Deacon Manu is out, although Domoni has named 17 players in his 22 that play for foreign teams. Verenicki Goneva is on the bench.

Preview

Wales will have seen how both South Africa and Samoa disposed of Fiji and have named a team accordingly. Gethin Jenkins and Adam Jones will turn the screw up front, while Sam Warburton, Ryan Jones and Toby Faletau will slow ball down to limit the damage from Fiji's backs.

Samu Domoni fields a much-weakened team to that which failed to cope with the discipline of Samoa in Auckland and Wales could really run riot here.

Recommended Bet (1-5pt staking plan)
3pts Wales -15.5 on the match handicap

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Will Greenwood: Rugby World Cup Pool Predictions

Rugby World Cup / Will Greenwood / 01 September 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will's backing Richie McCaw to lead New Zealand to Pool A victory

"I expect England to beat Argentina and emerge victorious from Pool B."

With only a week to go before the big kick off, the Betfair ambassador assesses the Pools and picks his winners from each one...

Pool A

Winning in Wellington in 2003 was one of the highlights of my career but, generally, New Zealand don't lose at home. That's one of the reasons they're [1.76] favourites to win the World Cup and [1.12] to win Group A. Those odds are justifiably short. The bettor's instinct is to look for value but I don't see any in this Pool. Yes, New Zealand have choked in the past but they win comprehensively early on. They've always had power and dynamism and now they're a highly intelligent team too. France [7.0] have a great performance in them, and they have upset the All Blacks in previous tournaments, but I expect them to finish second and save their heroics for later. For Tonga, Japan and Canada, playing against the hosts will be a great learning experience.

Pool B

One of the main reasons for teams to win their Pool is to avoid New Zealand in the quarters and semi-finals. England [1.36] have extra impetus as they don't wish to meet the hosts in the next round. Of course, if you want to win, you have to beat the best, but it's still better to meet them later rather than sooner. I'll look ahead to England's opener next week but I expect the Red Rose to win and emerge victorious from Pool B. After that, it's Argentina [6.8] or Scotland [5.8] - the game between them on September 25 will be pivotal and, although I do think Georgia could cause both teams problems, it will determine who goes through. At this stage, I'd back the Pumas.

Pool C

This Pool is all about Australia [1.25] and Ireland [4.7]. I like the Aussies at the moment and Robbie Deans has assembled an exciting squad. David Pockock is a spectacular talent, who can match New Zealand's Richie McCaw, and new captain James Horwill could prove to be the player of the tournament. Ireland still have the hex on winning in the southern hemisphere. To beat Australia you need to destroy them up front and Ireland don't have the pack to do that. The Wallabies backline is full of wizardry and, given the chance, Digby Ioane and James O'Connor will run riot. I'm backing Australia to win Pool C with Ireland going through as runners-up.

Pool D

Wales [5.3] need to bring their body armour and hard hats if they are to emerge from the Group of Death. It's going be super tough for Warren Gatland's men but Sam Warburton is a class act, an excellent choice as captain, and they should have enough to get through. Just. Gatland must motivate his players to approach the World Cup as a knock-out tournament. In the past, they've been sloppy in the Pool stage and only woken up in the last eight. With Samao [16.0] desperate to progress, there's no time for a slow start and the match between the two sides on September 18 will be tight, decisive. South Africa [1.29] may have had a poor Tri-Nations but Peter de Villiers' squad boasts star names and his policy of resting them might yet pay off. They will go through as Pool winners.

*

Follow Will's advice on Betting.Betfair throughout the Rugby World Cup - next week he previews England's opener against Argentina.

You can follow him on Twitter here.

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Rugby League Tips: Untested defences = big points scored

Rugby League / Stuart Jones / 10 June 2011 / Leave a Comment

Brett Hodgson adds attacking glitz to the Exiles

"I expect the Exiles to come out on top, but a handicap of six points isn’t far off the mark in my book, so given the limited time the sides’ have had to prepare their defence, combined with the attacking talent on display, over 46.5 points at [2.0] looks the call."

Stuart Jones looks at the Friday night special between England and Exiles as well as Bradford's Super League test against St Helens

The inaugural match-up between England and the Exiles takes place at Headingley on Friday evening and, with the RL marketing team on overtime since February, they will be bitterly disappointed if it's not close to a sell-out.

England have been rocked by injuries to two of their key playmakers, with James Roby (fractured eye-socket) and Danny Brough (ankle) both forced out of Steve McNamara's plans late on. Roby and Brough have been two of Super League's standout performers this season and both will be sorely missed, Brough's kicking game way ahead of anybody else's in the England ranks.

