February 12, 2011

Follow The Money: Nicholls is unlikely to jump for joy with American Trilogy

Follow the Money RSS / Follow The Money / 11 February 2011 / Leave a Comment

008 Follow the Money

"Pere Blanc has been backed from [9.0] in to [5.5]."

Today's Follow The Money movers all come from the day's main meeting at Kempton...


Today's negative comes in the shape of American Trilogy in the rather aptly named "betfair.com/paulnicholls Beginners chase" at 14:05. Trading at just over the [3.0] mark early on, Nicholls' charge has been allowed to drift to [3.75] which, for a horse rated at least 19lbs higher than his rivals over hurdles, tells us all we need to know about his experience over the larger obstacles to date. A faller at both Plumpton and Wincanton, American Trilogy will need to brush up his jumping given that the Kempton fences are no less forgiving and it is not, in the circumstances, surprising to see the layers taking him on.

In the 15:10, Pere Blanc, beaten a total of 147 lengths in his last three novice hurdles, has been backed from [9.0] in to [5.5]. Given the fact that David Arbuthnot's gelding landed a bumper at the track over two miles, today's money for his step up in trip for his handicap debut is surely significant. That and the benefit of his previous hurdle runs must mean that an improved performance can be expected from Pere Blanc today.

Our final mover comes in the 16:20 where Soixante has been supported from [10.0] in to [5.8]. Whenever the name " A P McCoy" appears for an outside stable it should make punters look closely at the booking, no more so than for Henrietta Knight where the combination enjoys a record at Kempton of four wins and two seconds from just seven runners. One of those wins was Soixante's victory last February off this mark of 123, albeit over a trip almost half-a-mile shorter than today's and with no going issues to contend with we should see this son of Old Vic go close today.



Recommended bets:

Lay American Trilogy @ [3.75] Kempton 14.05
Back Pere Blanc @ [5.5] Kempton 13.10
Back Soixante @ [5.8] Kempton 14.20

Timeform look ahead to the weekend's best racing......

Timeform go through the field for the season's most valuable handicap hurdle......

All the betting moves ahead of the evening racing at Wolverhampton...


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