Financial betting: What's going to move the markets this week?

"There will be plenty of interesting activity on the financial markets linked to all sorts of industries over the coming days."

A short week thanks to the bank holiday weekend but a busy one nonetheless, with plenty of trading statements and reports on the way...

This week's company reports

Plenty of trading statements are scheduled for publication over the next few days, so spread bettors with a Tradefair Plus account should keep an eye out to see how they will affect how their bets pan out.

On Tuesday, Antofagasta Holdings, Bunzl, Regus and WPP publish their Q2 results, while statements from Stagecoach and Petrofac are also lined up.

Wednesday sees the release of second quarter statements from Cape and Kenmare Resources, while interim results will come from John Laing Infrastructure Fund and Talvivaara Mining Company.

In addition, half-year results from 888 Holdings and annual results from Air New Zealand will also be published. Other names issuing trading statements tomorrow include Cambian, APR Energy, Chime Communications, Evraz, Grafton, Foxtons, Polymetal International and Hansteen.

Thursday is a particularly busy day, with the likes of Melrose Industries, Arrow Global, Gulf Marine Services, IP Group, Hays, Marshalls and Lamprell lifting the lid on their recent performances.

Trading statements from Nostrum Oil & Gas, Paddy Power, Playtech, Petropavlovsk, Salamander Energy, SOCO International, STV Group, Servelec, UNITE and Xaar also lined up for publication.

Finally, Friday will see releases from Chesnara, Berendsen, Bwin.party, Headlam, Computacenter, Lavendon, Stobart and The Restaurant Group.

So it looks as if there will be plenty of interesting activity on the financial markets linked to all sorts of industries over the coming days.

Housing market data to be issued

A few upcoming reports should help us get a good idea of what conditions in the housing market are like now - which might offer an insight into how well the wider economy is doing at the moment.

On Wednesday, the Council of Mortgage Lenders releases its Regional Lending Trends report for London, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, which contains figures for the second quarter of 2014.

Meanwhile, the Land Registry publishes its market trend data for July 2014 and its monthly house price index.

Wednesday also sees the release of the Nationwide Building Society's latest house price figures for August 2014.

Of course, the summer is traditionally a quiet time for the housing market, so the figures might not necessarily be entirely reflective of conditions in the market and the prevailing mood among consumers right now.

Nevertheless, they could still offer some valuable pointers as to which way the sector is likely to go as we move into autumn.

Other reports set for release

A number of other reports that are scheduled for publication this week could be useful for spread bettors who are monitoring conditions in certain industries, as well as the wider economy.

For example, the CBI will release its Quarterly Distributive Trades Survey on Thursday. On the same day, BEA publishes its second quarter estimates of gross domestic product, while the European Central Bank will issue its national balance sheet of euro area monetary financial institutions, excluding the eurosystem, for July 2014.

The week rounds off with the Office for National Statistics publishing its provisional results for business investment in the second quarter of the year, as well as an economic briefing report from the British Retail Consortium.

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Golf Betting: Markets are over-reacting to early season form

/ Paul Krishnamurty / 31 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Jason Day at 37-1? It would be rude not to!

"Unlike Abu Dhabi, which played tougher than usual and rewarded accuracy over power, Doha GC has a reputation for favouring the biggest hitters. Day is more than simply a bomber, but is certainly seen to best effect on such open layouts."

Beware early-season judgements and punish over-reacting layers is Paul Krishnamurty's message this week, noting huge prices available on two huge talents - Jason Day and Gary Woodland - either side of the Atlantic

One feature of the new golf order, where both tours boast unprecedented strength in depth, is a market that repeatedly over-reacts to the most recent result. The 2012 season is only three weeks old. Most top players have played only once and could be forgiven for using it as an opportunity to shake off any winter rust. Hardly a time, then, to be drawing strong conclusions or writing people off. Yet in both of this week's events, there is at least one example of a top-class player available at vastly inflated odds compared to their seasonal debut.

First, Jason Day in the Qatar Masters. Here is a player widely tipped to sweep all before him. He was runner-up on both his Masters and US Open debuts last year - an unprecedented achievement in majors that generally reward experience. He's ranked tenth in the world already, placing him third best in this company. Before last week's Abu Dhabi Championship, against a stronger line-up, he was amongst the leading handful in the betting. Yet as a consequence of missing one cut, Day is relegated to 11th place in the betting at [38.0], nearly four times the odds of the favourite.

Such a reaction makes even less sense given the nature of this course, which should be ideal. Unlike Abu Dhabi, which played tougher than usual and rewarded accuracy over power, Doha GC has a reputation for favouring the biggest hitters. It is no coincidence that huge, wild-hitting Alvaro Quiros has form figures of 2/2/1 here. Day is more than simply a bomber, but is certainly seen to best effect on such open layouts. Historically, the two key stats here have been driving distance and putting average, and according to the excellent course compatibility stats at www.tour-tips.com, Jason ranks second and fourth in those categories.

It's a similar story in the US, where Gary Woodland is enormous at [60.0] to win the Waste Management Phoenix Open.

Again, we have a vast bank of course form to study at Scottsdale, which suggest Gary has the credentials to thrive. Scottsdale isn't so much of a big-hitters track, but bombers have often taken it apart. For instance JB Holmes, who usually reserves his best for courses that reward his power game, has won this title twice. A further clue is birdie average, as Scottsdale is the type of risk-reward layout where frequent birdies are essential to offset the inevitable bogies. Year in, year out, the leaderboard reflects those stats.

Woodland scores very well on both counts, ranking fifth for driving distance amongst this lot, and 13th for birdies over the past 12 months. More significant than any performance stats, however, is the fact Woodland finished fifth here last year, on one of his earliest PGA Tour starts. On that basis, Scottsdale is more suitable than the Hawaii track where he flopped first time out, or the quirky Torrey Pines, where he failed last week for the second year running.

