Premier League 
/ Gary Boswell / 02 March 2011 / Leave a Comment 
Not even the fabulous Scott Parker can keep West Ham up, according to Gary Boswell
"The straightforward back for me at this stage is on West Ham at 2.0. The Hammers gave themselves a huge fillip with the win over Liverpool but their next four includes Spurs and Bolton away and Stoke and Manchester United at home and I don’t see any more three pointers in there."
He's looked at the fixtures, he's predicted the results and he's done the maths. Now Gary Boswell tells us who he expects to be playing Championship football next season.
You can't say you come from the Black Country unless you know how to moan about Albion and Wolves. That's a truism I grew up with at the Hawthorns and two weeks ago in the Hen & Chickens on Wolverhampton Road I was sipping a pint of Banks' with the Baggies fans reliving my rite of passage and agreeing how we were doing our usual thing and going down again. This time at least we were taking Wolves with us! Sixth at the start of November, bottom but one by end of Feb.
Enter Roy Hodgson and a few lessons in how to defend. Eleven men behind the ball for long periods at the Brittania on Monday night and Scott Carson only put his goal kick straight into touch four times. He made no other ricks. We got a point and maybe the Baggies are staying up after all!
The Premier League relegation market has remained fascinating throughout and reaches its critical phase now. You've been able to argue for most of the season that any one of ten or eleven sides could go down and it's still the case that all those below Newcastle in ninth are mathematically vulnerable. Everton, Fulham and Villa in particular only need to put together a run of three defeats to get themselves dragged into it. Time to get the four game projection chart out and see where we are at in mid April and whether there aren't a few juicy Back-to-Lays to be had.
Fulham are quoted at [14.5] to be relegated and face a tough next three where a mere two points is conceivable but the one to really interest is Aston Villa at [32.0] with their next four games being Bolton and Everton away and Wolves and Newcastle at home. A lot depends in this exercise on 'guesstimation' of course but I could see just two points from that haul as well given that the Wolves game will be a potboiler and could easily go against them. That would bring Villa into mid-April on 35 points with potentially only Fulham and the four WWWWs beneath them and the price will then have contracted considerably. It looks a good play to me with the proviso that we do another four game projection at that point and see whether or not they really could go down!
I expect that theory to be quite popular in the Hen and Chickens!
Realistically of course the three relegation slots do look to concern Wigan,Wolves, West Ham and West Brom and of those four, Wigan and West Brom look to have the toughest next four games. Wigan face Man City and Chelsea away and stay bottom on my projection, looking all but doomed and not worth betting consideration at what is already a shortish price. Albion have to somehow find four points from Birmingham and Sunderland away and Arsenal and Liverpool at home but with Hodgson at the helm you feel there is a win and a draw in there somewhere.
Such is the faith the man has already engendered! [2.14] the Baggies to go down reflects the general view of their vulnerability but with a point in hand over Wolves, I see no reason for McCarthy's men to be longer at [2.4] when their next four includes Spurs and Everton at home and Newcastle and that trip to Villa away. Much depends on how the latter pans out but I score Wolves five points from that four games at best which means of course that nothing will be decided by mid April on which of the Black Country boys will drop! Tied on 33 points the pair!
The straightforward back for me at this stage is on West Ham at [2.0]. The Hammers gave themselves a huge fillip with the win over Liverpool but their next four includes Spurs and Bolton away and Stoke and Manchester United at home and I don't see any more three pointers in there. Their haul may be as low as two points so that they will be marooned with Wigan on 30 points come mid April. It will be tough (but not impossible of course!) to escape from there and it's the Hammers' nail that's in the coffin according to my chart!
THE BOZ's PREDICTED PREMIER LEAGUE TABLE FOR THE WEEK ENDING APRIL 9th - BOTTOM NINE PLACES ONLY:
Blackburn : 40 points
Birmingham: 37 points
Blackpool : 36 points
Aston Villa : 35 points
Fulham : 34 points
West Brom: 33 points
Wolves : 33 points
West Ham : 30 points
Wigan :30 points
THE BOZ's RECOMMENDED RELEGATION BETS:
2pts BACK WEST HAM to be relegated at [2.0]
1pt BACK to LAY ASTON VILLA to be relegated at [32.0]
He's looked at the fixtures, he's predicted the results and he's done the maths. Now Gary Boswell tells us who he expects to be playing Championship football next season....
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