South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.
Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6
It should be great occasion in Mendoz on Saturday and Argentina thoroughly deserve their Rugby Championship status. However, whether they can produce a performance that will please their fans is another matter, says Geoffrey Riddle.
Argentina v South Africa, Saturday 20:10
• At the World Cup Argentina played three teams ranked inside the world's top ten: England, Scotland and New Zealand. They scored 35 points in those three matches.
• Subsequently they have played Italy, France twice and South Africa scoring 76 points in those four matches.
• Argentina did not manage to beat any defenders last week in the 27-6 loss to South Africa. What's more they only had 37 per cent territory.
• In contrast, South Africa have been one of the best defensive teams in the world having only allowed England to score more than 20 points against them in the past 12 months.
• In those nine matches South Africa have conceded only eight tries, three of which were in the 36-27 defeat of England in Johannesburg in June.
• Santiago Phelan made just one change to the side that lost 27-6 last week to the Springboks. Martin Rodriguez, the Stade Francais player, replaced Luca Gonzalez Amorosino at fullback but then it was revealed that Juan Martin Hernandez suffered a torn leg muscle in a brutal training session.
• South Africa have some serious injury worries with Pierre Spies ruled out with a broken thumb, while Bryan Habana and Andries Bekker rolled their ankles and missed trainer earlier this week.
Match Preview
Oh to be in Mendoza this weekend for Argentina's debut Test at home against South Africa in the Rugby Championship. Any rugby fan worth his salt and a few thousand quid in the bank should consider it as it promises to be a wonderful occasion... on the pitch.
The home side fully deserve this historic Test after all of the sweat, tears and blood shed by previous Pumas players to get Argentina admitted to the sacred Southern Hemisphere clique but, as mentioned in last week's column, Argentina are barely better than Scotland right now.
As far as statistics go there is little to go on as teams as good as South Africa rarely make it to the depths of South America. What we can deduce, however, is that when teams as good as the Springboks take on teams as bad as Argentina they should be priced as favourites by around six to nine points, which at 8.5 is where Betfair have placed their handicap line.
Where there could be room for manoeuvre, however, is in the total points markets. According to my ratings, matches such as this should have a total points spread of around 41-44, but that is before you take into account Argentina's lamentable efforts to score not only last week, but going back 12 months.
Argentina simply cannot keep the scoreboard ticking over against the better teams. Currently their game plan and their lack of match practice at the highest level results in a lack of serious penetration.
Of course, they have some sublime players, but until the competition wears on, and provided they still have their wonderful spirit and outlook, that simply won't change.
Argentina of course have played only a handful of serious matches in 2012 and although they should improve from last week's run-out they should struggle to accumulate points, let alone cross the whitewash, especially without Hernandez.
Recommended Bet
Back South Africa -8.5 points @ 1.865/6
There are no comments on this article.
No comments:
Post a Comment