The concept of the Exiles is basically to pick the crème-de-la-crème of foreign Super League talent to provide a sterner test of our International side than the previous friendlies against France.

Brian McClennan has returned to coach the side and he has been able to pick a very strong 18-man squad, though it is a shame that the maximum three players from any one club rule has meant that Michael Monaghan was left out.

It's hard to pick too many weaknesses in the Exiles squad. Tony Puletua, David Faalago and Kylie Leulaui provide plenty of bulk in the forwards, and with Brett Hodgson and Rangi Chase in the backline, they won't lack for creativity.

I expect the Exiles to come out on top, but a handicap of six points isn't far off the mark in my book, so given the limited time the sides' have had to prepare their defence, combined with the attacking talent on display, over 46.5 points at [2.0] looks the call.

Not having a single player in the England squad speaks volumes about the downturn in the Bradford Bulls' fortunes over the last few seasons, though they are lucky to be facing an in-form St Helens side on the same weekend that the majority of their stars are involved in the International fixture.

How many players that backup from Friday's game will have a huge impact on the current handicap line of eight points, as will the participation of James Roby, who faces a race against time to be fit for Sunday afternoon.

The Bulls have managed to string a couple of wins together in recent weeks and put up a gutsy display as they lost narrowly to Wigan in the Challenge Cup despite being reduced to 12 men in the first half. Their defence looking more assured than it did earlier in the year.

Even if all of the Saints players involved in the Exiles game do figure at Odsal, it's hard to imagine that they will play that much of a part, or be at the top of their game, so the Bulls in the outright market is the best bet.

Recommended Bets
Back over 46.5 points in the England vs Exiles game @ [2.0]
Back Bradford Bulls in the outright market @ [2.7]

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Rugby League Betting: Wigan can restore English pride

Rugby League / Stuart Jones / 24 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

Will Warriors fans be celebrating on Sunday?

"Desire will be the telling factor between the sides on Sunday and I'm surprised to see Wigan odds against."

Stuart Jones believes the markets have got it wrong for the World Club Challenge and expects Wigan to become the first English side to win the match for three years. Meanwhile, Saints aim to maintain their impressive start...

English sides have enjoyed the lion's share of success in the World Club Challenge since it was reintroduced in 2000, but the tide has begun to turn in recent years with Manly and Melbourne Storm ensuring the trophy has stayed Down Under for the last two seasons. This year's showdown is between Wigan and St George Illawarra Dragons and takes place at the former's DW stadium at 19:15 on Sunday.

It's obviously hard to prove, but it does seem to be the case that this competition is held in much higher regard in this country than it is by the Australians. The fact that Dragons coach Wayne Bennett was threatening not even to bother sending a team across due to a dispute over when the game was to be played adds some weight to that argument.

Wigan's reply to what they would have seen to be a disappointing draw with St Helens on the opening weekend was to travel across the Pennines and dish out a 44-10 thumping to Bradford at Odsal. Amos Roberts scored a brace of tries on his belated return to action and, touch wood, Michael Maguire should be able to name the same side at the DW stadium this weekend.

Unlike last year's winner Melbourne Storm, the Dragons have chosen not to play a warm-up game in England, deciding that a 28-14 win over Canterbury Bulldogs in the Mercury Challenge little over a week ago was sufficient to get them up to speed for Sunday's game. However, St George's preparations off the field haven't gone smoothly and they will have to overcome the absence of Wayne Bennett if they are to prove successful after their head coach was forced to return to Australia for family reasons earlier in the week.

I suspect that desire will be the telling factor between the sides on Sunday and, with an interrupted build-up far from ideal when going up against a side that will be as pumped up as the Warriors, I was surprised to see Wigan odds against in the outright market.

The first live game of the weekend comes from the Stobart Stadium on Friday evening and St Helens can continue their impressive start to season with victory over Warrington.

Saints fought back from 16-0 down to earn a deserved point against Wigan at the Millennium Magic weekend in round one and confirmed that promise with a very easy 56-22 win away at Salford, a couple of late scores arguably flattering the home side at the finish.

Whilst Royce Simmons is expected to be able to name James Graham and Paul Wellens in his side after missing out last Friday, Tony Smith will have to go with a similar line-up to one that scraped home against Hull KR, with centres Matt King and Chris Bridge both out for the foreseeable future.

With the exception of Lee Briers in the stand-off position, I can't see any area where Warrington have the edge and therefore will be siding with the home side to cover a handicap of four points.

Recommended bets:
Back Wigan to beat the St George Illawarra Dragons @ 2.08 in the outright market
Back St Helens -4.5 pts at 1.91 against the Warrington Wolves

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