Match Previews 
/ Ed Hawkins / 20 February 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Shane Watson could be a good bet for 50
"Of the 11 instances of associate nations beating Test-ranked sides at
World Cups, nine occurred when the underdogs were defending"
Ed Hawkins would like to back the Zimbabweans for glory in Ahmedabad on Monday but a more cautious approach is advised
London start time: 09.00
Team news
Ricky Ponting plays his first game after recovering from a broken finger while Steve Smith is also fit following a hip problem. Jason Krejza will be the main spinner, though and Australia must decide whether Shaun Tait or Doug Bollinger claims the final fast-bowling spot.
Seam bowler Ed Rainsford was injured in Zimbabwe's final warm-up match - a four-wicket loss to Ireland - meaning Tinashe Panyangara has a chance to come into the XI.
Venue and conditions
The average first-innings total in the last 10 ODIs at Ahmedabad's Sardar Patel stadium is a massive 282. Six sides have passed 300 or more in those matches. Zimbabwe were bowled out for 85 there against West Indies in 2006 and 141 against Sri Lanka just a few weeks later. If Australia bat first, check prices for them to breach 300.
Match odds
Australia have a weakness against spin bowling it would appear. In their warm-up matches against India and South Africa they have been strangled by the spinners and on the face of it, Zimbabwe look capable of tying them in knots, too. The slow-bowling of Prosper Utseya, Ray Price and Graeme Cremer could be a potential threat.
But what stops us supporting Zimbabwe at [21.00] outright - Australia are [1.04] - is that the pitch doesn't appear to suit spin. Of the top 10 wicket-takers in the last 10 ODIs, only three are twirlers. And the surface looks so good for batting that it seems hard to see Australia getting bogged down, especially with Shane Watson so dangerous at the top of the order.
The best advice is to back Zimbabwe only if they bat first because they should be capable of runs. Once the market recognises they are no mugs with the bat, a back-to-lay should present itself.
Of the 11 instances of associate nations beating Test-ranked sides at World Cups, nine occurred when the underdogs were defending
Top batsman - Australia
Runs have come at the top of the order in matches at this ground so Watson is an understandable favourite at [3.15]. You can also back him for a 50 at [2.00]. He has had 16 scores between 30 and 70 in the 27 matches he has played in the past 13 months. Ponting is [5.00] for top bat and [1.90] for a 50.
Top batsman - Zimbabwe
Brendan Taylor is head and shoulders above the rest of his batting teammates in terms of talent. In the last 12 months he has 723 runs. Tatendu Taibu, his nearest rival, has 574. Taylor is [4.00] for honours while one would expect Taibu to be a little bigger than [4.70] given the statistics. Taylor is [2.40] for a 50.
Featured market
There have been four centuries in the last two matches and in an immature market you can get [1.70] about a fifth.
Best bets: back-to-lay Zimbabwe if they bat first at around [18.00], back S Watson for a 50 at [2.00]
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