Gary really improved as that rookie season wore on, missing only one cut after May, registering top-25s in all four majors, winning his maiden title and landing the World Cup alongside Matt Kuchar. Both myself and Dan Geraghty have marked him as one of the players to follow in 2012. Keep the faith. Odds like this week's [60.0] will soon be a thing of the past.

Recommended Bets
Qatar Masters
Back Jason Day to win @ [38.0]
Back Jason Day for top-five finish @ [9.0]

Waste Management Phoenix Open
Back Gary Woodland to win @ [60.0]
Back Gary Woodland for top-five finish @ [11.0]

It's going to be a blustery week in Qatar, so who has the best draw? And what does it take to win around Doha? Read Steve's event preview here......

Beware early-season judgements and punish over-reacting layers is Paul Krishnamurty's message this week, noting huge prices available on two huge talents - Jason Day and Gary Woodland - either side of the Atlantic...

Ignore Peter Hanson's final round collapse in Abu Dhabi says Mike Norman, the Swede is still playing well and is one of this week's Form Guide's three suggested players....

As if there wasn't enough drama in Abu Dhabi, with Robert Rock holding Tiger Woods and Co at bay, last night's Farmers Insurance Open produced an unbelievable finish......

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Grand National 2011: Simon Rowlands on the Specials Markets

Grand National Betting / Simon Rowlands / 05 April 2011 / Leave a Comment

The Chair at Aintree

"There is usually little incident from the first Canal Turn (fence eight) to the third obstacle on the final circuit (fence 19), with the exception of the formidable "Chair" (fence 15)."

Regular Betting.Betfair blogger Simon Rowlands give you a couple of clues as to how to make money on the Grand National without backing the winner...

The number of ways in which you can win and lose money at betting seems to increase with every year, and the market managers at Betfair are at their most creative when it comes to a race of the magnitude of the John Smith's Grand National, due to be run at 16:15 this Saturday at Aintree.

In addition to win markets, place markets, match bets and the like, there are likely to be all sorts of 'Specials' markets (due to be live by Midday on Thursday). You don't have to be a once-a-year punter to enjoy getting stuck into these, but it does help to know a bit of history to inform your choices.

The simple advice where "winning weight" (under 11-0 or 11-0 and over) and "Irish winner" (a simple yes/no proposition) are concerned is to derive a fair price from the win market, splitting the field into qualifiers in each category and summing the percentage chance of each.

Percentage chance is 100/P, where P is the prevailing Betfair decimal price. For instance, odds of 6.4 give a percentage of 100/6.4 = 15.6. Summed percentages of, say, 60 imply fair decimal odds for all qualifiers combined of 100/60 = 1.67.

Winning weights have been historically low, with seven of the last ten winners coming in at "unders". But this trend is very much subject to change regarding how the handicap is compiled, and two of the three "overs" have come in the last two years.

Fair odds for "winning distance" and "number of finishers" cannot be inferred directly from the win market, but past Grand Nationals are likely to be a decent guide. Six of the last ten winners on good or good to soft going have won by less than 6 lengths (even after adjustment has been made for different ways of returning margins over the years); three have won by between 6 and 12 lengths; and just one has won by more than 12 lengths.

The number of finishers, again for the last ten races run on good or good to soft going, has varied between nine and 21, with three at less than 12 finishers, six at 12 to 18 finishers and just one at more than 18 finishers.

The state of the going is important where finishers are concerned, with the softer the going the fewer the completions in general. The 1998 and 2001 Grand Nationals were run on bottomless ground and resulted in just six and four finishers respectively.

The ground at Aintree at the start of the week was described as "good to soft, good in places" on the National course and the long-term weather forecast is for little rain. A close(ish) finish and a mid-range number of completers deserve to be favourites in their respective markets as things stand.

There is also the prospect of getting a bet on even after things have got under way. The Grand National may seem like an example of utter and unpredictable chaos once the tape goes up, but the Form Book even manages to give guidance here.

You can expect departures to occur with a degree of predictability, but do be mindful of the possibility of a Black Swan event like the one in 1967 that put paid to all bar the 100/1-winner Foinavon at the 23rd fence which now bears his name!

The accompanying spreadsheet shows the non-completion rate at the various obstacles for the last ten Grand Nationals run on good and good to soft going. "Non-completion" means horses still in the race that attempted and failed to clear the obstacle in question. A faller late in the race is highly likely to be a bigger percentage of the remaining runners than one early on.

Grand National non completions

The figures show that Becher's Brook on the second circuit is the toughest obstacle, followed by the very first fence (at which point the runners and riders, on edge after the extended preliminaries, are often going too fast). There is usually little incident from the first Canal Turn (fence eight) to the third obstacle on the final circuit (fence 19), with the exception of the formidable "Chair" (fence 15).

There is little likelihood of a departure in the closing stages with the marked exception of fence 27, the fourth-last, an obstacle without a big reputation but with a ditch on the take-off side that is six-feet wide. Get over this and your horse is highly likely to finish the race if still in contention.

Hopefully, these figures may act as some guide if you are trying to weigh up the likelihood of the expected or unexpected occurring once the race has been turned "in play".

Champion trainer Paul Nicholls is yet to win the sport's biggest handicap prize, the Grand National, but this year he has made 10 entries in a bid to end that hoodoo. Here is Paul's assessment of all his current Grand National entries...

Jack Houghton, author of Winning on Betfair for Dummies, tells you how to place your first bet on Betfair -- in five easy steps....

All the info for the big day at Aintree...

Betfair website