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/ Keith Melrose / 05 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Imperial Commander and Kauto Star look set to cross swords for a third time in the Gold Cup
"With a year on his two main rivals and an excellent record in chases at Cheltenham... Imperial Commander is very much a justified favourite to defend his crown."
The Cheltenham showpiece; jumps racing's Blue Riband; the Gold Cup: whatever you call it, the feature on the last day of the Cheltenham Festival remains the most prestigious race at the most prestigious jumps meeting in the world. With six weeks to go until the big day, Keith Melrose takes a look at the main contenders.
I doubt it's passed you by, but it's worth reiterating that we're going through something of a golden age among the staying chasers. This time last year, we were celebrating how lucky we were to have the prospect of a dual Hennessy winner (Denman) and a bona fide legend of the turf (Kauto Star) toughing it out in the Gold Cup for the third consecutive year. Neither won in the end, but there's no doubting that Imperial Commander gatecrashed the party rather than ruined it, his seven-length beating of Denman almost on a par with Kauto Star's eye-watering performance in accounting for the same rival by thirteen lengths twelve months earlier.
A fragile horse in his younger days, Imperial Commander is still arguably best fresh, which is trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies' justification for sending him to Cheltenham directly from the Betfair Chase at Haydock in November (which he won in pleasing enough fashion from Tidal Bay), though he would apparently have run in the rearranged King George had the entries been opened back up. With a year on his two main rivals and an excellent record in chases at Cheltenham (five from six, including the Paddy Power and Ryanair alongside his Gold Cup triumph), Imperial Commander is very much a justified favourite to defend his crown.
Before his days as a seemingly perennial bridesmaid in the race, Denman was a Gold Cup winner himself, bulldozing his rivals, including an off-colour Kauto Star, into submission when taking the 2008 renewal. Although injury punctuated his campaign the following season, Denman has confirmed himself as good as ever over the last fifteen months, scoring his second Hennessy off top weight and finishing a creditable third from a BHA mark of 182 in the latest renewal of that race either side of his finishing runner-up to Imperial Commander. He is another who'll reportedly head straight to Cheltenham after his main autumn target, though with a solid record fresh Denman should have no fitness concerns and there seems no reason why he can't put up a bold show on his fourth attempt at the Gold Cup.
Ream upon ream of speculation and pontification has surrounded Kauto Star since he was foiled in his attempt to win a fifth consecutive King George last month, so there's little that this piece can offer which hasn't been said already. We really don't buy the excuse that Cheltenham suits Kauto Star better than Kempton these days but, if as suggested, infection was behind his reverse at Kempton, then current odds of [9.2] could prove tempting nearer the time, as the only member of Timeform House's editorial staff who can remember a better chaser will be drawing his pension in just over a year's time!
If any horse is to infiltrate the 'Big Three', then the figures dictate that Long Run is easily the most likely candidate. The Nicky Henderson-trained French bred put up a highly impressive performance in winning this season's King George VI Chase, producing a much-improved round of jumping to beat stablemate Riverside Theatre by twelve lengths. The manner in which Long Run has jumped on both tries around Cheltenham leaves some doubt, while he's still got something to find on Imperial Commander, Denman and a peak-condition Kauto Star, so the feeling is he's already short enough in the betting at [7.8].
The rest all have plenty to find on form, and the current prices of Pride of Dulcote [18.0] and Midnight Chase [25.0] in particular are pretty difficult to fathom with that considered, but if one is capable of bridging the gap we think it could be Diamond Harry. This corner of West Yorkshire has always been a stronghold of Diamond Harry support, right from his novice hurdling days, but even we've had to temper our enthusiasm from time to time in the face of the quirks he's displayed. Good things come to those who wait, however, and Nick Williams' charge finally revealed some of his latent talent when landing the Hennessy in November, jumping with aplomb and coping easily with Denman's turning up the pace (albeit in receipt of 26 lb) to beat Burton Port despite idling. With such a good record fresh and the prospect of more to come, Diamond Harry is a credible contender for top honours, though the odds of [11.0] currently on offer suggest we're by no means alone in that assertion.
If we learned anything from Festival Trials Day and Grands Crus' blistering performance in the Cleeve Hurdle, it's that there's no such thing as a 'banker' for a Festival Grade 1 with six weeks still to go. That said, such is the quality among the current crop of staying chasers that it's hard to envisage many permeating the upper echelons of the division, and those with the potential to do so have already had as much factored into their price. Therefore, we see no reason to look past Imperial Commander, who looks set to have everything in his favour as he bids for a second Gold Cup. We also think there is some value to be had about Denman, whose suitability to the course and colossal stature among his contemporaries are both assured.
Recommendations
Back Imperial Commander @ [4.9] and Denman @ [9.4] to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup.
There's a good quality card at Leopardstown in Ireland, but Musselburgh also features a couple of really interesting contests, including the Scottish Triumph Hurdle......
Timeform run the rule over the next week's racing, which starts with an all-star card at Leopardstown on Sunday and ends with another at Newbury on Saturday......
The Irish Hennessy meeting at Leopardstown is the last stepping stone before the Cheltenham Festival for many leading ante-post fancies from across the Irish Sea and the four Grade 1 events on the card all promise to be high-class renewals....
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